I think we can all agree that our primary objective this year needs to be first and foremost to stay up. Further it's been say a mixed bag of a season, where even I, the perennial happy clapper was calling for the manager to be sacked after 5 games. I saw a comment in Brian's thread of someone saying "well, they'll just say Reading were crap" and that got me thinking. Yeah people will.
So I've tried to create a basic statistics system to see. Totally based in the numbers we need to post rather than subjective analysis of how games have gone.
So each week I'll post the index of our chance of survival. Indices work by converting separate numbers into a base (which is scored as 100) and working out how more or less likely an outcome is. 120 is the mark for something significantly being likely to happen, 80 is the mark for something being significantly unlikely to happen.
I've set the base for safety at 50 points. Can revise on feedback
So Gameweek 11:
Played: 11/46 - 24% of games played
Points: 13/50 - 26% of points needed
Based on this our current survival index is 109
At this stage we look like staying up, but it's not a sure thing - we're tracking very close to the baseline run rate.
Stay tuned for more exciting stats action as it comes |  |
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