| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:52 - Mar 13 with 2323 views | monmouth |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:42 - Mar 13 by jasper_T |
Vaccines are a way to manufacture herd immunity without people having to go through the full virus themselves. But just look at the recent mumps outbreak in the academy, it doesn't take many people skipping their jabs to let these things go wild again.
Defeating the virus will also involve developing better ways to treat the illness(es) it causes, and having more facilities (respirators mainly) available for the people who need hospitalisation all at the same time. This is where delaying the spread for even a few weeks can make a huge difference in the number of people dying.
Potentially this one never fully goes away, like the flu, but we can be better equipped to manage it and save lives in the future. In most countries the priority is limiting the imminent death toll by flattening the curve on rate of infection so that people aren't denied treatment because none is available. Here we want to "take it on the chin". |
And let people die? The ultimate taking one for the team?
Oh well, it's been nice knowing you all. |  |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:54 - Mar 13 with 2320 views | Glyn1 |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:37 - Mar 13 by karnataka |
How about every remaining match settled by a penalty shootout? |
Or simply cancel the whole season, so that Man City remain PL Champions and no-one is promoted from the Championship.
I'm sure Liverpool and Leeds fans wouldn't mind. |  |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:55 - Mar 13 with 2316 views | KGriz16 |
Season will be played later in the year, Euros must be getting cancelled and perhaps season will start later in August. Common sense really. |  | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 16:14 - Mar 13 with 2277 views | TenbySwan |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:21 - Mar 13 by Professor |
Rugby now postponed too |
At least they did it in plenty of time to stop the Scots from travelling. |  | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 16:31 - Mar 13 with 2222 views | londonlisa2001 |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:42 - Mar 13 by jasper_T |
Vaccines are a way to manufacture herd immunity without people having to go through the full virus themselves. But just look at the recent mumps outbreak in the academy, it doesn't take many people skipping their jabs to let these things go wild again.
Defeating the virus will also involve developing better ways to treat the illness(es) it causes, and having more facilities (respirators mainly) available for the people who need hospitalisation all at the same time. This is where delaying the spread for even a few weeks can make a huge difference in the number of people dying.
Potentially this one never fully goes away, like the flu, but we can be better equipped to manage it and save lives in the future. In most countries the priority is limiting the imminent death toll by flattening the curve on rate of infection so that people aren't denied treatment because none is available. Here we want to "take it on the chin". |
That last bit is complete and utter bollox. |  | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 16:32 - Mar 13 with 2229 views | Swanjaxs |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:27 - Mar 13 by Swansea93 |
On Talksport they were saying rules state as long as they have 3 weeks break between a season end and a new season they can play up until July. |
Perhaps the football authorities around the world can get Talksport to run thier super computer to tell us the outcome of every computation in the world of football? |  |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 16:53 - Mar 13 with 2185 views | raynor94 |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:27 - Mar 13 by Swansea93 |
On Talksport they were saying rules state as long as they have 3 weeks break between a season end and a new season they can play up until July. |
That's ok then, no matter how many die in the meantime |  |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 18:05 - Mar 13 with 2126 views | Flashberryjack |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 12:13 - Mar 13 by Professor |
This is largely through stupidity of reporting and rubbish on social media. Johnson's plan on herd immunity is flawed scientifically (there is no infection where herd immunity is reached at 60% of a population are immune) and sacrifices tens, if not hundreds of thousands of people. It may be that other measures won't work either, but social distancing and reducing contacts with others seems sensible even to a sceptic like me..
If we were around in WW2 then we would probably be dead already, not sprechen Deutch. |
I wouldn't have thought Boris knows much about Microbiology and how it spreads, probably relies on advice given to him by experts such as yourself. |  |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 18:50 - Mar 13 with 2077 views | Glyn1 |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 16:53 - Mar 13 by raynor94 |
That's ok then, no matter how many die in the meantime |
I have no idea what you're trying to say. | |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 19:20 - Mar 13 with 2040 views | legoman |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 15:37 - Mar 13 by karnataka |
How about every remaining match settled by a penalty shootout? |
...or a game of "rock,paper, scissors"? |  |
| "M'sieur, you said your dog did not bite!"
