Just a week after the gutter press were ruling him out for the season, Loic Remy might take to the field for QPR at Swansea tomorrow. The R's need him, with three 0-0 draws from their last four league games.
Premier League >>> Saturday February 9, 2013 >>> Kick off 3pm >>> Liberty Stadium, Swansea
In 2003, Super League side Hull FC moved out of their rundown Boulevard ground and transported their club half a mile to the other side of the housing estate into the shiny new KC Stadium. A sleeping giant of the British game, they also entered the transfer market in a seriously big way to pip every other club in the competition to the signing of New Zealand international Ritchie Barnett, and paid a pretty penny to bring winger Colin Best over from Australia – a 22 year old from the NRL, rather than the Super League standard 30-something clogger who could no longer cut it Down Under and fancied a final pay day in an easier league.
Everything seemed set for a tilt at their first league title since 1991 and an expectant public crowded into their new home for the opening league fixture against the London Broncos – who Barnett had left to join Hull . Despite the attacking flair, the big money purchases and wily old Jason Smith pulling the strings and kicking this way and that, Hull lost 10-4 that night in a thoroughly dreadful game. The problem, or at least part of it anyway, was that in the midst of all the excitement they'd forgotten to buy a hooker. It meant that all the attacking talent money could buy stood left and right, but Hull simply couldn't move the ball to them quickly enough with Andy Last – who would retire into coaching aged just 23 – toiling away in the middle well above his true level and somewhat out of his depth. It was like a Rugby League equivalent of the QPR team that had Steve Palmer and Georges Santos playing together in the centre of midfield – you could play who you liked up front or on the wing, they wouldn't be getting a lot of quality ball.
The belated solution to this hooking issue was Dean Treister, a talented blonde haired Australian who conveniently fell out with the management at Cronulla and was therefore open to the idea of half a season in Britain before Richard Swain, a more permanent solution, arrived from New Zealand for the 2004 campaign.
Treister was wily, intelligent, creative and a cut above most other hookers in the league. But he was also injury prone, and having played little senior rugby for some time in Australia he lacked match fitness. A situation therefore developed whereby games were almost won and lost at Hull the moment the team sheet went in. Of the eight matches they won from May to the end of the season in September, Treister played seven of them. Of the ten he missed Hull lost four and drew one. I remember sitting at the back of the East Stand at the KC Stadium and a roar going up around the place as if a match winning try had been scored when, in fact, it was just the teams emerging from the tunnel and the general public realising Treister was kitted out and ready to play.
Unbelievably, in 2007, Hull contrived to create this same situation for themselves again with Matt Head, and then did so again the year after by signing Adam Dykes – from Cronulla again, you think they'd have learnt from their first shark bite – who it quickly became apparent could be patched up for one game a month at best. That's exactly what Hull did, sending him out for cup matches only. When he played, Hull won, and they reached the Challenge Cup final. When he didn't play, they lost, and they were actually flirting with relegation for much of that season.
It was all a product of poor management and forward planning at boardroom level. They'd tried to solve a problem with the team with a quick fix, and it had backfired. Which brings me onto Loic Remy, who the Daily Mail would have had you believe on Monday might not actually live to see the summer but in actual fact might be fit for this Saturday's trip to Swansea . If last weekend's toothless attacking display against Norwich is anything to go by then QPR have repeated that old Hull FC trick of engineering a situation whereby they're relying almost solely on one player to win them games, and that one player has issues. Remy was a doubt for the Man City game with a hamstring injury, missed the Norwich game with a groin strain, and is doubtful for this weekend's game with Swansea . When he plays, QPR can win, when he doesn't they're rather stuck. Jamie Mackie, God bless him, isn't prolific enough to lead a Premier League strike line by himself, Jay Bothroyd simply isn't good enough to play in this division, and even Adal Taarabt cannot do the whole job himself. It makes the decision to once again loan out DJ Campbell – not the answer by any means but a better alternative option than Rangers possess without him – perplexing.
