Harry Redknapp faces his former club Tottenham for the first time since his summer sacking this weekend with his new employers behind the eight ball, but with renewed hope after a shock win at Chelsea.
Premier League >>> Saturday January 12, 2013 >>> Kick Off 12.45 >>> Loftus Road, London, W12 >>> Live on Sky Sports 1
Returning home from a work trip abroad a couple of months back I managed to lose a five pound bet before I'd even taken my shoes and coat off. "What's new," I asked as I sifted through the mail to which my brother replied "Edgar Davids has signed for Barnet."
I won't repeat what I said to that but I was so certain he was winding me up that I bet him a fiver he was talking nonsense and, like I say, before I'd even taken my first homecoming beer out of the fridge I was already out of pocket. Davids, it turns out, had been player manager at Brixton, which was even more unlikely than him turning up at Barnet, and having moved in at Underhill he promptly named himself captain, and picked himself at centre forward. Chap.
It is turning into a season of the unlikely. Bradford City, potentially poised to become the first fourth tier club to reach the League Cup final since Rochdale in 1962 after already knocking out Arsenal and then giving Villa a good going over in the first leg of the semi final on Tuesday night, is a prime example. Michael Appleton, finally given the chance everybody seems to believe he deserved in management after a long apprenticeship at West Brom and torrid first full job at Portsmouth , then walks out on Blackpool to join Blackburn after just 12 matches. Blackburn who themselves appointed former player Henning Berg and then sacked him ten games later. Nottingham Forest beat Leeds 4-2 and sack the manager straight afterwards. QPR, bottom of the league and without a win in 23 away matches, win at European Champions Chelsea. Chelsea, who sacked the manager who made them European Champions. Arsenal, 4-0 down at Reading win 7-5.
It is a season of madness; a season that has often made no sense whatsoever. QPR will be hoping that the miraculous Chelsea result isn't the end of their involvement.
For the R's, having Harry Redknapp in charge is odd enough. When he was last at Loftus Rod for a meeting between Rangers and Tottenham he was in the opposite dugout and still the hot favourite to become the new England manager. Less than a year later he's now involved himself in a seemingly hopeless relegation battle with one of the league's smallest clubs. Redknapp made a tactical mess of this game last season, playing a narrow attack right into QPR's hands just a week after West Brom had comprehensively outplayed the not-so-Super Hoops with an expansive wide game at the Hawthorns. The consequence was a 1-0 home win, sealed by a Adel Taarabt free kick, and I dare say Redknapp would fork over a tidy sum for the same result tomorrow but he can't rely on Andre Villas Boas getting things as badly wrong as he did the last time these teams met on this ground.
For QPR to escape, having not won any of their first 16 matches, would be remarkable even by the skewed standards of 2012/13. It will probably need another eight wins from the remaining 17 matches and Rangers are currently struggling to beat anybody from outside the borough of Hammersmith and Fulham. The quest for reinforcements during the January transfer window is being hampered by the club's status as a buyer in a seller's market – the other clubs know Redknapp is desperate, and the negotiating advantage is very firmly with the players who have absolutely no football reason to desire a move to Loftus Road with the club in its present state.
But Redknapp is a renowned motivator and he's urging belief from all at the club. Even after a total collapse against Liverpool in the last league game on this ground, a third defeat over a dire Christmas period, he preached the value of faith and sure enough three days later there was that remarkable game at Stamford Bridge .
QPR fans have joked in the past that they'd happily lose every other match in a season as long as they beat Chelsea and perhaps they're about to find out what that feels like – a small coating of very sweet sugar on top of an enormous bitter pill of relegation - but that victory could have so much more value than simply bragging rights and three points. Redknapp may have asked for people to believe, but that result and performance might make them do so: awayday hoo doo broken, connection between players and supporters restored, value of a hardworking team over a collection of individuals reinforced. It could be the turning point. We could be back there next year reminding Fat, Racist and Gobshite all about it – although it seems Chelsea are about to break up that loveable trio.
