Confidence restored by a midweek draw at title chasing Newcastle, QPR now head back north to Blackburn hoping to further improve away form which has been bolstered by two players in particular.
Mercantile Credit Trophy >>> Saturday February 4, 2017 >>> Kick Off 15.00 >>> Weather — Sunny allegedly, but cold >>> Ewood Park, Blackburn
Following Queens Park Rangers away from home has, for some time now, been like falling in love with a serial cheater, or appointing Martin Allen as your manager. Every time you give them another chance, every time they let you down. Every time they promise it’ll be different, and every time they drag you up Bolton in the middle of winter for a last minute defeat, or you catch them swiping right on Eastleigh. We should know better, but it’s the hope that you cling to, and that eventually kills you.
Just four away wins in the league last season (Huddersfield, Wolves, Reading, Rotherham), and only two the season before (Sunderland, West Brom). Across our three recent Premier League campaigns we won just seven away matches (Everton, Wolves, Stoke, Chelsea, Southampton, Sunderland, West Brom) from 59 played. Mark Hughes didn’t win an away game in his entire reign as QPR manager. Harry Redknapp openly admitted he’d given up on them — "bonus games”.
The draw at Newcastle in the week may have felt like a win, but it spoilt a chance to win three consecutive away matches for the first time since early 2014 when Steve McClaren was here coaching and we beat Bolton, Leeds and Yeovil (all 0-1) in early September. Prior to that Ipswich (0-3), Leicester (0-2) and Palace (1-2) were all beaten on their own patch by Neil Warnock’s 2010/11 promotion side. Before that Crewe (0-2), Brighton (2-3) and Stoke (0-1) in the seven match winning streak under Ian Holloway in 2004/05.
The totals of away win per season in the intervening period are, frankly, embarrassing, particularly when you think of just how much money the serial QPR masochist must have spent attending them all. Five out of 23 in 2005/06, same again in 06/07, just four in 07/08, and despite finishing eleventh there were only three road wins from 23 attempts in 08/09. Six in 09/10 and ten in the promotion season is better, then came the Premier League horrors. Harry Redknapp’s promoted side only won eight.
Quick fiddle about with the calculator… All of this means that over the last decade prior to this season QPR have played away from home in the league 241 times and won just 52 of them. It can be a long, lonely existence trawling the motorways and railways of this country watching this lot — not that you’d know it from the boisterous away following at St James’ Park on Wednesday night where the R’s won 2-2.
That performance, and the ones before it at Reading and Wolves, are giving rise to the demon optimism again. Not only that Rangers might finally be getting somewhere under Ian Holloway, but also that we might — remarkably — be better suited to playing away from home (where we’ve taken 18 points and won five matches this season already) as opposed to Loftus Road where we’ve won just four out of 15 and taken only 16 points.
How it’s being done is a question with many theoretic answers. You can talk about us being better without the ball and good on the counter attack, which naturally suits away matches and there might be something in that. You can also write off last week’s debacle at home to Burton Albion as a blip, and coming in the middle of a good run of results and performances against Wolves, Ipswich, Reading, Fulham and Newcastle it looks on the face of it like you’re right.
But actually I think the recent improvements have been largely down to a couple of individual players, and far from being a blip the Burton game merely proved this further and will happen again if we don’t either recognise how crucial Jamie Mackie and Ryan Manning are to us or find alternate ways of playing when they’re not available. Quite how we’ve come to rely on one player who’s only played half a dozen senior games in his career, and another who’s technically limited but with a heart the size of a blue whale (hat tip Football Ramble) I’m not sure but you only have to look at the first 75 minutes of the Burton game when we had neither of them, and the last half hour at Newcastle when Manning went off and QPR stopped threatening despite chasing the game, to see that they’re structurally integral load bearing walls in this current set up.
Every previous QPR manager has ignored Manning, while I’m sure Chris Ramsey has afforded himself a wry smile at the difference Mackie has made — he saw him as vital to the way he wanted to play as QPR boss, and Mackie was Man of the Match on the opening day at Charlton, but the player couldn’t get fit before Ramsey was sacked. Mackie’s recent injury problems, and Manning’s inexperience at this level, mean they’re risky players to rely on. We’ve seen with Jordan Cousins and Jack Robinson how injuries like the ones Mackie has suffered can plague you long after you’re supposed to have been fit to play again, and Manning clearly tired in the second half on Wednesday — though, as said, QPR weren’t the same team once he was removed.
So alternate ways of playing need to be found, because we can’t flog either of them to death. But we saw what happened when we tried to rest them for what should have been a ‘gimme’ last week, so while that drop zone remains slightly too close to comfort we’ve probably got little choice but to keep picking the pair of them. A rare win at Blackburn on Saturday - one of the teams below us, a team that’s already troubled us this season, a team we rarely play well or win against - would afford that breathing space to experiment.
