Ukraine 23:51 - Sep 9 with 83933 views | MrSheen | Posted with some trepidation as I know Clive doesn’t like multis. Understandably overlooked by the national media, but it seems like the Russians are completely caving in, rope-a-doped as effectively as von Paulus in 1942. Who knows what this might lead to? | | | | |
Ukraine on 18:54 - Sep 10 with 3579 views | Wilkinswatercarrier |
Ukraine on 17:07 - Sep 10 by stevec | The only exports getting out of Odesa all seem destined for Chinese financed African countries. Think we’re all being played by China. Russia being hung out to dry militarily, European economies being financially battered by the ensuing energy crisis. There’s only one winner and it’s not Russia or the west. |
I think China has got it's own problems. China must have growth of 7% per year to create enough jobs for the students leaving full time education. Growth has slowed to 5%, youth unemployment has increased to 20% and climbing. Their housing market is on the verge of collapse. That and a zero Covid policy which is nuts with whole cities still being locked down. Think we will see Russia and China increasingly moving closer to each other to prop each other up. There will be only one winner and it will be the West in the long term. | | | |
Ukraine on 19:57 - Sep 10 with 3498 views | connell10 |
Ukraine on 12:18 - Sep 10 by Rs_Holy | That is exactly how I feel… I hope he doesn’t do anything really stupid if he is backed into a corner 🤞🤞🤞 |
That's why the West must leave Putin a way out , you corner a rat and anything can happen. | |
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Ukraine on 20:32 - Sep 10 with 3386 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
Ukraine on 18:54 - Sep 10 by Wilkinswatercarrier | I think China has got it's own problems. China must have growth of 7% per year to create enough jobs for the students leaving full time education. Growth has slowed to 5%, youth unemployment has increased to 20% and climbing. Their housing market is on the verge of collapse. That and a zero Covid policy which is nuts with whole cities still being locked down. Think we will see Russia and China increasingly moving closer to each other to prop each other up. There will be only one winner and it will be the West in the long term. |
Last week China overtook the US in life expectancy and India overtook the UK in GDP despite all that. The West has the capacity as consumers to sway the BRICS nations though in a positive way through soft power and equal trade deals but I can only see aircraft carriers and NATO expansion right now. Have been in Ireland for the last two days, and as I’m sure Brian Mc and others will confirm the number two talking point after the obvious is NATO membership, something I could never imagine a independent Ireland entertaining. Here’s to a swift end to the conflict in Ukraine. [Post edited 10 Sep 2022 20:57]
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Ukraine on 21:47 - Sep 10 with 3270 views | JimmyR |
Ukraine on 20:32 - Sep 10 by BazzaInTheLoft | Last week China overtook the US in life expectancy and India overtook the UK in GDP despite all that. The West has the capacity as consumers to sway the BRICS nations though in a positive way through soft power and equal trade deals but I can only see aircraft carriers and NATO expansion right now. Have been in Ireland for the last two days, and as I’m sure Brian Mc and others will confirm the number two talking point after the obvious is NATO membership, something I could never imagine a independent Ireland entertaining. Here’s to a swift end to the conflict in Ukraine. [Post edited 10 Sep 2022 20:57]
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India didn't overtake UK GDP per capita did they? Only nominally. Also China had the one child policy for 35 odd years - You can't really trust the numbers coming out them. But 35 years of that means they will have a very rapidly aging population | | | |
Ukraine on 22:07 - Sep 10 with 3203 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
Ukraine on 21:47 - Sep 10 by JimmyR | India didn't overtake UK GDP per capita did they? Only nominally. Also China had the one child policy for 35 odd years - You can't really trust the numbers coming out them. But 35 years of that means they will have a very rapidly aging population |
This response is the problem mate. | | | |
