Predictions - 7th

7th - Rochdale

There's very few supporters predicting the top three finish that they may have done a year ago. Indeed, it would appear that the majority are predicting "top half" with some even suggesting things lower down. The bubbly has definitely not been stuck in the fridge in anticipation of the year ahead.

It's certainly understandable why supporters are feeling this way. We've had a team which has just fallen ever so short in the past couple of seasons, and it's inevitable that supporters will look for how we can improve on those perceived shortcomings and weren't expecting a Summer where we recruited more goalkeepers than outfield players.

But it has to be said that we are not alone in feeling this way. Looking around the web, these feelings are mirrored at all three of last season's losing Play Off teams, and those teams that you'd expect to kick on for this season. With the exception of Notts County. Negativity isn't the word, it's more disappointment that teams haven't recruited over the Summer to the extent that supporters wanted. Clearly, financial common sense has hit home at many clubs this Summer.

So far as for judging where Dale will finish this season, it's been a case of asking myself whether we are a better or worse side than last season, and that for me is the key thing. For all the disappointments that we've not recruited a Stephen Foster style defensive lynchpin to tighten up our back line or signed that 6'3 striker, who's equally as good in the air as on the floor, and can add 15 to 20 goals a season, have we gone from being a side that has comfortably made the Play Offs over the last two seasons to one who is no longer good enough to do so?

I'd have to say the answer to that is no.

From a goalkeeping point of view, we've drafted in Kenny Arthur plus the young lad from Leeds. This position has been a bone of contention for many supporters, who felt that Sam Russell had been good enough. But there is only so many times you can get away with describing a keeper as unlucky as his shots get parried to opposition strikers.

Time will show whether Athur is an improvement in that area, but it was our own goalkeeping coach who has recommended Arthur having worked with him previously which speaks volumes to me. Add to that the disappointment shown by the Flag waves at his departure from the Crown Ground.

Defensively, we are down simply on numbers having lost four defenders at the end of last season. But three of those four contributed in total one league start last season, and arguably we'd already made one replacement for them by signing Craig Dawson late last season. Perhaps if we'd drafted him into the club in June, there'd be a different mindset amongst the fanbase.

Much will depend on how Dawson fares in the opening weeks of the season whilst McArdle is out injured, and then whether Keith Hill can work on the partnership of the young Irisheffieldman and Stanton. Both are fine players individually, but their pairing can be certainly tweaked to the benefit of the team.

From a midfield point of view, I can only see improvement. Jonah and Toner developed a good partnership last season and the addition of Jason Kennedy can only see that central midfield pairing taken to the next level. Throw into that the encouraging displays in pre-season from Callum Byrne who looks to be another one from the Chris Beech conveyor belt, and it's no wonder Clark Keltie is stuck out in the cold.

Out wide, we will be once again be spoilt for choice more so than any club in the division. If anything, we'll be boosted as the suggestions are that Kallum Higginbotham has been returning to the sort of form that excited us all back in 2007-8, after suffering from the difficult second album syndrome last season. I know its a footballing cliché, but if he can maintain that form, it will be like signing a new player as his contribution in 2008-9 was negligible.

Higginbotham's return to form, plus the availability of the ever reliable Buckley, Thompson and Rundle puts us in a position where Hilcroft can select two from four possible wingers, with no concerns at all about who he picks. Furthermore, with the seven sub rule for the 2009-10 season, this might even become an extra weapon to his armoury and an advantage over his peers as we pinpoint the 65 minute mark to throw on two new wingers to terrorise weary full backs.

Up front is something of an enigma for Dale. If you asked the supporters, what position do we need to strengthen, a great percentage would cite up front as being the priority, with Glenn Murray never really being replaced in the eighteen months since his departure. This despite the fact that the league table suggests that goal scoring has been our greatest asset throughout the Hilcroft era.

We have the return of Jon Shaw who will at least give us something different, though history would suggest that the management are not the greatest fans of any of the combinations involving Dagnall, Le Fondre and Shaw, and hence we've seen forward pairings with Thompson or Buckley used as the "big man" up front. Whatever we go with up front, we won't suffer for the loss of Lee Thorpe and we'll continue to score goals aplenty.

So overall looking at the squad, despite being slightly down on numbers, it's only really at the back where we have suffered in terms of personnel, but as mentioned, we've pretty much lost non contributing players so major injury crisis aside, it shouldn't affect us to the level that some have predicted.

So are we worse off than we were last season when we made the Play Offs? Most certainly not, and that's why I have us down for another Play Off position for my prediction. At the very, very, very least, we are just as good as we were last season when we finished 6th.

Now it's not all a case of pretending everything is wonderful in the Dale camp. There are concerns about the finances at the club. The budget has been cut dramatically over the Summer, with the budget provided to the management probably taking into account more revenue from season ticket sales than what we have sold and the income from the new shirt sales which will hopefully be a great surprise in everyone's Christmas stocking this year.

Will further cuts be required? Probably not, but our resolute will no doubt be tested over the season with bids for some of our young starlets, especially with so many of them out of contract at the end of this coming season. Will the board sit tight and risk the players running their contracts down? History suggests to the contrary, and it also suggests that when our prize assets are indeed sold that Keith Hill isn't exactly given a king's ransom to play with.

Finances will also hit us at key areas like the January transfer window. Most Dale fans are now more financially realistic than in previous years, and now rightfully see the transfer windows as times to retain the squad rather than strengthen. For some of our peers, it will be that opportunity to add to their squad and an advantage they will hold over us.

Amongst the concerns over lack of recruitment, one thing that has not been considered by many is the way young players are handled at Spotland. Twelve months ago, the likes of Will Buckley and Joe Thompson were hardly considered by anyone. Buckley had only had one league start to his name, and Thompson was universally derided at every opportunity.

A year later, and arguably Buckley has been moulded into our most influential player and Thompson may well have to produce a season culminating in winning goals which secure us the league title and the FA Cup, followed by winning the Eurovision song contest with the FA Cup final song that he wrote for the squad to earn any sort of recognition in certain quarters, but both have been developed from fringe players to become important first team players, and its that commitment to making our own players better players which has been the hallmark of the Hilcroft era.

Who's to say that those improvements won't continue, and similar development of the myriad of young players that we have at the club? By the end of 2010, it might be a Brizzle, or a Brown or a Byrne or even a Higginbotham that has us so excited and worried about being picked up the circulating higher division vultures?

We have a settled squad, one which is marginally better than it was last season (and certainly not weaker) and perhaps we are now better equipped to dealing with situations like our captain missing half the season through injury, and whilst we'd all like another couple of players in the squad (with "we" including both the board and the management) to help push to that next level, realistically we have to make the best of what we have, without putting the future of the club at risk.

This squad has proved itself to be more than just capable of competing in this division, with away victories at two of the top three sides last season, and whilst the cover within the squad might be slightly thinner, it still remains and there is always an answer to "What happens if.......".

For us not to make the Play Offs again this season, look at our peers and ask yourself, have we become a worse side over the Summer than Shrewsbury, than Morecambe, than Bradford, than Dagenham etc. There's very few teams who I would say have strengthened with many visibly weaker than last time round.

So all in all, it will be Play Offs again for Dale this season.

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