| Is the lock down ending too soon? 04:59 - Jul 1 with 154676 views | Glyn1 |
That's basically it.
Thoughts please. [Post edited 1 Jul 2020 5:00]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:23 - Jul 2 with 3124 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:25 - Jul 1 by rockinjac |
Let’s cut to the chase if the Welsh Government had taken a liberal approach to lockdown you would have said look at the Welsh Government giving us freedom and not following the Authoritarian approach in England
Stop pretending you care about policy you only care about your end goal and creating division as all Nationalists do
Whatever the WG do you will support. Let’s cut the crap mate |
I can speak for myself.
I can see that New Zealand and Germany have got things right, and i can see that clown leaders like Johnson and Trump have got it badly wrong. Its an important distinction as 10’s of thousands of people have died as a direct result.
Stop pretending that this is anything other than you crying like a baby that Wales has a voice.
The Professor has called it right.
Johnson is wrong. |  |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:23 - Jul 2 with 3124 views | Vincent_Vega |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 00:02 - Jul 2 by Ebo |
Are you happy contributing to HS2, Heathrow, Buck house, etc? |
I’m not particularly no but 75% of the Welsh population still want to be part of the Union so I’m guessing they’re happy with it. |  |
| Boycott Shampoo......Demand Real Poo!!! |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:25 - Jul 2 with 3120 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 07:24 - Jul 2 by exhmrc1 |
You are backing a company that clearly has no respect for the rule of law whether it is in Wales or also England. |
What laws do they break?
It's not the best business acumen to buy an airport but not want a good relationship with the continents biggest carrier.
Is there anything that would lead you to crticise this clown? |  | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:30 - Jul 2 with 3112 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:23 - Jul 2 by Vincent_Vega |
I’m not particularly no but 75% of the Welsh population still want to be part of the Union so I’m guessing they’re happy with it. |
I am not happy paying for vanity projects in England whilst Wales is ignored.
The railway spend is ‘England and Wales’ and so whilst HS2 spend also generates funds for Scotland and the north of Ireland..... then Wales gets nothing.
So the poorest country in the UK is funding grand projects in the richer areas.
Why would 7.5% of the people living in wales support that, let alone 75%...?
Its indefensible.
The mines are closed and nobody goes to church any more, so get off your knees man. | |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:32 - Jul 2 with 3109 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:25 - Jul 2 by Scotia |
What laws do they break?
It's not the best business acumen to buy an airport but not want a good relationship with the continents biggest carrier.
Is there anything that would lead you to crticise this clown? |
I would never vote for Johnson. 🤡 | |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:41 - Jul 2 with 3106 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:23 - Jul 2 by Kilkennyjack |
I can speak for myself.
I can see that New Zealand and Germany have got things right, and i can see that clown leaders like Johnson and Trump have got it badly wrong. Its an important distinction as 10’s of thousands of people have died as a direct result.
Stop pretending that this is anything other than you crying like a baby that Wales has a voice.
The Professor has called it right.
Johnson is wrong. |
Cases in England are falling, cases in Wales are increasing. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:08 - Jul 2 with 3091 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:41 - Jul 2 by Scotia |
Cases in England are falling, cases in Wales are increasing. |
You would state any rubbish due to your hatred of Drakeford and the Assembly. Cases in Wales are rising. Lets examine the reality.
Pillar 1 figures Yesterday 32 A week before 47
Day before yesterday 26 The week before 98
Pillar 2 cases 29/6 14 22/6 22
28/6 14 21/6 26
Both figures Pillar 1 and 2 are down on the same figures a week previously and will come down further as the the employees in the factories in Wrexham, Llangefni and Merthyr will have completed testing. Tuesday and Wednesday always show the higher figures as these often include figures tested on the weekend and the Pillar 2 cases for the last 2 days will probably rise slightly as these are based on actual sample dates which sometimes take a few days to filter through.