Ukraine on 22:22 - Sep 10 with 3184 views | SteveB | I'm far from an expert on this subject, however I may have experienced the realities of this situation more than most. There are a couple of people on this board, who know me, my family & understand how this "military operation" has been a right pain in the arris... I'm married to a Belarusian, my 2 boys were born in Belarus. My eldest has just turned 18 and has dual nationality (means feck all to Lukashenko) I spend my time travelling between Uk & Belarus - not easy with the current sanctions. Anyway, I have spent the last 3 months in and out of Belarus trying to persuade the Belarusian authorities to release my son from National Service, which is compulsory. 2 weeks ago, my son was ordered to attend the local Army recruitment office, he was issued with all his Belarusian Army paperwork and was ordered to travel to Minsk to join up with his new regiment and was told he would be in Ukraine after his 8-week training was completed. Long story short, he is here now with me in Windsor - after a 36-hour escape from Belarus, via 3 countries. As we left Vitebsk last week, there were dozens of trains, km's long loaded with tanks, troop carriers, missiles etc, heading southwards from Vitebsk in the direction of the Ukraine border, accompanied by thousands of young adults from Belarus who have nothing to do with this situation. Losing is not an option for Putin / Lukashenko. Regardless of the cost of life. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 10:20]
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Ukraine on 22:30 - Sep 10 with 3144 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
Ukraine on 22:22 - Sep 10 by SteveB | I'm far from an expert on this subject, however I may have experienced the realities of this situation more than most. There are a couple of people on this board, who know me, my family & understand how this "military operation" has been a right pain in the arris... I'm married to a Belarusian, my 2 boys were born in Belarus. My eldest has just turned 18 and has dual nationality (means feck all to Lukashenko) I spend my time travelling between Uk & Belarus - not easy with the current sanctions. Anyway, I have spent the last 3 months in and out of Belarus trying to persuade the Belarusian authorities to release my son from National Service, which is compulsory. 2 weeks ago, my son was ordered to attend the local Army recruitment office, he was issued with all his Belarusian Army paperwork and was ordered to travel to Minsk to join up with his new regiment and was told he would be in Ukraine after his 8-week training was completed. Long story short, he is here now with me in Windsor - after a 36-hour escape from Belarus, via 3 countries. As we left Vitebsk last week, there were dozens of trains, km's long loaded with tanks, troop carriers, missiles etc, heading southwards from Vitebsk in the direction of the Ukraine border, accompanied by thousands of young adults from Belarus who have nothing to do with this situation. Losing is not an option for Putin / Lukashenko. Regardless of the cost of life. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 10:20]
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All the best to you and your family mate. | | | |
Ukraine on 22:46 - Sep 10 with 3108 views | GloryHunter |
Ukraine on 22:22 - Sep 10 by SteveB | I'm far from an expert on this subject, however I may have experienced the realities of this situation more than most. There are a couple of people on this board, who know me, my family & understand how this "military operation" has been a right pain in the arris... I'm married to a Belarusian, my 2 boys were born in Belarus. My eldest has just turned 18 and has dual nationality (means feck all to Lukashenko) I spend my time travelling between Uk & Belarus - not easy with the current sanctions. Anyway, I have spent the last 3 months in and out of Belarus trying to persuade the Belarusian authorities to release my son from National Service, which is compulsory. 2 weeks ago, my son was ordered to attend the local Army recruitment office, he was issued with all his Belarusian Army paperwork and was ordered to travel to Minsk to join up with his new regiment and was told he would be in Ukraine after his 8-week training was completed. Long story short, he is here now with me in Windsor - after a 36-hour escape from Belarus, via 3 countries. As we left Vitebsk last week, there were dozens of trains, km's long loaded with tanks, troop carriers, missiles etc, heading southwards from Vitebsk in the direction of the Ukraine border, accompanied by thousands of young adults from Belarus who have nothing to do with this situation. Losing is not an option for Putin / Lukashenko. Regardless of the cost of life. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 10:20]
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Wow. Well done for getting your boy out, mate. And thanks for the insider info. | | | | Login to get fewer ads
Ukraine on 23:21 - Sep 10 with 3026 views | T_Block | The chinese communist party is totally occupied with giving its people enough food to avoid starvation ,they are not playing anyone.They have stopped phosphate exports to make sure they grow enough rice.There is lots of opinion they are in real trouble as their covid vaccine does not work at all so they are going from one lock-down to another to another. | | | |
Ukraine on 23:30 - Sep 10 with 3009 views | CLAREMAN1995 |
Ukraine on 12:05 - Sep 10 by ozexile | I just can't see how this will end. There's no way Putin will accept defeat. Which could leave only one devestating result. |