Harry Redknapp told fans at a club forum this week that he felt sorry for Peter Odemwingie, who had been left in a difficult situation by the manner in which his proposed move to QPR collapsed on deadline day. I feel more sorry for Rangers who desperately needed one of him or Peter Crouch – a done deal on deadline day morning before Tony Pulis changed his mind according to Redknapp – and without either they're now left to rely, it seems, almost exclusively on one rather fragile player. It's a shame for Redknapp more than most because he has shown himself well capable or marshalling the rabble he inherited at Loftus Road into something resembling a coherent unit. The R's have conceded only once in their last five league games and come through matches with Spurs, Chelsea and Man City with clean sheets in that run. The addition of Chris Samba to a defence already playing well and backed by the imperious presence of Julio Cesar – a QPR player as Brazilian captain during the week was certainly a 'never thought I'd see the day moment' – has strengthened the situation further. But without Remy, who is more than living up to his own claim about being a finely tuned Formula One car prone to extended pit stops so far, it seems Rangers are going to be left to stack up the goalless draws.
It leaves the QPR manager stuck between a rock and a hard place. Somewhere in the region of seven wins are required from a team that has only managed two so far this season, and there are now just 13 matches left in which to get them. Redknapp says he won't risk Remy for fear of losing him for a longer period of time and that's understandable because an actual injury of the severity the Mail, Express and others lied about earlier this week would finish Rangers' season. But with so few games left, Rednapp could end up wrapping his forward in cotton wool for no reason at all. It's a difficult call to make.
If Remy is out this Saturday, then rarely has a game looked more likely to end 0-0 than a trip to Swansea City . The Welsh side, famed for their forward planning and steady squad building, have been unusually careless and slapdash in allowing Danny Graham to leave for Sunderland without adequate replacement. They're relying heavily on Spanish wonder-buy Michu for goals now, and he has played his best football this season – including an outstanding performance in a 5-0 opening day win at Loftus Road on day one – in support of a lone striker rather than right at the top of the team himself. Rangers' clean sheets have mostly only earned them draws: three of their last four league games have finished goalless. Michu has scored 16 times this season but doesn't have a goal in his last six which is his worst run since he arrived in this country in the summer and Swansea have failed to score in five of those six matches, drawing three of them 0-0.
There'll be a loud roar from the away end if Loic Remy marches out of the tunnel in all red at five to three on Saturday – not only because it means QPR have a chance to win, but also because he may help alleviate the boredom.
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Team News: Harry Redknapp's bluff over Loic Remy's fitness could only go on for so long and at the fans forum on Thursday evening it was revealed that despite the Daily Mail and Daily Express both reporting the striker had torn his groin muscle and would be out for the season as fact, he has actually done nothing of the sort and will be assessed at training today ahead of a possible return to action tomorrow. Junior Hoilett has returned to training after his hamstring injury but this game comes too soon for him and Bobby Zamora's ongoing hip injury means he's only good for the last half hour.
Swansea have a doubt over a couple of midfielders with Leon Britton struggling with a knee injury and one of his natural replacements Kemy Agustien also a doubt. Goalkeeper Michel Vorm hopes to recover from his own knew problem.
Elsewhere: Well, this could potentially be a rare good weekend for QPR as far as the other results are concerned. With Wigan heading to Chelsea , Reading to Stoke and Southampton hosting Manchester City in the Saturday evening ESPN game there shouldn't be too many points added to the totals at the bottom of the table – famous last words. If Rangers can post points at Swansea then it's all eyes on Villa Park for the early Sunday game as Sam Allardyce's West Ham visit Paul Lambert's struggling Aston Villa side.
Tottenham v Newcastle gets the weekend underway as the early Sky game on Saturday, and the action concludes on Monday as Liverpool host West Brom . Man Utd v Everton is the Sunday 4pm game and everything else is standard midtable fair with Norwich hosting Fulham and Sunderland at home to Arsenal.
Referee: As the situation grows increasingly desperate for QPR one thing they could have done without is a first appointment of the season with referee Neil Swarbrick. The Lancashire official came up with Rangers from the Championship a year and a half ago, and deserved his promotion after several years performing very well in the lower divisions. But last season in his two Rangers appointments at home to Norwich and away at Aston Villa he made a catalogue of mistakes – sending Joey Barton off against Norwich having initially been happy to play on while QPR were in possession (suggesting he'd seen no offence committed by a Rangers player) and a clear an obvious handball appeal against the R's at the end of the Villa game were chief among them. Although that penalty appeal was a let off, he did see fit to give QPR just two free kicks in 96 minutes of football at Villa Park that night. His full QPR case file is available here.
Swansea : Ahead of their League Cup final appearance later this month Swansea, much like QPR, are as tight as a mouse's ear in defence and as threatening as the French army in attack. They’ve failed to score in five of the last six, including the last three, but have only conceded two goals in that time. They're unbeaten in their last six home matches, but they've drawn four of those. Norwich and Everton are the only sides to win on this ground this season. They have tended to concede at home though – 18 of their 28 goals conceded have been at home and they have kept just two clean sheets here in the league and one in the last 11 games.