"That's not my dog" |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 19:25 - Mar 13 with 2035 views | thornabyswan |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 19:20 - Mar 13 by legoman |
...or a game of "rock,paper, scissors"? |
What about promoting the team with the most sideways passes. | |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 19:27 - Mar 13 with 2034 views | legoman |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 19:25 - Mar 13 by thornabyswan |
What about promoting the team with the most sideways passes. |
"We're goin up, we're goin up, Swans are goin up"!! | |
| "M'sieur, you said your dog did not bite!"
"That's not my dog" |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 19:30 - Mar 13 with 2032 views | legoman |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 13:19 - Mar 13 by Professor |
Primarily around the concept of herd immunity. If a proportion of a population is immune (ideally vaccinated) then it acts as a 'firebreak" to transmission. This is dependent on how transmissible and infection is- defined by R0 or the reproductive number. In an R0 of 1, each infected person infects one other. R0 of 10 means 10 become infected. The RO is important as is the efficacy of a vaccine or immune response.
So 2 main points
1. Herd immunity usually needs 70-95% of a population immune with a good level of protective immunity. For something like measles where R0 is 20 this is at the top end (and why we get more measles now after the drop in MMR uptake to about 80%). For a low R) 1-2 it is around 70%. Best guess for SARS CoV2 (the virus causing Covid 19) is around 2-3.5. If at 3.5 then we would need closer to 80% coverage. Much higher than suggested
2. RNA viruses mutate more quickly, so protection against flu for example (another class of RNA viruses called orthomyxoviruses) is never that great, so we don't get a good herd immunity effect even with a low R0 unless we get very high coverage with a vaccine
In addition what we don't know is how good exposure is at generating protective immunity. The fact is we probably need 80-90% of a population immune to have a strong herd effect -there is still some at lower levels but much diluted.
Most importantly the strategy really does not care if people get the infection or not-lots will die before we get protection. |
Prof, that's a great answer thank you. Now I'm a long way from being an expert, so I put your responses to my virologist son who comments as follows
"On 1) the govt isn't looking to have full coverage of herd immunity as your swans man says. They just want some level of protection. It is a sliding scale. 50% immune is better than none and will dampen the overall effect. This is important as we have no vaccine for covid and won't have one for minimum 12 months.
On point 2) he is kinda correct for certain RNA viruses. Covid is an RNA virus but the enzyme it uses to copy it's genetic material has a very good 'proof reading' ability. that means if it makes an accidental mutation (which is how a lot of them arise) it terminates its replication so mutations aren't passed on. So covid doesn't have a high mutation rate at all. This is proven by genetic lineage tracing back to the early Wuhan cases" | |
| "M'sieur, you said your dog did not bite!"
"That's not my dog" |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 21:13 - Mar 13 with 1944 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
If the season goes on beyond June, how many players will we have left? |  |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 21:42 - Mar 13 with 1915 views | Smellyplumz |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 19:30 - Mar 13 by legoman |
Prof, that's a great answer thank you. Now I'm a long way from being an expert, so I put your responses to my virologist son who comments as follows
"On 1) the govt isn't looking to have full coverage of herd immunity as your swans man says. They just want some level of protection. It is a sliding scale. 50% immune is better than none and will dampen the overall effect. This is important as we have no vaccine for covid and won't have one for minimum 12 months.