The 3 days Pillar 1 figures from 21 June shows100, 71 and 98 compared to the 3 days from 29 June showing 116, 26 and 32 with the 116 including 97 from the factory in Merthyr. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:42 - Jul 2 with 3071 views | exhmrc1 |
Comparing the last 6 Tuesdays and Wednesdays shows this week has been the lowest in the whole period. The list shows 238, 149, 80, 118, 141 and 58. This weeks figures are approximately a quarter of what they were 5 weeks ago. Not rising as you try to misinform people. | | | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:00 - Jul 2 with 3068 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:08 - Jul 2 by exhmrc1 |
You would state any rubbish due to your hatred of Drakeford and the Assembly. Cases in Wales are rising. Lets examine the reality.
Pillar 1 figures Yesterday 32 A week before 47
Day before yesterday 26 The week before 98
Pillar 2 cases 29/6 14 22/6 22
28/6 14 21/6 26
Both figures Pillar 1 and 2 are down on the same figures a week previously and will come down further as the the employees in the factories in Wrexham, Llangefni and Merthyr will have completed testing. Tuesday and Wednesday always show the higher figures as these often include figures tested on the weekend and the Pillar 2 cases for the last 2 days will probably rise slightly as these are based on actual sample dates which sometimes take a few days to filter through.
The 3 days Pillar 1 figures from 21 June shows100, 71 and 98 compared to the 3 days from 29 June showing 116, 26 and 32 with the 116 including 97 from the factory in Merthyr. |
At least you're acknowledging Pillar 2 now.
That is not the case if you plot the rolling trends over a few days, Wales had over 100 cases on Sunday. You seemed to have cherry picked recent days and deliberately comparing them to days at a peak of new cases just a few days earlier. Please stop trying to dress this up as something it isn't, Wales has seen a rise in cases over recent weeks you cannot deny that. Yes most are down to the food plants but they are in Wales as much as Leicester is in England.
England consistently falling even if slightly. Wales falling, plateuing, rising and maybe falling a little bit now.
As this thread is about lockdown ending:-
I'm not advocating the England approach to easing lockdown but their cases are consistently falling and have been since April - Wales' haven't you can't deny that. We need to move out of lockdoewn now so lets see what the Welsh Gov say about hospitality today, from what I've read it seems to be more vague nonsense. [Post edited 2 Jul 2020 10:25]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:07 - Jul 2 with 3064 views | bennytheblue |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:13 - Jul 2 by Kilkennyjack |
Keeping the people who live in wales safe in a global pandemic is a correct priority for our Welsh Parliament.
Its as simple as that. |
Until they let 60 million English in here on July 13 so really keeping us safe. Just political nonsense |  | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:17 - Jul 2 with 3055 views | Vincent_Vega |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:30 - Jul 2 by Kilkennyjack |
I am not happy paying for vanity projects in England whilst Wales is ignored.
The railway spend is ‘England and Wales’ and so whilst HS2 spend also generates funds for Scotland and the north of Ireland..... then Wales gets nothing.
So the poorest country in the UK is funding grand projects in the richer areas.
Why would 7.5% of the people living in wales support that, let alone 75%...?
Its indefensible.
The mines are closed and nobody goes to church any more, so get off your knees man. |
Well the latest data suggests independence is at 25% for so that’s where I got the figure. Even if you factored in 25% ‘unsure’ not that it would be that high you still got 50% flat out AGAINST independence.
I would be open to independence if the movement wasn’t filled with uneducated hambones, Twitter SJW’s and partisan lefties who are hell bent on driving wedges into the working populous and try to make us feel guilty about exsisting! Phuck that!
Oh and I’m on my knees because my Welsh assembly put me there with this draconian lockdown. My government is there for defence of the nation, keeping the peace, education, health and keeping the lights on. The rest BUT OUT! | |
| Boycott Shampoo......Demand Real Poo!!! |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:19 - Jul 2 with 3053 views | raynor94 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 08:30 - Jul 2 by Kilkennyjack |
I am not happy paying for vanity projects in England whilst Wales is ignored.
The railway spend is ‘England and Wales’ and so whilst HS2 spend also generates funds for Scotland and the north of Ireland..... then Wales gets nothing.
So the poorest country in the UK is funding grand projects in the richer areas.
Why would 7.5% of the people living in wales support that, let alone 75%...?
Its indefensible.
The mines are closed and nobody goes to church any more, so get off your knees man. |
Thank god the Coracle makers are still open, and all this rain in the last few days.
