| Brucie bonus 20:32 - Dec 14 with 10231 views | Damo1962 |
Just seen an article, where we are to benefit as a club by half a million large, because of Chair and Diengs non contribution to their countries World Cup adventure...which is nice. |  | | |  |
| Brucie bonus on 22:47 - Dec 14 with 6506 views | PlanetHonneywood |
Makes me wonder how much the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, PSG, Real etc. get?
Be nice to read the dosh spread about a little more fairly |  |
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| Brucie bonus on 08:06 - Dec 15 with 6278 views | davman |
This plus the compo from PBBC comes to nearly £2m, but still (according to Clive) we are on the verge of another spectacular FFP meltdown unless we sell, sell, sell.
If that is the case, I think that we SHOULD all be little more like stainrods_elbow on the board. No excuses for overspending whatsoever... |  |
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| Brucie bonus on 08:16 - Dec 15 with 6245 views | dmm |
We have paid compensation to Lincoln for nicking Mike Garrity off them but I'm not sure of the amount. £150k maybe? |  | | |
| Brucie bonus on 09:26 - Dec 15 with 6076 views | danehoop |
| Brucie bonus on 08:06 - Dec 15 by davman |
This plus the compo from PBBC comes to nearly £2m, but still (according to Clive) we are on the verge of another spectacular FFP meltdown unless we sell, sell, sell.
If that is the case, I think that we SHOULD all be little more like stainrods_elbow on the board. No excuses for overspending whatsoever... |
Suspect it was likely the decision to back Warbs last Xmas when we were pushing for promotion that has caused the issues now. At the time it looked like a reasonable gamble as we had been doing well and I guess we had also expected to make at least one player sale if we didn’t go up. That looked all reasonable assumptions at the time, but unfortunately didn’t work out. Got the impression at the time that the owners were more keen on the approach than Les or Hoos were, so not necessarily putting that one entirely on them. The injury to Willock I think probably hurt the transfer plan and not a lot of other saleable assets at that time after that with injuries/dips in form across the squad devaluing the rest. |  |
| Never knowingly understood |
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| Brucie bonus on 17:20 - Dec 15 with 5813 views | Damo1962 |
| Brucie bonus on 22:47 - Dec 14 by PlanetHonneywood |
Makes me wonder how much the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, PSG, Real etc. get?
Be nice to read the dosh spread about a little more fairly |
True, and those clubs you mention don't need it. | | | |
| Brucie bonus on 17:24 - Dec 15 with 5805 views | Northernr |
| Brucie bonus on 08:06 - Dec 15 by davman |
This plus the compo from PBBC comes to nearly £2m, but still (according to Clive) we are on the verge of another spectacular FFP meltdown unless we sell, sell, sell.
If that is the case, I think that we SHOULD all be little more like stainrods_elbow on the board. No excuses for overspending whatsoever... |
We've got a year. I think this set of accounts coming up (21/22 season) are going to be quite bad because I think last season was expensive. But on the rolling three year thing it should still be fine because the Eze sale and the Covid allowances are in that cycle.
However, when you add the set of accounts 12 months from now (22/23 season) to them, and start rolling out things like the Eze sale and covid allowances, there's going to be a significant shortfall coverable only with sales or a promotion.
Man City topped out on the world cup bonus btw - some £16m, which they'll chuck on the pile with the rest. |  | | |
| Brucie bonus on 17:30 - Dec 15 with 5779 views | Damo1962 |
| Brucie bonus on 17:24 - Dec 15 by Northernr |
We've got a year. I think this set of accounts coming up (21/22 season) are going to be quite bad because I think last season was expensive. But on the rolling three year thing it should still be fine because the Eze sale and the Covid allowances are in that cycle.
However, when you add the set of accounts 12 months from now (22/23 season) to them, and start rolling out things like the Eze sale and covid allowances, there's going to be a significant shortfall coverable only with sales or a promotion.
