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Reply | Lies, damned lies and statistics
at 17:34 19 Mar 2020
No, not what I was getting at. This is about context when providing information (data) that ultimately affects how we react or behave. I am saying as it is, it has got many running scared and behaving irrationally which ultimately is not good for society. As seen in panic buying. |
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Reply | Lies, damned lies and statistics
at 17:30 19 Mar 2020
I understand that, my point is more to do with context. There has been barely any mention of the numbers that die from flu in any one normal season. When you look at one set of numbers without context they can look frighting. I believe this is driving the behaviour of many people in the UK. e.g. panic buying.
Media also use language that also dramatise and inflame, for example death rate soars or leaps, deadly bug, killer bug. All in the name of clicks and sales. If they reported this for a standard flu season, how would people react, similarly I am guessing. |
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Thread | Lies, damned lies and statistics
at 15:27 19 Mar 2020
Apologies in advance for another Covid 19 thread and I may well be stating the obvious here, so forgive me if I am.
However I've been doing a lot of thinking about the "numbers" regarding CV19 and the context in which the media especially are simply focussing on some very distinct and general datasets, number of cases, deaths, etc and whilst numbers like in Italy of 475 dying in a day on the face of it are shocking. I cannot help being concerned that all these numbers are somewhat out of context.
So I decided to look to the ONS for real data on the typical death rate in England & Wales and found data on the on website. Specially looking at winter mortality rates.It makes for some interesting reading and brings real context to the number in general. Whilst accepting that this is horrendous and is going to cause 1000s of deaths in the UK. If the media reported all the data on all illness and mortality rates it would contextualise this and not sensationalise it? Which I think IS the very cause of panic and fear in the majority of people.
Have a look here.....
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/dea
In the years 2017/2018 daily mortality rates are circa 1200 a day across the board. In March 2018 the daily mortality rate hovers around 1600 a day so approx 49,000 died in March 2018 of various causes.The causes are broken down in the spread sheet.
My point is that even though most of the CV19 deaths to come may well be additional, to give context to the "numbers" the media and to some extent government should be trying to quell the panic and worry and not sensationalising the "numbers". If the Daily Fail printed a headline saying 49,000 to die in March, all hell would break loose as it's just a number totally out of contex. This is what is happening now, and although the situation is dire, subduing the fear could go a long way to stopping the panic buying and fear stoking that seems to be rife now.
OR is that the plan????
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Reply | Non alcoholic beer recommendations
at 22:22 2 Mar 2020
If you like lager Beck's Blue is the best, was off the booze for a long time last year due to illness as well and it was the best I tasted, can honestly not tell the difference in taste between that and the real thing. I still drink it now.
Nanny state also good if you like IPA beers. |
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Reply | Worst teacher back in the day? Name and shame...
at 22:36 16 Feb 2020
Dunns Lane Head was Mr Williams, he loved the egg didn't he, got caught with a football and got it confiscated, quite a few got slippered though, used to make us practice line outs and scrums in the yard. Never forgotten that. |
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Reply | Oldest person to have a grandparent still alive
at 09:14 7 Feb 2020
I lost my last grandparent (Grandmother) last month aged 97, I'm 50 in a couple of months, she smoked until she was in her 80's and drank like a fish in her younger days. Sadly she had dementia the last few years but until the last few days before she passed was physically fine. She lived alone until last year. Sad to lose that generational connection. |
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Reply | Huawei
at 18:30 28 Jan 2020
It's not that at all, (they do, but the UK and US do not make the network components). It's purely the fact that it's ridiculously cheap, compared to the other vendors Nokia and Ericsson. Plus Huawei are offering added services thrown in, i.e. they will design, install commission and manage the whole process for free or a negligible fee. In the past Ericsson and Nokia charged a pretty penny for this as well. |
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Reply | Any CCTV recommendations
at 11:49 16 Jan 2020
If you have got decent wifi (Outside) then Ring is a very good option. Although they also do wired outdoor cameras as well. Very easy to set up, but you will have to pay a subscription to maintain the recordings. I have the doorbell and it is great but as said only on when motion is detected. Ring also do a stick up cam, which is battery operated so no wires at all. Battery last a surprisingly long time.
