| Is the lock down ending too soon? 04:59 - Jul 1 with 154594 views | Glyn1 |
That's basically it.
Thoughts please. [Post edited 1 Jul 2020 5:00]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:50 - Jul 2 with 3019 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:47 - Jul 2 by Scotia |
Well not really. It seems that the epicentre is a muslim majority area and the timing coincides with Eid. There is no proof of that but it is possible.
That doesn't bode well for Christmas. |
Yes all mass gatherings are risky, that includes religion, sport, mass demonstrations, mass migration to beaches and open air raves and parties. |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:54 - Jul 2 with 3014 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:22 - Jul 2 by exhmrc1 |
As far as the 223 figure it gives a totally false impression because it was the day one of the Health Boards declared cases it hadnt so it is artificially high. Hence the reason that I didnt use it.
The figures for Pillar 2 which are on actual sample dates rather than dates recorded show 14 per day for the last 3 days 13 each for the 2 days before 5 the previous day and 17 the day before that. 90 in a week an average of just under 13 a day. The week before shows 22 for 2 days, 26 the day before that, 16, 20, 31 and 21. ie 158 in a week at a daily average of over 22 so they have gone down from a daily figure of 22 to 13. Part of this is due to Wrexham and Llangefni and as those test are complete it will drop down further. Adding 13 isnt really going to alter things much is it and we dont know where these relate but I strongly suspect it is North Wales due to its proximity to one of the labs rather than the distance to Cardiff.
As far as your other comment it seems you want to follow the English system. Both the Welsh and Scottish governments are following similar paths. It is the UK government that is ignoring the caution and the science rather than Wales. Devolution allows for that but you clearly dont want devolution so I am hardly surprised at your comments.
As I say without the Merthyr factory outbreak 46,25,16, 26 and 32 cases over the last 5 days. That is 145 meaning 29 per day plus 13 which are 42 per day and over the next few days this will drop further as the last 2 days tend to include figures recorded late from the weekend. The only thing that will keep figures higher is the test not yet done in the factories.
As I have said to you on many occasions 5 miles is a guidance not a rule. I dont know where you live from Caswell but if you live in Swansea you would have an arguable case to say that you are staying unlike say someone coming from Cardiff to Swansea. The 5 mile rule was never put in statute but is guidance over what stay local means. If you say 5 miles people will treat it as 10 and if you make it 10 then people will treat it as 20. The only actual rule is to stay local and everyone will have a different view of what staying local is.
When Drakeford introduced it he stated it was a "rule of thumb" and would differ dependant on circumstances. He went on to say it might be far more in more rural areas. I dont know why people have become stuck on 5 miles when it isnt law anyway. The whole object of stay local is to stop the threat of someone going from a heavily infected area and transmitting it to somewhere where this low infection.
If you actually look more deeply into the figures Cardiff yesterday had numerous cases of cases tested in hospital wards or A&E and that is worrying. The Carmarthenshire figures show the same. This is the worry that the virus could spread from those areas to say Swansea. It is why the stay local advice was correct as at that time some had higher infection rates. Today most areas across Wales have similar low figures and when the local rule is probably relaxed it will be done at the correct time.
As far as other places having pubs open that is the policy of their administration which I think is folly as he situation of removing lock down too early has proved elsewhere. I think taking a week or 2 longer to open safely is the correct policy. As our figures come down further the risk of removing the 2 metre rule also decreases. I suppose it is all a question of judgement but I would prefer us to follow the medical advice rather than bringing in policies on the hoof as has happened in England to placate the right wing tory back benchers like IDS, Baker and Francois. [Post edited 2 Jul 2020 13:21]
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I didn't read all of that before replying, but one further point. Do you think it is a good idea for Drakeford to ask Europes biggest airline not to fly from our state owned airport over a rule of thumb?
Perhaps he could have said family visits and bubbles were excluded as Sturgeon did in Scotland?
People have stuck on five miles because he said it, if he didn't mean it way not just say "stay local" - you now seem to be undermining his authority. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:01 - Jul 2 with 3003 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:54 - Jul 2 by Scotia |
I didn't read all of that before replying, but one further point. Do you think it is a good idea for Drakeford to ask Europes biggest airline not to fly from our state owned airport over a rule of thumb?
