QPR’s shock win at Burnley has given them a puncher’s chance of Championship survival few felt possible — and now…

Stoke (14-11-19 WLDLLD 16th) v QPR (12-11-21 LLDLDW 19th)

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“What are we watching tonight?”

BetFair opens a card immediately. It’s live. Married At First Sight (Australia) is an early hot favourite because, well, #TeamOllie. MasterChef is there, because apparently people like to watch Greg Wallace using his decades of experience selling fruit and veg from a market stall to shout loudly at plates of food produced by professional chefs. “Cooking doesn’t get any tougher than this!” he bellows, through a smile of a million bleached teeth, to a crowd of professionals who’ve spent their lives cooking a Sunday lunch service for three sittings in excess of 400 covers, several of whom are insisting to the waiting staff that any hint of gluten in the gravy will explode them into a thousand pieces. We’re making our way through The Last Of Us, which is surprisingly brilliant for something based on a computer game - I don’t know, should we just make Craig Mazin (Chernobyl — yeh, right?) our next director of football? But, gotta be honest, watching every character I start to remotely care about get resoundingly and bloodily bumped off at the end of each episode is a little bit true to life for me and so it’s proving… chewy. Got to be in the mood for that. Succession? Didn’t like this to begin with - over-hyped, too clever for its own good, watched it so I could at least pretend to participate in small talk if I happened to get stuck in the lift at work with a warm body - but I’ve come to embrace it. I wondered how you could choose to spend time in a world where everybody’s a cunt, and you’re rooting for none of them, and then I looked up from my paper on the Northern Line one morning and realised that at least I can watch Succession from the sofa at home.

Welcome to the world of house share. A world I thought I’d left well and truly behind — cheers Lizz Truss, don’t come my way looking for piss next time you’re ablaze, stupid cow. Battle lines are drawn. The big TV is up for grabs. The remote is eyed from several angles. Who’s to make the first move here? The key to Springfield has always been Elm Street: the Greeks knew it; the Carthaginians knew it; and now you know it. I’ve taken to picking my battles after failing with an early aggressive attempt to inflict Everton v Spurs (The Dele Alli derby, balloons for all on arrival) on the household after my own Monday Night Football was cancelled by plague, or whatever it was we were afraid of that week. It’s de-escalated a bit since Alan Sugar - and those two soppy cum rags that follow him around pretending to take notes - fucked off from their Wednesday night quest to pick the least objectionable 20-something, from a pile of twats I haven’t seen the likes of which since that time I stuck a score in the jar at Browns, based on their ability to sell a Vegan brownie made with beef dripping to harassed commuters at Canary Wharf’s shiny new Crossrail station. But, still, I knew Rotherham v Cardiff was going to be quite the pitch.

I have the flow chart, the finger puppets, the PowerPoint presentation, the speech practised and rehearsed. See how either team can play themselves completely out of this quagmire with a win, see what happens to either if they lose, see what happens to us if they draw… It doesn’t really land. It’s a tough crowd. Fingers are pointed at Reading — “isn’t it all about them? When are they playing? You can watch that down here.” Hmmm, yes, but… See how they’re actually all playing each other, and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility Cardiff lose here and then again to Huddersfield on Sunday and become our absolute prime target for salvation? Watch what happens if Wigan win their last two games, while others above them do not. Blackpool are not out of this either, imagine a scenario where… It’s, err… it’s not going well. “Haven’t you been talking up how good the days out look in League One?” Fair. And that’s why I’m now up here, in the spare room, with a glass of red wine, watching Rotherham Cardiff on the small TV, and writing this, for you, the two regular readers, who I suspect are watching this slop as well. You, like me, came home from work, to watch Rotherham v Cardiff. We did this to ourselves. And now here it is, and here we are. The first game, with Cardiff 1-0 up, was rained off. It’s raining again now, and honest-to-God another postponement is the best thing that could ever possibly happen to this “football match”. It’s like watching Audley Harrison try to box. I’ve seen plays more interesting than this Marge, honest to God…

This — THIS — is the reward. A week ago we wouldn’t have even been interested in this. We were gone, this was all irrelevant. This is some sort of promised land from the insidious position QPR have worked themselves into entirely without prompting. Top of the league we were, and now I'm here watching Rotherham and Cardiff with a pocket calculator.

