Pressure valve released with a win at Preston, QPR have a decent chance to back that up with more success on the road at Cardiff on Boxing Day.
Lancashire and District Senior League >>> Monday December 26, 2022 >>> Kick off 17.15 >>> Weather — Breezy but dry >>> Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff, Wales isn’t it
Queens Park Rangers’ 1-0 victory at Preston North End last weekend was a timely release on the pressure valve.
QPR have not been shy of embarking on long winless runs in recent seasons. The sequence of one goal and one point from six was the eighth time Rangers have gone at least half a dozen games without a win since the 2016/17 season — Ian Holloway had three of those, Steve McClaren and this season one apiece, and Mark Warburton three of his own. On two of those occasions the sequences eventually stretched out to ten without victory, and there have been a couple of other incidents of a win being sandwiched by three defeats on either side, or a winless sequence of five games. There’s a real sense of ‘here we go again’ when it happens, and they become self-perpetuating things — look, hear, feel and see how flat the crowd was for what was ostensibly a big game against Burnley last time out at Loftus Road. Zero hope and optimism from either the fans or the team of getting anything from the game that had, let’s not forget, been picked by Sky because it was ostensibly first v sixth in the table.
That the latest deadlock breaker came at Preston was something of a surprise. As I said last week, George Kulscar, Michel Ngonge et al having their arse handed to them by Brian McBride 20 years ago should have no bearing on what happens in the same fixture in 2021/22, but again perhaps through a little self-perpetuation there are grounds where QPR seem to do well (Cardiff being one of those) and others not so well (Preston and everywhere round and about and through and around Preston)… and then there’s Nottingham Forest. Rangers had won one of 17 visits to Deepdale going back to 1980 prior to last week, and they fare similarly poorly on what is essentially the same trip to Blackburn (one win from 18 and six defeats in a row) and Burnley (one win from 12, again dating back to 1980). Bit awkward really, considering we’ve been lumped in a division this season so heavily skewed to that part of the county that this trip to Cardiff counts as one of our more local fixtures for Boxing Day — Rangers have a six game away sequence of Hull, Huddersfield, Middlesbrough, Rotherham, Blackpool and Wigan coming up on the horizon. More relevantly, Preston were playing well, with four wins from five, prior to the match and QPR, as we know, were absolutely not.
More surprising than the result was the performance, particularly first half when QPR could and should have been at least two goals to the good. Delighted as I was to see midfielders suddenly getting up in support of Lyndon Dykes and posing a goal threat, one of the niggles I have about this group of players when they go on one of their losing runs is we know it is within them to do better. When Holloway was stringing together losing runs of six matches for fun, he was doing so with a strike force of Idrissa Sylle, Matt Smith and Conor Washington, with Josh Scowen a key man in midfield. Luke Freeman, who hasn’t been able to make the Sheff Utd, Nottingham Forest or Luton Town team since, was the best player in that team by a street, and it was saved from more serious scrapes with relegation only because of Alex Smithies, who at that stage was the best goalkeeper in the Championship and was worth half a dozen points a season on penalty saves alone. It felt more surprising when that team went on winning runs than losing ones.
Although Mark Warburton clearly did a very good job here, taking over the shemozzle left behind by Schteve McClaren and building it into the base of a decent top half team despite losing many of his best players along the way, it does still bother me that we came back out of lockdown with a team led by Jordan Hugill, Nahki Wells, Bright Osayi-Samuel, Ebere Eze and Ilias Chair, and seven games that included matches with the worst five teams in the league, and collapsed out of play-off contention with no answers or explanations from management other than it was an unprecedented situation that we, for some reason, coped with the worst of any team in the division. That felt like a huge missed opportunity because we knew that team was capable of so much more, and when you see this team we’ve got now play as they did in the first half at Deepdale, or against Cardiff in the corresponding fixture, and then watch the slop they phoned in against Coventry and Burnley it does niggle away at me somewhat. We know the team lacks depth and has issues in defence, midfield and attack, but it’s capable of so much better than it was showing over the prior few weeks. "Critch has come in and simplified it all for us” rings a little bit hollow when just a week prior we were being told how well everybody had responded to Paul Hall — and yes I know Burnley were/are good and we were missing key players and upheaval and uncertainty etc etc.
Still, it’s been amazing to see how that one win — which let’s face it, for all the improvements, could easily have been a draw or even a loss but for one brilliant Seny Dieng save and a Brad Potts volley going a foot wide of the post — has relaxed everybody and improved the mood. The club are back to posting amusing Christmas videos of the players larking about, and the message board has been a completely different place — notwithstanding Elon Musk acolytes parroting their master’s talking points at people. That mood will improve further still with a win at Cardiff, which is a different kettle of fish to Preston altogether — theirs is a team playing poorly, with two wins in ten, none in four, with basement dwellers Blackpool and Hull leaving here with four points between them from their last two matches on a ground where QPR have an excellent record of seven wins and just five defeats from their last 17 visits. QPR, albeit aided by a scandalously bad refereeing decision in the first half of the game, destroyed Cardiff at Loftus Road not two months ago. Having turned the tap back on last week at Deepdale it would be nice to keep that flowing again in a game where the biggest threats seem to come from our dodgy record live on Sky, and the omnipresence of a gaffe-prone poison dwarf with the whistle. As of this Boxing Day no team in the country has been refereed by Keith Stroud as often as QPR’s 34 separate, ball-aching occasions. Guys, we’ve done our time, mercy. Mercy.