I thought he way dying of cancer and had not long left . There is zero chance he will use his nuclear weapons IMO but nobody knows his mind | | | |
Ukraine on 23:33 - Sep 10 with 3007 views | kensalriser |
Ukraine on 22:22 - Sep 10 by SteveB | I'm far from an expert on this subject, however I may have experienced the realities of this situation more than most. There are a couple of people on this board, who know me, my family & understand how this "military operation" has been a right pain in the arris... I'm married to a Belarusian, my 2 boys were born in Belarus. My eldest has just turned 18 and has dual nationality (means feck all to Lukashenko) I spend my time travelling between Uk & Belarus - not easy with the current sanctions. Anyway, I have spent the last 3 months in and out of Belarus trying to persuade the Belarusian authorities to release my son from National Service, which is compulsory. 2 weeks ago, my son was ordered to attend the local Army recruitment office, he was issued with all his Belarusian Army paperwork and was ordered to travel to Minsk to join up with his new regiment and was told he would be in Ukraine after his 8-week training was completed. Long story short, he is here now with me in Windsor - after a 36-hour escape from Belarus, via 3 countries. As we left Vitebsk last week, there were dozens of trains, km's long loaded with tanks, troop carriers, missiles etc, heading southwards from Vitebsk in the direction of the Ukraine border, accompanied by thousands of young adults from Belarus who have nothing to do with this situation. Losing is not an option for Putin / Lukashenko. Regardless of the cost of life. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 10:20]
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That must be a relief, to put it mildly! What do you think popular sentiment is in Belarus towards the regime and the war? | |
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Ukraine on 23:48 - Sep 10 with 2994 views | LythamR |
Ukraine on 23:30 - Sep 10 by CLAREMAN1995 | I thought he way dying of cancer and had not long left . There is zero chance he will use his nuclear weapons IMO but nobody knows his mind |
I take the opposite viewpoint, every day Putin stays in control increases the likelihood that he will deploy a nuclear option. Every advance made by the ukrainian forces increases the likelihood that nuclear options will be deployed, at battlefield level initially but it can go anywhere from there The only way this deescalates is if he is taken out or removed in the near future | | | |
Ukraine on 23:52 - Sep 10 with 2971 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
Ukraine on 23:21 - Sep 10 by T_Block | The chinese communist party is totally occupied with giving its people enough food to avoid starvation ,they are not playing anyone.They have stopped phosphate exports to make sure they grow enough rice.There is lots of opinion they are in real trouble as their covid vaccine does not work at all so they are going from one lock-down to another to another. |
None of that is true. | | | |
Ukraine on 23:54 - Sep 10 with 2981 views | Lblock |
Ukraine on 22:22 - Sep 10 by SteveB | I'm far from an expert on this subject, however I may have experienced the realities of this situation more than most. There are a couple of people on this board, who know me, my family & understand how this "military operation" has been a right pain in the arris... I'm married to a Belarusian, my 2 boys were born in Belarus. My eldest has just turned 18 and has dual nationality (means feck all to Lukashenko) I spend my time travelling between Uk & Belarus - not easy with the current sanctions. Anyway, I have spent the last 3 months in and out of Belarus trying to persuade the Belarusian authorities to release my son from National Service, which is compulsory. 2 weeks ago, my son was ordered to attend the local Army recruitment office, he was issued with all his Belarusian Army paperwork and was ordered to travel to Minsk to join up with his new regiment and was told he would be in Ukraine after his 8-week training was completed. Long story short, he is here now with me in Windsor - after a 36-hour escape from Belarus, via 3 countries. As we left Vitebsk last week, there were dozens of trains, km's long loaded with tanks, troop carriers, missiles etc, heading southwards from Vitebsk in the direction of the Ukraine border, accompanied by thousands of young adults from Belarus who have nothing to do with this situation. Losing is not an option for Putin / Lukashenko. Regardless of the cost of life. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 10:20]
