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An Australian professor of Data Analytics from Griffith University who predicted Trump’s first win, the Australian Federal Election(when all the polls said the opposite) and Brexit has called it - Trump will be re-elected for another 4 years. You heard it here first.
Biden isn't my ideal candidate but there's simply no comparison.
I agree but how is Biden the alternative? How could a country as successful, wealthy and influential as the US only end up with a choice between these two? The mind boggles.
Mind you we've got Johnson, Gove and Priti, so I'm not crowing...
I agree but how is Biden the alternative? How could a country as successful, wealthy and influential as the US only end up with a choice between these two? The mind boggles.
Mind you we've got Johnson, Gove and Priti, so I'm not crowing...
In the USA, by the time the corporate backers allow someone to become leader, I imagine they're so compromised as to be pointless anyway.
I agree but how is Biden the alternative? How could a country as successful, wealthy and influential as the US only end up with a choice between these two? The mind boggles.
Mind you we've got Johnson, Gove and Priti, so I'm not crowing...
Well exactly, and Ireland regularly chooses between two identical right-wing parties, so no choice here either.
Trump is a different animal, though.
[Post edited 27 Oct 2020 10:34]
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
Trump’s trailing by 10% in the polls with a week to go. Pollsters have erred on the side of caution following 2016. Turnout is likely to be a record for a modern day election in the US with 60m having already voted. Covid is surging again with daily cases of 70k/80k. None of this bodes well for Trump.
Something big has to change for Trump to win and he’s running out of time. I’m not saying it won’t happen but 538 ( https://fivethirtyeight.com/), who take the average of all polls, have given Trump a 12/13% chance of winning (they have him a 30% chance in 2016).
Trump tweeted yesterday that votes should stop being counted on Election Day which tells you how confident he is.
Trump’s trailing by 10% in the polls with a week to go. Pollsters have erred on the side of caution following 2016. Turnout is likely to be a record for a modern day election in the US with 60m having already voted. Covid is surging again with daily cases of 70k/80k. None of this bodes well for Trump.
Something big has to change for Trump to win and he’s running out of time. I’m not saying it won’t happen but 538 ( https://fivethirtyeight.com/), who take the average of all polls, have given Trump a 12/13% chance of winning (they have him a 30% chance in 2016).
Trump tweeted yesterday that votes should stop being counted on Election Day which tells you how confident he is.
Close friends of mine in the US, also saying it's a record turnout. Trump has his base, but is it enough to get him over the line? I hope not, otherwise we will witness a huge implosion in that country, which is why I came home.
I agree but how is Biden the alternative? How could a country as successful, wealthy and influential as the US only end up with a choice between these two? The mind boggles.
Mind you we've got Johnson, Gove and Priti, so I'm not crowing...
The Dems selected the candidate who was least divisive and most palatable to those Republicans who can’t stomach more of Trump. Which was the smart thing to do in the circumstances. I think a lot of Americans are craving a calmer period where the President isn’t all over the media 24/7 for something he’s done or said. It really is relentless.
I think the idea with Biden is that even if you don’t agree with most of his policies, and even if you wouldn’t ideally choose someone that age, he isn’t certifiably insane and will genuinely attempt to heal divisions and calm things down in terms of rhetoric, both domestically and abroad.
Anyone who doesn’t think Trump is demonstrably off his head and senile to boot, should try and sit through one of his rallies. He’s always been a terrible person, but he is also a rambling, self-pitying idiot. With the shenanigans with the USPS and the sham instalment of ACB to the Supreme Court, I think Biden needs a heavy Electoral college win to avoid Trump pulling stunts to contest the outcome. I don’t want to get my hopes up, but the signs so far are looking decent/good in most of the battleground states. Whatever the result, 40% of US electorate consistently poll as approving of his performance. The truest thing he ever said was that he could shoot someone on 5th Ave and none of his followers would give a sh it.
Close friends of mine in the US, also saying it's a record turnout. Trump has his base, but is it enough to get him over the line? I hope not, otherwise we will witness a huge implosion in that country, which is why I came home.
I recommend the 538 politics podcast if you want unbiased commentary on polling etc. They include conservative and liberal polling to arrive at their averages.
Some people will point to 2016 as a reason not to believe polls but important to note that the polls were more volatile back then (more undecided voters, uncertainty over Clinton and October surprises hit her hard) and the final result was within the margin of error given by 538.
In 2016, Trump had a c30% chance in the week of the election according to 538 which isn’t insurmountable. The polls this year have been fixed at a similar level (Biden ahead by 10%) for some time. This 10% gap also reflects the approval rating of Trump which has been in the low 40% for most of this year.
Again, I’m not saying it’s impossible for Trump to win and stranger things have happened but it would take some turnaround from here.
I recommend the 538 politics podcast if you want unbiased commentary on polling etc. They include conservative and liberal polling to arrive at their averages.
Some people will point to 2016 as a reason not to believe polls but important to note that the polls were more volatile back then (more undecided voters, uncertainty over Clinton and October surprises hit her hard) and the final result was within the margin of error given by 538.
In 2016, Trump had a c30% chance in the week of the election according to 538 which isn’t insurmountable. The polls this year have been fixed at a similar level (Biden ahead by 10%) for some time. This 10% gap also reflects the approval rating of Trump which has been in the low 40% for most of this year.