Perhaps he could have said family visits and bubbles were excluded as Sturgeon did in Scotland?
People have stuck on five miles because he said it, if he didn't mean it way not just say "stay local" - you now seem to be undermining his authority. |
What he actually said and I watched the programme was that people need to stay local. He went on to say what he considered local was 5 miles as a rule of thumb. He then went onto say that in certain rural areas the nearest supermarket was further than that but his main focus was on staying local and people would have to make their own decisions on that based on their individual circumstances. The nearest supermarket to Tafarn y garreg would be Tesco in Ystradgynlais 8.3 miles away and that would be considered local in that case. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:33 - Jul 2 with 2987 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:07 - Jul 2 by bennytheblue |
Until they let 60 million English in here on July 13 so really keeping us safe. Just political nonsense |
So you prefer Wales to have a higher rate of infection so we don't have to point out that the country to the east of us has a big problem ?
Really ?
I think you meant to say ...... well done Drakers for doing Gods work so well. |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:37 - Jul 2 with 2985 views | exhmrc1 |
The figures for the other health boards show similar drops to Swansea Bay. Here is the Aneurin Bevan Figures from 1 May
28
21
13
31
34
18
12
8
25
33
15
21
2
11
6
13
9
7
13
11
40
10
16
13
7
15
8
5
5
8
12
3
5
7
3
2
0
5
13
2
3
7
3
2
0
3
5
0
3
3
0
3
2
6
2
1
2
2
3
3
2
2
1 | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:38 - Jul 2 with 2984 views | bennytheblue |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:33 - Jul 2 by Kilkennyjack |
So you prefer Wales to have a higher rate of infection so we don't have to point out that the country to the east of us has a big problem ?
Really ?
I think you meant to say ...... well done Drakers for doing Gods work so well. |
Done a good job? You must be mental the lefty t w a t has probably ruined us, which of course he is more than happy to do of course.... |  | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:39 - Jul 2 with 2982 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:33 - Jul 2 by Kilkennyjack |
So you prefer Wales to have a higher rate of infection so we don't have to point out that the country to the east of us has a big problem ?
Really ?
I think you meant to say ...... well done Drakers for doing Gods work so well. |
Te really ironic thing about your nonsense is that Wales wouldn’t have been able to do this if it was independent.
It would have had to open the economy. As it couldn’t rely on England to do so, take all the risk and hope it gets bailed out. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:40 - Jul 2 with 2983 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:19 - Jul 2 by raynor94 |
Thank god the Coracle makers are still open, and all this rain in the last few days.
"We're in the money" |
How do you get a mindset that mocks your own nation and trivialises its culture...?
Seems a bit strange to me.
Its as hopeless as its bizarre....? Pointless.
I guess you would agree that the reason that you left out the coal, slate, copper and steel is that you would have to reflect on the great wealth created and why most of it did not benefit Wales ?
‘Our neighbour robbed us’ | |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:42 - Jul 2 with 2979 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:38 - Jul 2 by bennytheblue |
Done a good job? You must be mental the lefty t w a t has probably ruined us, which of course he is more than happy to do of course.... |
So now the Professor is a ‘twaat’, unlikely.
Whereas jobbing journo posh boy Boris on the other hand ... 🤡 | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:47 - Jul 2 with 2975 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:39 - Jul 2 by londonlisa2001 |
Te really ironic thing about your nonsense is that Wales wouldn’t have been able to do this if it was independent.
It would have had to open the economy. As it couldn’t rely on England to do so, take all the risk and hope it gets bailed out. |
You really have left Wales haven’t you...?
Yes ok then Lisa lets blame wales for the Westminster system that keeps her poor.
Like the husband who says to his wife, if you leave me nobody else will want you ? Not a great reason for staying in a dead relationship.
Or maybe you think the welsh are the only people in Europe incapable of running their own affairs successfully ?