I also have Hikconnect CCTV PoE (power over ethernet) cameras as well due to a burglary we had last year. They are inexpensive and pretty straightforward to connect and provide full HD recording quality day and night. They work over data cable (Cat5/6/7) and are connected to a NVR (Network Video Recorder) which has a hard drive in. I have 4 HD cameras and a 3TB HDD, it has capacity for 3 weeks of 24/7 recording). The whole set up was less than £500. There are less expensive non branded versions around but Hikvision are a big brand and you will find lots of cheap installers around as well. |
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Reply | Ski -ing equipment trousers jackets etc
at 23:53 24 Nov 2019
Decathlon all the way, top quality stuff at very reasonable prices, you'll get the lot for not a lot of cash. They sell eveything as well and a good returns policy. Shame there isn't a store in Wales, closest one is Reading, have been a couple of times, worth the drive.
Also Costco in Cardiff worth a look, you can get cheap gear in there this time of year.
Seriously worth getting your own gear for skiing/boarding, it last years, even if you think you won't go again. |
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Reply | Best place to get Euros
at 14:33 5 Aug 2019
Open a Monzo account, no fees on transactions and almost close to interbank rate. I'm done with going to Ramsden's and the like, these new internet banks and cards are the way forward. Unless you are going into the back of beyond, how many places don't take cards these days?
Also tells you immediately what you have spent and the rate so dead easy to keep track of your cash. Only down side is you can only get £200 cash out free, after that its 3%, but use it like a credit card and its no problem. |
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Reply | Free VPN for PC
at 19:35 1 Aug 2019
No such thing as a free VPN, you'll either have to pay for it with cash or they will be selling you personal data to all and sundry.
Depending on what you need it for you can set your own up using OpenVPN which is free source software, you'll need. device to run the server (Rapberry Pi for example) and a network to connect to e.g your home network if you wanted it for unblocking UK content when abroad. If you want to un geoblock other countries his won't work so easily. Pretty easy to set up if you are reasonably techy.
For a paid VPN I use PIA for £40 for a year, and very good. Nord also good. Worth every penny also. [Post edited 1 Aug 2019 19:36]
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Reply | Anyone...
at 10:39 22 Jul 2019
Hi Wayne,
Just mentioned to my brother who is a meter and HV engineer for several DNO's.
His view is that the DNO will replace the cut out and it looks like you have a fused neutral which will automatically mean a new cut out. However whether they will move the new cut out will be at their discretion. Generally where the cable runs up through the floor as yours is they just replace the cut out at that point.
They may however put two cutouts in, one where you old one is and then run another tail to another one at your desired location and you can box the one close to the floor. Worth asking. He said it would be unlikely that they would run and joint a new cable in the footpath or anywhere else. Re the cut out he said he would do it if he was asked, a lot of the engineers are contract like him and will generally be helpful, a few cups of tea and being pleasant always goes far!
BTW I did meet you in a taxi going to Ar$enal away a few years ago with e Paul!
Simon |
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Reply | Howdens
at 11:19 19 Jul 2019
I've got an account, not a builder myself, but manage a couple of properties, I used them for a few things in my house, I got roughly 80% discount of their "retail trade price", yes it's a bit of stupid system to allow the trade to make their margin but I find it pretty pointless system as the retail trade price is ridiculous.
However I found that lowest price in on par with most other building/kitchen suppliers if you go and haggle. I'm sure if you are spending serious money you would probably get it at close to cost + a few %.
All these companies are desperate for business. As others have said, go in and open an account, tell them your self employed and ask for a quote on what you are after, the quote will detail the discount, if your not happy with it keep asking for a better price or get a check price from another supplier and they will match it, worked for me every time.
Have found their customer service is second to none, had a couple of small marks on some doors I had delivered and they changed them with no questions. |
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Reply | Tour de France
at 13:12 13 Jul 2019
Get Eurosport player, £40 for a year, well worth the money, get all the grand tours plus loads of other cycling if you're into that, plus lot's of other sport, Le Mans etc. You won't regret it. As said by Bluey Carlton is a legend, and you also have Sean Kelly who is superb. They are streets ahead of ITV. |
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Reply | Some Skill by this Pilot.
at 20:37 15 Oct 2018
Everyday occurrence in many airports. Crab landings the norm is crosswinds like this, if there was any problem the pilot would have gone around (aborted landing) and either tried again or diverted, all of these are potential outcomes factored into every flight.
Just have a look on https://www.flightradar24.com/51.14,-3.01/9 and see how many flights are in the air at any one time in this type of weather or for a pilots view look on https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news-13/ and see these landings don't even make it onto the pilots own forum. Some interesting stuff on there though! |
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