From the very start of this campaign I have been advocating the need to average at least two points per game, thats still the case, but to do this we have to win possibly four on the road.

Of course predicting where a football team will finish and the number of points it will need to achieve its specific aim is not an exact science, in fact in many cases it doesnt actually become that exact science to the very last game of the season when a team finds itself needing a win or draw and even then its not exact to the final whistle has blown, so all we can do in the meantime is speculate and predict.

The trick though to be as accurate as possible is to assume a fairly high target rather than a lower number of points and as each set of games goes by the true figure needed becomes clearer, around this time last year I started to do this regularly and from a supporters point of view it does help in measuring just how near or far your team are from success, managers often use this themselves to keep players motivated and their eyes on the ball so to speak, especially in the deep winter months when the end of the season seems so far away.

With 14 games to go if Saints hit that two point average then they will hit 87 points and that should be enough for a top two spot although a look back at last years League 1 table shows Huddersfield on 87 points, in the Championship QPR won it on 88 with Norwich on 84, a look back over the last few years shows that 87 points would normally be enough for automatic promotion, although not quite in every season.

So if we are to achieve our aim lets see what we need to do.

We have six home games left and eight away, if we maintain our home average for the season (2.56) then we will get 15 points from those remaining games, thats a tough ask it means we need to win five and lose only one, but thats our average so lets run with that, this means that away from home we have to get 13 points from 8 games, to be blunt that means that we have to win at least four of them, draw two and lose two, if we compare our away point average of only 0.80 per game then this would only give us six points and leave us well short of our target.

Most teams that have got automatic promotion in the recent past have won eight on the road, it looks like we will have to be no different, even if we won every home game, we would still need to get ten on the road minimum, but we cant assume we will win every home game, in fact in some ways it would be prudent to assume that we might slip up in two of those six perhaps drawing and losing one, in which case we could be looking for as many as fifteen points on our travels, whatever way we look at things we are now paying the price for our failure to win on the road at some of the lowly teams.

Our eight away fixtures fall into three categories, winnable, unpredictable and hard.

In the winnable category we would have three games, Saturday's trip to Watford, plus the games at Millwall and Peterborough, unpredictable would be Palace & Leeds and that then leaves three toughies, Hull, Blackpool & Middlesbrough.

These games show just how difficult our task is going to be, the first key will be to no slip up in the winnable games, we have to win at Watford on Saturday, any other result will leave us with a mountain to climb, we need to get wins on the road under our belt and fast, follow a win at Vicarage road up with one at Leeds and we are ahead in the game, make it three in a row at Millwall and that would line us up nicely for a visit to Hull for what is going to be a real toughie.

The games are going to be coming thick and fast now and these next three away fixtures are crucial, we have to win two of them at least.

We have no room for error now, we blew a great chance to cruise to promotion, by more luck than anything else we find ourselves still up there, we now have to be clinical, in many respects its very similar to last season, but make no mistake going to Exeter, Dagenham, Orient and Brentford is a lot lot easiier than what we face now.

So there we have what we need to do down in black and white, of course it will change as the season starts to reach its climax, but if we put the points on the table sooner than later then it will start to sap the moarale of our rivals.

Photo: Action Images

st_bangkok added 09:53 - Feb 20 Bloody hell, looking at that list of away games, we will without question have to find back our very best form to get the minimum 4 wins we will need. Leeds will now be very tough under Warnock, Boro also a very tough ask, but i think we can win at Hull as much as any of them to be honest. I can only see really two there that maybe we can not win....although i know there is no such thing as cannot, but you know what i am trying to say. An early, put my foot in it prediction: Watford - Win Millwall - Win Posh - Win Leeds - Draw Palace - Draw Boro - Lose Hull - Win Blackpool - Draw

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SaintMike added 11:02 - Feb 20 Every other team has to get more points than Saints do...let's not forget that. Admittedly with 2 games in hand and just 2 points to make up on us, West Ham's task looks easier....but Saints are in the driving seat as far as everyone else is concerned. www.ohwhenthesaints.net
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tiptop added 11:26 - Feb 20 Well said Nick. We are at the business end and you've painted a clear picture. At least we're coming back into form. We need the winning, siege mentality of last seasons run-in, only as you say against tougher opposition. The chasing pack are more numerous and more talented. Moments of lapse eg the last 20 of the the first half against derby will be punished by a better team, especially away. Lets get focused, and get the results asap, who ever they are against. Win again sat and get the ball rolling!

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Sanguin added 11:51 - Feb 20 I’m looking forward to the point where we start comparing run-ins, it’s a shame we have 8 away games and only 6 home games left. We can and must beat Watford on Saturday but I’d be happy with a draw at Leeds. Hopefully by the time we travel up to Middlesbrough their season will be effectively over and they’ll have nothing to play for. I’m hoping West Ham and Blackpool draw tomorrow evening.

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nobby added 12:16 - Feb 20 And if we don't quite make it? At least we should still be in the play-offs!
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Saintpaul120 added 12:46 - Feb 20 Don't want to be in the lottery of the playoffs - although it'd be nice to have a day out at Wembley again. Painful memories of Deby and that t*at Davies. Agree Nick and believe that the players have the mettle to achieve this. We're a good, close knit squad now.
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iwtwms added 12:51 - Feb 20 Sanguin: We really want West Ham to beat Blackpool although a draw would be ok because I think that would then leave Blackpool too much to when looking through the remaining fixtures, especually if we can grab a point or 3 off them. There are a lot of games where teams in the top 8 are playing each other, therefore points will obviously be dropped. West Ham and Birmingham look the strongest for the top two and could possibly obtain 90 points or more. Given a slip up along the way. I think that 88 points should secure 2nd spot.

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richardmdcooper added 12:54 - Feb 20 How is it "luck" that we're in the top two?! (and have been there all season)
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Whatsforpud added 16:34 - Feb 20 Although it would be great to actually win a league (especially this one), most would settle for second spot, I think. Reading and Birmingham are the form teams on our tails. I am hoping that Birmingham will start to flag soon, with all the Europa games they had to play, and (luckily) now have an FA Cup replay. On the minus side, you could say our position at the top is partly due to us having played 2 more homes than aways. Can't really say where we stand until the fixtures have evened up.

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sidsaint added 16:59 - Feb 20 Agree with what has been said. Also we should put into the calculations the cup distractions for Birmingham and Cardiff which could provide a bit of a build up of games, points in the bag better than games in hand. Teams on a run now will probably have a blip to come before the end of the season whereas hopefully we have had ours. Even so feel that we may have a number of draws rather than wins on the road but could pick up useful points at Hull and Middlesbrough who don't score that many. Watch out for Ipswich who are on a run at the moment and could prove to be difficult week after next.

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northernsaint added 18:11 - Feb 20 I agree totally. Thinking about Leeds away, who would we rather have as manager NA or Warnock? No contest, Nigel every time. How vital that as many fans as possible attend every away game. We can all do our bit then to get Saints back where thee truely belong.
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altonsaint added 19:04 - Feb 20 All the articles make very interesting reading. Have been a Saints supporter for nearly 30 years and regularly trawl through websites containing Saints news. Thus one is by far the best in terms of constructive comments as quite often the comments on the Daily Echo site begin to dissolve into a slanging match. It has been such a great pleasure following Saints this past couple of years as the club has got the stability it has been crying out for, for a long time. Us and West Ham to secure the top 2 spots. COYR!!

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zonehead added 19:51 - Feb 20 here here
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