For all the upheaval and problems through the first 23 games, QPR are still well in contention this season. It would be nice to see them begin the second half of the campaign by starting to cement that with a win here.
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I’ll use this space, if I may, to wish both regular readers a calm, peaceful and hopefully happy Christmas.
It’s been an unbelievably tough and bleak year, to go with the tough and bleak years we thought and hoped were one offs leading up to it, and 2023 doesn’t look like it’s going to get a great deal better with the complete collapse of the country’s public services now well in swing. If you use QPR as your escapism, they haven’t exactly been doing their bit either.
I hope, though, in a tiny way, LFW has been able help. So soon after the collapse of last season I was loathe to start the all consuming, monotonous routine of covering this club and keeping this site going to a standard I deem acceptable as soon as July 30 at Blackburn, and doing so with the rail system falling apart around has indeed, at times, been a chore. Mick Beale didn't help. But I’ve received so many lovely comments and messages recently, be that on here, on social media, by email, or in person at games and in The Crown and Sceptre and they’re all massively appreciated — not to mention the loyalty shown by our Patreon subscribers, now the lifeblood keeping LFW going, shortly to be rewarded with a lovely interview with Don Masson. A mass blocking and muting of the accounts that exist to make my life a misery, and for a while did exactly that, means I am now hearing these voices more than those of people who think I’m a twat and think it’s vitally important I hear that opinion. Whether it’s on the tube, out running, walking to work, or at the theatre last week, the QPR hat that guards my now shiny pate from the elements is attracting "You R’s” in record numbers. I still don’t think fans of other clubs get that quite like we do at Rangers.
I’m in a marginally better place than I was, but I know many of you aren’t. We’re a small, but broad and inclusive church at QPR, and the LFW community reflects that well. If you’re having a great Christmas and in a good place, then congratulations and good luck. If you’re doing it tough, know that there is a place here for you where you are welcome. There’s no better example of this than Robert Donnellan’s outstanding piece from August. We enjoy the highs together, we suffer the lows together, we argue and fight like any family, but we are QPR, and as ever I am counting the days until I’m standing among you again. Enjoy the turkey in the meantime. You R’s.
Team News: The good news — Luke Amos and Tyler Roberts have been in full training and are back in contention for the first time since the World Cup break. Ilias Chair is back in the building after his watching brief with Morocco and shouldn’t need too much work to get back up to speed despite only getting a half of action out in Qatar. The bad news is Stefan Johansen is only just at "back on the grass” status having started running this week so can probably be discounted until the New Year. Suspicions that Leon Balogun may have snuck back north of the border in Mick Beale’s hand luggage intensify, the club have posted missing posters around the W12 area with a modest reward on offer.
With no wins in four games Mark Hudson is looking for a boost for his beleaguered squad from returning troops. Two of their most promising youngsters, Rubin Colwill who got the winner in this fixture last season and Isaak Davies, have started just a single game between them this campaign. Davies is back in training after injuring himself against Derby at the back end of last season but won’t make this game, while Colwill played and scored for the U21s against Sunderland in the week but has featured in less than half the Bluebirds training sessions so far this season and Hudson is reluctant to trust him in the firsts just yet. Ebou Adams was a highly sought after signing from Forest Green’s League Two title winners, but is yet to kick a ball for Cardiff after tearing a muscle from the bone in pre-season at Cambridge in July. The team’s previous star centre back Sean Morrison played in that U21 game on a non-contract basis as he continues to train without a deal following his summer release and injury problems — with a transfer embargo in place for January that one might be a convenient quick fix.
Elsewhere: We start this week with shocking news from the other corner of South Wales where Swanselona have been dealt a blow prior to their trip to Reading on Tuesday evening with the totally unforecastable news that in form left wing back Ryan Manning is refusing to sign a "very generous” contract offer and will wind his current deal down to a free transfer. I know, I know, can’t believe it. Always the ones you suspect the most isn’t it? They’re Sky’s early game on the 27th, while Burnley v Birmingham goes off at 20.00.
That leaves ten fixtures for Boxing Day spread across five different kick off times. The pop-pop have decided to try and catch 1,600 Millwall fans at their most hungover and stuck their game at Watford at midday. Sunderland play Blackburn in the Moany Towbray derby at 12.30.
The pick of the 15.00 games appears to be second placed Sheffield Red Stripe hosting Coventry, who continue to climb the table after a 95th minute Keith Stroud penalty elevated their midweek draw with West Brom to a win. That was yet another of their games in hand following the early season woes with the pitch at their stadium, and this week the EFL metered out a five point deduction for that, suspended pending any further such issues. With Mike Ashley now in charge of the stadium what could possibly go wrong? West Brom, meanwhile, head to Bristol City where Nahki Wells’ trick of turning on the form and fitness just as one lucrative contract comes to an end has been rewarded with another two years added to his deal at Ashton Gate. Insanity.