"We're in the money" |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:08 - Jul 2 with 3028 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:00 - Jul 2 by Scotia |
At least you're acknowledging Pillar 2 now.
That is not the case if you plot the rolling trends over a few days, Wales had over 100 cases on Sunday. You seemed to have cherry picked recent days and deliberately comparing them to days at a peak of new cases just a few days earlier. Please stop trying to dress this up as something it isn't, Wales has seen a rise in cases over recent weeks you cannot deny that. Yes most are down to the food plants but they are in Wales as much as Leicester is in England.
England consistently falling even if slightly. Wales falling, plateuing, rising and maybe falling a little bit now.
As this thread is about lockdown ending:-
I'm not advocating the England approach to easing lockdown but their cases are consistently falling and have been since April - Wales' haven't you can't deny that. We need to move out of lockdoewn now so lets see what the Welsh Gov say about hospitality today, from what I've read it seems to be more vague nonsense. [Post edited 2 Jul 2020 10:25]
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I have given below the figures for each day from 29 April to yesterday so everybody can see how big the drop in Wales has been rather than see your misleading rubbish. The reason there was initially a spike recently was finding 3 food processing factories in Llangefni, Wrexham and Merthyr and there has been large scale testing there of 500 employees in Llangefni, 1000 in Wrexham and 800 in Merthyr. That is the vast majority of the workforce although there remains some who havent been tested and those might show a slightly higher figure for the next few days when those come through. That isnt the same as saying the Welsh numbers are increasing. They are not. They are falling massively. Just taking the first 4 dates there was 126 deaths compared to 14 deaths for the last 4 days. For the same time there were 643 cases as against 199. Over 2/3 less and that includes the 100 cases in the factory testing in Merthyr. Without that it would have been 99 and the kind of 100 tests will be far lower going forward. The Pillar 2 cases are only a small fraction of the Pillar 1 cases so dont pretend otherwise.
Date Death wales New Wales Swansea Neath PT Swansea Bay
29/04/20 43 117 16 8 24
30/04/20 22 183 10 6 16
01/05/20 17 160 16 4 20
02/05/20 44 183 28 5 33
03/05/20 14 174 18 6 24
04/05/20 14 195 20 11 31
05/05/20 26 145 4 0 4
06/05/20 21 95 14 2 16
07/05/20 18 87 8 0 8
08/05/20 28 152 6 1 7
09/05/20 9 118 3 4 7
10/05/20 12 223 10 1 11
11/05/20 5 124 8 4 12
12/05/20 16 105 3 8 11
13/05/20 22 133 10 5 15
14/05/20 10 128 11 3 14
15/05/20 9 126 14 5 19
16/05/20 18 183 6 0 6
17/05/20 12 162 4 7 11
18/05/20 4 102 4 3 7
19/05/20 17 166 2 24 26
20/05/20 14 110 4 4 8
21/05/20 9 166 3 1 4
22/05/20 7 138 12 1 13
23/05/20 6 182 8 4 12
24/05/20 7 140 3 1 4
25/05/20 7 106 3 2 1
Date new deaths New Wales swansea neath pt Swan Bay
26/05/20 8 141 1 2 3
27/05/20 11 97 7 1 8
28/05/20 14 72 5 1 6
29/05/20 10 102 2 2 4
30/05/20 14 86 0 1 1
31/05/20 11 82 1 0 1
01/06/20 5 59 2 1 3
02/06/20 7 67 0 2 2
03/06/20 17 82 0 0 0
04/06/20 8 35 1 0 1
05/06/20 4 76 2 3 5
06/06/20 10 42 1 0 1
07/06/20 5 40 0 1 1
08/06/20 3 42 0 0 0
09/06/20 9 42 2 1 3
10/06/20 9 38 0 0 0
11/06/20 6 63 3 2 5
12/06/10 10 77 2 0 2
13/06/20 6 45 0 2 2
14/06/20 3 39 1 1 2
15/06/20 4 62 1 0 1
16/06/20 8 65 0 2 2
17/06/20 10 53 0 2 2
18/06/20 5 48 0 0 0
19/06/20 4 31 0 2 2
Date new deaths New Wales SwanseaNeath PT Swan Bay
