| The Future? 11:58 - May 30 with 3993 views | BillyRudd |
I am writing this with the assumption that neither a Covid vaccine or effective treatment becomes available in this calendar year. "Expert" opinion on that seems to range from this September to never!
Taking this uncertainty, I have become to think that the interminable deliberations of the EFL in how to close out the current season are becoming a form of denial of the true nature of the threat to our game. I fully acknowledge that to a large degree, events are out of their control with no timescales to plan towards and a commendable desire to please as many camps as possible. However I fear a lack of application to the far more important question of how are league clubs going to survive in the absence of any meaningful revenue in the coming months. Its going to be no consolation to me if the band on the Titanic manages to finish playing its last tune just before the whole ship slides under water. We see time slipping by in discussing how to finish this season, involving the expenditure of cash on testing that many clubs can simply not afford. At this time it should be financial damage limitation and the eking out of reserves for future survival.
Perhaps its the age profile of the people I have discussed this with but the majority have indicated that in the absence of a vaccine, they will not be attending even if restrictions on sporting event crowds were to be lifted (which I very much doubt). When I look at the demographics of the Main stand it seems self evident to me that many in there will conclude the same.
Perhaps I am jumping the gun and after the inevitable decision to abandon the season for leagues 1 and 2 the far more important issue of how does the pyramid survive going forward will be addressed. Although my fear is that the longer this takes, the more likely that certain clubs will not make it.
It is my understanding (but I am by no means certain) that revenue for a club like Dale is made up in roughly thirds, split paying customers, commercial such as sponsorship and then what dribbles down from the elites via media rights etc. The commercial will disappear in the absence of customers and personally I don,t believe for a second that anything other than lip service will come from the Premiership. So there we have it and I come back to my opening remark with the question. Just how the hell does our precious football ladder survive?
On a personal note I would like to wish all connected with the club, that is staff, players, fans and their families better times going forward and in particular anyone who knows me personally.
UP THE DALE! |  | | |  |
| The Future? on 13:52 - May 30 with 3870 views | isitme |
A well written post and a good insight on the opinions from a section of the fan base.
There will be lots of people who will attend games as soon as they are allowed to, but how many of our limited supporters will stay due to concerns over safety. It will be the same when everything reopens.
If pubs etc reopen in July how many people will go to them? |  | | |
| The Future? on 14:05 - May 30 with 3850 views | D_Alien |
| The Future? on 13:52 - May 30 by isitme |
A well written post and a good insight on the opinions from a section of the fan base.
There will be lots of people who will attend games as soon as they are allowed to, but how many of our limited supporters will stay due to concerns over safety. It will be the same when everything reopens.
If pubs etc reopen in July how many people will go to them? |
The shame of it is that over the 16 games we'd played, our average gate was 3632 and with some highly competitive fixtures to come would almost certainly have ended as another record for Dale in recent history (since the 1970s)
Adding to the 3500+ averages for 2016/17 & 2018/19, the signs were of an upward trend that at one time was probably thought unlikely (2017/18 fell just short)
The numbers coming through the gate for 2019/20 league games, if averaged out over a full season of 23 games, would still be 2526, a figure that itself would've been considered success not that long since
As BR's excellent post illustrates, it looks like we'll be starting from scratch again
[Post edited 30 May 2020 14:07]
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| The Future? on 14:13 - May 30 with 3836 views | TalkingSutty |
| The Future? on 13:52 - May 30 by isitme |
A well written post and a good insight on the opinions from a section of the fan base.
There will be lots of people who will attend games as soon as they are allowed to, but how many of our limited supporters will stay due to concerns over safety. It will be the same when everything reopens.
If pubs etc reopen in July how many people will go to them? |
I can’t wait for the pubs and restaurants to open and when they do I will be using them. It’s all about social distancing and if like myself you visit these places midweek most were never busy anyway. Even in the City Centre it isn’t hard to social distance, obviously it’s a bit different Friday and Saturday nights. Many places also have outside eating and drinking areas/ beer gardens.