Four wins and a draw from five games under new boss Michael Carrick had started putting Middlesbrough in the sort of touch that saw us curse them as our pre-season tip for the title, and although they were beaten heavily at Burnley last time out they’ll almost certainly climb well into the top half of the table with a home win against Wigan Warriors who were beaten by Sheff Utd in Kolo Toure’s first match in charge.
Stoke continue to stutter, ranked down in seventeenth and now facing significant Premier League interest in Australia’s star centre back Harry Souttar. You’d think a trip to Rotherham represents a great chance to post some points but Alex Neil has a dreadful record against the Millers, winning just one of nine games as a manager and losing his last three visits to the New York Stadium. That appointment hasn’t fired the Potters at all, a squad that on paper should be doing substantially better than this — striking options of Tyrese Campbell, Nick Powell, Dwight Gayle, Liam Delap and D’Magio Wright-Phillips, compared to what we’re selecting from, is nuts. Gayle has zero goals from 20 appearances so far, another one of the "sign a fucking striker” brigade to bear in mind — wages won’t have been cheap either.
Hull fourth bottom on 26 points and Blackpool one place and two points below them is something of a six pointer. Preston Knob End at home to Huddersfield is this Boxing Day’s footballing trip to the in laws.
The late game sees Lutown finally back in action after their last home game was postponed, hosting Norwich. The Canaries’ 2-0 home defeat to Blackburn was greeted by boos and a mass walk out by supporters whose patience with Dean Smith’s turgid possession football and laboured promotion push with the best team and resources in the division has finally snapped. Smith bit back himself in post match saying he was pleased the next game was away which… hasn’t gone down well. Probably needs a win now. Look in to see if he gets it at 19.45.
The really good news is we get to do it all again on Thursday.
Referee: Keith drops in for Christmas.
Cardiff: Cardiff City made 17 permanent or loan signings during the summer to prepare for the first full season under Steve Morison’s guidance — 14 players went out the other way. For this overhaul, Morison was afforded nine league matches to bed his new team in and was sacked after a 1-0 loss at Huddersfield in September (they’d won 3-2 at Middlesbrough the previous game). At that point that had won two, drawn two and lost five for eight points (0.88 a game). Since then they have played 13 times, winning four, drawing three and losing six for 15 points (1.153). At the halfway point they currently sit twentieth in the table with 26 points from 23 games. If they perform exactly the same again in the second half of the season then that 46 point total would have been enough for safety in seven of the last ten seasons. The Bluebirds come into this fixture without a win in four, and have won just two of their last ten, losing six. Their record at home so far is 4-3-5 but they’ve won none of the last three (Blackpool, Sheff Utd, Hull) here, one of the last seven and two of the last ten on their own ground. It’s also an away game that has suited QPR in recent times. They have won their last two visits to this ground 1-0 and since the fixture was rekindled in 1999/00 they have won seven, drawn five and lost five of their 17 games at both the new stadium and Ninian Park. Callum Robinson is top scorer here with four.
QPR: The surprise 1-0 win at Preston last weekend snapped a run of one point and one goal from six games, and four straight defeats. It also halted a run of three defeats and a draw from four away games, which had been preceded by four wins from the prior five road trips. Only Sheff Utd (seven) and Preston (six), have won more away games than QPR in this year’s Championship — mind you half the division have scored more than our 12 goals on the road, including three of the bottom four. Rangers are now sixth in the table, ten points shy of Sheff Utd in the second automatic spot, but also only ten points above Blackpool who are third bottom — there is just one win between us and Sunderland in thirteenth, and two between us and Stoke in seventeenth. The win at Deepdale already places Neil Critchley favourably among his predecessors in the ‘new manager bounce’ stakes: Mark Warburton won one of his first four league games (W1 D1 L2); Schteve McClaren won one of his first six (W1 D1 L4); Ian Holloway won one of his first seven (W1 L6); Jimmy Floyd-Hasslebaink none of his first seven (D5 L2); Chris Ramsey one of his first seven (W1 L6); Harry Redknapp one of his first seven (W1 D3 L3); Mark Hughes one of his first eight (W1 D2 L5).
Prediction: We’re once again indebted to The Art of Football for agreeing to sponsor our Prediction League and provide prizes. You can get involved by lodging your prediction here or sample the merch from our sponsor’s QPR collection here. Congrats to Aston who was ‘top at Christmas’, his prize is winging its way to him. Meanwhile, last year’s champion Cheesy tells us…
"A great week for the club which I wasn't expecting. First the display at Preston, then the B team and then doing over the Spuds. The Under 18s seem to have improved a lot since I watched them last. On to Cardiff and what to expect. God knows, but after a positive week, I am going for a win.”
Cheesy’s Prediction: Cardiff 1-2 QPR. Scorer — Lyndon Dykes
LFW’s Prediction: Cardiff 0-1 QPR. Scorer — Lyndon Dykes
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