| The financial cost of relegation 17:46 - Dec 30 with 15804 views | dawlishdale |
I am wondering just how much it will cost us if we drop down to L2 from a financial point of view, and have done some rough figures, which may or may not be accurate, but they are my best guess.
These figures are for a full season.
Loss of TV money £200,000
Loss of away fan income £250-300k
Loss of sponsorship / hospitality programme/kit sales £50k
Loss of home support £200,000
I know that these are rough figures, but they represent around £750k in terms of reduced income should we go down.
And yet the Directors tell us that we currently have no money to improve the squad, which suggests to me that we are currently running at a big annual loss, propped up by the Hogan/Allen transfer fees.
I'd suggest we cannot afford NOT to bring in a couple of players in January, and hopefully shifting out or paying off some of the deadwood.
It's a calculated gamble, but one that imho, we can't really afford not to take.
Discuss... |  | | |  |
| The financial cost of relegation on 12:49 - Jan 1 with 2674 views | RAFCBLUE |
| The financial cost of relegation on 18:31 - Dec 31 by TVOS1907 |
Brentford were also able to offer those players Championship football, substantially higher wages than we could afford and the ‘benefit’ of living in London.
We are two totally different clubs.
My point about pressing matters was that focusing on our current predicament is a bit more important to me this weekend. |
Footballers are geographically mobile but I agree that higher wages and level of football are the attraction factors. Brentford were just a League 1 team when they started this model - and they are bloody good at delivering against it and reinvesting the profit.
If you look at the teams that have adopted this as well as Brentford I can list Burnley, Huddersfield, Brighton, Burton, Sheffield United, Peterborough and Luton.
You have to do it over five years AND be brave enough to reinvest within a year in your identified targets and there is some risk there as you're going to be selling that new player within six transfer windows of purchase.
Our reinvestment record is quite poor IMO; we don't like spending money and therefore don't do it well.
Like it or not, extracting the Premier League money from the top of the pyramid by feeding them players is now the name of the game.
Sunderland got £100m in TV money along last year for finishing bottom of the Premier League vs Sheffield United getting £1.3m for winning League 1 and getting £4.3m (ish) this season.
Clubs who can develop pipelines of £1m plus add on players for the next few years will have their operation paid for by the Premier League.
We can be one of those clubs if our manager and directors want to be, obviously at the appropriate level. |  |
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| The financial cost of relegation on 14:01 - Jan 1 with 2607 views | Shun |
Really interesting debate between RAFCBLUE and TVOS, some interesting and impressively-researched points, thank you. While Brentford's is an admirable model and one we really should be looking to emulate, I do agree with TVOS and rkershaw that the more imminent concern is what we do in January with regards to the rest of this season. Saxon posted yesterday that while our club rightly focuses on the long-term, now is probably the first time in Hill's tenure that the short-term has to take priority. That's why names like COG and Perkins have been mentioned - absolutely no resale value but they might see us safe this season - so precisely the opposite of the Brentford model.
I also think TVOS is right when he says we're a different club to Brentford, in that they had a hugely improved starting point when they adopted this model than we would ever have, despite our financial health right now.
RAFCBLUE mentioned how our club seems to lack a bit of courage when it comes to reinvesting, and that's probably the main reason that while we'd like to emulate Brentford, we probably won't. I was so impressed with our boldness in the summer with regards to the Williams transfer as it seemed to be exactly the sort of transfer you're talking about, but that's very much a rare occurrence and perhaps Williams' limited success here might deter the club from doing it again. |  | | |
| The financial cost of relegation on 17:53 - Jan 1 with 2504 views | RAFCBLUE |
| The financial cost of relegation on 14:01 - Jan 1 by Shun |
Really interesting debate between RAFCBLUE and TVOS, some interesting and impressively-researched points, thank you. While Brentford's is an admirable model and one we really should be looking to emulate, I do agree with TVOS and rkershaw that the more imminent concern is what we do in January with regards to the rest of this season. Saxon posted yesterday that while our club rightly focuses on the long-term, now is probably the first time in Hill's tenure that the short-term has to take priority. That's why names like COG and Perkins have been mentioned - absolutely no resale value but they might see us safe this season - so precisely the opposite of the Brentford model.
