| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 10:25 - Sep 16 with 14579 views | robith |
Hello fellow travellers of the night.
You may remember this thread from last year where I tried to create a way of seeing our chances of survival (aside from the brief fortnight we thought we were gonna make the play offs). I had planned to bring it back, and had some nice feedback that people wanted to see it again. Now we've played 15% of our game it feels robust enough to have a look
Also, others made great contributions too, so maybe this could be a catch all stats thread
From last year - "So I've tried to create a basic statistics system to see. Totally based in the numbers we need to post rather than subjective analysis of how games have gone.
So each week I'll post the index of our chance of survival. Indices work by converting separate numbers into a base (which is scored as 100) and working out how more or less likely an outcome is. 120 is the mark for something significantly being likely to happen, 80 is the mark for something being significantly unlikely to happen."
So in summary - 100 equals standard. Above 100 = good, below 100=bad
I've taken the average points for the last 5 years. Play offs = 76.2. Survival = 46.6
Survival: 191
Play Offs: 117
Interestingly though when we look at vs the same results last year (so discounting Hudd & Luton) we have 9 points vs last year's 10. I've built this in this year so will keep monitoring it.
Encouraging start. 28% of points for survival accomplished already.
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 12:06 - Oct 23 with 3928 views | BrianMcCarthy |
This stuff scares the $hit out of me. I feel like I'm back in Miss Bridges's Applied Maths class and I swear to God I just shivered.
"But Brian - how do you NOT understand it!"
"My Mom says I'm special, Miss". |  |
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 13:49 - Oct 23 with 3812 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 12:06 - Oct 23 by BrianMcCarthy |
This stuff scares the $hit out of me. I feel like I'm back in Miss Bridges's Applied Maths class and I swear to God I just shivered.
"But Brian - how do you NOT understand it!"
"My Mom says I'm special, Miss". |
Funnily enough Brian, I wasn't great at maths at school (well, I was in set 2 which I considered a failure) as it just never clicked with me like other subjects. But since going to work I absolutely love manipulating data and it all makes so much more sense to me.
That said I'm still haunted by one teacher whose obtuse style of teaching baffled me
Mrs Cox multiplied by Mrs Cox equals Mrs Cox squared WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 13:56 - Oct 23 with 3795 views | FDC |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 11:48 - Oct 23 by robith |
Hi Guys, Big index update for you combining Hull and Reading.
And thanks for the feedback, I've brought in some new features, particularly off the back of what stevec mentioned last time out.
First up the index headlines:
Playoffs: 111
Survival: 182
On my measure of fixtures we played last season, we're on 19 points vs 13, which continues to improve which is v positive given some odd fixture variables (we lost to Swansea at home this year despite thrashing them last year for example) and important as fixture list has been kind thus far.
As our goal difference is 0 (actually hilarious for our league position) we have the same goals per game/conceded per game, both of which are higher than last year's fixtures (1.77 vs 1.43 scored, 1.3 conceded). Inability to concede fewer goals seems to be the main factor holding us back, rather than clean sheets given the games we've lost, we've lost by at least two clean goals.
The worm continues to wriggle upwards
The error "better version of last year" parallels continue (I also got rid of that godforsaken #REF)
I've then worked out our running points per game (not interesting enough to show on its own) and then extrapolated that week by week to show our running forecast finish based on last season (I will eventually change this to an average 5 year tally like the main index, but that will take me a little time to scrape the data). Currently our PPG has finishing on 81 points, which last season would've had us finish 4th
The TL:DR version - it's all going pretty well |
That bottom graph is a nice addition, nice one. |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 14:01 - Oct 23 with 3781 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 13:49 - Oct 23 by robith |
Funnily enough Brian, I wasn't great at maths at school (well, I was in set 2 which I considered a failure) as it just never clicked with me like other subjects. But since going to work I absolutely love manipulating data and it all makes so much more sense to me.
That said I'm still haunted by one teacher whose obtuse style of teaching baffled me
Mrs Cox multiplied by Mrs Cox equals Mrs Cox squared WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT |
I feel your pain.
LBlock and myself were in technical college together and we were studying structures which was all that forces and opposing forces and weird stuff like that. We had this incredibly aloof lecturer (LB will remember his name) and I was completely lost and heading for another inglorious failure in the upcoming exams. Sometime around March, I finally put my hand up.