20/06/20 1 25 0 0 0
21/06/20 1 100 0 2 2
22/06/20 1 71 0 0 0
23/06/20 5 98 0 2 2
24/06/20 8 47 0 1 1
25/06/20 6 123 1 1 2
26/06/20 2 65 0 0 0
27/06/20 5 46 0 0 0
28/06/20 2 25 1 0 1
29/06/20 3 116 0 0 0
30/06/20 3 26 0 0 0
01/07/20 6 32 0 1 1 | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:48 - Jul 2 with 3008 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:08 - Jul 2 by exhmrc1 |
I have given below the figures for each day from 29 April to yesterday so everybody can see how big the drop in Wales has been rather than see your misleading rubbish. The reason there was initially a spike recently was finding 3 food processing factories in Llangefni, Wrexham and Merthyr and there has been large scale testing there of 500 employees in Llangefni, 1000 in Wrexham and 800 in Merthyr. That is the vast majority of the workforce although there remains some who havent been tested and those might show a slightly higher figure for the next few days when those come through. That isnt the same as saying the Welsh numbers are increasing. They are not. They are falling massively. Just taking the first 4 dates there was 126 deaths compared to 14 deaths for the last 4 days. For the same time there were 643 cases as against 199. Over 2/3 less and that includes the 100 cases in the factory testing in Merthyr. Without that it would have been 99 and the kind of 100 tests will be far lower going forward. The Pillar 2 cases are only a small fraction of the Pillar 1 cases so dont pretend otherwise.
Date Death wales New Wales Swansea Neath PT Swansea Bay
29/04/20 43 117 16 8 24
30/04/20 22 183 10 6 16
01/05/20 17 160 16 4 20
02/05/20 44 183 28 5 33
03/05/20 14 174 18 6 24
04/05/20 14 195 20 11 31
05/05/20 26 145 4 0 4
06/05/20 21 95 14 2 16
07/05/20 18 87 8 0 8
08/05/20 28 152 6 1 7
09/05/20 9 118 3 4 7
10/05/20 12 223 10 1 11
11/05/20 5 124 8 4 12
12/05/20 16 105 3 8 11
13/05/20 22 133 10 5 15
14/05/20 10 128 11 3 14
15/05/20 9 126 14 5 19
16/05/20 18 183 6 0 6
17/05/20 12 162 4 7 11
18/05/20 4 102 4 3 7
19/05/20 17 166 2 24 26
20/05/20 14 110 4 4 8
21/05/20 9 166 3 1 4
22/05/20 7 138 12 1 13
23/05/20 6 182 8 4 12
24/05/20 7 140 3 1 4
25/05/20 7 106 3 2 1
Date new deaths New Wales swansea neath pt Swan Bay
26/05/20 8 141 1 2 3
27/05/20 11 97 7 1 8
28/05/20 14 72 5 1 6
29/05/20 10 102 2 2 4
30/05/20 14 86 0 1 1
31/05/20 11 82 1 0 1
01/06/20 5 59 2 1 3
02/06/20 7 67 0 2 2
03/06/20 17 82 0 0 0
04/06/20 8 35 1 0 1
05/06/20 4 76 2 3 5
06/06/20 10 42 1 0 1
07/06/20 5 40 0 1 1
08/06/20 3 42 0 0 0
09/06/20 9 42 2 1 3
10/06/20 9 38 0 0 0
11/06/20 6 63 3 2 5
12/06/10 10 77 2 0 2
13/06/20 6 45 0 2 2
14/06/20 3 39 1 1 2
15/06/20 4 62 1 0 1
16/06/20 8 65 0 2 2
17/06/20 10 53 0 2 2
18/06/20 5 48 0 0 0
19/06/20 4 31 0 2 2
Date new deaths New Wales SwanseaNeath PT Swan Bay
20/06/20 1 25 0 0 0
21/06/20 1 100 0 2 2
22/06/20 1 71 0 0 0
23/06/20 5 98 0 2 2
24/06/20 8 47 0 1 1
25/06/20 6 123 1 1 2
26/06/20 2 65 0 0 0
27/06/20 5 46 0 0 0
28/06/20 2 25 1 0 1
29/06/20 3 116 0 0 0
30/06/20 3 26 0 0 0
01/07/20 6 32 0 1 1 |
Stop cherry picking figures in a vain attempt to prove you are correct, it is absurd. Wales as a whole, P1 and P2, on a rolling average has been increasing for about the last 3 weeks - potentially until yesterday. I'm fed up going over this it is like talking to a wall. I note those figures only contain P1 - but even those don't show a signifcant drop from 223 on 10th May to 123 on 25th June, a fall less than 50%. The UK as a whole could be said to have fallen by 90% from a peak in April, from nearly 9000 to less than 900. I'm cherry picking but so are you.
