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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 21 April 18:15 - Apr 12 with 6973 viewsDavillin

Please read this first. Thanks.

“Mathematical Safety” is based on an assumption that if the Swans get no more points from their remaining games, and any other team win every one of their remaining games, the Swans will still end up with more points than that other team at the end of the season. When the Swans reach that position on this chart for three other teams, the Swans are mathematically safe.

[I’m aware that the teams on this chart cannot all win out. It’s not a “final table,” but a chart to show what we need to do to avoid relegation.]

How to read the chart.

“Points” means each team’s present total points.

For the Swans, “Projected” means their points total at the end of the season assuming zero more points gained. For all of the other teams, “Projected” means their final points total assuming they win all of their remaining games.

“Needed” means the number of additional points the Swans need to finish higher than each of the other teams. NOTE WELL: The number “needed” is any combination of Swans winning points and the opponent’s dropping points.

The “needed” number assumes the Swans will continue to have a better goal difference.

p.s. No team on this chart is mathematically safe yet.

I will keep this updated as games are played. I have added a column for goal differences.

In simplified form, look at the "needed" column. This is a "worst case" scenario. We must make up the number shown for each team - either by our getting points, or by that team dropping points, or by a combination of both. For example, on today's chart, to be safe, we need to get 2 more points than either Norwich or Sunderland, and we'll nip them by goal difference.

[Post edited 26 Apr 2014 18:32]

I don't care. I'm old. I don't have to.
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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 20 April on 23:27 - Apr 21 with 1188 viewsDavillin

Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 20 April on 04:13 - Apr 21 by swanny

can we have a swingometer?


I have one, but when I used it in the past, too many people found it even harder to understand than what I put up already above.

I'll prepare it and put it up because you asked. Find it not in the original post, but after this one.

I don't care. I'm old. I don't have to.
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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 20 April on 23:29 - Apr 21 with 1184 viewsDavillin

Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 20 April on 08:24 - Apr 21 by thejack

Crystal Palace and Stoke need deleting from the chart as they are mathematically safe.


You're correct. I've been so challenged by Mr Sumbler's corrections that I've been ignoring everything else - not the least of which are eating, drinking, and using the "facilities."

I'll get the "deleted" part fixed after Saturday's results.

Thanks.

I don't care. I'm old. I don't have to.
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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 20 April on 23:30 - Apr 21 with 1180 viewsDavillin

Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 20 April on 02:00 - Apr 21 by Glyn1

ScoobyWho: For one thing, it means that if Fulham and Cardiff each lose just one more game, then they can't finish above us in the table even if we lose all of our remaining matches (taking our goal difference into account). (Dav's 3 point swing).

Norwich need a win and 2 draws from their last 3 matches, or 2 wins and a loss, if we again assume that we lose all of our last 3 matches (Dav's 5 point swing).

And of course any point that we get makes it even tougher for all of them,
[Post edited 21 Apr 2014 2:08]


Thanks, Glyn1.

That's as clear as it can get, except to point out that the operative column is in RED.

I don't care. I'm old. I don't have to.
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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 20 April on 23:40 - Apr 21 with 1168 viewsthejack

Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 20 April on 23:29 - Apr 21 by Davillin

You're correct. I've been so challenged by Mr Sumbler's corrections that I've been ignoring everything else - not the least of which are eating, drinking, and using the "facilities."

I'll get the "deleted" part fixed after Saturday's results.

Thanks.


Keep up the good work.
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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 20 April on 00:05 - Apr 22 with 1145 viewsDavillin

Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 20 April on 04:13 - Apr 21 by swanny

can we have a swingometer?


Swanny, you asked for a "swingometer." Here's how to read it.

Each team shows games played with large circles, and games projected with small circles.

Swansea's projection shows no more wins; all other teams show all wins the rest of the season. Those projections are needed in order to calculate mathematical safety.

There are two sets of teams on the same current and projected points, at 39 projected points and at 41 projected points. Use the "legend" at the right to determine who's where.

[Post edited 22 Apr 2014 0:11]

I don't care. I'm old. I don't have to.
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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 21 April on 09:44 - Apr 22 with 1066 viewsswanny

Utterly brilliant - Robert McKenzie/Peter Snow eat your hearts out


I've just had to add to this - I'm so geeky I now have to make up my own spread sheet with algorithms for all possible outcomes so at the push of a button I can instantly see what the projected outcome of any given result might be. That's the rest of my morning planned. Such fun.
[Post edited 22 Apr 2014 9:51]

'Sorry, your password must contain a capital letter, two numbers, a symbol, an inspiring message, a spell, a gang sign, a hieroglyph and the blood of a virgin"

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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 21 April on 14:18 - Apr 22 with 1000 viewsDavillin

Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 21 April on 09:44 - Apr 22 by swanny

Utterly brilliant - Robert McKenzie/Peter Snow eat your hearts out


I've just had to add to this - I'm so geeky I now have to make up my own spread sheet with algorithms for all possible outcomes so at the push of a button I can instantly see what the projected outcome of any given result might be. That's the rest of my morning planned. Such fun.
[Post edited 22 Apr 2014 9:51]


Thanks for your kindness.

p.s. If you make a graphic of your spreadsheet, please don't let me see it. I have a propensity to attacks of vertigo and feel one coming on now just thinking of it!