I also think TVOS is right when he says we're a different club to Brentford, in that they had a hugely improved starting point when they adopted this model than we would ever have, despite our financial health right now.
RAFCBLUE mentioned how our club seems to lack a bit of courage when it comes to reinvesting, and that's probably the main reason that while we'd like to emulate Brentford, we probably won't. I was so impressed with our boldness in the summer with regards to the Williams transfer as it seemed to be exactly the sort of transfer you're talking about, but that's very much a rare occurrence and perhaps Williams' limited success here might deter the club from doing it again. |
I can see the logic in the viewpoint Shun but let's assume that the mercenary short-term signings to get us to League One safety in May 2018 work.
What then? Sign them for another year? Find some other similar short term signings?
A bit like Stephen Dawson did well for us when a higher bidder comes they are gone to pastures new. Perkins, COG etc are short term signings but MUST be coupled with some for 2018/19 and 2019/20.
I'm amazed if we, like other clubs, do not have a list of proactive targets for January. It's a competitive market but if you want something you have to stump up the money to do the deal.
Are we brave enough to do that? The recent data suggests we are a club aiming to sell talent and rely on the loan market.
We are not in a bad financial position. We choose to give our manager and his assistant a five-year deal. Why can't we do that for a player?
I don't believe that we have a clear recruitment strategy. Is that sat with Hill, Dunphy, the board or a collection of them?
If someone offers £1m for Camps from the Championship in late January, I assume that we will accept that offer. Who is his replacement?
I see our recruitment priorities as:
1) Left back
2) Centre back
3) Central midfield
4) Striker
supplemented by needing to strengthen for 2018/19 and 2019/20 with:
5) Goalkeeper
6) Replacement for Ian Henderson
This thread asked about the financial cost of relegation which at the minute should be being planned for.
However 2018/19 and 2019/20 will see us need to want to build a squad capable for League 1 whether we are still here or back in League 2. | |
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| The financial cost of relegation on 18:02 - Jan 1 with 2455 views | D_Alien |
| The financial cost of relegation on 17:53 - Jan 1 by RAFCBLUE |
I can see the logic in the viewpoint Shun but let's assume that the mercenary short-term signings to get us to League One safety in May 2018 work.
What then? Sign them for another year? Find some other similar short term signings?
A bit like Stephen Dawson did well for us when a higher bidder comes they are gone to pastures new. Perkins, COG etc are short term signings but MUST be coupled with some for 2018/19 and 2019/20.
I'm amazed if we, like other clubs, do not have a list of proactive targets for January. It's a competitive market but if you want something you have to stump up the money to do the deal.
Are we brave enough to do that? The recent data suggests we are a club aiming to sell talent and rely on the loan market.
We are not in a bad financial position. We choose to give our manager and his assistant a five-year deal. Why can't we do that for a player?
I don't believe that we have a clear recruitment strategy. Is that sat with Hill, Dunphy, the board or a collection of them?
If someone offers £1m for Camps from the Championship in late January, I assume that we will accept that offer. Who is his replacement?
I see our recruitment priorities as:
1) Left back
2) Centre back
3) Central midfield
4) Striker
supplemented by needing to strengthen for 2018/19 and 2019/20 with:
5) Goalkeeper
6) Replacement for Ian Henderson
This thread asked about the financial cost of relegation which at the minute should be being planned for.
