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- will be carrying Covid. It could be the person next to you. Frightening. Perhaps wear a mask folks. Take hand gel.
[Post edited 11 Sep 2021 10:59]
Swansea Indepenent Poster Of The Year 2021. Dr P / Mart66 / Roathie / Parlay / E20/ Duffle was 2nd, but he is deluded and thinks in his little twisted brain that he won. Poor sod. We let him win this year, as he has cried for a whole year. His 14 usernames, bless his cotton socks.
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Over 100 people in the ground today on 21:07 - Sep 11 with 1273 views
Over 100 people in the ground today on 20:46 - Sep 11 by Dr_Winston
Ferguson could do himself a favour if he didn't automatically default to absolutely worst case. As it is he's painted himself as a Cry Wolf type, and that's without the credibility loss suffered by him ignoring the restrictions he recommended for everyone else.
I don’t disagree, but no one will ever know there accuracy of that model. All models are wrong, some are useful. The utility of Ferguson’s model was it that it diverted away from a natural ‘herd immunity’ approach. In retrospect we can see that would have failed ( as it did elsewhere). His more recent modelling has been more optimistic than either the LSHTM and Warwick models which underestimated vaccine and prior immunity. But he, and his old boss, Roy Anderson tend to look on the pessimistic side.
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Over 100 people in the ground today on 21:27 - Sep 11 with 1253 views
Over 100 people in the ground today on 21:07 - Sep 11 by Professor
I don’t disagree, but no one will ever know there accuracy of that model. All models are wrong, some are useful. The utility of Ferguson’s model was it that it diverted away from a natural ‘herd immunity’ approach. In retrospect we can see that would have failed ( as it did elsewhere). His more recent modelling has been more optimistic than either the LSHTM and Warwick models which underestimated vaccine and prior immunity. But he, and his old boss, Roy Anderson tend to look on the pessimistic side.
I would add I am not a great fan of predictive modelling. Most systems are too complex to modelling properly- the modelling guy I work with in Newcastle always wants huge data sets - But he is right, the better the raw ingredient , the better the pie. Modelling in early 2020 had too many variables and unknowns . Government loves them though.
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Over 100 people in the ground today on 21:30 - Sep 11 with 1250 views
Over 100 people in the ground today on 21:27 - Sep 11 by Professor
I would add I am not a great fan of predictive modelling. Most systems are too complex to modelling properly- the modelling guy I work with in Newcastle always wants huge data sets - But he is right, the better the raw ingredient , the better the pie. Modelling in early 2020 had too many variables and unknowns . Government loves them though.
That's probably closer to my view.
Modelling appears to be a useful tool but far from an exact science, and as you say, dependent upon all sorts of variables that can go badly amiss. You can't base policy on models alone.
Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back.
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Over 100 people in the ground today on 21:33 - Sep 11 with 1245 views
Over 100 people in the ground today on 21:27 - Sep 11 by Professor
I would add I am not a great fan of predictive modelling. Most systems are too complex to modelling properly- the modelling guy I work with in Newcastle always wants huge data sets - But he is right, the better the raw ingredient , the better the pie. Modelling in early 2020 had too many variables and unknowns . Government loves them though.
No disrespect to you Prof, but would you agree, that when it comes to this pandemic the scientists are as much use as the bbc weather forecast?
Added to cheer up. I like this song.
[Post edited 11 Sep 2021 23:00]
libera nos a malo
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Over 100 people in the ground today on 21:44 - Sep 11 with 1226 views
Over 100 people in the ground today on 02:54 - Sep 12 by Jack123
lol, mr boring strikes again, the only downside to any board is when you make an appearance , bore off Djack, you sad lonely man.
Oh dear, the rather sad and dull Ronald called me boring when he had no answer and now you ape him... Oh dear.
Question: Remember when you stated, on this board, that you wanted [EDIT - redacted to save Jack123's blushes] is that still the case or are you not a sad and lonely man?
[Post edited 12 Sep 2021 22:52]
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan
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Over 100 people in the ground today (n/t) on 04:06 - Sep 12 with 1092 views
Over 100 people in the ground today on 03:48 - Sep 12 by DJack
Oh dear, the rather sad and dull Ronald called me boring when he had no answer and now you ape him... Oh dear.
Question: Remember when you stated, on this board, that you wanted [EDIT - redacted to save Jack123's blushes] is that still the case or are you not a sad and lonely man?