I even think that social distancing at Spotland should be achievable, sell 3000 season tickets and social distance 1300 in the Willbuts Lane Stand, 700 in the WMG stand, 400 in the main stand and 600 in the Sandy. Tape off the seats that are not in use and zone off the Sandy Lane. People should be used to social distancing anyway if the restrictions are still in place come August/September. Obviously you could play around with those numbers. Rent some portaloos and have stewards limiting the amount of people entering the toilets at one time. Allow fans to bring in their own refreshments but no alcohol. The Ratcliffe bar and Dale bar could also be socially distanced if it’s home fans only. Due to our fan base i think this will be easier for us than most Clubs, it just needs some thought applying to it. The Club already have a seating plan for season ticket holders, it can’t be difficult to social distance each seat and then give the supporter the opportunity to renew within a few feet of his original seat. Accommodating Visiting supporters adds another headache to the equation so not allowing them might be the best option until we see how things progress with the virus. I think most would be happy with something like that. [Post edited 30 May 2020 14:44]
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| The Future? on 14:24 - May 30 with 3819 views | isitme |
Absolutely.
The key thing is establishments being proactive to find solutions. Businesses can then start to generate revenue and people who are not happy with the level of risk can make their own choices.
Lancashire have already mentioned about the possibility of supporters attending games later in the year. I suppose a few thousand in a large ground like Old Trafford is very manageable. | | | |
| The Future? on 14:43 - May 30 with 3772 views | 442Dale |
| The Future? on 14:24 - May 30 by isitme |
Absolutely.
The key thing is establishments being proactive to find solutions. Businesses can then start to generate revenue and people who are not happy with the level of risk can make their own choices.
Lancashire have already mentioned about the possibility of supporters attending games later in the year. I suppose a few thousand in a large ground like Old Trafford is very manageable. |
The problem will be for businesses that are creative and come up with plans may still not be bringing in enough money to operate, couple that with a customer base that may be reduced by choice, as you say, and it’s the perfect storm that will impact many sectors. Football included. |  |
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| The Future? on 14:53 - May 30 with 3760 views | TalkingSutty |
| The Future? on 14:43 - May 30 by 442Dale |
The problem will be for businesses that are creative and come up with plans may still not be bringing in enough money to operate, couple that with a customer base that may be reduced by choice, as you say, and it’s the perfect storm that will impact many sectors. Football included. |
Things are definitely travelling in the right direction with the virus and although there have been spikes there has been no second waves yet. I was reading earlier in the week that there is a quiet optimism between some virologists that there might not be one..I don’t know what they base that optimism on though. We already have the medication for the virus and it works a treat...social distance and wash your hands, unfortunately quite a few lack the discipline to actually do it. If the likes of Cummings or any other Politician of whatever persuasion decide they want to endanger themselves or others, why do so many grown adults decide, or even suggest that we should follow them off the cliff? It’s about each of us taking responsibility for our own actions instead of expecting Politicians ( or Government aids) to lead us by the hand. As fans of the same Club we should be able to make this social distance work, let’s not expect the stewards etc to have to do it for us, we could all get to games if we did that. [Post edited 30 May 2020 15:07]
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| The Future? on 14:59 - May 30 with 3745 views | isitme |
| The Future? on 14:43 - May 30 by 442Dale |
The problem will be for businesses that are creative and come up with plans may still not be bringing in enough money to operate, couple that with a customer base that may be reduced by choice, as you say, and it’s the perfect storm that will impact many sectors. Football included. |
I agree and for each business how much is enough to make it viable? On Cutgate there is a new coffee shop that has opened, which is currently doing take outs. There is a small eating area inside but with current rules they could probably have one set of customers sitting in. If they were nursing a pot of tea between them for a while that's other customers that couldn't sit in who might be prepared to spend more. That will also apply to pubs and restaurants who will be faced with a dilemma. I suppose restaurants could take bookings and give customers a set amount of time that they can have the table for?