However 2018/19 and 2019/20 will see us need to want to build a squad capable for League 1 whether we are still here or back in League 2. |
If someone offers £1m for Camps they'd need to have either:
1) Brain surgery, or
2) Their arm stitched back on after we've bitten it off
I think we all get what you're saying RAFCBLUE, so no need to repeat it all again, it's just that it's a tad unrealistic given that the type of players who'd be attracted to sign for a club like Brentford in the championship and those who might be willing to sign for us would be rather different, as has already been pointed out. You refer to signing players on five year deals. Shun's already referred to Williams, who was enough of a prospect to warrant an outlay of £100k. Should he have been offered a five year deal? And you're missing one very important point: the contracts we can offer almost invariably have release clauses once offers at a certain level are made, which encourages players to sign them. Take that away, and we'd have less success in attracting them, both from other clubs and bringing them through at youth level
[Post edited 1 Jan 2018 18:10]
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| The financial cost of relegation on 18:18 - Jan 1 with 2409 views | 1907 |
| The financial cost of relegation on 17:53 - Jan 1 by RAFCBLUE |
I can see the logic in the viewpoint Shun but let's assume that the mercenary short-term signings to get us to League One safety in May 2018 work.
What then? Sign them for another year? Find some other similar short term signings?
A bit like Stephen Dawson did well for us when a higher bidder comes they are gone to pastures new. Perkins, COG etc are short term signings but MUST be coupled with some for 2018/19 and 2019/20.
I'm amazed if we, like other clubs, do not have a list of proactive targets for January. It's a competitive market but if you want something you have to stump up the money to do the deal.
Are we brave enough to do that? The recent data suggests we are a club aiming to sell talent and rely on the loan market.
We are not in a bad financial position. We choose to give our manager and his assistant a five-year deal. Why can't we do that for a player?
I don't believe that we have a clear recruitment strategy. Is that sat with Hill, Dunphy, the board or a collection of them?
If someone offers £1m for Camps from the Championship in late January, I assume that we will accept that offer. Who is his replacement?
I see our recruitment priorities as:
1) Left back
2) Centre back
3) Central midfield
4) Striker
supplemented by needing to strengthen for 2018/19 and 2019/20 with:
5) Goalkeeper
6) Replacement for Ian Henderson
This thread asked about the financial cost of relegation which at the minute should be being planned for.
However 2018/19 and 2019/20 will see us need to want to build a squad capable for League 1 whether we are still here or back in League 2. |
The only point I disagree with is regarding recruitment.
The three main recruits I feel we need at the minute are a proper target man striker who can actually score.
Two creative wide players with PACE who can actually create something. We are so devoid of creativity it is embarrassing.
Williams is one of a host of players who needs to go on loan to a league two team to gain some experience. | | | |
| The financial cost of relegation on 18:28 - Jan 1 with 2371 views | RAFCBLUE |
| The financial cost of relegation on 18:02 - Jan 1 by D_Alien |
If someone offers £1m for Camps they'd need to have either:
1) Brain surgery, or
2) Their arm stitched back on after we've bitten it off
I think we all get what you're saying RAFCBLUE, so no need to repeat it all again, it's just that it's a tad unrealistic given that the type of players who'd be attracted to sign for a club like Brentford in the championship and those who might be willing to sign for us would be rather different, as has already been pointed out. You refer to signing players on five year deals. Shun's already referred to Williams, who was enough of a prospect to warrant an outlay of £100k. Should he have been offered a five year deal? And you're missing one very important point: the contracts we can offer almost invariably have release clauses once offers at a certain level are made, which encourages players to sign them. Take that away, and we'd have less success in attracting them, both from other clubs and bringing them through at youth level
[Post edited 1 Jan 2018 18:10]
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We will see what occurs with Camps in January. I don't think £1m for homegrown players (like Allen) is unrealistic. Camps' agent is very active on his behalf.
Certainly, for his career and for some of the other players, it is a backward step to be playing League 2 football in August.