If you pick an area of Wales to plot figures from with few cases you will find few cases. If you plotted the same figures for Wrexham it would like we were all doomed. It would be the same if you compared somewhere like Plymouth to Leicester.
I completely agree that we have very few cases in Swansea, the cases have dropped like a stone, and I'm chuffed. So why on earth have I got to wait, probably until August, to go to the local pub? Whereas if I lived in Brighton I could go on Saturday. Why can't I take my daughter to Caswell but Londoner's can travel to Bournemouth for a day out (with no increase in cases)? | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:02 - Jul 2 with 2997 views | felixstowe_jack |
Just wonder if the Leicester outbreak has anything to do with the BLM protest march held in Leicester on 6th June attended by thousands with no social distancing. | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:08 - Jul 2 with 2992 views | controversial_jack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:02 - Jul 2 by felixstowe_jack |
Just wonder if the Leicester outbreak has anything to do with the BLM protest march held in Leicester on 6th June attended by thousands with no social distancing. |
No, it's not.Many other cities would have had spikes and they haven't | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:21 - Jul 2 with 2983 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:08 - Jul 2 by controversial_jack |
No, it's not.Many other cities would have had spikes and they haven't |
Is that just your option or do you have any evidence?
It seems fairly obvious if thousand of people take to the streets without any social distancing the chance of spreading the virus will increase. | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:21 - Jul 2 with 2984 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:02 - Jul 2 by felixstowe_jack |
Just wonder if the Leicester outbreak has anything to do with the BLM protest march held in Leicester on 6th June attended by thousands with no social distancing. |
And an increase started before that, so infections were probabaly from 3rd week of May. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:22 - Jul 2 with 2984 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:48 - Jul 2 by Scotia |
Stop cherry picking figures in a vain attempt to prove you are correct, it is absurd. Wales as a whole, P1 and P2, on a rolling average has been increasing for about the last 3 weeks - potentially until yesterday. I'm fed up going over this it is like talking to a wall. I note those figures only contain P1 - but even those don't show a signifcant drop from 223 on 10th May to 123 on 25th June, a fall less than 50%. The UK as a whole could be said to have fallen by 90% from a peak in April, from nearly 9000 to less than 900. I'm cherry picking but so are you.
If you pick an area of Wales to plot figures from with few cases you will find few cases. If you plotted the same figures for Wrexham it would like we were all doomed. It would be the same if you compared somewhere like Plymouth to Leicester.
I completely agree that we have very few cases in Swansea, the cases have dropped like a stone, and I'm chuffed. So why on earth have I got to wait, probably until August, to go to the local pub? Whereas if I lived in Brighton I could go on Saturday. Why can't I take my daughter to Caswell but Londoner's can travel to Bournemouth for a day out (with no increase in cases)? |
As far as the 223 figure it gives a totally false impression because it was the day one of the Health Boards declared cases it hadnt so it is artificially high. Hence the reason that I didnt use it.
The figures for Pillar 2 which are on actual sample dates rather than dates recorded show 14 per day for the last 3 days 13 each for the 2 days before 5 the previous day and 17 the day before that. 90 in a week an average of just under 13 a day. The week before shows 22 for 2 days, 26 the day before that, 16, 20, 31 and 21. ie 158 in a week at a daily average of over 22 so they have gone down from a daily figure of 22 to 13. Part of this is due to Wrexham and Llangefni and as those test are complete it will drop down further. Adding 13 isnt really going to alter things much is it and we dont know where these relate but I strongly suspect it is North Wales due to its proximity to one of the labs rather than the distance to Cardiff.