A reduction in social distancing limits to 1 metre would greatly benefit a number of businesses. That is probably why some are campaigning for a change to be made. | | | |
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| The Future? on 15:03 - May 30 with 3736 views | 442Dale |
| The Future? on 14:53 - May 30 by TalkingSutty |
Things are definitely travelling in the right direction with the virus and although there have been spikes there has been no second waves yet. I was reading earlier in the week that there is a quiet optimism between some virologists that there might not be one..I don’t know what they base that optimism on though. We already have the medication for the virus and it works a treat...social distance and wash your hands, unfortunately quite a few lack the discipline to actually do it. If the likes of Cummings or any other Politician of whatever persuasion decide they want to endanger themselves or others, why do so many grown adults decide, or even suggest that we should follow them off the cliff? It’s about each of us taking responsibility for our own actions instead of expecting Politicians ( or Government aids) to lead us by the hand. As fans of the same Club we should be able to make this social distance work, let’s not expect the stewards etc to have to do it for us, we could all get to games if we did that. [Post edited 30 May 2020 15:07]
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And your last point is the issue that seems to be the main concern right now, based on the opinion of scientists. This is a crucial time.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392 | |
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| The Future? on 15:11 - May 30 with 3721 views | TalkingSutty |
Sorry 442, Roccy, I edited the last bit of my post | | | |
| The Future? on 15:46 - May 30 with 3648 views | TVOS1907 |
| The Future? on 15:11 - May 30 by TalkingSutty |
Sorry 442, Roccy, I edited the last bit of my post |
I'm not Roccy! |  |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| The Future? on 15:57 - May 30 with 3646 views | TalkingSutty |
| The Future? on 15:46 - May 30 by TVOS1907 |
I'm not Roccy! |
Soz, i got you mixed up.🙂 | | | |
| The Future? on 16:14 - May 30 with 3608 views | TVOS1907 |
| The Future? on 15:57 - May 30 by TalkingSutty |
Soz, i got you mixed up.🙂 |
Must need your eyes testing. Why don't you have a drive? | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| The Future? on 16:59 - May 30 with 3549 views | TalkingSutty |
| The Future? on 16:14 - May 30 by TVOS1907 |
Must need your eyes testing. Why don't you have a drive? |
...because I've decided to stay in the garden for another month and let my fellow man mingle and.be my human guinea pigs! | | | |
| The Future? on 18:40 - May 30 with 3441 views | YouTubeDale |
By the end of July the pharma industry will be in full swing producing antigen tests to see if you have the virus and antibody tests to see if you have had the virus. Omega, for example, is part of a government consortium which is about to produce millions of home test antibody kits which will cost £10. When all this gets rolled out I think the Government will give the green light for crowds to assemble again, hopefully in August. Obviously those testing positive to an antigen test will be required to self isolate.
Just give it a few months and the world will be in a much, much better place.
Can't wait to see Hendo bagging the club record goal!!! |  |
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| The Future? on 18:54 - May 30 with 3427 views | 442Dale |
| The Future? on 18:40 - May 30 by YouTubeDale |
By the end of July the pharma industry will be in full swing producing antigen tests to see if you have the virus and antibody tests to see if you have had the virus. Omega, for example, is part of a government consortium which is about to produce millions of home test antibody kits which will cost £10. When all this gets rolled out I think the Government will give the green light for crowds to assemble again, hopefully in August. Obviously those testing positive to an antigen test will be required to self isolate.
Just give it a few months and the world will be in a much, much better place.
