Mercifully it’s almost time for the talking to stop and the action to start. QPR face Stoke City this Sunday knowing in all likelihood that only a win will do in their bid to beat the drop.
Barclays Premier League >>> Sunday May 6, 2012 >>> Kick Off 2pm >>> Loftus Road, London, W12
The famous Al Pacino speech in Any Given Sunday begins with him telling his team he “doesn’t know what to say really” and I know how he feels. How to sum this situation up? It’s an omnipresent torture, like having somebody wrench your arm further and further up your back while all the while you think it won’t go any further and he’ll let go soon and it will all be alright in a minute. There is always that chance, of course, that it might snap off in the guy’s hand.
During the wee small hours of Thursday I suddenly recalled a typically full and frank appraisal I’d had at a former newspaper when my editor dared to ask what kept me awake at night. My problem with appraisals is I’ve never been very good at the whole political answer, bite your tongue, tell them what they want to hear strategy that works so well for everybody else. I should have trotted out some platitude about how much I worry about bettering myself each and every day and how I could improve the newspaper. Instead I was honest: “Girls I’ve got no chance with and results QPR are never going to be able to achieve.”
Not the answer the company was looking for needless to say. I moved on from that paper soon after with a reference glowing through a desire to be rid of me rather than because they actually rated my talents.
For the foolish few who choose to live their lives vicariously through their football team this week has not been an easy one. It began with a Saturday stuffed full of results from clubs around QPR that we didn’t want followed by a Sunday at Chelsea that the playing staff should be thoroughly ashamed of. Week after week, month after month, these players drone on monotonously about understanding the importance and significance of the next game, understanding where they went wrong before, promising to put it right this time, demanding we stick with them and stay united. Lies. Fucking lies.
The sleeping pills have certainly taken a hammering at LoftforWords Towers this week as I’ve watched day turn to night and back again, laid in the darkness fumbling through the permutations for four games of football – two for QPR, two for Bolton. Wigan would seem to be out of it, surely playing too well not to win one or both of their remaining matches with Blackburn and Wolves despite the timely announcement that Roberto Martinez is the manager of the month for April. Likewise Blackburn, who probably have too much to do. A Blackburn win on Monday night against Wigan will of course bring them both back into consideration. As it stands though it’s QPR or Bolton for the third relegation spot.
Preferred permutation one is that Bolton lose both their remaining fixtures to West Brom and Stoke. Two points behind us with two games in hand they’ve played those now and they’re still lower than us in the table. Their fixture list is chaotic, they lost 4-1 in a game many thought they’d win against Spurs during the week and looked tired and demoralised by the end. West Brom and Stoke are both solid Premiership outfits, the Baggies with seven away wins which suggests they could easily make it eight at the Reebok and Stoke formidable at home ahead of next week’s game at the Britannia.
Still, if you genuinely think Bolton will take zero points from these two matches and therefore QPR would stay up even if they lost both their remaining games I would respectfully suggest you’ve passed that bong around the circle enough times now and you should head outside for some fresh air before the craving for chocolate cookies kicks in.
There is the chance that both QPR and Bolton will win this weekend sending us into a nerve wracking final day where we’ll be paying more attention to what’s going on at Stoke than our game at Man City. Regardless of circumstance I just cannot see us getting anything other than a sound beating next week and as I don’t think Bolton will lose twice either that makes this Stoke game a must win match for us. I didn’t think Bolton were that bad against Spurs during the week and the scoreline was harsh on them – I fancy them for four points from their last two games which would leave QPR relegated.
It has crossed my mind that we may get four points as well. A win against Stoke followed by a draw against Man City that ends up with us relegated anyway and Man City missing out on the title would be a very QPR thing to do, and very much like Man City down the years as well. Sort of like two boxers smacking each other at exactly the same time and both lying flat out on the canvas.
The nightmare scenario is that QPR don’t even manage to beat Stoke this weekend leaving Bolton requiring only a draw from their last two to stay up. Not beyond the realms of possibility. I wouldn’t trust this QPR team as far as I could throw it.
Nevertheless, despite everything, QPR are outside the bottom three, and have been outside the bottom three for most of the season. This despite having eight players sent off, losing ten and drawing two of the last 12 away games, conceding six on two occasions, having the worst record against the bottom five of any team down there and so on. That’s not fluke or accident, we just need it to carry on for another ten days. For that to happen we have to beat Stoke, I simply don’t see any other way. It’s not realistic to expect Bolton to lose twice against the same Stoke team that has won one of its last ten and West Brom at home.
But then what if… and had you considered… and if that happens instead… Madness lies within. Madness and insomnia. Bloody football team.
Links >>> Opposition Focus >>> Fixture History >>> Referee >>> Tube Closures >>> Betting
Team News: QPR could be dealt a bitter blow on Saturday morning when a final assessment of Samba Diakite will be made by the medical staff. The Mad Malian missed the Chelsea massacre with a virus and hasn’t trained at all this week meaning his participation is highly doubtful. Heidar Helguson won’t be available for the last two games after suffering further problems with his groin and Ale Faurlin is a long term absentee. Adel Taarabt returns from a one game suspension.
Stoke are likely to recall Danish goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen for the final two games of the season. The Dane hasn’t started for two months but is heading to the European Championships this summer and needs game time under his belt. Jermaine Pennant was arrested again for the umpteenth time in his career last weekend and is a doubt for this game, along with Andy Wilkinson who has a hamstring issue and long throw expert Rory Delap who has a bad back.