Drakeford is out performing England. Fact. | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:48 - Jul 2 with 2974 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:02 - Jul 2 by felixstowe_jack |
Just wonder if the Leicester outbreak has anything to do with the BLM protest march held in Leicester on 6th June attended by thousands with no social distancing. |
It was the Boris street parties more like ... 🤡 | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:56 - Jul 2 with 2971 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:47 - Jul 2 by Kilkennyjack |
You really have left Wales haven’t you...?
Yes ok then Lisa lets blame wales for the Westminster system that keeps her poor.
Like the husband who says to his wife, if you leave me nobody else will want you ? Not a great reason for staying in a dead relationship.
Or maybe you think the welsh are the only people in Europe incapable of running their own affairs successfully ?
Drakeford is out performing England. Fact. |
Sigh. I didn’t say that though did I. Stop being such a complete child.
As I’ve pointed out on several occasions, Drakeford’s actions are harming the independence debate not helping it.
Tell me. If the poor people at Castell Howell lose their jobs, is that Drakeford s fault in your view? At all? Any of them? Could he have done something to save any of those jobs?
Wales will become a strong independent country when it stops asking England for money because it doesn’t need to.
You still haven’t ever answered the question I’ve asked several times - do you need to go out to work to feed your family? | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:04 - Jul 2 with 2957 views | pencoedjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:56 - Jul 2 by londonlisa2001 |
Sigh. I didn’t say that though did I. Stop being such a complete child.
As I’ve pointed out on several occasions, Drakeford’s actions are harming the independence debate not helping it.
Tell me. If the poor people at Castell Howell lose their jobs, is that Drakeford s fault in your view? At all? Any of them? Could he have done something to save any of those jobs?
Wales will become a strong independent country when it stops asking England for money because it doesn’t need to.
You still haven’t ever answered the question I’ve asked several times - do you need to go out to work to feed your family? |
Id be amazed if he worked & if he does no chance he runs his own business.
He's a complete idiot. |  | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:20 - Jul 2 with 2952 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:56 - Jul 2 by londonlisa2001 |
Sigh. I didn’t say that though did I. Stop being such a complete child.
As I’ve pointed out on several occasions, Drakeford’s actions are harming the independence debate not helping it.
Tell me. If the poor people at Castell Howell lose their jobs, is that Drakeford s fault in your view? At all? Any of them? Could he have done something to save any of those jobs?
Wales will become a strong independent country when it stops asking England for money because it doesn’t need to.
You still haven’t ever answered the question I’ve asked several times - do you need to go out to work to feed your family? |
Wales has never really been an independent country in the sense of a single ruler or government. always been small kingdoms with the occasional overlord. I think this is a major difference to Scotland.
Anyway, most infectious diseases people I know are very wary about the easing of lockdown and certainly won't be rushing to the pub or restaurant this weekend in England. It is difficult to pick apart the balance between public health and the economy. I am of the view we should have had an earlier and sharper lockdown. My mother tells me how strictly it was enforced in Tenerife. The delay led to a longer persistence of higher levels of circulating virus. It looks pretty OK to ease lockdown in Southern England, Wales and much of Scotland, but the numbers up here are still too high in my view. I have some sympathy will Westminster, Holyrood and Cardiff Bay here, as there is no right answer. I just hope all have come to the best answer. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:26 - Jul 2 with 2950 views | Highjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:33 - Jul 2 by Kilkennyjack |
So you prefer Wales to have a higher rate of infection so we don't have to point out that the country to the east of us has a big problem ?
Really ?
I think you meant to say ...... well done Drakers for doing Gods work so well. |
Let's just pretend for a moment that God exists, he would have created this virus and everyone who gets it is going along with God's great plan. Therefore if the very sexy Mark Drakeford is trying to prevent the spread of the virus he is in fact in direct conflict with God.
Mark Drakeford is literally Satan. |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:36 - Jul 2 with 2941 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:20 - Jul 2 by Professor |
Wales has never really been an independent country in the sense of a single ruler or government. always been small kingdoms with the occasional overlord. I think this is a major difference to Scotland.