Again, I’m not saying it’s impossible for Trump to win and stranger things have happened but it would take some turnaround from here.
Thanks for recommending the podcast, TIV. I follow their website every day and I find them unbiased as well. Will tune into the podacst for the next week.
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
10 months ago he was a shoe in. His gung ho politics seemed to work with the economy going well and he did a good job with his public distraction of North Korea which allowed Russia to take out ISIS on the relative quiet, let's be honest, Western politics was never going to have the guts to sort that one out.
He could, and should, have been better backed up by the West taking on China. Ultimately, China is his undoing, they unleashed a social issue and Trump can't do social issues.
We know who top dog is now and it's not the US. The next four years I reckon the calm before the storm.
What did the great soothsayer base he’s predictions on?
I have had a successful run on predictions: Trump, Brexit, two UK elections and the changing Tory leadership. Nothing based on analytics I hasten to add, bit down to pure educated hunches.
It’s on this basis that my only prediction for this US election, is that regardless of who wins: there will be blood spilled in America. Its teed up with the loading of the SC; the postmaster general closing election return boxes; voter suppression; galvanising the religious right, for a battle.
'Always In Motion' by John Honney available on amazon.co.uk
10 months ago he was a shoe in. His gung ho politics seemed to work with the economy going well and he did a good job with his public distraction of North Korea which allowed Russia to take out ISIS on the relative quiet, let's be honest, Western politics was never going to have the guts to sort that one out.
He could, and should, have been better backed up by the West taking on China. Ultimately, China is his undoing, they unleashed a social issue and Trump can't do social issues.
We know who top dog is now and it's not the US. The next four years I reckon the calm before the storm.
Not aiming this at you, but in the same way I don’t understand football fans who blame SKY for ruining football, then paying SKY subscriptions every month, I think if you worry about the rise of China, you ought to think about where products you buy are manufactured. Without Western consumers, China is half the power. Sometimes it seems impossible to avoid buying goods made in China, but there’s often an alternative if you’re prepared/able to pay a premium. I have a lot of issues with the Chinese authorities and from a British perspective, I’d sooner have the US running things, however much that troubles me at times. So I try and spend my money elsewhere.
I recommend the 538 politics podcast if you want unbiased commentary on polling etc. They include conservative and liberal polling to arrive at their averages.
Some people will point to 2016 as a reason not to believe polls but important to note that the polls were more volatile back then (more undecided voters, uncertainty over Clinton and October surprises hit her hard) and the final result was within the margin of error given by 538.
In 2016, Trump had a c30% chance in the week of the election according to 538 which isn’t insurmountable. The polls this year have been fixed at a similar level (Biden ahead by 10%) for some time. This 10% gap also reflects the approval rating of Trump which has been in the low 40% for most of this year.
Again, I’m not saying it’s impossible for Trump to win and stranger things have happened but it would take some turnaround from here.
Worth noting that at the time of the 2016 election 538 had Trump with a higher chance of winning than most other sites and proved to be right. And unlike some of the polls at the time which were skewer republican in terms of their sample, 538 has always been relatively neutral
Not aiming this at you, but in the same way I don’t understand football fans who blame SKY for ruining football, then paying SKY subscriptions every month, I think if you worry about the rise of China, you ought to think about where products you buy are manufactured. Without Western consumers, China is half the power. Sometimes it seems impossible to avoid buying goods made in China, but there’s often an alternative if you’re prepared/able to pay a premium. I have a lot of issues with the Chinese authorities and from a British perspective, I’d sooner have the US running things, however much that troubles me at times. So I try and spend my money elsewhere.
absolutely, if we are to be consumers, the least we can do is be informed - albeit it can be restrictive, then depressing, but enlightening and eventually, maybe, liberating. How much of that shit do we really need anyway?
The good ol' U S of A. The biggest rogue/terrorist state on this earth. They love to dig out the Islamic states, but they are worse. Any nation that is god fearing/has religion at its heart always seems to be nuts. In all honesty it's complete madness for such a nation to have so much wealth/power, to then elect leaders who also just as nuts (as someone else has alluded to, the candidates selected by business anyway). Hopefully the least nuts of the two candidates wins
I'm amazed that Joe Biden stands even half a chance of getting elected after the information discovered on Hunter Biden's computer. The media majority have done a good job keeping the info off much of the internet but surely as election day gets closer, a lot more will be revealed.
I'm amazed that Joe Biden stands even half a chance of getting elected after the information discovered on Hunter Biden's computer. The media majority have done a good job keeping the info off much of the internet but surely as election day gets closer, a lot more will be revealed.
To be honest, the whole American political system is bent as fcuk. Look at all the wars they start for no good reason (other than serving the needs of the businessmen who permit them to stand for election solely to be their puppets). I suppose the same could be said of every other nation, but the USA is by far the worst. Keep the people god fearing then do whatever you like and go and rape and pillage around the globe. Absolute crooks, all of them!
I'm amazed that Joe Biden stands even half a chance of getting elected after the information discovered on Hunter Biden's computer. The media majority have done a good job keeping the info off much of the internet but surely as election day gets closer, a lot more will be revealed.
The reality is the Hunter Biden story has barely registered with most voters. Maybe it would have more resonance if the US had a president who didn’t have members of his family working in the White House with similar conflicts of interest. E.g. Ivanka Trump’s brand were granted five trademarks by the Chinese government in 2018/19.
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