As far as your other comment it seems you want to follow the English system. Both the Welsh and Scottish governments are following similar paths. It is the UK government that is ignoring the caution and the science rather than Wales. Devolution allows for that but you clearly dont want devolution so I am hardly surprised at your comments.
As I say without the Merthyr factory outbreak 46,25,16, 26 and 32 cases over the last 5 days. That is 145 meaning 29 per day plus 13 which are 42 per day and over the next few days this will drop further as the last 2 days tend to include figures recorded late from the weekend. The only thing that will keep figures higher is the test not yet done in the factories.
As I have said to you on many occasions 5 miles is a guidance not a rule. I dont know where you live from Caswell but if you live in Swansea you would have an arguable case to say that you are staying unlike say someone coming from Cardiff to Swansea. The 5 mile rule was never put in statute but is guidance over what stay local means. If you say 5 miles people will treat it as 10 and if you make it 10 then people will treat it as 20. The only actual rule is to stay local and everyone will have a different view of what staying local is.
When Drakeford introduced it he stated it was a "rule of thumb" and would differ dependant on circumstances. He went on to say it might be far more in more rural areas. I dont know why people have become stuck on 5 miles when it isnt law anyway. The whole object of stay local is to stop the threat of someone going from a heavily infected area and transmitting it to somewhere where this low infection.
If you actually look more deeply into the figures Cardiff yesterday had numerous cases of cases tested in hospital wards or A&E and that is worrying. The Carmarthenshire figures show the same. This is the worry that the virus could spread from those areas to say Swansea. It is why the stay local advice was correct as at that time some had higher infection rates. Today most areas across Wales have similar low figures and when the local rule is probably relaxed it will be done at the correct time.
As far as other places having pubs open that is the policy of their administration which I think is folly as he situation of removing lock down too early has proved elsewhere. I think taking a week or 2 longer to open safely is the correct policy. As our figures come down further the risk of removing the 2 metre rule also decreases. I suppose it is all a question of judgement but I would prefer us to follow the medical advice rather than bringing in policies on the hoof as has happened in England to placate the right wing tory back benchers like IDS, Baker and Francois. [Post edited 2 Jul 2020 13:21]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:11 - Jul 2 with 2952 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:22 - Jul 2 by exhmrc1 |
As far as the 223 figure it gives a totally false impression because it was the day one of the Health Boards declared cases it hadnt so it is artificially high. Hence the reason that I didnt use it.
The figures for Pillar 2 which are on actual sample dates rather than dates recorded show 14 per day for the last 3 days 13 each for the 2 days before 5 the previous day and 17 the day before that. 90 in a week an average of just under 13 a day. The week before shows 22 for 2 days, 26 the day before that, 16, 20, 31 and 21. ie 158 in a week at a daily average of over 22 so they have gone down from a daily figure of 22 to 13. Part of this is due to Wrexham and Llangefni and as those test are complete it will drop down further. Adding 13 isnt really going to alter things much is it and we dont know where these relate but I strongly suspect it is North Wales due to its proximity to one of the labs rather than the distance to Cardiff.
As far as your other comment it seems you want to follow the English system. Both the Welsh and Scottish governments are following similar paths. It is the UK government that is ignoring the caution and the science rather than Wales. Devolution allows for that but you clearly dont want devolution so I am hardly surprised at your comments.
As I say without the Merthyr factory outbreak 46,25,16, 26 and 32 cases over the last 5 days. That is 145 meaning 29 per day plus 13 which are 42 per day and over the next few days this will drop further as the last 2 days tend to include figures recorded late from the weekend. The only thing that will keep figures higher is the test not yet done in the factories.
As I have said to you on many occasions 5 miles is a guidance not a rule. I dont know where you live from Caswell but if you live in Swansea you would have an arguable case to say that you are staying unlike say someone coming from Cardiff to Swansea. The 5 mile rule was never put in statute but is guidance over what stay local means. If you say 5 miles people will treat it as 10 and if you make it 10 then people will treat it as 20. The only actual rule is to stay local and everyone will have a different view of what staying local is.