Last week’s 2-1 win at Burnley was many things. It was utterly miraculous, from a football point of view and, well, a miracle point of view. Saints have been anointed for less. I would have waged every single penny I’ve got to my name against it happening. There was no chance, literally no chance at all. Rob Dickie, hitherto gormlessly wandering the streets of Shepherd’s Bush at night shouting at the parked cars, turns into the club’s greatest goalkeeper since Phil Parkes. It was nonsense. Very QPR, but only very QPR in the sense that going to Man Utd on New Year’s Day with Bristol Rovers-alum Dennis Bailey up front and winning 4-1 was very QPR. We throw around “very QPR” a lot, this was very, very, very QPR. There were tears shed in that away end. You can pick us out on all the highlights because a) we’re near-ish the front, b) there’s no fucker there and c) Mystic Sam is wearing a giant orange coat, which you can see disappear under a pile of bodies after the second goal like somebody had pulled a rug from under him to reveal nothing but a 20-storey drop. If somebody had actually done that to me I’d have taken the leap: I’ve seen what I need to see, felt what I need to feel, and none of it has ever matched the rush provided by a moment like that, and so what’s the point carrying on waiting for it to happen again? But all it is, all any of it is in the context of this dire season, is a scarcely deserved escape route.

With two wins in 28 games — and, I know I keep coming back to it, but, my God, that 6-1 at Blackpool — it is little short of remarkable that QPR have a fighting chance at all. That’s because this league is such utter, utter sludge this year. You have to be really bad to get relegated from this. With two games to go nobody has yet been confirmed as down despite: Wigan at one point winning three games out of 29; Blackpool two from 24 (one of those against us, sorry, sorry); Reading two of 20, Cardiff none of 12; Huddersfield one of 13; QPR two of 26. In that environment one win can be transformational. Cardiff win one game at Rotherham and go from bang in it, to out of it entirely. QPR go from face down in the motel swimming pool, to coughing up the chlorine with a victory at Burnley.

But it’s not job done, and we’ve gone all self-congratulatory like this a few times this season only to fall in a hole again the week after. Trust in this group to follow it up successfully does not exist, and that’s why I’m here now watching Rotherham Cardiff, like I’ll be sitting here on Friday watching Blackpool Millwall, and then standing among you all on Saturday at Stoke, deeply suspicious, and praying for this to just all be over. There are horrors that lie beyond, by the way, whether we stay up or go down. But we’ll address those as and when this team gets us to them, and that’s certainly not this week however good last Saturday was.

“No, no, taste that, taste that, and then we’ll talk,” says Gordon, on a particularly testy episode of Kitchen Nightmares. Maybe we should have just watched that instead.

Links >>> Bircham for mayor — History >>> Doughty in charge — Referee >>> Stoke City official website >>> Stoke Sentinel — Local press >>> The Oatcake — Message Board >>> The Wizards of Drivel — Podcast >>> Every Step Along The Way — Podcast

Below the fold

Team News: “Even Tyler Roberts is back on the grass” according to our Gareth, as the feelgood factor from the Burnley result apparently knows no bounds. Win at Stoke and they’ll be putting the season ticket prices up. Jake Clarke-Salter was left out to manage his fitness after doing an hour v Norwich so should be available again here, though Rob Dickie’s spectacular return to form at Turf Moor gives the manager something approaching a headache there. Likewise Ethan Laird, who was excellent after replacing Aaron Drewe as a sub following his unceremonious dropping from the team for the Norwich game. Osman Kakay (knee) along with Leon Balogun (I don’t know, ask him, he’ll probably invite you for lunch) are done for the season, and apparently if we can “do it for anybody” tomorrow we’re “doing it for them”. Taylor Richards remains a work of fiction.

Stoke’s best player at Loftus Road — best player all season — was/is Ben Wilmot, but he’s fractured his spine. No, that’s not one of our oh-so-humours match preview bits of team news bantz, he actually has, and so it’s 40-year-old Phil Jagielka at centre back with a makeshift full back filling in alongside him tomorrow unless Man Utd loanee Axel Tuanzebe fancies only a sixth appearance for the club since joining on loan in January (seen this film before). Better news still, excellent midfielder Lewis Baker is hamstrung. That’s their two best players out, and means they’re torn between a back three, 4-3-3 or wing backs, all of which mean square pegs in round holes. Jack Bonham is covering in goal for Wolves’ Matija Sarkic, one of seven loanees in a squad where the divisional limit for a matchday squad is five, who has a bad shoulder. Bit warm and sunny out at this time of year for Sam Clucas.

Elsewhere: The Championship is so rank this season, and wins have been achieved so seldom by the teams at the bottom of it, that one victory can be transformative to a team’s chances at the wrong end of the table at this stage. Take, for example, Cardiff, who with games at home to Huddersfield and away to Burnley to come, would have been just three points north of the drop zone and potentially fourth from bottom if beaten at home by the Terriers this Sunday had they not won last night at fellow strugglers Rotherham. As they did, they’re now almost completely safe, six points and seven goals better off than third bottom Reading with two games left to play.

Rotherham, meanwhile, who would also have gone safe with a win, now have to let everybody else play this weekend before a Bank Holiday Monday game at home to Boro, by which time they could be fourth bottom and level on points with the Royals should Huddersfield now win at job-done Cardiff. QPR, as we’ve said, are now one win, or one Reading defeat, from safety, having looked dead for all money heading to Burnley a week ago.

Blackpool, 41 points and -24 goal difference, get to go first this weekend with a home match tonight against Millwall’s fast collapsing play-off bid. If they win, they go above Reading into the final relegation spot ahead of a final day trip to Norwich. They can catch us with two wins and two QPR defeats but if they lose they’re down, with Reading and Huddersfield playing each other on the last day.

It really is all eyes on Reading. They finish with Wigan at home this weekend, and Huddersfield away next. Wigan, who have won their last two matches, sit bottom on 41 points and can now only survive by winning both games at Reading this weekend, and Rotherham next. Could this finally be the year we flush the worst away game on the calendar? I want Wigan to win so much tomorrow I’d be tempted to go to that game instead, if it was taking place anywhere else but fucking Reading.

It’s nuts down there. Complicated considerably by everybody playing everybody else. If you’re struggling to keep up with the permutations, the message board thinks it’s just about nailed ithere.

It’s similarly chocker trying to get into the final two play-off places with Boro and Lutown. Coventry (66 points) are in possession of fifth, with a sold-out home game against Birmingham to come this weekend and a final day at Boro. Mark Robins is a God to me at this point, what an unbelievable job he’s done there — manager of the year in this division by a street if he pulls that off. Sunderland (65 points) have also sold their game out at home to hapless (and really quite embarrassing now, as Chris Wilder readily attests) Watford as they look to seal sixth.

Counting back from there six teams are within three points, but only the most distant (Swanselona with four wins on the spin and 62 points) are in any kind of form ahead of their trip to Hull. Norwich (62 points) have drawn two and lost two of four while West Brom (63 points) have lost their last two games — those two meet in a do-or-fuck-off game at The Hawthorns on Saturday night. Preston (63 points) have a draw and two defeats from three to take to Sheffield Red Stripe, who were promoted during the week. Blackburn (65 points) haven’t won in seven and now host Luton on Monday night while Millwall (65 points) have won one of seven prior to tonight’s trip to Bloomfield Road.

Other games, what other games? Burnley at home to Bristol City is the only one with nothing on it.

Referee: Blackpool’s Leigh Doughty is one of the young referees on the fast track to desperately cover up the chronic lack of talent at the top end of officiating in this country and although QPR are yet to win with him (D1 L2) he’s been excellent in all three appointments we’ve had with him. Details.