QPR: Rangers have never won at the Liberty Stadium in four attempts, and are without a win in Swansea in x visits dating back to 1981. The R's have drawn their last four in the league – scoring and conceding just once in the process – and another stalemate here would be the first time they've drawn five in a row in the top flight, and their longest run of draws since they managed six on the spin from January to March 2000 in the First Division under Gerry Francis. Adel Taarabt's penalty miss against Norwich last week was the third consecutive Premier League spot kick missed by the Hoops, although the second of those was netted on the rebound by Bobby Zamora at Norwich.
Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding says…
"As a compiler, very rarely a price comes about which I cannot understand for any reason. Such a price has occurred this week in our very own Hoops game. The general price in the market for Swansea is currently at time of writing - 5/6. Loosely translated, this means out of the possible three outcomes, bookmakers are rating Swansea as having over 50% chance of winning this game. I understand they are a decent side , I understand they are on a high after reaching their first major final since the old king died, and I understand that they have the oldest ball-boy currently operating in the Premiership - but nothing in recent form (the best pointer for evaluating a game) can explain to me why they are such a short price to win this match.
"QPR have kept clean sheets in five out of their eight games this season, only conceding in three of them. One of those games was a complete reserve side against MK Dons and, with the addition of Chris Samba, have notably strengthened the defence. Swansea on the other hand have failed to score in five of their nine games since the turn of the year. Now I know QPR have a poor away record as a whole and Swansea's home record also as a whole is decent, but why would you want to back a team at odds on who have failed to score in three of their last four Premiership games, against a team who has failed to concede in three of their last four games?
"Making money gambling is not about what you think will win. It is about beating the percentages, and for me, there is no reason Swansea should be such a short price here with no significant team news to contradict the statistics. All that said, QPR are toothless too. In fact, everything points to a low scoring game. Time is running out for Rangers and draws are not enough, but they still appear to play cautiously with little urgency. I couldn't be backing Swansea at the current prices even with stolen money, but I can't see a great reason for backing QPR either. The draw looks a huge price at 13/5 and i also think BetVictor's 2/1 about it to be 0-0 at half-time is worth an interest too. I'm afraid I'm not advocating a reason to make the journey into the land of the leek but my recommended bets for this weekend are Swansea v QPR Draw @ 13/5 generally, and also 0-0 HT score @ 2/1 with Victor Chandler."
Prediction:Reigning Prediction League champion Nathan McAllister is not optimistic about QPR's prospects this weekend…
"This game pits together two teams who have become synonymous with scorelines of ‘nil’ in recent times. Swansea have failed to score a single goal in five of their last six matches in all competitions, including all of the last three, but have themselves kept four clean sheets in their last seven games. We are all too painfully aware of Rangers’goal scoring woes, by far the lowest scoring team in the Premier League (18 so far, the next worst are Aston Villa with 23), they have failed to score in four of their last six league matches, but for their part have kept clean sheets in four of the last five.
"So what price a goalless draw this Saturday? Certainly both teams have a real paucity of options up front. Rangers’ strikers are either carrying injuries (Zamora, Remy) or not of the required standard (Bothroyd), while Swansea have been left with just two ‘recognised strikers’ on their books following the sale of Danny Graham, and neither Luke Moore or Itay Schechter have registered a single league goal so far this season. But there is of course one glaring difference between the teams, and it goes by the name of Michu – 16 goals in all competitions so far this season from “the bargain buy of the season”. Michu has actually gone six games without a goal, but like a team on a bad run of form, Rangers do love to help a player out of a goal drought. It’s also worth noting that despite their recent goal scoring troubles, only Chelsea , Arsenal and the two Manchester teams have scored more goals at home this season than Swansea . If Rangers do manage to keep Michu at bay, they also need to stop Wayne Routledge and Jonathan de Guzman, both of whom have scored more goals this season than any single QPR player.
"Once again, Rangers’ game plan will no doubt be to try and absorb everything the home team can throw at them and hope to turn one of their very occasional counter attacks into a match-winning goal. With Cesar and Samba at the back and Taarabt further forward that outcome is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility, but a far more likely one for me is a Swansea victory. I can see Rangers conceding a first half goal for the first time in the league this year, and Swansea comfortably resisting whatever Rangers can muster in response."
Prediction: Swansea 2 QPR 0
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