| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival 19:55 - Dec 23 with 10390 views | Jack_Kass |
A lot is made of the ‘bottom at Xmas tag’, and statistically it can be seen as the kiss of death, with only 12% of teams having avoided relegation from this position*, with the three survivors being (WBA (2005), Sunderland (2014), Leicester (2015).
But, the asterix next to that statistic, is Swansea City (2016), as we were effectively joint bottom, and level on points with Hull City on Xmas day last year, and as we all knew, survived! So to flip that statistic in a positive manner, the past 3 consecutive seasons have seen the team/s with the lowest points on Xmas day survive, here’s hoping for for a 4th!
But, what fails to be mentioned alongside the ‘xmas curse’, is that Xmas Day can fall at different points in the season, in terms of games played, e.g in 2016 it was Round 17, with 19 not coming until NYD, and this year Game 19 has already been played, a whole 9 days earlier than last year.
So let’s look at Game 19, statistically, as a benchmark for the season, rather than the 25th of December. Game 19 being the half way mark, and theoretically, meaning we have played every team in the league (but not always strictly true).
Below is a summary of 18th position (highest relegation spot) at Game 19, over the last 10 seasons, with their points total, and their points per game average, with the credentials of the team who were relegated that season in 18th position, to the right, There is also the difference between the two avg points totals.
So with Game 19 already played in the 2017/2018 season, we now have the data available to make the prediction for the points total needed to survive relegation this year.
The avg points needed for the team in 18th to survive, from this point, is 19. It has been as high as 23 (2011), and as low as 12 (2010).
The avg rise in points per game for 18th position, from Game 19 to 38, is 0.07, predicting that the relegated team this year, will have 34.58 points (35). Although it has been as high as 0.21 (2008), and as low as -0.16 (2009,2010)
Using the data, we can predict that the magic number to survive this season will be 35 pts. Incidentally, 35 is also the exact average pts needed to survive over the last 10 years (perfect!)
So what does this leave Swansea City needing to do, in the second half of the season, to reach the total of 35 points?
In 2016/2017, Swansea City had 13 points from 19 games.
In 2017/2018, Swansea City have.. 13 points from 19 games.
Swansea City need a minimum of 22 points in the next 19 games, to meet our magic number and survive, 1 point more than we would have needed to survive, last season.
Last year, we amassed a total of 29 points over the second half of the season! An average of 1.53 pts per game. That will certainly do again this year, can we repeat it?
Swansea City will need to improve their average points total by 0.48 points per game to reach this total, last season they improved their second half total by 0.90 points per game. An improvement of 0.48 points looks relatively easy!
Statistically, the club is in an incredibly similar position to the one they faced last season, with 13 pts from 19 games. They have scored less goals, but also conceded less, with a goal difference today of -15, compared to -23, this time last year.
Not rocket science to any fan, we need points, and soon.
The key notable difference for me, from this time last year, to now, being..
Last year we were at 19 games played when Clement came in, and rocketed us up the table, thereafter.
This year, we are already at 19 games played, with seemingly no idea of who is going to be in charge, or in how many games time?
Will we have a team/manager in place, over the next few months, to repeat the scenario of last year?
We did it just one year ago, can we do it again? Does lightning strike twice? Let's all hope so.
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 21:33 - Dec 23 with 7697 views | trampie |
Last season after 19 matches we had played everybody once ?
This season we have played lowly Palace twice and not played Liverpool at all.
20 games, playing one team twice and everybody else once, 10 home games, 10 away games might be a better indication than the 19 game mark due to the imbalance of home and away matches, but there again somebody would have played super Man City twice (is it B'mouth - are they in the bottom 3 ?) while Swans have played a poor team twice.
Incredibly after Swans next game they will have played the same teams as last season after 20 games (counting promoted and relegated teams as the same).
Swans need to win at Anfield on boxing to have more points at the same stage as last season, even a draw and Swans will be doing worse.
Swans strong second half to the season was because Swans best players Siggy and Llorente came to the fore.
Swans no longer have those two players, to hope Swans can match what happened last season Swans need to get a Siggy and a Llorente which equates to a £60M spend on two players in those positions in January. [Post edited 23 Dec 2017 21:42]
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:05 - Dec 23 with 7649 views | jack247 |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 21:33 - Dec 23 by trampie |
Last season after 19 matches we had played everybody once ?
This season we have played lowly Palace twice and not played Liverpool at all.
20 games, playing one team twice and everybody else once, 10 home games, 10 away games might be a better indication than the 19 game mark due to the imbalance of home and away matches, but there again somebody would have played super Man City twice (is it B'mouth - are they in the bottom 3 ?) while Swans have played a poor team twice.
Incredibly after Swans next game they will have played the same teams as last season after 20 games (counting promoted and relegated teams as the same).
Swans need to win at Anfield on boxing to have more points at the same stage as last season, even a draw and Swans will be doing worse.
Swans strong second half to the season was because Swans best players Siggy and Llorente came to the fore.