On point 2) he is kinda correct for certain RNA viruses. Covid is an RNA virus but the enzyme it uses to copy it's genetic material has a very good 'proof reading' ability. that means if it makes an accidental mutation (which is how a lot of them arise) it terminates its replication so mutations aren't passed on. So covid doesn't have a high mutation rate at all. This is proven by genetic lineage tracing back to the early Wuhan cases" |
Does your son know who produced the virus and how it was written about in a book in 1989? |  |
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""Although I cannot promise or predict the future, I can guarantee one thing - the current board of directors will always fight, as we have done over the last 12 years, to work together as one with the Supporters Trust to make 100% sure that Swansea City football club remains the number one priority in all our thoughts and in every decision we make." | | Poll: | Huw Jenkins |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 21:44 - Mar 13 with 1910 views | legoman |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 21:42 - Mar 13 by Smellyplumz |
Does your son know who produced the virus and how it was written about in a book in 1989? |
Lost me there, fella | |
| "M'sieur, you said your dog did not bite!"
"That's not my dog" |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 21:50 - Mar 13 with 1899 views | Professor |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 14:58 - Mar 13 by LeonWasGod |
Does the suggestion coming from China that people can be re-infected imply that it might be difficult/impossible to build up a herd immunity? |
More or less. There will be a degree of effect,
but if there is an absence of protective immunity in all exposed not makes it difficult to achieve at the levels being suggested | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 21:55 - Mar 13 with 1882 views | Professor |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 19:30 - Mar 13 by legoman |
Prof, that's a great answer thank you. Now I'm a long way from being an expert, so I put your responses to my virologist son who comments as follows
"On 1) the govt isn't looking to have full coverage of herd immunity as your swans man says. They just want some level of protection. It is a sliding scale. 50% immune is better than none and will dampen the overall effect. This is important as we have no vaccine for covid and won't have one for minimum 12 months.
On point 2) he is kinda correct for certain RNA viruses. Covid is an RNA virus but the enzyme it uses to copy it's genetic material has a very good 'proof reading' ability. that means if it makes an accidental mutation (which is how a lot of them arise) it terminates its replication so mutations aren't passed on. So covid doesn't have a high mutation rate at all. This is proven by genetic lineage tracing back to the early Wuhan cases" |
1. He is correct, but the breakdown in protection is quite marked. As I said it’s a risky strategy but there is not good one
2. That may be the case- I am not a virologist as such -
More bacteria and Immunology. Generally RNA viruses are more variable than DNA. Coronaviruses are more stable than smaller viruses like flu (orthomyxovirus | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 21:59 - Mar 13 with 1874 views | Professor |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 18:05 - Mar 13 by Flashberryjack |
I wouldn't have thought Boris knows much about Microbiology and how it spreads, probably relies on advice given to him by experts such as yourself. |
Plenty of public health and virology specialists
Suggesting it is a dangerous strategy. It would be good if their evidence was made available | | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 22:35 - Mar 13 with 1837 views | Glyn1 |
So let me get this clear. And I'm very probably wrong. Kids + young adults get it and recover, and this helps the "herd immunity" get to 60% immunity? Can't see families putting their children at risk like that. | |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 02:51 - Mar 14 with 1755 views | TimTtam |
This isn't going to end well. There are 3 likely outcomes:
1) The season is cancelled completely, and all results and points are void. Liverpool may/may not be given the title
2) The season is continued as soon as possible
3) The season stops, but all excess points are carried over to the 2020/21 season. Eg Barnsley start on 0pts and Leeds on 37pts
And the consequences:
1 - Teams in title-winning positions (Liverpool), highly likely to be promoted (West Brom, Leeds, Coventry), and deep in the relegation zone (Norwich, Barnsley, Southend, Bolton) will either suffer or be saved
2 - The end of the season would clash with the start of 2020/21 and set that season back. It also impacts loan deals and the transfer window. There's also no guaranteed starting date this season
3 - Some similar to #1, but this is the best option I think
Any of these scenarios clashes with the Conference. 10/12 games are going ahead today. If they decide to finish the season, then the 2 promoted sides won't be able to enter League 2 immediately, or even at all. That would be cruel to Barrow and Harrogate, who are having great seasons. [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 2:52]
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 10:38 - Mar 14 with 1596 views | Jacket |
What I don't get is why we're stepping down the number of people being tested. The more you test, the more you know who's infected, and the sooner you can start allowing things you get back to normal. We're fackin reducing them at the very time we should be doing the direct opposite. I can go with these buffoons on not closing schools because of the potential danger of increasing infection of pensioners as grandparents look after kids while the parents work, but the rest of the 'policy' is typical Boris buffoonory.