Man City topped out on the world cup bonus btw - some £16m, which they'll chuck on the pile with the rest. |
Money, always attracts more money. Top class football is a reflection of the society we live in unfortunately. Yet some would deny nurses and other workers a fair wage 🤔 | | | |
| Brucie bonus on 18:26 - Dec 15 with 5640 views | dmm |
| Brucie bonus on 17:24 - Dec 15 by Northernr |
We've got a year. I think this set of accounts coming up (21/22 season) are going to be quite bad because I think last season was expensive. But on the rolling three year thing it should still be fine because the Eze sale and the Covid allowances are in that cycle.
However, when you add the set of accounts 12 months from now (22/23 season) to them, and start rolling out things like the Eze sale and covid allowances, there's going to be a significant shortfall coverable only with sales or a promotion.
Man City topped out on the world cup bonus btw - some £16m, which they'll chuck on the pile with the rest. |
Can you put a figure on how much is needed for us to avoid overshooting the £39m threshold? | | | |
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| Brucie bonus on 21:50 - Dec 15 with 5371 views | 1JD |
| Brucie bonus on 18:26 - Dec 15 by dmm |
Can you put a figure on how much is needed for us to avoid overshooting the £39m threshold? |
The last two seasons show;
2019-20. Expense 35m, revenue 18.5m. Operating loss = 17m. The loss was offset by 6m in player sales.
2020-21. Expense 35.5m, revenue 14.5m.
Operating loss = 21m. This was the pandemic year and revenue was down. However, the loss was offset by 17m in player sales.
Both years amount to a collective 20m loss. Which means we can lose a further 19m if need be for last seasons accounts (21/22). Which we may run close given the larger wages to Austin, Johansen. (But FFP deductions for training ground investments should see us ok)
And the season after (this year 22/23), we could lose a further significant loss e.g.10-20m, and still be in line. Context: we are averaging a loss of 17m (without any player sales).
That figure of 17m average loss is reduced to 16m since we are no longer paying 1m rental fees for training grounds. Which leaves a 3m deficit to the allowed 13m annual loss. Assuming no player sales, ever. Which is probably not realistic.
Even then, it is not insurmountable by any means. The new proposed TV deal alone could make up the gap. Or the wage bill could be cut back to where it was only 2-3 seasons ago. Or. We end up selling a player if the cap fits. Several options. Certainly not all doom and gloom (so long as the owners are prepared to continue covering the losses). [Post edited 16 Dec 2022 10:00]
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| Brucie bonus on 01:53 - Dec 16 with 5258 views | DavieQPR |
£10k a day per player. |  | | |
| Brucie bonus on 06:54 - Dec 16 with 5124 views | dmm |
| Brucie bonus on 21:50 - Dec 15 by 1JD |
The last two seasons show;
2019-20. Expense 35m, revenue 18.5m. Operating loss = 17m. The loss was offset by 6m in player sales.
2020-21. Expense 35.5m, revenue 14.5m.
Operating loss = 21m. This was the pandemic year and revenue was down. However, the loss was offset by 17m in player sales.
Both years amount to a collective 20m loss. Which means we can lose a further 19m if need be for last seasons accounts (21/22). Which we may run close given the larger wages to Austin, Johansen. (But FFP deductions for training ground investments should see us ok)
And the season after (this year 22/23), we could lose a further significant loss e.g.10-20m, and still be in line. Context: we are averaging a loss of 17m (without any player sales).
That figure of 17m average loss is reduced to 16m since we are no longer paying 1m rental fees for training grounds. Which leaves a 3m deficit to the allowed 13m annual loss. Assuming no player sales, ever. Which is probably not realistic.
Even then, it is not insurmountable by any means. The new proposed TV deal alone could make up the gap. Or the wage bill could be cut back to where it was only 2-3 seasons ago. Or. We end up selling a player if the cap fits. Several options. Certainly not all doom and gloom (so long as the owners are prepared to continue covering the losses). [Post edited 16 Dec 2022 10:00]
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Thanks very much for going to the trouble of posting that, 1JD. Very helpful and your calculations give some hope we might be okay. | | | |
| Brucie bonus on 07:10 - Dec 16 with 5095 views | Sakura |
| Brucie bonus on 17:24 - Dec 15 by Northernr |
We've got a year. I think this set of accounts coming up (21/22 season) are going to be quite bad because I think last season was expensive. But on the rolling three year thing it should still be fine because the Eze sale and the Covid allowances are in that cycle.