Swans no longer have those two players, to hope Swans can match what happened last season Swans need to get a Siggy and a Llorente which equates to a £60M spend on two players in those positions in January. [Post edited 23 Dec 2017 21:42]
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More importantly, we’ve not got an obvious goal source this time and (unless it’s us) there doesn’t appear to be a Sunderland or Villa to reserve one of the relegation slots.
It’s quite conceivable we get soundly thrashed at Anfield and still get out of this, it’s going to take a savvy managerial appointment and a good transfer window though. I’d probably never have considered it in the past, but I’d be tempted to give Pulis a shot now. | | | |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:06 - Dec 23 with 7646 views | Jack_Kass |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 21:33 - Dec 23 by trampie |
Last season after 19 matches we had played everybody once ?
This season we have played lowly Palace twice and not played Liverpool at all.
20 games, playing one team twice and everybody else once, 10 home games, 10 away games might be a better indication than the 19 game mark due to the imbalance of home and away matches, but there again somebody would have played super Man City twice (is it B'mouth - are they in the bottom 3 ?) while Swans have played a poor team twice.
Incredibly after Swans next game they will have played the same teams as last season after 20 games (counting promoted and relegated teams as the same).
Swans need to win at Anfield on boxing to have more points at the same stage as last season, even a draw and Swans will be doing worse.
Swans strong second half to the season was because Swans best players Siggy and Llorente came to the fore.
Swans no longer have those two players, to hope Swans can match what happened last season Swans need to get a Siggy and a Llorente which equates to a £60M spend on two players in those positions in January. [Post edited 23 Dec 2017 21:42]
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Yes there are anomalies with the schedule, but 19 games is always 50%, and so a reliable baseline, especially so in regards to the final total needed to avoid relegation.
Any teams with skewed schedules, such as Bournemouth, still need to reach the same total.
As I said, chronologically we are 9 days ahead of where we were last year, due to the season finishing a week earlier, to compensate the World Cup.
Thats why 'bottom at xmas' can be misleading, due to us playing 2 games less at that point, than we did last year. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:08 - Dec 23 with 7635 views | Bobby_Fischer |
So what your saying is we need points? |  |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:08 - Dec 23 with 7634 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:06 - Dec 23 by Jack_Kass |
Yes there are anomalies with the schedule, but 19 games is always 50%, and so a reliable baseline, especially so in regards to the final total needed to avoid relegation.
Any teams with skewed schedules, such as Bournemouth, still need to reach the same total.
As I said, chronologically we are 9 days ahead of where we were last year, due to the season finishing a week earlier, to compensate the World Cup.
Thats why 'bottom at xmas' can be misleading, due to us playing 2 games less at that point, than we did last year. |
I think 20 games is a better indicator than 19 games as home advantage is big. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:09 - Dec 23 with 7633 views | JBT95 |
The worrying thing about this season is that we will have played 22 games before we can sign any players realistically.
If we leave it to the last minute, which we basically always do in January, that's 25 games played. So 13 games remaining. |  | | |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:09 - Dec 23 with 7633 views | Jack_Kass |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:08 - Dec 23 by Bobby_Fischer |
So what your saying is we need points? |
22 of them!
35 is the magic number. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:14 - Dec 23 with 7615 views | trampie |
I had previously worked it out, before last season definitely, might have been the one before that, can't remember now and at that point in time 35 pts and you was more likely to go down than stay up and 36pts you was more likely to stay up than go down. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:20 - Dec 23 with 7592 views | Jack_Kass |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:08 - Dec 23 by trampie |
I think 20 games is a better indicator than 19 games as home advantage is big. |
The avg points total reflects both home and away though? Teams who have played 10 home, and 9 away, will always reach equilibrum, with those having played the vice versa split of games, doing the same.
Its not saying who is and isn't going down, its looking at the amount of points needed to survive, from this stage of the season, statistically speaking
I will do the same after 20 and see if it projects any difference! | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:24 - Dec 23 with 7580 views | Jack_Kass |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:14 - Dec 23 by trampie |
I had previously worked it out, before last season definitely, might have been the one before that, can't remember now and at that point in time 35 pts and you was more likely to go down than stay up and 36pts you was more likely to stay up than go down. |
Yes I have used the final points total of the 18th team, so you can still be relegated via GD etc, but this is the minimum total you need to survive.
I could add +1 to the total to make it 36, but then this wouldnt be the true projected minimum. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:28 - Dec 23 with 7562 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:24 - Dec 23 by Jack_Kass |
Yes I have used the final points total of the 18th team, so you can still be relegated via GD etc, but this is the minimum total you need to survive.
I could add +1 to the total to make it 36, but then this wouldnt be the true projected minimum. |
From what I recall I looked at the points totals of the 17th and 18th placed teams in the 3 point, 20 team, Premier League era. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:35 - Dec 23 with 7537 views | Jack_Kass |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:28 - Dec 23 by trampie |
From what I recall I looked at the points totals of the 17th and 18th placed teams in the 3 point, 20 team, Premier League era. |
Yes but if the 17th team finishes 1 point clear of the team below, the minimum points total needed to survive is still the same (18th position - final points) | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:46 - Dec 23 with 7506 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 22:35 - Dec 23 by Jack_Kass |
Yes but if the 17th team finishes 1 point clear of the team below, the minimum points total needed to survive is still the same (18th position - final points) |
If looking at teams finishing on the same points as a team in 18th place, relegation on goal difference might be deemed to be 50 - 50 if two teams are on the same points, if it's 3 teams then a it might be said to be a 1 in 3 chance.