We'll know a little bit more after Saturday's game with Spurs. Rangers did indeed win this fixture last year during another unlikely run of results that eventually saved them from relegation, which means it's easy to draw comparisons between the two fixtures as QPR struggle again while Spurs chase Champions League places. But QPR are a good deal worse than they were then, while Spurs come into this game in superb form whereas last time they couldn't buy a win. Andre Villas Boas' Manager of the Month award is welcome for QPR fans clutching at straws, but the injury crisis at left back just as Aaron Lennon seems to have hit top form is less ideal.
The result at Stamford Bridge last week doesn't make this game anything other than extremely difficult, and an almost banker away win, but it does empower QPR with the spirit of 'what if…' Another unlikely win here and Redknapp will be preaching to the choir.
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Team News: QPR will start with Ryan Nelsen against his former club despite him spending most of this week in Canada agreeing to become the new manager of Toronto. Who will play to his left is very uncertain though with Fabio Da Silva and Armand Traore injured and causing a headache. Tal Ben Haim played there against West Brom but would struggle against Aaron Lennon’s pace. Junior Hoilett is hamstrung Samba Diakite is away with Mali and Bobby Zamora and Andy Johnson remain on the long term injured list.
Emmanuel Adebayor is available as uncertainty over whether he’s going to the African Nations Cup with Togo next week continues. William Gallas is out with a calf injury.
Elsewhere: QPR's cup replay with West Brom means that instead of going last against Spurs on Monday night, as originally scheduled, they get to go first and set the pace. A win puts the pressure on the teams around them for the rest of the weekend, but a defeat could be a much needed morale boost for the likes of Villa, Southampton and Reading . Once play has finished at Loftus Road I suspect most attention will switch to Villa Park where Southampton visit for a relegation six pointer. Villa had a dreadful Christmas – conceding 17 goals in four matches, drawing one and losing three – and that hangover continued into the midweek game at League Two Bradford which they lost 3-1. Southampton faired better, but go into this game short of recognised centre halves. Reading meanwhile gave their survival hopes a boost with a 1-0 win against West Ham and will fancy their chances against West Brom at the Madejski Stadium tomorrow – the season's early surprise package has just started to wobble a little of late and look vulnerable ahead of this game. Wigan currently complete the bottom three and they're at Fulham, whose form is erratic and unpredictable. It wouldn't be a surprise if three of the four teams around QPR won, but it also wouldn't shock if none of them did. An intriguing weekend.
Newcastle still aren't safe by any stretch of the imagination. With Demba Ba gone they've been rocked today by the news that centre half Fabio Coloccini wants out as well – that would leave them with only Mike Williamson and James Perch to select from in the middle of defence with Steven Taylor still out injured. They have a tough trip to Norwich this weekend Bad news too for Chelsea who have lost to QPR and Swansea at home without scoring in the last week and now go to Stoke which is a notoriously difficult ground for away teams to play at and not really what Rafael Benitez would have chosen this weekend.. Everton v Swansea and Sunderland v West Ham make up the 3pm kick offs.
The top of the league is almost entirely dealt with on Sunday with Man City at Arsenal and Man Utd hosting Liverpool in the two televised fixtures. Watch out for an extra game in hand as well on Wednesday as Southampton go to Stamford Bridge – QPR fans will actually want the home team to win that, but a third consecutive midweek defeat in SW6 for Rafa and his boys would be rather amusing all the same.
Referee: Lee Probert is the man in the middle this Saturday, his third QPR appointment of the season so far. Probert is best remembered by Rangers fans for allowing a 2-1 defeat at Wolves to play to a conclusion under three feet of water, seemingly scared of postponing the game because of the scoreline at the time. Later that same season he harshly awarded Sheffield United an injury time penalty against the R's and sent off defender Andrew Davies which led manager Ian Holloway to brand him the "village idiot". He also sent off Jude the Cat in a home match with Preston because, despite the tail and novelty baseball cap, he was confusing him with Paul Furlong. He's been promoted to the Premier League list since and not done badly at all to be fair to him. He has refereed Rangers' last three meetings with Swansea , and was in charge at Old Trafford for our 3-1 defeat when he wasn't conned by Ashley Young's latest pathetic penalty box dive, but did allow Paul Scholes to do whatever he liked all afternoon when he really should have sent him off. A full QPR case file is available here.
