Leicester visit begins QPR’s crunch month — preview

QPR, improving performances but still bottom, face a month of fixtures against teams near them in the league which could define their season. Leicester City are up first at Loftus Road.

Queens Park Rangers (20th) v Leicester City (18th)

Premier League >>> Saturday November 29, 2014 >>> Kick Off 15.00!! >>> Loftus Road, London , W12

The last time QPR succeeded in staying in the Premier League, by a gnat's cock hair it should be said, they did so having apparently blown their chance of survival three months before the end of the season.

The 2011/12 campaign, in much the same was as the 2014/15 season, divided neatly into blocks of games against teams around Rangers at the bottom of the league, and then those trips to Manchester United and Arsenal and the like which Harry Redknapp these days likes to call "bonus games".

The final block of 'winnable' games came through January, February and March and, typically, QPR made a right mess of it. Mark Hughes' side lost to Wolves, Blackburn, Fulham and Bolton . Djibril Cisse, silly sausage, kept getting himself sent off.

It left a fairly impossible looking task facing the Super Hoops. But a late comeback and 3-2 win at home to Liverpool set off a chain of unlikely consecutive home wins against Arsenal, Spurs, Swansea and Stoke. In the end, when Bolton failed to win either of their final two games of the season, Rangers were safe.

Football isn't played on paper. QPR have played far better this season against Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City than they did against Newcastle , West Ham and Stoke. Perhaps it suits the players to have less pressure on them, and be able to go and perform freely in a game nobody expects them to get anything from anyway. Perhaps they enjoy it more when teams come to attack, leaving potential space in behind, rather than keeping it tight and trying, first and foremost, not to lose.

That all said, it' very hard to see how QPR will escape the bottom three this season if they don't make some serious hay during the December rains. If you could pick four home matches for a month you'd almost certainly take Leicester, Burnley, Palace and West Brom .

Harry Redknapp spoke about a "lack of quality" in his team during a meek defeat at Newcastle last week, and he's since lost Sandro — a player he's placed considerable faith and finance in this season for little return — until the turn of the year. These sound like classic opening pitches for Redknapp's grand December plans which almost certainly have Peter Crouch and Jermain Defoe front and centre, followed no doubt by that old story about the time he bought John Hartson and Paul Kitson at West Ham and kept them up. Expect a random 17 year old from the youth team to turn up on the bench soon, or better still that old classic with the two substitute goalkeepers, followed by chat about "bare bones" and "all I've got" and "what can I do" with lots of shrugging and cheek blowing.


Fact is, for all their recent improvements QPR have still only won twice this season and that total needs to be doubled and more by the turn of the year. Five wins in December, not beyond the realms of possibility, could transform the season. Two or fewer and it's probably race you all to Rotherham — any January additions merely added financial headaches to be loaned out, released, paid off, stomached or taken into the woods in the dead of night and shot come the summer.

With Redknapp's risible quote about trips to Man Utd and Tottenham being "bonus games" still rankling with those who have paid to go to the eight defeats QPR have recorded in eight away matches this season, and those who recognise that QPR won't be staying up with 19 defeats on the road, it could probably have done without people's champion Joey Barton reiterating that "anything you get away from home in the Premier League is a bonus" this week. Those three Swansea tickets, at £75, sit forlornly on my kitchen table ready for Tuesday's surrender. The poor form on the road so far, and dreadful attitude and approach to away games which makes Rangers look a beaten side almost before they've even come out of the tunnel, adds more pressure still to this run of "kinder" home games.

Leicester arrive at Loftus Road in lousy form: no wins in six and no goals scored in five of those. But they're the sort of steady, settled, organised side with a plan that QPR usually struggle with and they beat Rangers twice last season, far more comfortably than the two 1-0 scorelines suggest. They'll be difficult to break down. My kingdom for an early goal to open the game up and settle the place down.

Then it's Burnley , with striker Danny Ings fit again and consecutive wins under their belt. And Palace, bringing Neil Warnock back to Loftus Road for the first time since his harsh sacking and no doubt keen to make a point or three. And West Brom haven't been nearly as bad as their summer suggested they would be.

No easy games in the Premier League, very 'ard, blah blah blah, put it away Scudamore nobody wants to see it. QPR have to start winning and they have to start winning this week.

Crunch time.

Links >>> Leicester's grand plan wilting in hostile Premier League climate — opposition focus >>> Goal drought costing Foxes — interview >>> Connolly sending off sparks Furlong-inspired comeback — history >>> East returns to W12 — referee >>> 'Arry's fentastic presser >>> West London double can line your pockets — betting

Lee Cook flies through the air to score the first goal against Leicester in this fixture in 2004/05. Two nil down, newly promoted Rangers were given a way back into the fixture when David Connolly, fresh from a blinding 30 yarder, was sent off for elbowing Georges Santos. Cook’s goal was followed by two for Paul Furlong as Ian Holloway’s men snatched a 3-2 victory at the death as part of a seven match winning run.

Saturday

Team News: Sandro’s knee injury, sustained in a clash with his own team mate Yun Suk-Young at Newcastle last weekend will keep him out until after Christmas, almost certainly meaning a move back to the centre of midfield for Joey Barton. Eduardo Vargas is free to return to the right wing role Barton played to no great effect at St James’ Park having missed that game to attend the birth of his daughter. In defence Richard Dunne has a one game ban for five yellow cards which is highly likely to see a return to the starting 11 for Rio Ferdinand and after his three match ban. The other option would be to move Nedum Onuoha inside into his preferred starting role after an uncomfortable day at right back last time out. Either way, Mauricio Isla will almost certainly start on the right side of the defence.

