| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 16:29 - Nov 4 with 26517 views | robith |
Hello Fellow Rs,
Some of you may remember from years gone by I have run a thread where we track our chances of making promotion, and inevitably how many points we need to avoid relegation.
I had to stop making it just before COVID, as I had my laptop stolen which had the valuable excel sheet stuck on it.
Well, what I can tell you is OneDrive is a magical thing. It has been in the cloud all this time!
I have fixed it up and updated it for the season to date, so prepare to join me on the journey!
Historical Precedent
The average points needed to make the playoffs over the last 7 years is 75
The average points needed to avoid relegation over the last 7 years is 46
Handily the median for both is also 75 and 46, meaning there isn't one season warping our numbers
Plays offs there fore = 1.57 points per game
Survival = 0.97 points per game
Our current trajectory is 1.562 PPG, with a forecast points total of 72
If we convert this to an index, where 1 is hitting the target needed
Play Off Index 0.99
Survival Index 1.61
We are in an around the PPG total we need, but our current points trajectory only gets us to the play offs once in the last 7 years.
Now obviously we need a real world comparison too. Usually around the half way point of the season when the table is a bit more fixed, I'll start to compare each week vs the team in 6th and 21st and their trajectory.
Bossing last season, though obviously we had a pretty rough 1st half of the season
This shows our forecast points based on PPG by week and where it would've got us last season. As you can see historically we'd need to get just a little better to get over 75 to be in with a shot
TL;DR - we're in the mix for sure, but at the 5/6th marker rather than guaranteed play offs.
I'll update weekly(ish) [Post edited 8 Nov 2021 10:32]
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| robith's 20/21 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 16:29 - Nov 4 with 10683 views | robith |
In before the "I don't get it" replies - just lean back, and trust in the index | | | |
| robith's 20/21 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 17:28 - Nov 4 with 10571 views | OldPedro |
I enjoyed this when you've done it previously so thanks for bringing it back.
One thing - shouldn't the title be 21/22 rather than 20/21? |  |
| Extra mature cheddar......a simple cheese for a simple man |
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| robith's 20/21 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 17:40 - Nov 4 with 10528 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
You'll get some graph hate for this but not from me! Love it.
All I want to know is, will I have to pay PaulParker £500 or not? |  | | |
| robith's 20/21 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 18:01 - Nov 4 with 10490 views | robith |
| robith's 20/21 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 17:28 - Nov 4 by OldPedro |
I enjoyed this when you've done it previously so thanks for bringing it back.
One thing - shouldn't the title be 21/22 rather than 20/21? |
Great spot. Honestly, I've been going through the league tables of previous years today and I don't know which way is up | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 18:32 - Nov 4 with 10396 views | CiderwithRsie |
Yay!
Delighted to see this back, I loved it when you've done this before. Thanks for putting in the work |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 21:39 - Nov 4 with 10231 views | Hunterhoop |
Rob, do any of your media buddies know you do this? Is this your little dirty secret; you love an excel graph?  |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 21:43 - Nov 4 with 10223 views | Northernr |
So pleased this is back. Same day as the John Lewis advert. Coca Cola truck advert, QPR December collapse, and then the January "are we in danger of actually going down?" thread and then it'll be spring again. You R's. |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 22:30 - Nov 4 with 10155 views | Myke |
Genuinely not trying to be derogative (except maybe to myself) but all I see is squiggly lines. I might write a poem about it though!! | | | |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 23:20 - Nov 4 with 10092 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 22:30 - Nov 4 by Myke |
Genuinely not trying to be derogative (except maybe to myself) but all I see is squiggly lines. I might write a poem about it though!! |
Summary: QPR stonks go up | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 23:22 - Nov 4 with 10091 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 21:39 - Nov 4 by Hunterhoop |
Rob, do any of your media buddies know you do this? Is this your little dirty secret; you love an excel graph? |
Haha all media planning is excel (or at least my disciplines).
Today I taught curve optimisation using Eurovision as an example. I live for this. You should see my Cheltenham ante post pivot table | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 07:16 - Nov 5 with 9947 views | numptydumpty |
You don't display the advantages and disadvantages of spread betting also, why you at it. Is that on similar lines ???
I know all gambling can be problematic but do know this spread betting can create massive wins or more to the point massive losses in short space of time.
You don't happen to work in finance robith ???
You certainly are an "EXCEL DIVA" !!!!
Lacking Pi Charts though - disappointed not to see my piece of the pie represented here - but please no, not of the PUKKA variety... [Post edited 5 Nov 2021 7:17]
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 07:30 - Nov 5 with 9916 views | nix |
Thanks Robith
I really love this feature, as a bit of a statto myself, but without the mathematical smarts. I should imagine at this stage of the season with just over a third of games played, a few games could change our PPG quite a lot if we won three or lost three, for example?