I factored that into my calculations at the time. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 23:56 - Dec 23 with 7425 views | Smellyplumz |
We are going down 👇 |  |
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""Although I cannot promise or predict the future, I can guarantee one thing - the current board of directors will always fight, as we have done over the last 12 years, to work together as one with the Supporters Trust to make 100% sure that Swansea City football club remains the number one priority in all our thoughts and in every decision we make." | | Poll: | Huw Jenkins |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 00:36 - Dec 24 with 7394 views | The_undecided |
The difference this year there is no Siggy, even if a new manager comes in to steady the ship doing a bit of an allardyce, realiscally they will not have any new players in until mid Jan and 15/16 games left to turn it around. Draws are not going to cut it now, goals have to come and getting a draw at home to Palace is an improvement but not good enough. | | | |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 00:45 - Dec 24 with 7376 views | Rancid |
I don't want us to go down one iota but its been torture the last few seasons and not an entirely enjoyable experience at all especially with whats gone on off the pitch as well, so if we did go down it would be with a heavy heart but a clearer head.
Time to rebuild then. |  | | |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 04:46 - Dec 24 with 7310 views | LeonWasGod |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 00:36 - Dec 24 by The_undecided |
The difference this year there is no Siggy, even if a new manager comes in to steady the ship doing a bit of an allardyce, realiscally they will not have any new players in until mid Jan and 15/16 games left to turn it around. Draws are not going to cut it now, goals have to come and getting a draw at home to Palace is an improvement but not good enough. |
Or Llorente. Given he hardly got going until this time last year, he pretty much got a dozen goals or so in the second half of the season.
We've got nobody who can do that, with the possible exception of Wilf, but he doesn't look fit/uninjured enough to do it any more.
We're basically asking Tammy, Ayew, Nath, Narsingh or Routs to start hitting 20 goals a season form. Given what they've offered so far, how stupid does that sound? |  | | |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 14:06 - Dec 27 with 7052 views | Jack_Kass |
Updated for game 20
All stats still point to 35 as the magic number
Average points needed over the last 10 seasons, is 18 (adding to B'mouth's 17, equals 35)
Average rise in point avg is 0.06, giving the projected team in 18th place an average 0.91, which x 38 would give us 34.58 (35)
Swansea City now need to average 1.22 points a game to hit 35 points, needing a 0.57 rise from now (0.65) until the end of the season. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 11:11 - Dec 29 with 6889 views | trampie |
Teams in 17th and 18th are well up on pts on teams in the same position at the same stage last season. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 11:16 - Dec 29 with 6881 views | max936 |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 11:11 - Dec 29 by trampie |
Teams in 17th and 18th are well up on pts on teams in the same position at the same stage last season. |
Gonna need 38 pts minimum to stay up this year, more than likely it'll be 40pts though. |  |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 11:26 - Dec 29 with 6855 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 11:16 - Dec 29 by max936 |
Gonna need 38 pts minimum to stay up this year, more than likely it'll be 40pts though. |
The team that went down in 18th place last season had 34pts, the team in 17th (last place to stay up) had 40pts, the team in 18th had such a poor goal difference that they would have needed 41 pts to stay up.
Some bottom teams went well second half of last season Swansea being a good example, no saying what will happen second half of this season but there are signs that it might take a high amount of points to stay up.
This 3pts for a win makes things complicated to gauge how many points it will take to stay up, years ago there was a set amount of points that the league would dish out, this 3pts for a win means some matches 3pts are awarded and other matches only 2 pts are awarded, making the overall amount of points unknown. [Post edited 29 Dec 2017 11:52]
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 11:50 - Dec 29 with 6812 views | Jack_Kass |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 11:16 - Dec 29 by max936 |
Gonna need 38 pts minimum to stay up this year, more than likely it'll be 40pts though. |
Very unlikely, 40 pts hasn't been needed in 10 years and I believe not since West Ham went down with 42 pts, 15 years ago.
Would need a serious drop of form and squeeze in the middle of the table, as that season only 10 pts seperated 18th and 8th. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 11:59 - Dec 29 with 6781 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 11:50 - Dec 29 by Jack_Kass |
Very unlikely, 40 pts hasn't been needed in 10 years and I believe not since West Ham went down with 42 pts, 15 years ago.
Would need a serious drop of form and squeeze in the middle of the table, as that season only 10 pts seperated 18th and 8th. |
If you look at it from one of the relegated teams point of view like Hull and Sunderland and they could say they needed 41pts to stay up last season, look at from Swans, Palace, Burnley and Watford point of view and they could say they could have got away with 34pts and still stayed up. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:11 - Dec 29 with 6757 views | Jack_Kass |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 11:11 - Dec 29 by trampie |
Teams in 17th and 18th are well up on pts on teams in the same position at the same stage last season. |
Yes but they are on the same points as 3 of the last 4 years, and the highest points total in that time was 37, the lowest 33. | |
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