[Post edited 12 Sep 2021 22:52]
[Post edited 12 Sep 2021 22:55]
libera nos a malo
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Over 100 people in the ground today on 06:53 - Sep 12 with 1064 views
Over 100 people in the ground today on 17:39 - Sep 11 by Professor
You really think that? Real deaths are probably at least double and were suggested to be closer to 20 million in ‘The Economist’. Massive under reporting on India and retrospective analysis in Latin America shows real figures could be three times higher.
Absolute rubbish and you know it. The more you post the more I think youre a CCP BOT. We all know at least 90% of all recorded Covid deaths are people that died of other illness's but tested positive within 28 days using a dodgy test that in reality proves nothing. You'll need to change your alias when it all comes out.
(He She Him)
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Over 100 people in the ground today on 08:47 - Sep 12 with 1028 views
Over 100 people in the ground today on 20:35 - Sep 11 by Jack123
Absolute rubbish, for a so called prof, you come across as a plank to me.
Is it? No. The model was projected without intervention. Boris and Dom were presented with a scenario of 250000 deaths with no change. They changed course. Remember that lockdown last spring, restrictions on travel etc.
As for science- yes its done nothing.
Diagnostics, improvements to therapies, new therapies, Understanding how the virus causes disease to allow better and directed treatments, vaccines. These were all fine down the back of the sofa? Don’t conflate modellers with all the science.
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Over 100 people in the ground today on 08:59 - Sep 12 with 1019 views
Over 100 people in the ground today on 20:55 - Sep 11 by Jack123
Coming to the Uk within the next 6 months I reckon,
The unvax absolutely smashed the vax in that row!!! Looks like that is the way we are heading, firms of vax and unvax on the hunt for eachother ...turn eachothers boozers over.
Fair play to the French ...Viva la resolution
(He She Him)
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Over 100 people in the ground today on 09:59 - Sep 12 with 997 views
Over 100 people in the ground today on 20:55 - Sep 11 by Jack123
Coming to the Uk within the next 6 months I reckon,
Shouldn't one side be wearing masks and be scared of making contact with people...Leftie bullsh*tters are the problem.
"It's what people know about themselves inside that makes them afraid" - "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act" - "The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it"
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Over 100 people in the ground today on 10:01 - Sep 12 with 996 views
There's some real sh/ttst/rr/ing going on in this thread. It's not debate, just rabble rousing.
I took my son to the game, I'm double vaxed, he's 12. We carried on pretty much as normal. I still wear a mask in shops, I try to stay in ventilated areas, like at the pub we went straight tothe beer garden.
I'll still be cautious, I'll have any future jabs but I need to get on with my life. My son needs to have a life. If the unvaccinated want to run the risk, it's their choice, their life...or death. I'll try and balance the risks in my life. I'm not going to hide but I'm not going stupidly gung ho either.
Over 100 people in the ground today on 10:01 - Sep 12 by Catullus
There's some real sh/ttst/rr/ing going on in this thread. It's not debate, just rabble rousing.
I took my son to the game, I'm double vaxed, he's 12. We carried on pretty much as normal. I still wear a mask in shops, I try to stay in ventilated areas, like at the pub we went straight tothe beer garden.
I'll still be cautious, I'll have any future jabs but I need to get on with my life. My son needs to have a life. If the unvaccinated want to run the risk, it's their choice, their life...or death. I'll try and balance the risks in my life. I'm not going to hide but I'm not going stupidly gung ho either.
Did you walk through a crowded bar to get to the beer garden?
(He She Him)
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Over 100 people in the ground today on 10:08 - Sep 12 with 989 views
Over 100 people in the ground today on 10:01 - Sep 12 by Catullus
There's some real sh/ttst/rr/ing going on in this thread. It's not debate, just rabble rousing.
I took my son to the game, I'm double vaxed, he's 12. We carried on pretty much as normal. I still wear a mask in shops, I try to stay in ventilated areas, like at the pub we went straight tothe beer garden.
I'll still be cautious, I'll have any future jabs but I need to get on with my life. My son needs to have a life. If the unvaccinated want to run the risk, it's their choice, their life...or death. I'll try and balance the risks in my life. I'm not going to hide but I'm not going stupidly gung ho either.
I'm double vaccinated. I took my boy to the game yesterday also. Neither of us wore a mask.
I'm just pointing out that in that video one group of people who are so scared of a contagious virus that they feel the need to shut down another group's protest (that is political repression) were choosing to make physical contact with people who they believe to be the unvaxxed spreaders of the virus.
Are you unable to see the disconnect between what they say and what they do?
"It's what people know about themselves inside that makes them afraid" - "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act" - "The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it"
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You got him on the ropes 