Cummings has secured the oldies vote for Brexit, now they're surplus to requirements it seems, they can all be dead for now, as far as the bald bastard is concerned. [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 10:42]
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 11:40 - Mar 14 with 1545 views | monmouth |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 10:38 - Mar 14 by Jacket |
What I don't get is why we're stepping down the number of people being tested. The more you test, the more you know who's infected, and the sooner you can start allowing things you get back to normal. We're fackin reducing them at the very time we should be doing the direct opposite. I can go with these buffoons on not closing schools because of the potential danger of increasing infection of pensioners as grandparents look after kids while the parents work, but the rest of the 'policy' is typical Boris buffoonory.
Cummings has secured the oldies vote for Brexit, now they're surplus to requirements it seems, they can all be dead for now, as far as the bald bastard is concerned. [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 10:42]
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Big savings on pensions, care and hospitals mind. Every cloud and all that...
There is no easy answer, but I see the WHO has criticised the UK approach so what do you believe? No one knows. It's a massive lab test. I just wish everyone would work together to sort out a wider action plan than every country going it alone.
As todays U turn shows though, Johnson will shit himself when the deaths start mounting up, so expect new policy after new policy. I do actually have some sympathy for once, he is trying to do his best and listen to experts (where's the preposterous tw*t Gove now, still mouthing off?). It's just there really is no painless way to deal with this thing. The state of the NHS will come into sharp focus though, and the imbalance of deaths in poor areas. This might just be a catalyst for social change, if I'm still alive to see it, being an old git with a history of pneumonia and bronchitis. | |
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| All EFL fixtures suspended on 11:43 - Mar 14 with 1539 views | ladyjack |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 10:38 - Mar 14 by Jacket |
What I don't get is why we're stepping down the number of people being tested. The more you test, the more you know who's infected, and the sooner you can start allowing things you get back to normal. We're fackin reducing them at the very time we should be doing the direct opposite. I can go with these buffoons on not closing schools because of the potential danger of increasing infection of pensioners as grandparents look after kids while the parents work, but the rest of the 'policy' is typical Boris buffoonory.
Cummings has secured the oldies vote for Brexit, now they're surplus to requirements it seems, they can all be dead for now, as far as the bald bastard is concerned. [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 10:42]
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Those are my thoughts as well. |  | | |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 12:43 - Mar 14 with 1501 views | Badlands |
| All EFL fixtures suspended on 11:40 - Mar 14 by monmouth |
Big savings on pensions, care and hospitals mind. Every cloud and all that...
There is no easy answer, but I see the WHO has criticised the UK approach so what do you believe? No one knows. It's a massive lab test. I just wish everyone would work together to sort out a wider action plan than every country going it alone.
As todays U turn shows though, Johnson will shit himself when the deaths start mounting up, so expect new policy after new policy. I do actually have some sympathy for once, he is trying to do his best and listen to experts (where's the preposterous tw*t Gove now, still mouthing off?). It's just there really is no painless way to deal with this thing. The state of the NHS will come into sharp focus though, and the imbalance of deaths in poor areas. This might just be a catalyst for social change, if I'm still alive to see it, being an old git with a history of pneumonia and bronchitis. |
NHS & social care underfunding of the last 10 years, loss of EU workers in the care industry and health over the last 4 years and phenomenal borrowing programme announced last week should come to haunt the Tories. However MSM will spin it to make them look like heroes.
Given how unprepared our government (and others) have been to this crisis an invasion be over in days.
On a Swans issue.
If the reaming games are cancelled would expect a refund on STs (just 4 games) or a range of freebies when the programme resumes?
TBH I'd be happy with no refund but free tickets to pre-season and early rounds of League and FA Cup. |  |
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