Although in Camp's case he is contracted to June 2020, all that means is we will be able to negotiate on the two years remaining this Summer, I would not be surprised if this board receive an offer that makes them think that they can cash in now. His value decreases if we are relegated.
For Jordan Williams (11) it is too early after half a League One season to say. I'm encouraged we have him, but he's 24 and signed a two-year deal in June 2017 so from the January 2019 transfer window he's a free agent and is valueless.
Would we cash in if the right offer gets made? Yes, we always do.... | |
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| The financial cost of relegation on 18:34 - Jan 1 with 2353 views | D_Alien |
| The financial cost of relegation on 18:28 - Jan 1 by RAFCBLUE |
We will see what occurs with Camps in January. I don't think £1m for homegrown players (like Allen) is unrealistic. Camps' agent is very active on his behalf.
Certainly, for his career and for some of the other players, it is a backward step to be playing League 2 football in August.
Although in Camp's case he is contracted to June 2020, all that means is we will be able to negotiate on the two years remaining this Summer, I would not be surprised if this board receive an offer that makes them think that they can cash in now. His value decreases if we are relegated.
For Jordan Williams (11) it is too early after half a League One season to say. I'm encouraged we have him, but he's 24 and signed a two-year deal in June 2017 so from the January 2019 transfer window he's a free agent and is valueless.
Would we cash in if the right offer gets made? Yes, we always do.... |
If the whispers about Camps have any substance whatsoever, it'd certainly go some way towards explaining why he disappears from games until a freekick on the edge of the box turns up; he'd be simply going through the motions to avoid injury. Having players who only perform when it matters to them (and NML was another one for much of last season) isn't doing the club any favours
[Post edited 1 Jan 2018 18:38]
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| The financial cost of relegation on 19:49 - Jan 1 with 2258 views | rochdaleriddler |
| The financial cost of relegation on 18:34 - Jan 1 by D_Alien |
If the whispers about Camps have any substance whatsoever, it'd certainly go some way towards explaining why he disappears from games until a freekick on the edge of the box turns up; he'd be simply going through the motions to avoid injury. Having players who only perform when it matters to them (and NML was another one for much of last season) isn't doing the club any favours
[Post edited 1 Jan 2018 18:38]
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I disagree about NML , he suddenly clicked, without him we would have finished well down the league. WE owed him nothing, he owed us the same. I imagine we paid him peanuts, hence why he left |  |
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| The financial cost of relegation on 20:08 - Jan 1 with 2210 views | TVOS1907 |
| The financial cost of relegation on 19:49 - Jan 1 by rochdaleriddler |
I disagree about NML , he suddenly clicked, without him we would have finished well down the league. WE owed him nothing, he owed us the same. I imagine we paid him peanuts, hence why he left |
... to go to play in the Championship.
Whatever we paid him is/was irrelevant, as Cardiff will be paying him handsomely. |  |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| The financial cost of relegation on 10:05 - Jan 2 with 2020 views | ParkinsGimp |
| The financial cost of relegation on 18:30 - Dec 30 by 1mark1 |
There might not be a reduction in home support, if we were winning more games. Any increase in match day attendance might well mean refreshment sales being better, for the home ends.
Obviously though the away support would be a lot less, which in turn effects the refreshments sold.
So as well as overall attendances being down, refreshment sales would take a hit. |
And how will we win games in League Two when the majority of currently players would struggle to hold down a first team place in the National League? We could of course get more broken toys and losers from poor clubs below us and hope that one can be polished of course.... it worked once ...:-) | | | |
| The financial cost of relegation on 10:08 - Jan 2 with 2015 views | TVOS1907 |
| The financial cost of relegation on 10:05 - Jan 2 by ParkinsGimp |
And how will we win games in League Two when the majority of currently players would struggle to hold down a first team place in the National League? We could of course get more broken toys and losers from poor clubs below us and hope that one can be polished of course.... it worked once ...:-) |
... with that Mendez-Laing bloke you thought was rubbish. | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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