Form

Stoke: The Potters often look stronger on paper than in reality, but March was a hot month for them and with a 5-1 win at play-off chasing Sunderland to go with a 4-0 at fellow promotion hopefuls Coventry and a home win against Blackburn and draws with Norwich and Boro it looked like Alex Neil might have finally cracked the code. Since then, however, no wins in five games and home defeats to Bristol City, West Brom (both 2-1) and lowly Wigan (1-0). They took the lead in three of those five matches only to end up with one point from nine. Now sixteenth, and with only thirteenth attainable, it continues their record of never finishing in the top half of the Championship since returning to this level in 2018 — this despite significant outlay on players and heavy financial losses. The problem this year has been obvious — at 6-5-11 Stoke have the division’s second worst home record, identical to ours with its club record 11 losses at Loftus Road, and better only than bottom of the table Wigan. They come into this game on a run of three consecutive home defeats, including a 1-0 to relegation haunted Wigan last time out, and have won just one of their last seven games at this ground which was, at one time, considered something of a stereotypical ‘fortress’. Nine of those 11 defeats have been by a single goal — seven teams have won here 1-0 this season in league and cup. By contrast — and I suppose it’s just as well otherwise they’d be in the same shit we’re in — their away record is pretty formidable. Eight wins on the road bettered by only seven teams, including five of the top six, and one more than Coventry have despite lying fifth. Tyrese Campbell, who always looks fantastic against us, is the top scorer here with nine but hasn’t scored in five. Expensive, headline-grabbing, big-name summer acquisition Dwight Gayle hit the bar and had a goal disallowed at Loftus Road in the corresponding fixture which finished 0-0 — he has scored just three times in 35 appearances this season, two of them in one game at Sunderland, and is also now without a goal in five. #signafuckingstriker

QPR: Unbeaten in two. You may laugh, but it’s QPR’s longest run without a defeat in 15 games and three months dating back to a pair of draws in the league against Swansea and Reading back in January. At that point QPR were thirteenth in the table, 12 points away from fourth bottom Huddersfield. They’ve lost 11 and won only two of 16 games since then, taking nine of a possible 48 points available. The ridiculous win at champions Burnley last week was QPR’s first in eight, second in 22 and third in 29. It snapped a run of ten away games without a win (D4 L6) and means that in those most dire of seasons, which has included just six wins on the road, that our beleaguered team has won away from home against the two teams automatically promoted to the Premier League. The result at Turf Moor was achieved with just 19% of the possession, the lowest Rangers have recorded under Gareth Ainsworth so far. The second lowest was the 32% we had for the midweek draw with Norwich and the third is the 40% we used to beat Watford 1-0. By contrast, the three games we’ve had most of the ball in since he arrived here were Blackpool A (62%, L6-1), Birmingham H (60%, L1-0) and Blackburn H (54% L3-1). QPR have scored 11 goals in 14 games since Chris Martin debuted on February 11, and he has four of those himself from 11 starts and three sub appearances. Rangers lost 1-0 here in the penultimate away game of last season, but Stoke has been a good place for the R’s to visit since the switch from the Victoria Ground — they won two of the three games here under Mark Warburton and have six victories and a draw from 13 visits to this stadium (some of them we even made it out alive from).

Prediction: We’re once again indebted to The Art of Football for agreeing to sponsor our Prediction League and provide prizes. You can get involved by lodging your prediction here or sample the merch from our sponsor’s QPR collection here. It’s taken him a while, but our reigning champion Cheesy has finally flipped …

“Let’s face it, last week’s win at Burnley had sod all to do with Rob Dickie, it was all down to my positive thinking in predicting the win. Now realising that I have some sort of superpower, I'm not going to waste it on Stoke-QPR. Instead all my positive thinking will be concentrated on getting Kylie Minogue into my bed for a few hours.”

Cheesy’s Prediction: Stoke 1-1 QPR. Scorer — Lyndon Dykes

LFW’s Prediction: Stoke 1-0 QPR. No scorer.

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distortR added 08:09 - Apr 29 Wonderful writing again, thanks!
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w7r added 10:55 - Apr 29 Another brilliant piece Clive - you never fail to give me a laugh, and for that I doff the old titfer. You mention Mark Robins. What a stellar job he’s done. Coventry we’re seemingly adrift earlier in the season, ground problems and fixture congestion it looked like they were in real trouble. I know they put the nail in the coffin for us all those years ago but I would love to see them get promoted just as a reward for Robins amazing work, he seems like a top guy and a has consistently performed under very difficult circumstances. Here’s to a positive outcome today.

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SimonJames added 14:25 - Apr 29 "Instead all my positive thinking will be concentrated on getting Kylie Minogue into my bed for a few hours.” Lol!
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TacticalR added 14:44 - Apr 29 Thanks for your preview. Thankfully I managed to avoid Rotherham v Cardiff. The permutations of the mini-league at the bottom of the Championship seem endless, particularly as nobody in the mini-league is dead and buried. Agree it's hard to trust this team after some of the terrible results and performances this season.
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