Anyway, most infectious diseases people I know are very wary about the easing of lockdown and certainly won't be rushing to the pub or restaurant this weekend in England. It is difficult to pick apart the balance between public health and the economy. I am of the view we should have had an earlier and sharper lockdown. My mother tells me how strictly it was enforced in Tenerife. The delay led to a longer persistence of higher levels of circulating virus. It looks pretty OK to ease lockdown in Southern England, Wales and much of Scotland, but the numbers up here are still too high in my view. I have some sympathy will Westminster, Holyrood and Cardiff Bay here, as there is no right answer. I just hope all have come to the best answer. |
Most people I know won’t go to the pubs or restaurants either.
But the same was said about beaches, marches, shops. The detailed reporting from PHE yesterday showed that since shops opened, the cases have still dramatically fallen away in England.
Even the outbreaks in the North have started to fall away (look at the report from PHE on the details of the Leicester outbreak - even Leicester’s numbers started falling off before the local lockdown).
We are going to see flare-ups, it’s inevitable. But overall cases and fatalities continue to fall away and the effect of keeping the economy shut is genuine harm. As I’ve said several times, if it was a zero sum game, fair enough. But it’s not. Of course infectious disease experts are going to be wary - it is a zero sum game for them. But life isn’t that easy. There are risks all the time and they have to be balanced.
The area that most suffered from lack of an earlier lockdown is mine - we all locked ourselves down a week before while the rest of the country was down the pub. People have to weigh up their own risks and act accordingly. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:47 - Jul 2 with 2938 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:20 - Jul 2 by Professor |
Wales has never really been an independent country in the sense of a single ruler or government. always been small kingdoms with the occasional overlord. I think this is a major difference to Scotland.
Anyway, most infectious diseases people I know are very wary about the easing of lockdown and certainly won't be rushing to the pub or restaurant this weekend in England. It is difficult to pick apart the balance between public health and the economy. I am of the view we should have had an earlier and sharper lockdown. My mother tells me how strictly it was enforced in Tenerife. The delay led to a longer persistence of higher levels of circulating virus. It looks pretty OK to ease lockdown in Southern England, Wales and much of Scotland, but the numbers up here are still too high in my view. I have some sympathy will Westminster, Holyrood and Cardiff Bay here, as there is no right answer. I just hope all have come to the best answer. |
You are right. The figures in North Wales have been far higher than the rest of Wales but the good sign is that they have been declining recently other than the outbreaks in Wrexham and Llangefni. The Wirral and Merseyside is quite close to North Wales. This is the reason I support Drakeford's slower lockdown than Johnson's. Drakeford has waited for North Wales and a couple of areas in South Wales to come closer together whilst Johnson removed the stay local restriction whilst the figures in the North and Midlands were still high because he was under pressure. Here is Betsi Cadwalladrs figures from 1 May.
30
42
51
46
51
21
25
91
31
72
44
20
70
48
20
98
69
41
67
48
44
45
72
52
58
67
42
30
56
35
30
17
36
53
12
43
21
14
20
13
23
21
25
20
11
36
37
31
25
14
14
66
43
55
29
67
43
32
11
6
10
7
26
The 26 cases include 15 from Wrexham and some for Flint who could well be travelling there for work. These figures will still be high until the Wrexham factory has been fully tested | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:29 - Jul 2 with 2907 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:47 - Jul 2 by exhmrc1 |
You are right. The figures in North Wales have been far higher than the rest of Wales but the good sign is that they have been declining recently other than the outbreaks in Wrexham and Llangefni. The Wirral and Merseyside is quite close to North Wales. This is the reason I support Drakeford's slower lockdown than Johnson's. Drakeford has waited for North Wales and a couple of areas in South Wales to come closer together whilst Johnson removed the stay local restriction whilst the figures in the North and Midlands were still high because he was under pressure. Here is Betsi Cadwalladrs figures from 1 May.
30
42
51
46
51
21
25
91
31
72
44
20
70
48
20
98
69
41
67
48
44
45
72
52
58
67
42
30
56
35
30
17
36
53
12
43
21
14
20
13
23
21
25
20
11
36
37
31
25
14
14
66
43
55
29
67
43
32
11
6
10
7
26
The 26 cases include 15 from Wrexham and some for Flint who could well be travelling there for work. These figures will still be high until the Wrexham factory has been fully tested |
Oddly though Wirral which has no land border to Flintshire or Wrexham is considerably higher in cases than Cheshire West and Chester ( where I live ) which does. Flint and its surrounds have a large Eastern European population involved in the food industry around Deeside and Wrexham | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:30 - Jul 2 with 2905 views | raynor94 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:56 - Jul 2 by londonlisa2001 |
Sigh. I didn’t say that though did I. Stop being such a complete child.