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Just wanted to say fair play for escaping that to you and your lad. I had three Belarusian lads working for me years ago. They were masquerading as Ukrainians at the time and, despite being the toughest Mo Fo’s I’ve ever known, were shit scared of being found out and sent back. The stories they told us were absolutely brutal in respect of the regime and zero civil rights. They absolutely hated the Russians and lived their lives over there in fear of death squads (caveat – possibly because they weren’t angels themselves). Really opened my eyes up to how other people have to live and how lucky we are here. Christ they could dig a trench an all…. I could really do with them now!!! | |
| Cherish and enjoy life.... this ain't no dress rehearsal |
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Ukraine on 23:55 - Sep 10 with 2978 views | JimmyR |
Ukraine on 22:07 - Sep 10 by BazzaInTheLoft | This response is the problem mate. |
What’s that supposed to mean? | | | |
Ukraine on 00:16 - Sep 11 with 2936 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
Ukraine on 23:55 - Sep 10 by JimmyR | What’s that supposed to mean? |
It’s denialism rooted in chauvinism and it’s a really unhelpful attitude for the West to have. You can quibble about GDP figures if you want, but it’s inevitable. All the worst aspects of Modi and the CCP can’t be tackled the way they have been over the last 300 years. Sorry, I’ve gone off track and forgotten this is a football forum. | | | |
Ukraine on 00:20 - Sep 11 with 2946 views | MrSheen |
Ukraine on 22:22 - Sep 10 by SteveB | I'm far from an expert on this subject, however I may have experienced the realities of this situation more than most. There are a couple of people on this board, who know me, my family & understand how this "military operation" has been a right pain in the arris... I'm married to a Belarusian, my 2 boys were born in Belarus. My eldest has just turned 18 and has dual nationality (means feck all to Lukashenko) I spend my time travelling between Uk & Belarus - not easy with the current sanctions. Anyway, I have spent the last 3 months in and out of Belarus trying to persuade the Belarusian authorities to release my son from National Service, which is compulsory. 2 weeks ago, my son was ordered to attend the local Army recruitment office, he was issued with all his Belarusian Army paperwork and was ordered to travel to Minsk to join up with his new regiment and was told he would be in Ukraine after his 8-week training was completed. Long story short, he is here now with me in Windsor - after a 36-hour escape from Belarus, via 3 countries. As we left Vitebsk last week, there were dozens of trains, km's long loaded with tanks, troop carriers, missiles etc, heading southwards from Vitebsk in the direction of the Ukraine border, accompanied by thousands of young adults from Belarus who have nothing to do with this situation. Losing is not an option for Putin / Lukashenko. Regardless of the cost of life. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 10:20]
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Fascinating stuff, well done for getting your boy out. When you say losing isn’t an option for Lukashenka, does that mean that he can’t back down, or that he daren’t take a risk that leads to defeat? He seems to have been dragging his feet to the frustration of the Russians, knowing that the patience of his people is limited. | | | |
Ukraine on 00:24 - Sep 11 with 2940 views | Boston |
Ukraine on 00:16 - Sep 11 by BazzaInTheLoft | It’s denialism rooted in chauvinism and it’s a really unhelpful attitude for the West to have. You can quibble about GDP figures if you want, but it’s inevitable. All the worst aspects of Modi and the CCP can’t be tackled the way they have been over the last 300 years. Sorry, I’ve gone off track and forgotten this is a football forum. |
What's new? | |
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Ukraine on 00:33 - Sep 11 with 2922 views | SteveB |
Ukraine on 23:33 - Sep 10 by kensalriser | That must be a relief, to put it mildly! What do you think popular sentiment is in Belarus towards the regime and the war? |
The people of Belarus are, without a doubt - the nicest people you'll ever meet. Oppressed from the last true European dictator, allegedly - according to western press. There is truth in that. The uncle of, my wife has just served a 2-year prison sentence as he was the head of a tv company in Vitebsk that broadcast anti- Lukashenko protests in 2020. Popular sentiment? It's a really hard call for the people of Belarus. 3 sisters, Belarus, Russia & Ukraine. It's all they have known since the old days. It's a 60/40 split against Ukraine in my experience. | | | |
Ukraine on 00:39 - Sep 11 with 2917 views | MrSheen |
Ukraine on 00:16 - Sep 11 by BazzaInTheLoft | It’s denialism rooted in chauvinism and it’s a really unhelpful attitude for the West to have. You can quibble about GDP figures if you want, but it’s inevitable. All the worst aspects of Modi and the CCP can’t be tackled the way they have been over the last 300 years. Sorry, I’ve gone off track and forgotten this is a football forum. |