"Sorry, but I don't get it".
"What part don't you get?"
"Any of it"
"Of this exercise?"
"Well....."
"Of this lecture?"
"Well, any of it, the whole subject, I don't get it"
"Does anyone else feel this way?"
And most did.
And, to be fair the old lad, he started from scratch and did the whole year in about six weeks.
Most passed.
I failed by one per cent and had to repeat the year.
I was well pleased with that! | |
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 14:10 - Oct 23 with 3762 views | loftboy |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 14:01 - Oct 23 by BrianMcCarthy |
I feel your pain.
LBlock and myself were in technical college together and we were studying structures which was all that forces and opposing forces and weird stuff like that. We had this incredibly aloof lecturer (LB will remember his name) and I was completely lost and heading for another inglorious failure in the upcoming exams. Sometime around March, I finally put my hand up.
"Sorry, but I don't get it".
"What part don't you get?"
"Any of it"
"Of this exercise?"
"Well....."
"Of this lecture?"
"Well, any of it, the whole subject, I don't get it"
"Does anyone else feel this way?"
And most did.
And, to be fair the old lad, he started from scratch and did the whole year in about six weeks.
Most passed.
I failed by one per cent and had to repeat the year.
I was well pleased with that! |
Me too, I was in an O level maths class, our teacher had transferred to our comprehensive from an all girls grammar school. I’m actually excellent at doing arithmetic in my head, but as far as algebra goes I was useless, one double lesson the above mentioned teacher spent half of it filling the blackboard with equations. When he finished I put my hand up and asked him to explain it again, I was told his 12 year olds from his grammar school could do that with his eyes shut and I shouldn’t need it explained! I was put back to a CSE class at the next opportunity.
And Robith I haven’t got a clue what your figures mean, I religiously read it but I genuinely don’t understand it. [Post edited 23 Oct 2019 15:25]
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 14:31 - Oct 23 with 3733 views | jonno |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 14:10 - Oct 23 by loftboy |
Me too, I was in an O level maths class, our teacher had transferred to our comprehensive from an all girls grammar school. I’m actually excellent at doing arithmetic in my head, but as far as algebra goes I was useless, one double lesson the above mentioned teacher spent half of it filling the blackboard with equations. When he finished I put my hand up and asked him to explain it again, I was told his 12 year olds from his grammar school could do that with his eyes shut and I shouldn’t need it explained! I was put back to a CSE class at the next opportunity.
And Robith I haven’t got a clue what your figures mean, I religiously read it but I genuinely don’t understand it. [Post edited 23 Oct 2019 15:25]
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I think that all you need to know is that it's looking like the possibility of relegation is very remote! |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 16:05 - Oct 23 with 3703 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 14:31 - Oct 23 by jonno |
I think that all you need to know is that it's looking like the possibility of relegation is very remote! |
The brief summary is
We've played 27% of our games
We have 30% of the points needed roughly to make the play offs
We have 49% of the points needed to avoid relegation
All in all, lovely stuff | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 16:37 - Oct 23 with 3682 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 16:05 - Oct 23 by robith |
The brief summary is
We've played 27% of our games
We have 30% of the points needed roughly to make the play offs
We have 49% of the points needed to avoid relegation
All in all, lovely stuff |
Y'see! If my lecturer was that clear it would have saved me a year! | |
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 18:32 - Oct 23 with 3615 views | loftboy |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 16:05 - Oct 23 by robith |
The brief summary is
We've played 27% of our games
We have 30% of the points needed roughly to make the play offs
We have 49% of the points needed to avoid relegation
All in all, lovely stuff |
So where does the 187 and 117 points come from for playoffs and survival? Once explained I’m sure the penny will drop. Cheers Robith [Post edited 23 Oct 2019 18:35]
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 11:43 - Oct 24 with 3514 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 18:32 - Oct 23 by loftboy |
So where does the 187 and 117 points come from for playoffs and survival? Once explained I’m sure the penny will drop. Cheers Robith [Post edited 23 Oct 2019 18:35]
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Their indices not points - a way of grading how well we're doing, where 100 is the baseline - anything above 100 is more likely, anything below it is bad.