Can't wait to see Hendo bagging the club record goal!!! |
Has he signed a new contract then? | |
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| The Future? on 19:57 - May 30 with 3355 views | YouTubeDale |
| The Future? on 18:54 - May 30 by 442Dale |
Has he signed a new contract then? |
I am predicting he will. | |
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| The Future? on 20:11 - May 30 with 3335 views | 442Dale |
| The Future? on 19:57 - May 30 by YouTubeDale |
I am predicting he will. |
Even if he does, we won’t be seeing him in August with this season’s FA Cup Final being played then along with the Champions/Europa Leagues. There has been hardly any talk about next season at all with all the uncertainty, let alone mention of fans attending games. Even in countries like Germany who are, by all accounts, dealing with things quite well there, have said banned fans at games until the end of August at present. | |
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| The Future? on 20:32 - May 30 with 3310 views | blackdogblue |
| The Future? on 20:11 - May 30 by 442Dale |
Even if he does, we won’t be seeing him in August with this season’s FA Cup Final being played then along with the Champions/Europa Leagues. There has been hardly any talk about next season at all with all the uncertainty, let alone mention of fans attending games. Even in countries like Germany who are, by all accounts, dealing with things quite well there, have said banned fans at games until the end of August at present. |
Excellent opening postðŸ‘
I as well can’t wait for the pub to reopen (Black Dog obviously 😀)
As regards the coffee shop at Cutgate, their is a Costa machine in the Garage & now one in Tesco express, who on earth would want to sit in what is essentially a car park for the Doctors / Coop breathing in exhaust fumes is beyond me... Saying that, it’s someone’s business & livelihood on the line so best of luck to them |  |
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| The Future? on 08:54 - May 31 with 3131 views | DaleiLama |
My gut feeling is that complacency is creeping in and a second wave is absolutely inevitable. What I strongly suspect is that a large swathe of the populace are utterly fed up with lockdown fatigue and want normality at any cost. It is well known now that the vulnerable are most at risk of a fatality and folk are becoming desensitised to seeing images on TV of people being treated, in the same way as war zone TV coverage has that affect after a while. Individual risk level will become more important to some selfish people than risk to the vulnerable and protecting them. I also suspect that only people who have survived the virus, families of the deceased and NHS front line staff truly respect it.
I really hope I am wrong about all of this, but add in alcohol and disinhibition/worse judgement and I'm struggling to imagine we are "over this" by a long, long way yet and I share the concerns of the experts in the beeb article. Social distancing is not the only way the virus spreads and social settings will give it a field day without good hygiene. There gave been loads of videos posted on line about how dyes/powders spread.
Back to the OP though, one glimmer of hope is the 2m+ vaccines being made and ready for late summer. If they get through trials and work, this may be the real light at the end of the tunnel. I fear what we are experiencing now is a false dawn. |  |
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| The Future? on 09:57 - May 31 with 3092 views | Will_RAFC |
I hope I'm being extremely pessimistic but I don't see the lower leagues competing next season, not in its usual format at the very least.
If the league votes next week not to resume, with the main concern the lack of match day income, then presumably we can't start next season until crowds are allowed back in again. I don't see that being this calender year, and the later it gets, I don't think they will want to disrupt the usual season start/end dates and will make a full campaign impossible. Some outside the box thinking is going to required to enable us to have some sort of competition before a real restart for the 21/22 season.
Maybe some significant money will come down from the top which would enable a behind closed doors start with a weekly/monthly review on fan attendance. Lots of logistical problems all round to sort out with that but it will have to be done. I think once crowds are allowed back, they'll be a massive demand for it, especially if this current situation is prolonged.
Either way, I'm worried about the game below Championship level. | | | |
| The Future? on 19:46 - May 31 with 2926 views | RAFCBLUE |
A really thought provoking post for those at the club in position of leadership and for The Trust.
What does being a Dale fan look like in 2025, given 2020 and likely 2021 will mean a changed football landscape.
The OP's identification of the thirds strategy for revenue - paying customers, commercial sponsorships and media rights is an interesting thought. The latter two will be heavily reduced by a global economy that is about to feel a significant economic headwind as the fall out from pandemic.
Sky Sports, for example, have been letting customers watch for free in the time of no live sport to retain their subscription base; the additional games for the Premier League now all broadcast in the UK is bad for the EFL and sets a tone for the future negotiating rights.
Rightly, or wrongly, the criticial success factor is going to be how well the club retains that paying supporter base for home games. The tone has been set by cheaper season tickets and a desire to shift the average age of those watching Dale games down a bit.
Interesting times but at least this is an entire league problem so we are in a better place than some. |  |
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