There is a genuine demographic problem in China. Since the one-child problem was abandoned, the number of annual births has actually fallen, from 16m to less than 10m, clearly below replacement rate in a population of c1.4bn. Some of it is Covid related - delayed marriages, reluctance to get pregnant when hospitals are locked down, but some are familiar in East Asia and beyond…women have a better perceived quality of life without children than with them. The strategic implications of this have shifted from the “Thucydides theorem” a rising power will inevitably clash with a declining one (Athens v Sparta) to the Wilhelmite theory, after a pre WW1 Germany…a power that thinks it is about to go into relative decline will force a conflict before it’s too late for them to win. China must also be nervous that they so obviously threw their lot in with Russia, who have proved unexpectedly feeble, rather maintaining a strategic ambiguity that would have earned them a quiet life. Russia has nowhere to go and will become their economic colony, but China must be worried about being distrusted as a partner by the rich world, as well as all the crap kit they’ve bought. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 0:56]
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Ukraine on 00:53 - Sep 11 with 2912 views | SteveB |
Ukraine on 00:20 - Sep 11 by MrSheen | Fascinating stuff, well done for getting your boy out. When you say losing isn’t an option for Lukashenka, does that mean that he can’t back down, or that he daren’t take a risk that leads to defeat? He seems to have been dragging his feet to the frustration of the Russians, knowing that the patience of his people is limited. |
Lukashenko / Belarus, is/are now totally reliant on the scraps fed to them from Mother Russia, which has lead to an escalation in the cost of living. Sanctions imposed on them after the aircraft hi-jacking have resulted in zero options for them. The people of Belarus are pissed that Lukashenko has dragged them into this situation by allowing troops to travel into & through Belarus into Northen Ukraine. They are really pissed that Putin got them involved. Lukashenko is a Putin puppet. He may appear to disagree, but will always side with Russia. Free gas anyone? My boy has gone through all that, all he wants is a day out in X Block. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 1:11]
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Ukraine on 03:46 - Sep 11 with 2833 views | VancouverHoop |
Ukraine on 23:48 - Sep 10 by LythamR | I take the opposite viewpoint, every day Putin stays in control increases the likelihood that he will deploy a nuclear option. Every advance made by the ukrainian forces increases the likelihood that nuclear options will be deployed, at battlefield level initially but it can go anywhere from there The only way this deescalates is if he is taken out or removed in the near future |
For that to happen it will require the military and/or intelligence elite deciding that their own positions and privileges are under existential threat, and that the only way those can be preserved is to jettison Putin. That could well happen, but it's aways down the road at the moment. | | | |
Ukraine on 07:53 - Sep 11 with 2679 views | Wilkinswatercarrier |
Ukraine on 00:39 - Sep 11 by MrSheen | There is a genuine demographic problem in China. Since the one-child problem was abandoned, the number of annual births has actually fallen, from 16m to less than 10m, clearly below replacement rate in a population of c1.4bn. Some of it is Covid related - delayed marriages, reluctance to get pregnant when hospitals are locked down, but some are familiar in East Asia and beyond…women have a better perceived quality of life without children than with them. The strategic implications of this have shifted from the “Thucydides theorem” a rising power will inevitably clash with a declining one (Athens v Sparta) to the Wilhelmite theory, after a pre WW1 Germany…a power that thinks it is about to go into relative decline will force a conflict before it’s too late for them to win. China must also be nervous that they so obviously threw their lot in with Russia, who have proved unexpectedly feeble, rather maintaining a strategic ambiguity that would have earned them a quiet life. Russia has nowhere to go and will become their economic colony, but China must be worried about being distrusted as a partner by the rich world, as well as all the crap kit they’ve bought. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 0:56]
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Spot on. What I find most interesting is that Putins invasion has clearly defined/ split the world again between the West and Authoritarian regimes (Russia, China, N Korea, Belarus) again. Since the fall of Communism the West thought it could deal with these countries and change them, clearly that was a huge mistake. The issue for the Authoritarian regimes is as the West pulls back economically (the trust issue), how are they going to continue to buy their own populations off? You can only suppress public anger for so long. At least we can vote the useless t**ts out to be replaced by a different set of useless t**ts. But, at least it makes us feel better! | | | |