Leicester are fully fit apart from midfielder Dean Hammond who has a calf injury, and centre half Matthew Upson who — nice new lucrative Premier League contract safely in the bank — has yet to make a single appearance for the Foxes this season after a summer move from Brighton. Quelle surprise.

Elsewhere: If you can all stop wanking yourselves into a spaff frenzy because Dixons have knocked £50 off a poor quality television for one minute, there’s some football taking place this weekend.

Hard to spot a "game that matters” in the Best League In the World this weekend with all the teams people care about paired off against the irrelevant cannon fodder. Louis Van Gaal hosts Tigers Tigers Rah Rah Rah in a rare Saturday 15.00 kick off at the Cathedral of Commercialism. Big Racist John and the Boys are up at Sunderland. The Men of Liverpool host Meticulous Mark and the Taffia. Arsenal are at West Brom.

The game of the weekend, on paper at least, is second placed Southampton at home to Manchester City, although as we’re repeatedly told that the Saints (26 points from 12 games) are a flash in the pan and will inevitably fade away just as soon as the big clubs can be bothered to try and catch them it should probably be a bit of a walk in the park for Manuel Pellegrini’s far more important side. Tottenham v Everton after that on Sunday also looks intriguing, simply because it’s funny watching Tottenham lose every week.

What else is happening here? Aston Villa go to Burnley to settle once and for all who gets to wear a claret and blue kit for the rest of the season. Sam Allardyce and Alan Pardew, pre-season favourites for the sack, are having a smug-off at Upton Park — bring a vomit bag. Swansea Crystal Palace also.

Referee: Roger East, the Wiltshire official who last took charge of QPR in a 3-3 draw with Burnley in the Championship at the beginning of the year, is back at Loftus Road for this one. Read his full QPR case file and recent stats by clicking here.

Form

QPR: Rangers’ midtable home form and League Two away form is well documented — at Loftus Road Redknapp’s side have won two, drawn two and lost two, on the road they’ve lost eight from eight and only scored two goals. Rangers have conceded the first goal in nine of their 12 matches so far and won a single point from a losing position — at home to Stoke. These sides have only met twice before in Premier League games — QPR won 2-0 here with goals from Clive Wilson and Alan McDonald, and drew 1-1 at Filbert Street with an own goal from Phil Gee back in 1994/95.

Leicester : The Foxes’ season divides differently — between the first half of the campaign so far and the second — but the difference is no less stark than it is with QPR. They started with two wins, two draws and a defeat from their first five league games including the memorable 5-3 turnaround against Louis Van Gaal. Since then Nigel Pearson’s side have lost five and drawn two of seven, only scoring in one of those fixtures against Burnley at home. They’ve now gone 500 minutes without scoring. Leicester have won three of their last six trips to Loftus Road having not previously won here in 21 attempts. The Foxes won both fixtures against Rangers last season 1-0 with QPR having a man sent off in both games — Joey Barton in the home fixture and Benoit Assou Ekotto in the away fixture.

Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding — with a baby on the way, congratulations to Owain - tells us…

"QPR host an early season relegation battle when Leicester come to Loftus Road. QPR may sit bottom of the main table but Leicester are comfortably at the bottom of the form table having only taken one point out of the last fifteen available to them, and failing to score in any of those five games. They have gone over 500 minutes without a Premiership goal - this really is a game that QPR need to be winning to have aspirations of staying up this season.

"Considering QPR's recent performances, most notably at home, it is surprising to me to see 11/8 QPR available. I can only assume this is in reaction to QPR's loss at Newcastle where Isla and more importantly, Vargas were both missing. The Chilean pairing should return here and it gives a completely different complexion to the Rangers team. The current betting odds - taking out home advantage, suggest that Leicester are a better side at present and this just isn't true. All my eggs in one basket but 11/8 looks a great price for another QPR win at home. The suspended Richard Dunne will be a loss but with the Leicester attack looking toothless at the moment, it should be more about what goes on the other end of the pitch.

Recommended bet: QPR v Leicester - QPR to win @11/8 (Bet365/Stan James)

Charlie Austin First Goalscorer @5/1 (BetVictor / PaddyPower)

Elsewhere my bet of the weekend comes from across West London where in-form Brentford host a terribly out of form Wolves. Wolves are conceding goals for fun and Brentford are proving very tough opponents, especially at home. Four wins and a draw in their last five home games makes the 11/8 available a definite play against a Wolves side who have conceded eight goals in their last two games and who are still without the services of influential playmaker Nouha Dicko.

Bet of Weekend: Brentford to beat Wolves @ 11/8 - BetVictor

Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion WestonSuperR tells us…

"The Newcastle match was a real let down after some promising recent performances. It was obvious from the line up that we were playing for a draw and as so often this season we failed to get anything at all. If we can back to the form we showed against Man City then there is every reason to believe we can beat Leicester however looking back to recent performances against the so called lesser teams at home doesn't fill me with confidence. Stoke were unlucky not to beat us and the result v Villa brushes over what I thought was a very average performance.

"Although we will all think a win on Saturday is essential (many claiming as always it's a 'must win') Leicester will also see this as a match that they can get something from and sadly I think they will. I can see us scoring early trying to hang on and then conceding towards the end of the match — 1-1 for me.”

John’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Leicester. Goalscorer Charlie Austin

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 2-0 Leicester. Goalscorer Eduardo Vargas

The Twitter @loftforwords

Pictures — Action Images

What to read next: