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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 14:07 - Oct 10 with 11085 viewsrobith

Seems like an apropos moment to bring back this thread for I believe its 4th iteration. Bit earlier than usual, but when I leave to too late getting the historical numbers is a real pain.

Welcome back to the numerical rollercoaster - last year's was the most traumatic yet!

The idea is to provide some context to our performance throughout the season. We'll be using historical precedent (the average for the last 8 years for automatic promotion, 6th and beating 22nd) and the context of how the current season is performing .

Historical Precedent

Automatic = 1.93 points per game
Plays offs = 1.64 points per game
Survival = 1.00 points per game

Our current trajectory is 1.85 PPG, with a forecast points total of 85 (rounded)

If we convert this to an index, where 1 is hitting the target needed

Automatic index: 0.95
Play Off Index 1.13
Survival Index 1.85

So far this season survival and play offs are exactly in line with historical precedent - but automatics are mildly behind.

But a really positive start! Most importantly having played 28% of our matches, we have 52% of the points needed to stay up!

Commence graphs

vs our historical averagres



Comparable start to previous years - perhaps key will be avoiding those prolonged "points plateaus" that were a feature of Warbz time



Weekly look at how we're faring vs key positions. 22nd left in the mud



Current trajectories. With 13 games gone the variance is low, but shows how competitive things are right now. Still, in a lovely spot

Will update probably fortnightly until things really heat up
[Post edited 10 Oct 2022 14:08]
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 16:33 - Feb 27 with 2508 viewsCateLeBonR

robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 16:15 - Feb 27 by toboboly

Graphs would be good if you're able. I like to be able to visualise our plight.


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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 09:51 - Mar 13 with 2252 viewsrobith



For the first time this season our current points are higher than where the bottom 3's points per game gets them to
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 16:54 - Apr 3 with 1977 viewsrobith



On current trajectories 47 or 46 & GD needed to stay up. I can't see us getting there

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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 17:12 - Apr 3 with 1919 viewstoboboly

robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 16:54 - Apr 3 by robith



On current trajectories 47 or 46 & GD needed to stay up. I can't see us getting there



I think we are saved by dross and points penalties. However I can see next year being just as abysmal with no cash and no-one wanting to take on any of our wasters.

Sexy Asian dwarves wanted.

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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 17:19 - Apr 3 with 1891 viewsrobith

robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 17:12 - Apr 3 by toboboly

I think we are saved by dross and points penalties. However I can see next year being just as abysmal with no cash and no-one wanting to take on any of our wasters.


I honestly can't see us getting another point.

Weirdly I'd back Gaz to put together a team you could get behind with no money tbh
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 17:44 - Apr 3 with 1824 viewsBAWHoops

Yeah, we aren't staying up.

Will be bottom 3 by end of Easter Monday and that's where we will stay

http://blogandwhitehoops.wordpress.com/

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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 20:39 - Apr 3 with 1663 viewsLblock

robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 14:28 - Jan 31 by Northernr



Doomed!


It’s never good looking back is it?!?!?!?!?!

A few of the early posts back up that we were in a false position in October
We hit the heady heights by a very flukey set of results playing against teams who were struggling for form combined with a very short hot spell for Willock which ended in him being crocked.

And to think I said I thought we were safe myself.
Doh!!!

Cherish and enjoy life.... this ain't no dress rehearsal

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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 21:21 - Apr 3 with 1594 viewsOldPedro

robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 20:39 - Apr 3 by Lblock

It’s never good looking back is it?!?!?!?!?!

A few of the early posts back up that we were in a false position in October
We hit the heady heights by a very flukey set of results playing against teams who were struggling for form combined with a very short hot spell for Willock which ended in him being crocked.

And to think I said I thought we were safe myself.
Doh!!!


I think lots of us thought we were safe and would be in with a shout of the playoffs before probably finishing around 10th-12th. I certainly didn't think we would be so bad for so long and given how many games in the Championship are decided by one or two key incidents in a game, I'd have thought that we would have fluked at least another 3 or 4 wins.

Extra mature cheddar......a simple cheese for a simple man

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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 07:36 - Apr 4 with 1446 viewsPlanetHonneywood

To borrow from Olly...

This season is like a bad night out. We got all togged up, got a long lavacious look from the local hottie early doors, but we've ended up with a kebab back at Fat Jenny's flat and ten pints of nutty isn't turning her into gorgeous, especially since she entered into a farting competition with her lesbian -transgender flatmate Graham...and won!

'Always In Motion' by John Honney available on amazon.co.uk
Poll: Who should do the Birmingham Frederick?

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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 11:10 - Apr 4 with 1362 viewstoboboly

robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 17:19 - Apr 3 by robith

I honestly can't see us getting another point.

Weirdly I'd back Gaz to put together a team you could get behind with no money tbh


Agree with both points (pun intended), I just think we have been lucky(!) in managing to do this in a year where so many other clubs are absolutely terrible as well.

Sexy Asian dwarves wanted.

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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 11:17 - Apr 4 with 1355 viewsrobith

robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 11:10 - Apr 4 by toboboly

Agree with both points (pun intended), I just think we have been lucky(!) in managing to do this in a year where so many other clubs are absolutely terrible as well.


Yep, the bottom 3 all have 1 point per game or worse
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