However, when you add the set of accounts 12 months from now (22/23 season) to them, and start rolling out things like the Eze sale and covid allowances, there's going to be a significant shortfall coverable only with sales or a promotion.
Man City topped out on the world cup bonus btw - some £16m, which they'll chuck on the pile with the rest. |
I think you are over doing it on the negativity around FFP
"I think this set of accounts coming up (21/22 season) are going to be quite bad"
Maybe it will maybe it won't. Let's see what is and deal with it then.
If you don't know exactly what it is. Then stop beating the club down. It's needlessly depressing and fatalistic. When you hammer this point again and again.
I bet you weren't forecasting the great little bonus of £2m of unexpected compo to get rid of "the fat one" and World Cup cash.
Maybe we got compo for Banfield, Matthews and that useless set piece coach. DMM is wondering if we paid 150k for Garrity. Be crazy of us to not get similar amounts then for each of them...
You talk as if you are certain we never will sell a player again. Worrying about accounts in two years time. So much could happen in that time. So don't be so pessimistic
Your negativity I could see seeping into the comments around Critchleys arrival and what hope have we got of doing anything.
Really think you have over done to the extreme the point on how difficult the job is. To the point I actually see it as a detriment to the club as a whole. Depression is caused by a lack of optimism for the future. It's seeping in to this club when I don't think it should to that extent. We've got an excellent team here this year when things are clicking. I would say our best team for many many years. So let's not write ourselves off totally
Yes, the parachute payments clubs have an advantage. But we've already beaten the likes of Sheffield United and Watford this season so it isn't insurmountable
There's going to be most likely at least two play offs spots this year that we need to compete with the likes of Millwall, Luton, Preston, Coventry and Blackburn for.
That's totally possible. They are facing their own challenges and between them not many players as sellable assets as Dieng, Chair and Willock are.
Just please stop beating the club down and hammering this FFP point as much as you are. Don't assume we won't ever sell a player again. Don't present the image that it's impossible for us to get out this league and we've blown it under Warbs when last year Huddersfield were two dodgy VAR decisions from getting out of a league were most the teams share our struggles
Maybe we can put our own run of form together and go one better than Huddersfield did. If we are writing ourselves off now then what’s the point [Post edited 16 Dec 2022 7:13]
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| Brucie bonus on 07:11 - Dec 16 with 5093 views | Sakura |
| Brucie bonus on 21:50 - Dec 15 by 1JD |
The last two seasons show;
2019-20. Expense 35m, revenue 18.5m. Operating loss = 17m. The loss was offset by 6m in player sales.
2020-21. Expense 35.5m, revenue 14.5m.
Operating loss = 21m. This was the pandemic year and revenue was down. However, the loss was offset by 17m in player sales.
Both years amount to a collective 20m loss. Which means we can lose a further 19m if need be for last seasons accounts (21/22). Which we may run close given the larger wages to Austin, Johansen. (But FFP deductions for training ground investments should see us ok)
And the season after (this year 22/23), we could lose a further significant loss e.g.10-20m, and still be in line. Context: we are averaging a loss of 17m (without any player sales).
That figure of 17m average loss is reduced to 16m since we are no longer paying 1m rental fees for training grounds. Which leaves a 3m deficit to the allowed 13m annual loss. Assuming no player sales, ever. Which is probably not realistic.
Even then, it is not insurmountable by any means. The new proposed TV deal alone could make up the gap. Or the wage bill could be cut back to where it was only 2-3 seasons ago. Or. We end up selling a player if the cap fits. Several options. Certainly not all doom and gloom (so long as the owners are prepared to continue covering the losses). [Post edited 16 Dec 2022 10:00]
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Excellent post. Didn't know the point around the training ground rental going. Quite significant that | | | |
| Brucie bonus on 07:28 - Dec 16 with 5044 views | Northernr |
| Brucie bonus on 07:10 - Dec 16 by Sakura |
I think you are over doing it on the negativity around FFP
"I think this set of accounts coming up (21/22 season) are going to be quite bad"
Maybe it will maybe it won't. Let's see what is and deal with it then.
If you don't know exactly what it is. Then stop beating the club down. It's needlessly depressing and fatalistic. When you hammer this point again and again.