So we're currently slightly more likely than the average to make the play offs, we're significantly more likely than average to stay up | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 13:39 - Oct 24 with 3462 views | loftboy |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 11:43 - Oct 24 by robith |
Their indices not points - a way of grading how well we're doing, where 100 is the baseline - anything above 100 is more likely, anything below it is bad.
So we're currently slightly more likely than the average to make the play offs, we're significantly more likely than average to stay up |
Totally get it now , cheers and keep up the good work. | |
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 15:18 - Nov 5 with 3157 views | TacticalR |
@robith 'Hilariously we're at the same place we were last season'
Yes, this was mentioned on the last Open All R's podcast. A useful statistic to keep our feet on the ground when odd things like away wins are happening. |  |
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 17:29 - Nov 5 with 3068 views | Northernr |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 15:18 - Nov 5 by TacticalR |
@robith 'Hilariously we're at the same place we were last season'
Yes, this was mentioned on the last Open All R's podcast. A useful statistic to keep our feet on the ground when odd things like away wins are happening. |
But weirdly it's for different reasons. This year it's because we've dented a very good start with a poor few results in the last three weeks. A year ago we'd artificially inflated a poor start by winning three in a week against Ipswich, Sheff Wed and Villa. |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 10:45 - Nov 6 with 2951 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 17:29 - Nov 5 by Northernr |
But weirdly it's for different reasons. This year it's because we've dented a very good start with a poor few results in the last three weeks. A year ago we'd artificially inflated a poor start by winning three in a week against Ipswich, Sheff Wed and Villa. |
Exactly, our rise has been more consistent than last year.
Further the style of football is much more exciting - last year our winning style was built on Toni and Lynch camped on the edge of the box as we sat deep.
I've been comparing us to exact fixtures last year but if we compare to the first 15 games we're playing a far more open style of football (that also means we're conceding a lot more admittedly) (and please take last season with salt as i'm doing this manually unlike now which i have in a big auld spreadsheet)
Goals scored:
18/19: 15 - 1 GPG
19/20: 24 - 1.6 GPG
Goals conceded:
18/19: 19 - 1.26 GPG
19/20: 29 - 1.9 GPG
However what's interesting is if we compare goals conceded vs victory and defeat
Goals conceded in defeat
18/19 - 14 - 2.33 per defeat
19/20 - 15 - 2.5 per defeat
Goals conceded in victory
18/19 - 1 - 0.14 per win
19/20 - 11- 1.54 per win
Forgot my conclusion - even when winning last year, we were a dour team to watch [Post edited 6 Nov 2019 10:47]
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 12:45 - Jun 10 with 1643 views | robith |
So I actually posted on the old thread that this was abandoned as I had my laptop stolen.
Well. I've had some time on my hands so I've rebuilt it.
Not at full capacity yet but some thought food before the season recommences
Play off index of 0.85.
Sorry to be the bearer of ill tidings but it will take quite something to reach the play offs
I'll add a chart after the first game back tracking vs current 6th's progress
Historical trends would suggest we need 25 points to make the play offs - 2.27 points per game remaining
PNE currently in 6th's trajectory is to 69 (nice) points however - still 1.7 per game. Punchy
Our forecast points on current trajectory vs last year league finish spell the challenge
With the caveat last year's 6 and 7th had higher PPG than the current occupants
On a positive note for the season though, we're only a point away from matching last year's total
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 12:49 - Jun 10 with 1639 views | robith |
Oh I'll add a chart next week tracking us vs current 6th | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 15:49 - Jun 10 with 1568 views | kensalriser |
# Team M. W. D. L. Goals Dif. Pt.
1 Leeds United Leeds United 46 28 10 8 78:38 40 94
2 West Bromwich Albion 46 25 16 5 83:47 36 91
3 Fulham FC Fulham FC 46 23 14 9 70:49 21 83
4 Brentford FC Brentford FC 46 23 11 12 83:44 39 80
5 Nottingham Forest 46 21 15 10 63:49 14 78
6 Queens Park Rangers 46 20 10 16 74:70 4 70
7 Bristol City Bristol City 46 18 16 12 64:62 2 70 |  |
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