Elsewhere: The FA Cup final means that the majority of Premiership matches this weekend are being played on Sunday afternoon. Bolton v West Brom kicks off at the same time as QPR v Stoke and the results will go a long way towards determining who is relegated. Should both Bolton and Rangers win then Blackburn could be relegated on Monday if they lose their crucial six pointer with Wigan at Ewood Park. Aston Villa are technically not quite safe yet and they host Tottenham on Sunday at 2pm.
At the top of the table Man City go first at Newcastle at 1.30pm on Sunday. A win would all but guarantee them the title ahead of Man Utd who play Swansea City at 4pm. Newcastle need the points for their persuit of third and fourth with Spurs at Villa as discussed, Chelsea not in action and Arsenal hosting Norwich on Saturday lunch time. The rest are dead rubbers.
Referee: Fresh from his decent handling of the Manchester derby on Monday night, Andre Marriner is in W12 this weekend for our crunch game with Stoke. Marriner has so far refereed our 6-0 thrashing at Fulham and 50 minutes of a 3-2 home defeat by Sunderland which doesn’t exactly bode well but he’s been one of the Premiership’s most consistently decent officials this season culminating in his big appointment last weekend. For more details please click here.
QPR: Rangers’ run of winning and losing alternate games now stretches across eight matches. That’s four straight home wins and four straight away defeats which, should it continue this week, would leave Bolton requiring four points from two matches to go past us at the foot of the table. Only Sunderland in 2009/10 had more players sent off in a league season than QPR’s current total of eight, and nobody has had more sent off in home games than the six dismissed at Loftus Road this season. Away from home Rangers have lost ten and drawn two of the last 12 heading into a final game of the season at Man City next week who have won 17 and drawn one of their 18 home fixtures this term.
Stoke: The Potters bear all the hallmarks of a team with its mind already firmly fixed on the summer. They have won just one of the last ten matches, a narrow home success over the division’s whipping boys Wolves. They haven’t won away since January 2 at Blackburn and have lost five and drawn three of eight away league games since then. Overall they have won just four times on the road this season and scored only 11 goals – even QPR have got 17 with their lousy away record and notoriously bad travellers Fulham have 12. By contrast they have only lost four times at home, and have drawn games with Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea at the Britannia Stadium this season, and are unbeaten there in six ahead of next weekend’s crucial game with Bolton.
Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding says…
Well it doesn't get much closer than this - a win really is a must here with the daunting trip to Man City on the last day. The less said about the performance last week the better. I find it harsh to criticise the team too much - let’s face it, we played a team full of top internationals with masses of top level club and world cup appearances between them who were on an adrenalin high after recent results, although I would say Newcastle's performance last night proved how much building we have left to do IF we are to stay in this division.
I've always found supporting QPR a bit like watching Eastenders. They always leave you with just a glimmer of hope that something good might happen, but then the following week, you realise that it is all doom and gloom and all you want to do is smack Ian Beale in the bugle. Sunday's game brings the 'anti-footballing' Premier League club model to Loftus Road. Stoke have been built on a solid foundation since joining the Premier League. No-one gave them a prayer of staying up in their first season, yet they have slowly built and improved year on year. Their style isn’t everyone's cup of tea by a longshot, but it is effective. Their away record this season has been very poor by their standards, with only four victories. They have taken a couple of hammerings at Bolton and Sunderland but both of these came after Europa League matches a few days previous and more recently they only lost by a single goal at Chelsea despite playing over an hour with ten men, and gained a point at Spurs. Anyone who thinks this will be easy is kidding themselves.
My biggest fear for the Superhoops is the aerial battle. Stoke do not play pretty football through the midfield and instead continue to bombard the opposition's box however they can with crosses, throw-ins, corners etc. Our recent excellent home performances have been against teams who try and play football - letting them have possession and attacking on the counter with pace of Taarabt and Diakite from midfield – but this is not how this game will be played. It looks likely at time of writing that Jermaine Pennant will miss out which cuts off one supply, but Etherington needs dealing with. Loftus Road is small and compact and will suit Stokes style of play. We conceded soft goals at home against Chris Samba and Wes Brown aerially earlier in season and John Terry scored all too easily last week. Ferdinand is average in air at best and Hill is no Shittu. It won’t happen but Shittu is ideal for a game like this.
I just have a hideous feeling that we will get outmuscled and outfought this game. Elsewhere, thanks to the FA, I expect West Brom to put in a drab performance. I'm surprised to see Bolton at a bigger price to beat West Brom (11/10) than we are to beat Stoke (10/11). I am the prophet of doom this week. I think Bolton are too big at 11/10 (Coral and Stan James) to beat West Brom, and even more unfortunately, I think the price for the draw in the QPR Stoke game at 14/5 with Pinnacle is much too big. I truly hope I have got it completely wrong....
Weekend Picks - Bolton to beat West Brom 11/10 and QPR v Stoke to end in a draw 14/5.
Prediction: Sadly I concur with Owen. Although I always usually back a team that needs to win against one that doesn’t I ‘m going for a draw on this occasion. I just think Hughes’ preferred method of trying to soak up pressure and counter attacking is poorly suited to a game with Stoke and will result in our penalty area being peppered with high balls which our defence will struggle to deal with.
Draw, 14/5 with Pinnacle.
Tweet @loftforwords Pictures – Action Images