I bet you weren't forecasting the great little bonus of £2m of unexpected compo to get rid of "the fat one" and World Cup cash.
Maybe we got compo for Banfield, Matthews and that useless set piece coach. DMM is wondering if we paid 150k for Garrity. Be crazy of us to not get similar amounts then for each of them...
You talk as if you are certain we never will sell a player again. Worrying about accounts in two years time. So much could happen in that time. So don't be so pessimistic
Your negativity I could see seeping into the comments around Critchleys arrival and what hope have we got of doing anything.
Really think you have over done to the extreme the point on how difficult the job is. To the point I actually see it as a detriment to the club as a whole. Depression is caused by a lack of optimism for the future. It's seeping in to this club when I don't think it should to that extent. We've got an excellent team here this year when things are clicking. I would say our best team for many many years. So let's not write ourselves off totally
Yes, the parachute payments clubs have an advantage. But we've already beaten the likes of Sheffield United and Watford this season so it isn't insurmountable
There's going to be most likely at least two play offs spots this year that we need to compete with the likes of Millwall, Luton, Preston, Coventry and Blackburn for.
That's totally possible. They are facing their own challenges and between them not many players as sellable assets as Dieng, Chair and Willock are.
Just please stop beating the club down and hammering this FFP point as much as you are. Don't assume we won't ever sell a player again. Don't present the image that it's impossible for us to get out this league and we've blown it under Warbs when last year Huddersfield were two dodgy VAR decisions from getting out of a league were most the teams share our struggles
Maybe we can put our own run of form together and go one better than Huddersfield did. If we are writing ourselves off now then what’s the point [Post edited 16 Dec 2022 7:13]
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Thank you for your input as always, much of it as usual putting words in my mouth and accusing me of saying things I haven't. On the FFP thing all I'll say in reply is I don't sit in my back bedroom making this stuff up. | | | |
| Brucie bonus on 07:30 - Dec 16 with 5023 views | Sakura |
| Brucie bonus on 07:28 - Dec 16 by Northernr |
Thank you for your input as always, much of it as usual putting words in my mouth and accusing me of saying things I haven't. On the FFP thing all I'll say in reply is I don't sit in my back bedroom making this stuff up. |
Its the impression you have given me for sure
Don't try and make forecasts years ahead. Too much to happen between now and then
1JD's comment at the end, "it's not all doom and gloom". Maybe try and take on that mindset and find some optimism
There are plenty of reasons for optimism at this club also | | | |
| Brucie bonus on 07:52 - Dec 16 with 4989 views | Hunterhoop |
| Brucie bonus on 21:50 - Dec 15 by 1JD |
The last two seasons show;
2019-20. Expense 35m, revenue 18.5m. Operating loss = 17m. The loss was offset by 6m in player sales.
2020-21. Expense 35.5m, revenue 14.5m.
Operating loss = 21m. This was the pandemic year and revenue was down. However, the loss was offset by 17m in player sales.
Both years amount to a collective 20m loss. Which means we can lose a further 19m if need be for last seasons accounts (21/22). Which we may run close given the larger wages to Austin, Johansen. (But FFP deductions for training ground investments should see us ok)
And the season after (this year 22/23), we could lose a further significant loss e.g.10-20m, and still be in line. Context: we are averaging a loss of 17m (without any player sales).
That figure of 17m average loss is reduced to 16m since we are no longer paying 1m rental fees for training grounds. Which leaves a 3m deficit to the allowed 13m annual loss. Assuming no player sales, ever. Which is probably not realistic.
Even then, it is not insurmountable by any means. The new proposed TV deal alone could make up the gap. Or the wage bill could be cut back to where it was only 2-3 seasons ago. Or. We end up selling a player if the cap fits. Several options. Certainly not all doom and gloom (so long as the owners are prepared to continue covering the losses). [Post edited 16 Dec 2022 10:00]
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Thanks, JD. However, am I being stupid or missing something? The net total from the two years you outline is a net £15m loss, not net £20m. And given the 3 year cumulative cap is £39m, £20m would leave us £19m to lose, if £24m if it’s £15m.