It's wonderful to see us so far above the bottom line though. |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 07:41 - Nov 5 with 9895 views | toboboly |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 23:22 - Nov 4 by robith |
Haha all media planning is excel (or at least my disciplines).
Today I taught curve optimisation using Eurovision as an example. I live for this. You should see my Cheltenham ante post pivot table |
Bloody pivot tables.
Glad this is back, although tue inevitable decline of the ppg will lead me to hard drugs to anaesthetise the pain. |  |
| Sexy Asian dwarves wanted. |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 07:46 - Nov 5 with 9883 views | Mick_S |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 23:22 - Nov 4 by robith |
Haha all media planning is excel (or at least my disciplines).
Today I taught curve optimisation using Eurovision as an example. I live for this. You should see my Cheltenham ante post pivot table |
Could you do me a Keithy Keif curve optimisation as I have thing ( non sexual) for him. Ta. |  |
| Did I ever mention that I was in Minder? |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 08:27 - Nov 5 with 9822 views | loftboy |
Having read it properly this morning I actually understated figures now!! Cheers Robith |  |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 08:36 - Nov 5 with 9806 views | Rs_Holy |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 21:43 - Nov 4 by Northernr |
So pleased this is back. Same day as the John Lewis advert. Coca Cola truck advert, QPR December collapse, and then the January "are we in danger of actually going down?" thread and then it'll be spring again. You R's. |
that made me laugh as I was thinking exactly the same thing! |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:00 - Nov 5 with 9731 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 07:30 - Nov 5 by nix |
Thanks Robith
I really love this feature, as a bit of a statto myself, but without the mathematical smarts. I should imagine at this stage of the season with just over a third of games played, a few games could change our PPG quite a lot if we won three or lost three, for example?
It's wonderful to see us so far above the bottom line though. |
So because there's an upper limit to how many points you can get the upward variation is smaller than the lower
Here's last season (first two games removed as they obscure the pattern, have gamed the axis a bit to make the pattern more pronounced)
Probably a factor of our form but when we were losing it goes into free fall, but once we strong wins together, after a point the curve becomes gentler | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:26 - Nov 5 with 9689 views | PlanetHonneywood |
It's not the analysis that requires me to doth my sombrero in your general direction, but rather the consummate ease with which you explain it. Which of course, is the real skill.
In summary, I should have my digits ready to tap in the necessaries with the local flight operators come May.
Purely out of interest...that Cheltenham moneyball thingy of yours: does she yield? |  |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:21 - Nov 5 with 9631 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:26 - Nov 5 by PlanetHonneywood |
It's not the analysis that requires me to doth my sombrero in your general direction, but rather the consummate ease with which you explain it. Which of course, is the real skill.
In summary, I should have my digits ready to tap in the necessaries with the local flight operators come May.
Purely out of interest...that Cheltenham moneyball thingy of yours: does she yield? |
I might delete this later for work reasons, but I always had fun with Cheltenham, but after one loss making one (nothing major, I'm a low stakes player, it had no material effect on my life other than "I was expecting to win lots of money") I decided I should take it a bit more seriously. So I'm a big trends guy, and related form. I also try to make a bit of a book using antepost prices to get bigger than SP and structure so i get a set return from a selection winning. Been doing that at 2020 and 2021 and netted +1,628 points profit (where 1 point is your standard stake) in those 2 years. Though this year was a bit of a fluke cos of COVID the fields were super small | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:24 - Nov 5 with 9541 views | hantssi |
I pretty much get all this, but what is the axis on the rhs of the last graph? [Post edited 5 Nov 2021 14:24]
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:46 - Nov 5 with 9496 views | kensalriser |
I'm still trying to work out the y axis on the second chart. |  |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:49 - Nov 5 with 9495 views | robith |
RHS axis of the last chart is where you'd have finished last season with the number of forecasted points
Y axis on chart 2 is points total.
I'll label them in the next update | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 15:26 - Nov 5 with 9473 views | hantssi |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:49 - Nov 5 by robith |
RHS axis of the last chart is where you'd have finished last season with the number of forecasted points
Y axis on chart 2 is points total.
I'll label them in the next update |
An right, I get it now thanks, it was the 0 to 25 that confused me!!
Perhaps I’m just not too smart! | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 17:14 - Nov 5 with 9390 views | kensalriser |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:49 - Nov 5 by robith |
RHS axis of the last chart is where you'd have finished last season with the number of forecasted points
Y axis on chart 2 is points total.
I'll label them in the next update |
I'm sure I'm being dense, but if the y axis on the second chart is total points, how can it decrease in places? | |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 21:12 - Nov 5 with 9310 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 17:14 - Nov 5 by kensalriser |
I'm sure I'm being dense, but if the y axis on the second chart is total points, how can it decrease in places? |
Good point, must be the formula pulling through incorrectly. Will double check it on monday | | | |
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