Its deja vu for Southampton Football Club after West Ham United won their game in hand at Peterborough last night, nothing changes the goals remain the same.

This time last season as we chased the second automatic promotion spot in League One I emphasised that all we had to concentrate on was a two points per game average and that if we did so and achieved that then the overall target was far more important than the odd individual point dropped here and there and the same theory applies now.

With all three clubs competing for those top two places now having seven games left the finishing line is starting to become visible, as i mentioned in a previous article, for Saints that precise spot is 92 points in total, if we get that then whatever happens at Upton Park on Saturday neither side can catch us and that means we need exactly 14 points from seven games, funnily enough that two points per game ratio that I have been banging on about all season.

Back in November I predicted we would need 13 wins to get us promotion, plus of course a few draws, I spoke about our poor away record and said that we would need at least 8 wins on the road, some said I didnt know what I was talking about and that our home record would be enough, but my target is not going to be far wrong, since then we have won 11, at time of writing it looks like we may need another 4 rather than 2, but dont forget that doesnt account for West Ham or Reading dropping any other points, so thats probably a maximum rather than a minimum, indeed if we beat Reading at home then almost certainly 3 wins will do it, sat here with 7 games left I think that i got my maths spot on four months ago.

West Ham winning at Peterborough felt like a big blow to our promotion hopes, but if we look at it in the cold light of day, we have to dedeuce that it isnt a blow at all, nothing changes for us, all it means is that the Hammer's arent going to lay down as easy as we hoped they might, but with a six point gap between us and them I know what position I would rather be in and thats ours.

In fact their win last night will hopefully make us focus, if they had of lost a feeling of complacency would have been easy to let set in and with 7 games to go its too early to be complacent, now we can focus properly and go into a weekend knowing that a win at Blackpool will see us gain ground on one of the chasing teams, possibly both and that even a draw will still see us lose no ground to at least one, this weekend is one that if we focus then we can take another big step.

So we stand this morning well versed on what we now need to do in the next month, as it has always been the most important game is the next one and every game is a must win game, if we do this then it doesnt matter what our rivals do, after this weekend the finishing line wont just be a lot nearer but it will be a lot more visible to us thant it will be to the other two, whatever the results on Saturday, we just need to make sure that we get the job done sooner and put the pressure on them and not ourselves.

Photo: Action Images

stmichael added 10:37 - Mar 28 Believe me we are no where near promoted yet. West Ham have an easier run in to us in my opinion and if they sort there home form out will win the league. I cant see them dropping another point away from home whereas our away fixtures are very difficult. Reading on the bright side have a run in from hell. I can see the game with Reading at SMS being the most important game almost in the history of the club in terms of what it will mean financially to acheive or miss out on promotion. I said at the start of the week that it would not take a set of extraordinary results for us to be 3 points ahead of West Ham on Saturday pm. I predict WHAM will pip us to the championship by 1 point and us to pip Reading by 1 point. LOSE to Reading at SMS and its the play offs for us.

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OldRed added 12:14 - Mar 28 Very gloomy and pessimistic from stmichael. To say someone has an easier run in has not learnt the lessons of life in the Championship. It would take a monumental crash from Saints for WHU to overtake us and it just won't happen.
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bstokesaint added 12:31 - Mar 28 Come on Stmichael are you having a laugh? West Ham have got to play Reading (2nd), Birmingham (6th), Brighton (4th), Leicester (11th) and Hull (9th). They've drawn just recently against easier teams than those. Out of their two other easier games they have Bristol, who are scrapping to stay out of relegation. Barnsley looks about the only banker there. On paper. I don't want to get carried away though and last night's result was a bit of a blow, although not entirely unexpected. In reality had WHU lost I would have thought us promoted. Now like you say Nick we need to stay on our toes and not get complacent. 5-6 point leads are eaten up very quickly if you have a couple of bad games. I'm currently quite nervous about Saturday, to the extent that I'd probably be happy with a point. I know they were poor against us previously (gifted them the draw in reality), and against WHU and Reading, but draws at Blackpool and Middlesbrough wouldn't be a disaster. If I dared to dream I'd say if we can win on Saturday I'd consider that result the first result on the back straight to promotion. Because of the other fixture at Upton Park a large gap would open up somewhere. We also have the advantage (I think you could call it that) of knowing the result of that game first. Hopefully that will inspire us even more.

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schatfield added 12:50 - Mar 28 Agree, Reading do have the run in from hell, but they are still the form team at the moment and I cant see them losing any of their games - yes, they will draw a few though. I also think they will beat WHU at the weekend. And yep, also nervous about us v Blackpool - they were spanked last game and Holloway was furious, Cant see them playing like that again with us......would happily take a draw from this game.

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squidofdespair added 12:54 - Mar 28 you lot are pretty conident with your predicts. you must all be millionaires from betting on the gee-gees.
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schatfield added 13:07 - Mar 28 Its all good fun predicting outcomes! what else we going to do today, work??! Internet is much more fun at the desk..
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bstokesaint added 13:09 - Mar 28 "Confident"? I wouldn't touch the Championship if I was betting any money, it's way too unpredictable. You'd definitely be better off with the horses.
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tiptop added 15:00 - Mar 28 Things can change stmichael and we could lose a lot of the remaining games. But we could well just continue with our good form. As Nick said I would rather be us than WH with our form, ability, goal threat and squad and now a certain Billy Sharp making his mark after straining at the leash we are looking good to take the further necessary points. Its going to be really close but I don't believe that any team wants it more than Saints. True we have to remain on our toes of course.The squad will be well aware of that. Be nervous but be confident positive without being cock sure! The games are going to be that much tougher with more riding on individual results now but as saints have proved they can rise to this intensified challenge. In NA we trust! side note..love this!: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-dirty-tackle/southampton-ask-fans-inappropr

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Whatsforpud added 16:46 - Mar 28 The only way to get 14 points is to win 4, and draw 2, leaving room for 1 loss. That seems rather daunting. Lets hope that it wont be that tight. We might even have to play our joker - our goal difference. If it seems daunting to us, the view from Reading and West Ham must seem more so.
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ThereIn76 added 16:59 - Mar 28 Reading are not the form team - we are!
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SanMarco added 18:23 - Mar 28 Therein76 is right. Last 10 games: Reading 8-1-1; Saints 8-2-0
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OldRed added 21:12 - Mar 28 Last 6 matches: 1st Saints= 5-1-0 2nd Watford= 4-2-0 3rd Reading= 4-4-1 . . 8th WHU = 1-5-0
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OldRed added 21:12 - Mar 28 sorry! Reading = 4-1-1
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