The issue, as Clive points out is that last season, not shown in your numbers is probably a £21m loss, because we had a very similar cost base to 20/21 and similar income. Maybe a fraction more income but probably more salary, as the club caved o Warburton’s demands and gambled on promotion in Jan, which he duly did not deliver. Let’s call if £21m.
The problem that gives us is that you have to add that to the 20/21 net loss of £4m, and whatever we do this season. Basically we can’t lose more than £14m this current season. But without player sales we will be very close to the wire. No doubt our operating costs are lower this season than last, but £7m lower? That is why Clive thinks we’ll need to sell, and understandably.
Even if we somewhere get through this season where we need to be, the big problem is next season. In the rolling total, that 20/21 net loss of just £4m (thanks Ebere!) will drop off. That leaves you with Warburton’s last season loss of £21m, this season’s of, say, £14m…meaning next year you need to achieve a £4mil net loss.
That means the club MUST get promoted this season (the following year now being irrelevant) OR sell someone for Eze money (or several players) either this season or next season.
Willock could be that man if he stays fit, plays well, and wants to leave, but all 3 are doubts and we need to act soon before his value starts decreasing due to contract term. Chair and Dieng are the others.
I know you’ve outlined a few things that improve the picture by a few million, but I’m not sure you’re outlining clearly enough the timing issue here and reality.
Clive is right, we have to get promotion this season or next or we have to sell £20m of players in the next 15 months.
Merry Christmas. |  | | |
| Brucie bonus on 07:54 - Dec 16 with 4985 views | enfieldargh |
As I understand Its $10,000/day so thats around £8,100 ish.
Thought things like training ground rental doesnt count towards FFP?
I understand this as much as I understand the off-side or whats a foul in the box rules. |  |
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| Brucie bonus on 07:54 - Dec 16 with 4982 views | Hunterhoop |
I should add, I don’t think either are impossible, I really don’t.
We have to be positive and get behind the new manager and team to try and positively affect either happening!
But we are up against a clock.
Even more reason to be annoyed by Beale’s action because he’s messed us around, caused us to lose 5/6 games in a critical season and arguably over played Willock causing injury and devaluation. | | | |
| Brucie bonus on 07:57 - Dec 16 with 4981 views | Northernr |
| Brucie bonus on 07:30 - Dec 16 by Sakura |
Its the impression you have given me for sure
Don't try and make forecasts years ahead. Too much to happen between now and then
1JD's comment at the end, "it's not all doom and gloom". Maybe try and take on that mindset and find some optimism
There are plenty of reasons for optimism at this club also |
Citizen journalism*
* - but only when it's saying stuff that I like.
I think it's a bit rich of you to be pointing the finger at other people's forward forecasts and accusing them of making stuff up when you were on here just a week ago saying "I'm getting concerned the club or rather Les has made their decision. Who to appoint. It being Paul Hall" to further Les' agenda around opportunities for black coaches at the expense of the club. Where was all this sudden wave of optimism and backing the club then?
That one aged well - Neil Critchley, who West London Sport and me had told you was the clear and obvious frontrunner from the off, appointed what, three days later?
This post has been edited by an administrator | | | |
| Brucie bonus on 08:06 - Dec 16 with 4942 views | Northernr |
| Brucie bonus on 07:52 - Dec 16 by Hunterhoop |
Thanks, JD. However, am I being stupid or missing something? The net total from the two years you outline is a net £15m loss, not net £20m. And given the 3 year cumulative cap is £39m, £20m would leave us £19m to lose, if £24m if it’s £15m.
The issue, as Clive points out is that last season, not shown in your numbers is probably a £21m loss, because we had a very similar cost base to 20/21 and similar income. Maybe a fraction more income but probably more salary, as the club caved o Warburton’s demands and gambled on promotion in Jan, which he duly did not deliver. Let’s call if £21m.
The problem that gives us is that you have to add that to the 20/21 net loss of £4m, and whatever we do this season. Basically we can’t lose more than £14m this current season. But without player sales we will be very close to the wire. No doubt our operating costs are lower this season than last, but £7m lower? That is why Clive thinks we’ll need to sell, and understandably.