As I’ve pointed out on several occasions, Drakeford’s actions are harming the independence debate not helping it.
Tell me. If the poor people at Castell Howell lose their jobs, is that Drakeford s fault in your view? At all? Any of them? Could he have done something to save any of those jobs?
Wales will become a strong independent country when it stops asking England for money because it doesn’t need to.
You still haven’t ever answered the question I’ve asked several times - do you need to go out to work to feed your family? |
I'm waiting for the answer to your last paragraph with baited breath |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:37 - Jul 2 with 2901 views | BillyChong |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:39 - Jul 2 by londonlisa2001 |
Te really ironic thing about your nonsense is that Wales wouldn’t have been able to do this if it was independent.
It would have had to open the economy. As it couldn’t rely on England to do so, take all the risk and hope it gets bailed out. |
How wouldn’t have Wales managed this as an independent country? | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:41 - Jul 2 with 2900 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:37 - Jul 2 by BillyChong |
How wouldn’t have Wales managed this as an independent country? |
It could manage the pandemic, but does not have the financial heft to come out the other side with a functional economy. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:42 - Jul 2 with 2899 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:30 - Jul 2 by raynor94 |
I'm waiting for the answer to your last paragraph with baited breath |
Every other time I’ve asked he’s disappeared.
The annoying thing is that I’m a supporter of Welsh autonomy, possibly will be persuaded about independence if Scotland and NI go in particular, but kilkenny’s brand of anti English nationalism is a massive turn off for me.
If Wales is to become a stronger nation, it can’t be run by well meaning old socialists like Drakeford. It has to understand that wealth creators are essential for the strong economy needed to provide the services needed for everyone. I’d hope it has a heart - provides properly for children, those who can’t work, older people, top quality healthcare and education, social care and so on, but to do that it has to innovate and drive forward. That involves taking decisions that are sometimes difficult. Destroying companies in Carmarthenshire because there are virus incidents in Wrexham is insane. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:09 - Jul 2 with 2887 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:29 - Jul 2 by Professor |
Oddly though Wirral which has no land border to Flintshire or Wrexham is considerably higher in cases than Cheshire West and Chester ( where I live ) which does. Flint and its surrounds have a large Eastern European population involved in the food industry around Deeside and Wrexham |
Are the people from Flint and Denbighshire likely to work in Flint or is there likely to be further food plants where there could more outbreaks. Could some of the recent cases in Powys be connected to this plant as it borders Pembrokeshire. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:58 - Jul 2 with 2873 views | pencoedjack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:42 - Jul 2 by londonlisa2001 |
Every other time I’ve asked he’s disappeared.
The annoying thing is that I’m a supporter of Welsh autonomy, possibly will be persuaded about independence if Scotland and NI go in particular, but kilkenny’s brand of anti English nationalism is a massive turn off for me.
If Wales is to become a stronger nation, it can’t be run by well meaning old socialists like Drakeford. It has to understand that wealth creators are essential for the strong economy needed to provide the services needed for everyone. I’d hope it has a heart - provides properly for children, those who can’t work, older people, top quality healthcare and education, social care and so on, but to do that it has to innovate and drive forward. That involves taking decisions that are sometimes difficult. Destroying companies in Carmarthenshire because there are virus incidents in Wrexham is insane. |
Excellent post. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:06 - Jul 2 with 2867 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:09 - Jul 2 by exhmrc1 |
Are the people from Flint and Denbighshire likely to work in Flint or is there likely to be further food plants where there could more outbreaks. Could some of the recent cases in Powys be connected to this plant as it borders Pembrokeshire. |
Yes- there is a very large 2 Sisters poultry plant and about 10-20 smaller producers around the huge industrial parks. A few closed about 3 years ago (big pizza
Factory). That’s where many work | | | |
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