QPR: Obviously the win at Chelsea ended a 14 month, 23 game wait for an away win but it was only QPR’s second victory of the season. They’re now hunting back to back wins in the Premier League for the first time since winning promotion 18 months ago. Shaun Wright-Phillips had 42 shots last year without scoring – more than any other player in the top flight – and his goal at Chelsea was his first in 54 league appearances going back to 2010. The R’s have conceded at least once in their last nine league games.
Spurs: Spurs are formidable opponents for QPR this weekend. They’ve scored in every away match they have played this season and are on a run of nine wins and a draw from their last 11 matches. They’ve won three of their last four away games scoring ten goals in the process, and they were leading the one they lost at Everton into injury time at the end of the game. Late goals are an issue for Spurs, they’d be top of the league based on results after 80 minutes so far this season. Tottenham have taken the lead in 18 of their 21 league matches so far.
Betting:Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding says…
“Rangers enter a London derby for the second time in two weeks, hoping for a repeat of the famous result achieved at Stamford Bridge. Harry meanwhile, pits his new charges up against the team he shaped and moulded into the top four challengers they are today.
“It was a great win for QPR at Chelsea, but as Swansea proved this week, Chelsea are nowhere near as good a side as the press will have you believe. Tottenham are a different proposition altogether. They attack from all angles, have trickery and pace in abundance, and any team who keeps a clean sheet against them comes off the pitch knowing they've earned it. The counter attacking style of Spurs is set up perfect for away games. This goes some way to explaining why they have scored in every away Premier League game they have played this season. Love him or hate him, Gareth Bale is one of the most exceptional wingers the Premiership has ever seen. Lennon is starting to learn how to cross a ball on the other side of the pitch to give them a more potent attack.
“QPR have looked more threatening at home too since Harry has been in charge and this coupled with the fact Spurs have only kept two clean sheets away from home all season, means that this game looks to have goals all over it. Unbeaten in six league games and scoring goals for fun, I fear for QPR here - but the match prices don't interest me. The stats however point to it being a high scoring game and therefore my bet for the match is Over 3.5 Goals at a price of 2/1 (Ladbrokes / William Hill)”
Prediction: Prediction League champion Nathan McAllister tells us…
"Well, I could not have been more wrong with my last prediction, but really who could have foreseen that Rangers would follow up that utterly dismal performance at home to Liverpool by going and winning at Stamford Bridge? An astonishing result, and a fantastic start to 2013. But how typical of Rangers to go and produce a result like that just when many of us had already given up on all hope of survival.
"So that and the late equaliser in the cup tie at West Brom means Rangers remain unbeaten in 2013. How long will it last? Well, after the result against Chelsea the players should feel that anything is possible, but this is a tough, tough game. Playing away from home seems to suit Spurs and their ability to launch lightning fast counter-attacks thanks to the pace, skill and movement of the likes of Bale, Lennon and Defoe. They have visited six of the teams in the bottom half of the table so far this season and beaten five of them. In the Premier league only Manchester United have won more games – or scored more goals – away from home than Spurs. In addition they have a pretty much full strength team available for this one, including key players Gareth Bale and Moussa Dembele – Tottenham have not lost a game in any competition in which both have appeared.
“Although Rangers need wins rather than draws to keep themselves in with a shout of staying up, I’d gladly take a single point from this one just to keep in touch with seventeenth place. However, Spurs should provide a much tougher test for Rangers’ inspirational yet aging centre-half pairing than Chelsea did last week. I’m going for a comfortable away win. But what do I know? I have only got two score-lines correct all season - Clive has already equalled this number, and he’s only been predicting the cup games. So if anyone reads these predictions regularly, let the one below be a source of comfort to you.”
Prediction: QPR 1 Tottenham 3
Scorer: Mackie
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