Even if we somewhere get through this season where we need to be, the big problem is next season. In the rolling total, that 20/21 net loss of just £4m (thanks Ebere!) will drop off. That leaves you with Warburton’s last season loss of £21m, this season’s of, say, £14m…meaning next year you need to achieve a £4mil net loss.
That means the club MUST get promoted this season (the following year now being irrelevant) OR sell someone for Eze money (or several players) either this season or next season.
Willock could be that man if he stays fit, plays well, and wants to leave, but all 3 are doubts and we need to act soon before his value starts decreasing due to contract term. Chair and Dieng are the others.
I know you’ve outlined a few things that improve the picture by a few million, but I’m not sure you’re outlining clearly enough the timing issue here and reality.
Clive is right, we have to get promotion this season or next or we have to sell £20m of players in the next 15 months.
Merry Christmas. |
It's this almost exactly, thank you mate.
One thing (a good thing), as Simon Dorset/Roller always points out, you can basically knock off £4m-£4.5m from each loss total each year for things that don't count against FFP - infrastructure, academy costs etc - so the final shortfall figure to be made up is nearer £10m than £20m. But, yeh...
Also, as if we couldn't love Eze any more, look how vital that money was to us in a time of Covid and no crowds. May yet rescue us all over again with a nice chunky move from Palace and his sell on fee - come on Newcastle, you know it makes sense.
This post has been edited by an administrator | | | |
| Brucie bonus on 08:10 - Dec 16 with 4934 views | WokingR |
| Brucie bonus on 07:28 - Dec 16 by Northernr |
Thank you for your input as always, much of it as usual putting words in my mouth and accusing me of saying things I haven't. On the FFP thing all I'll say in reply is I don't sit in my back bedroom making this stuff up. |
So, what do you do in your back bedroom then ?   |  | | |
| Brucie bonus on 08:12 - Dec 16 with 4927 views | Northernr |
| Brucie bonus on 08:10 - Dec 16 by WokingR |
So, what do you do in your back bedroom then ? |
Mate, since Simmo moved out I don't even really see the need to leave the living room, never mind go in the back bedroom. | | | |
| Brucie bonus on 08:24 - Dec 16 with 4897 views | Loftgirl |
| Brucie bonus on 08:06 - Dec 16 by Northernr |
It's this almost exactly, thank you mate.
One thing (a good thing), as Simon Dorset/Roller always points out, you can basically knock off £4m-£4.5m from each loss total each year for things that don't count against FFP - infrastructure, academy costs etc - so the final shortfall figure to be made up is nearer £10m than £20m. But, yeh...
Also, as if we couldn't love Eze any more, look how vital that money was to us in a time of Covid and no crowds. May yet rescue us all over again with a nice chunky move from Palace and his sell on fee - come on Newcastle, you know it makes sense.
This post has been edited by an administrator |
Any/all of the above may/may not be accurate, I don't know. I'm a strictly 'head in the sand' type. I just cling to the fact that last season Florist were bottom at some point. Also, I'm hoping a manager of Neil Critchley's calibre, wouldn't have taken it on if it was a hopeless case. [Post edited 16 Dec 2022 9:54]
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| Brucie bonus on 08:39 - Dec 16 with 4858 views | Northernr |
| Brucie bonus on 08:24 - Dec 16 by Loftgirl |
Any/all of the above may/may not be accurate, I don't know. I'm a strictly 'head in the sand' type. I just cling to the fact that last season Florist were bottom at some point. Also, I'm hoping a manager of Neil Critchley's calibre, wouldn't have taken it on if it was a hopeless case. [Post edited 16 Dec 2022 9:54]
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Definitely not a hopeless case. Very difficult case, but not hopeless at all - as you say look who made the play offs last year and where they came from in the table. And look at some of the tat Bournemouth spent money on at the end of January - might find a Watford or Norwich type nice and desperate in the last week of the transfer window. | | | |
| Brucie bonus on 08:41 - Dec 16 with 4853 views | slmrstid |
Where else other than football would you see losing £38.9m over three years as a good thing, and £39.1m over three years as a bad thing?
Mad isn't it.
We should have set up a PPE side-arm in the pandemic and got in on the Government contracts. That would have covered any black holes. Missed opportunity. Lee/Les out etc... |  | | |
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