When Drakeford introduced it he stated it was a "rule of thumb" and would differ dependant on circumstances. He went on to say it might be far more in more rural areas. I dont know why people have become stuck on 5 miles when it isnt law anyway. The whole object of stay local is to stop the threat of someone going from a heavily infected area and transmitting it to somewhere where this low infection.
If you actually look more deeply into the figures Cardiff yesterday had numerous cases of cases tested in hospital wards or A&E and that is worrying. The Carmarthenshire figures show the same. This is the worry that the virus could spread from those areas to say Swansea. It is why the stay local advice was correct as at that time some had higher infection rates. Today most areas across Wales have similar low figures and when the local rule is probably relaxed it will be done at the correct time.
As far as other places having pubs open that is the policy of their administration which I think is folly as he situation of removing lock down too early has proved elsewhere. I think taking a week or 2 longer to open safely is the correct policy. As our figures come down further the risk of removing the 2 metre rule also decreases. I suppose it is all a question of judgement but I would prefer us to follow the medical advice rather than bringing in policies on the hoof as has happened in England to placate the right wing tory back benchers like IDS, Baker and Francois. [Post edited 2 Jul 2020 13:21]
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Why do you accuse anyone that disagrees with you of not wanting devolution?
I’m a strong supporter of devolution.
No one is saying that I’ve seen that cases aren’t dropping and that it’s a good thing. People are saying that they’re dropping everywhere, no quicker in Wales than in England and yet the Welsh economy is suffering far more as things aren’t opening up to protect people’s jobs. You don’t care about that, as your income is unaffected as a pensioner.
You need to understand that all this is a risk. But what many in Wales (the Welsh government that is) seem to want is for people in England to put themselves at risk, to generate money for the UK economy, to pay furlough money or public sector pay to people in Wales that aren’t prepared to accept the same risk themselves. It’s bonkers. English people are just going to say sod off. Your position is harming more devolution in many ways as Wales is putting itself at risk of huge economic harm. And when it goes to England with its hand out, what exactly do you think will happen?
You’ve already seen signs of it - not a penny for Wales that I can see in Johnson’s ‘Bob the Builder’ nonsense.
If over the next month or so Wales says ‘we need to continue furlough because we’re not at the same point as England’, Wales will rightly be told ‘tough‘. [Post edited 2 Jul 2020 13:12]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:16 - Jul 2 with 2948 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:21 - Jul 2 by felixstowe_jack |
Is that just your option or do you have any evidence?
It seems fairly obvious if thousand of people take to the streets without any social distancing the chance of spreading the virus will increase. |
The dates are completely wrong. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:30 - Jul 2 with 2943 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:21 - Jul 2 by Scotia |
And an increase started before that, so infections were probabaly from 3rd week of May. |
Pretty much proves it if infections were rising in May then the demonstration in June would have increased infections | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:44 - Jul 2 with 2936 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:22 - Jul 2 by exhmrc1 |
As far as the 223 figure it gives a totally false impression because it was the day one of the Health Boards declared cases it hadnt so it is artificially high. Hence the reason that I didnt use it.
The figures for Pillar 2 which are on actual sample dates rather than dates recorded show 14 per day for the last 3 days 13 each for the 2 days before 5 the previous day and 17 the day before that. 90 in a week an average of just under 13 a day. The week before shows 22 for 2 days, 26 the day before that, 16, 20, 31 and 21. ie 158 in a week at a daily average of over 22 so they have gone down from a daily figure of 22 to 13. Part of this is due to Wrexham and Llangefni and as those test are complete it will drop down further. Adding 13 isnt really going to alter things much is it and we dont know where these relate but I strongly suspect it is North Wales due to its proximity to one of the labs rather than the distance to Cardiff.
As far as your other comment it seems you want to follow the English system. Both the Welsh and Scottish governments are following similar paths. It is the UK government that is ignoring the caution and the science rather than Wales. Devolution allows for that but you clearly dont want devolution so I am hardly surprised at your comments.
As I say without the Merthyr factory outbreak 46,25,16, 26 and 32 cases over the last 5 days. That is 145 meaning 29 per day plus 13 which are 42 per day and over the next few days this will drop further as the last 2 days tend to include figures recorded late from the weekend. The only thing that will keep figures higher is the test not yet done in the factories.