Ukraine on 08:16 - Sep 11 with 2625 views | JimmyR |
Ukraine on 00:16 - Sep 11 by BazzaInTheLoft | It’s denialism rooted in chauvinism and it’s a really unhelpful attitude for the West to have. You can quibble about GDP figures if you want, but it’s inevitable. All the worst aspects of Modi and the CCP can’t be tackled the way they have been over the last 300 years. Sorry, I’ve gone off track and forgotten this is a football forum. |
If you have something to say or an opinion, then why don’t you come right out and say it instead of telling other people what they said i.e. if you got a point in relation to mine, then make sure it’s about the point I was making. I had 2 points: The first is that you are clearly no demographer/statistician. The second is that some of the economic data coming out of China cannot be relied upon. India’s GDP per Capita is about $1,900 the UK’s is over $40,000 or about 20:1. This is called a Ratio, it’s extremely useful for comparing relative sizes, rates of change, marginal differences and expressing them as one number so it’s much easier to see patterns over time. Even GDP per capita isn’t that useful without looking at the relative dispersion. Government Spending, Investment & Exports is one side Taxes, Savings, Imports is on the other — This is called the Balance of Payments. I’m going to assign a value of 10 for each of these apart from imports and exports as we can use the actual figures So: GS+I should Equal T+S — (X-M) This is how that reads for China 10 + 10 = 10 + 10 (-73) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/difference-in-the-value-of-goods-exported-to- Do you understand? Or do you want me to make it a bit clearer for you? A lot of China’s economic data simply does not add up. They’ll tell you the same things themselves, it’s a big problem for them. Now, not that you asked but I actually find China, their economy & the fact they lifted about 500m ppl out of poverty in half a generation fascinating. Likewise they halved air pollution (particulate matter not CO2) in Beijing in the last 5 years. As this is a football forum & its Sunday, I’m going to stick you on ignore (first person ever). Was I to make sweeping assumptions based on what you have said I would assume you to be an egotistical, self-righteous, ideological helmet who hasn’t got the balls to come out and own their own opinions — most likely because you bore the life out of people & you talk rubbish. I don’t have the time to get into why your comment about life expectancy is equally moronic but if there’s only 2 observations: 1 & 100 then the average is 50.5 — now extrapolate that and tell me why an orange is a melon. You comments are rooted in Denialism, pig ignorance & mathematical illiteracy. Anyway, I’m off to quibble about whether 20 or 1 is a bigger number while I shout at passing cars. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 8:33]
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Ukraine on 08:21 - Sep 11 with 2619 views | CiderwithRsie |
Ukraine on 00:39 - Sep 11 by MrSheen | There is a genuine demographic problem in China. Since the one-child problem was abandoned, the number of annual births has actually fallen, from 16m to less than 10m, clearly below replacement rate in a population of c1.4bn. Some of it is Covid related - delayed marriages, reluctance to get pregnant when hospitals are locked down, but some are familiar in East Asia and beyond…women have a better perceived quality of life without children than with them. The strategic implications of this have shifted from the “Thucydides theorem” a rising power will inevitably clash with a declining one (Athens v Sparta) to the Wilhelmite theory, after a pre WW1 Germany…a power that thinks it is about to go into relative decline will force a conflict before it’s too late for them to win. China must also be nervous that they so obviously threw their lot in with Russia, who have proved unexpectedly feeble, rather maintaining a strategic ambiguity that would have earned them a quiet life. Russia has nowhere to go and will become their economic colony, but China must be worried about being distrusted as a partner by the rich world, as well as all the crap kit they’ve bought. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 0:56]
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I have been wondering for some time whether the decision to more or less publicly underwrite Putin immediately before the war might undermine Xi's position, especially when combined with missteps over Covid in the last year or so. Communist systems are odd in that leaders can have the power of life and death and then suddenly find themselves out of power if the central committee (or whatever its called) turns on them - e.g. Kruschev. | | | |
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