But given that this odd duo have been setting the tempo and performance levels for the whole team recently, improving players around them into the bargain (Luongo with Manning is a different player, as we saw against Burton. Likewise Washington with Mackie) it’s hard to envisage us getting that maximum at Ewood Park without both of them playing well over big minutes — quite an ask of them having poured everything into that fine effort on Wednesday.
Links >>> Circling the drain — Opposition Profile >>> Kidd’s sacking — History >>> Blackburn’s sad decline — Interview >> Gone for a Burton — Podcast >>> Harrington in charge — Referee
QPR’s recent record at Blackburn reads six visits, five defeats, one draw and one broken leg so classic video is a bit thin on the ground for this fixture. In the absence of YouTube footage of the Gallen/Wardley won from 1999 here’s some tennis highlights set to music for you.
Team News: This game has the potential to turn into something of a showcase for late January arrivals at both clubs with Marvin Emnes returning to the Blackburn line up after rejoining from Swansea and Lucas Joao ready to make a full home debut after moving from Shef Wed. QPR meanwhile have Matt Smith and Ravel Morrison available for the first time with Sean Goss and Luke Freeman making their debuts off the bench at St James’ Park during the week. Jack Robinson and Yeni Ngbakoto are the injury doubts for Rangers, along with Grant Hall with James Perch likely to stand in for him again in front of the back four. Gordon Greer is fit to start for Rovers.
Elsewhere: If you enjoyed Borussia Huddersfield v Champions Brighton last night you’ll be pleased to know they’re both expected to play again this weekend — the former against The Champions of Europe, the latter away at Brentford. How do you like your Championship? In excessive amounts force fed to you down a tube I hope, so we can turn your liver into pâté when you eventually expire during an early Tuesday morning fixture between Burton Albion and Rotherham.
Wigan Warriors, purchaser of a slim dozen new players in January including Grimsby Fish’ leading man Omar Bogle (intrigued as to how he steps up levels), host Sheffield Owls in a televised offering this evening, and then there’s eight games at 15.00 tomorrow including Shteve McClaren’s eagerly awaited return to the Sports Direct Wonga Dome to face Promoted Newcastle. I quite fancy the Derby Sheep for that one, with unrest on the Tyne that Rafa Benitez has "only” been allowed to spend £45m on his team and some reports the Spaniard could walk if Big Evil Mike doesn’t hand over all the money and a company credit card for some more spending forthwith.
In the world of managerial changes that should never have been made, Brum welcome Tarquin and Rupert still hunting for their first win under Gianfranco Chelsea at the eleventh attempt having sacked Gary Rowett after a victory when they were seventh in the division. In the world of managerial changes that probably should have happened a while ago, Mick McCarthy’s hapless Ipswich side need a home win against high-flying Waitrose if this isn’t to turn very ugly indeed.
The Wurzels are also on a cataclysmically bad run and having splashed the cash on Bristol Rovers’ Matt Taylor in a controversial cross city switch the pressure will build to intolerable levels on manager Gary Johnson if they can’t beat Relegated Rotherham with a front two of him and Tammy Abraham — no better pairing at this level currently in my opinion. Nigel Clough’s Burton Albion v the Wolverhampton Wolves is also taking place and the Carrot Crunchers are in town for the latest leg on the Seventh Annual Neil Warnock Farewell Tour.
Barnsley v Preston Knob End will halt in the seventy eighth minute of play for a moment of silence as a mark of respect to the 78 people who were on board the 14.35 Barnsley Interchange to Sheffield service on Thursday which was sadly delayed by 14 minutes at Wombwell due to a points problem in the Meadowhall area.
Referee: Tony Harrington was in charge for QPR’s 2-1 victory against Ipswich at Loftus Road at the start of January, so it’s a second Rangers date in quick succession for the Cleveland official who’s in his first season of regular Championship appointments. Details here.
Blackburn: Rovers are second bottom with just six wins from 28 matches this season leaving them three points adrift of safety. Four of those wins have come at Ewood Park (Rotherham, Forest, Brentford, Newcastle) from 15 games so far and six teams (Leeds, Reading, Brighton, Sheff Wed, Norwich, Fulham) have won on this ground already. They come into this game on a run of three wins from six however, rather unhelpfully given the league position, two of those were in the FA Cup (QPR, Blackpool) so the Newcastle win remains their only maximum point haul in ten league games of which five others were lost.
QPR: As discussed, QPR have taken 18 points away from home this season as opposed to 16 at home. The five away wins so far equals the total for the last two seasons combined and they arrive at Ewood Park with two wins and a draw from their last three road trips. Sadly, this is a ground where Rangers haven’t won in six attempts. Rangers have only beaten Blackburn once in 16 attempts. The R’s are unbeaten in Ryan Manning’s five starts for the club, winning three, but have only won one of the last five in all competitions prior to this match. Conor Washington has scored in back to back games for the first time since January 2016 when he played for Peterborough.
Predictions: It’s the hope that kills you they say…
LFW’s Prediction: Blackburn 0-2 QPR. Scorer — Pawel Wszolek.
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