As I have said to you on many occasions 5 miles is a guidance not a rule. I dont know where you live from Caswell but if you live in Swansea you would have an arguable case to say that you are staying unlike say someone coming from Cardiff to Swansea. The 5 mile rule was never put in statute but is guidance over what stay local means. If you say 5 miles people will treat it as 10 and if you make it 10 then people will treat it as 20. The only actual rule is to stay local and everyone will have a different view of what staying local is.
When Drakeford introduced it he stated it was a "rule of thumb" and would differ dependant on circumstances. He went on to say it might be far more in more rural areas. I dont know why people have become stuck on 5 miles when it isnt law anyway. The whole object of stay local is to stop the threat of someone going from a heavily infected area and transmitting it to somewhere where this low infection.
If you actually look more deeply into the figures Cardiff yesterday had numerous cases of cases tested in hospital wards or A&E and that is worrying. The Carmarthenshire figures show the same. This is the worry that the virus could spread from those areas to say Swansea. It is why the stay local advice was correct as at that time some had higher infection rates. Today most areas across Wales have similar low figures and when the local rule is probably relaxed it will be done at the correct time.
As far as other places having pubs open that is the policy of their administration which I think is folly as he situation of removing lock down too early has proved elsewhere. I think taking a week or 2 longer to open safely is the correct policy. As our figures come down further the risk of removing the 2 metre rule also decreases. I suppose it is all a question of judgement but I would prefer us to follow the medical advice rather than bringing in policies on the hoof as has happened in England to placate the right wing tory back benchers like IDS, Baker and Francois. [Post edited 2 Jul 2020 13:21]
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I'm not necessarily oppose to devoltution, I just don't think we have the politicians up to the job. Any of them. The only potenial successor to Drakeford (and one is needed asap) as leader, that I can see is Jeremy Miles but he doesn't seem too popular with the other members. We have no real effective opposition at present and by May 2020 I'd expect us to have another slender Lab majority / Labour led coalition and the same nonsene we are putting up with now from the same people. Would I rather this than having Boris directly in charge? Absolutley!
Regarding the lockdown - the measures put in place so far in England have allowed more freedom whilst cases still fall considerably in most places. Based on this experience I don't see how you can say Wales are following the science, we have the same science to work from but Wales are being more cautious. Far too cautious in my opinion. Scotland seem to be taking a more sensible approach. I think the further relaxation this weekend in England is madness
For me one thing that would make a big difference if Drakeford gave some dates, even if they were heavily caveated. His 3 week reviews need to be reduced to 2 weeks at most.
The owned and licensed outiside parts of pubs opening on the 13th is probably no good to anyone. Why not let pubs uses car parks as beer gardens and Cafes the pavement? He has the planning powers to do this.
Why not be clear about when the inside of these places can open and under what conditions? Even if he just said something like "not before Jul 27th" even though under many circumstances that would be too late! Instead he has said nothing. Scotland, England and N Ireland have. Wales is losing out becasue of this - It's the Mrs birthday on the 31st. I was hoping to take her to the Michelin starred place in Oxwich, I booked one in Bath last night instead because I have no idea if the the one in Oxwich will be allowed to open.
Why not give an indication of when gyms can reopen or team sport start?
Nobody is asking him to go against the science but at lease tell us what his decision making process is, becasue I'm beginning to think he hasn't got one. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:46 - Jul 2 with 2933 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:30 - Jul 2 by felixstowe_jack |
Pretty much proves it if infections were rising in May then the demonstration in June would have increased infections |
No.
Again. The dates are all wrong.
Instead of blaming BLM for no reason why don’t you read the incredibly comprehensive report on Leicester’s outbreak that was published to find out the answers. A really interesting piece of work from PHE.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attac | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:47 - Jul 2 with 2933 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:30 - Jul 2 by felixstowe_jack |
Pretty much proves it if infections were rising in May then the demonstration in June would have increased infections |
Well not really. It seems that the epicentre is a muslim majority area and the timing coincides with Eid. There is no proof of that but it is possible.
That doesn't bode well for Christmas. | | | |
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