I don't care. I'm old. I don't have to.
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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 20 April on 14:24 - Apr 22 with 984 views_

Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 20 April on 00:05 - Apr 22 by Davillin

Swanny, you asked for a "swingometer." Here's how to read it.

Each team shows games played with large circles, and games projected with small circles.

Swansea's projection shows no more wins; all other teams show all wins the rest of the season. Those projections are needed in order to calculate mathematical safety.

There are two sets of teams on the same current and projected points, at 39 projected points and at 41 projected points. Use the "legend" at the right to determine who's where.

[Post edited 22 Apr 2014 0:11]


So how do you get from the Elephant and Castle to C0ckfosters?

Hideous thread.

You're all out of time....the past was yours but the future's mine.
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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 21 April on 14:30 - Apr 22 with 984 viewsperchrockjack

Our postman got his thing out and today and reckoned one more win and we re mathematically safe. If scum Sunderland draw Cardiff are fecked as are Sunderland.
I was more concerned about what was in his trolley for us.

Have to say maths/stats bore we silly from the off and as for projections ...sorry

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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 21 April on 14:18 - Apr 23 with 930 viewsMattG

Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 21 April on 09:44 - Apr 22 by swanny

Utterly brilliant - Robert McKenzie/Peter Snow eat your hearts out


I've just had to add to this - I'm so geeky I now have to make up my own spread sheet with algorithms for all possible outcomes so at the push of a button I can instantly see what the projected outcome of any given result might be. That's the rest of my morning planned. Such fun.
[Post edited 22 Apr 2014 9:51]


Don't know if you've done this yet, Swanny......but I have!

It's an Excel spreadsheet and you can download here - https://db.tt/PAvuSZc6

Just put in H (for home win), D (for draw) or A (for away win) in Column D against each match, then click on "Sort Table" to, well, sort the table (note that you will need macros enabled for this bit to work).

It's a bit simplistic in that it assumes a +2 or -2 goal difference for any win / loss but does the job.
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Mathematical Safety - uploaded before Chelsea Home on 18:03 - Apr 23 with 903 viewsHalon

Mathematical Safety - uploaded before Chelsea Home on 23:45 - Apr 12 by Davillin

If it makes no sense to you, that's your fault, you know.

Question: does it make people appear clever when they simply post nothing if they don't understand the subject?


Well it make no sense whatsoever 2 me also.....
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Mathematical Safety - uploaded before Chelsea Home on 18:14 - Apr 23 with 892 viewsDavillin

Mathematical Safety - uploaded before Chelsea Home on 18:03 - Apr 23 by Halon

Well it make no sense whatsoever 2 me also.....


Credit you, at least you admit it without insult.

I repeat: "If it makes no sense to you, that's your fault, you know."

I don't care. I'm old. I don't have to.
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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 21 April on 17:53 - Apr 24 with 823 viewsswanny

Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 21 April on 14:18 - Apr 23 by MattG

Don't know if you've done this yet, Swanny......but I have!

It's an Excel spreadsheet and you can download here - https://db.tt/PAvuSZc6

Just put in H (for home win), D (for draw) or A (for away win) in Column D against each match, then click on "Sort Table" to, well, sort the table (note that you will need macros enabled for this bit to work).

It's a bit simplistic in that it assumes a +2 or -2 goal difference for any win / loss but does the job.


I love spread sheets!

'Sorry, your password must contain a capital letter, two numbers, a symbol, an inspiring message, a spell, a gang sign, a hieroglyph and the blood of a virgin"

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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 21 April on 18:33 - Apr 26 with 760 viewsDavillin

I have updated the Mathematical Safety chart after Aston Villa Home [and after the Norwich game].

Swansea are now mathematically safe.

[Post edited 26 Apr 2014 19:40]

I don't care. I'm old. I don't have to.
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Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 21 April on 19:39 - Apr 26 with 732 viewsDavillin

Mathematical Safety - updated and uploaded on 21 April on 17:53 - Apr 24 by swanny

I love spread sheets!


You rascal, you!

For me, it depends on who's between them with me.

I don't care. I'm old. I don't have to.
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