Saints will be looking to sell at least five players in the summer, but before social media is awash with fans accusations of being a selling club, this is a good thing as we may finally be able to get rid of some of the overpaid players out on loan.
Some Saints supporters froth at the moth with accusations of the club selling it's best players etc, in truth most of those who left between the summer of 2014 and January 2018 when Virgil Van Dijk left for Liverpool the club tried to keep but their hand was forced by the players themselves who made it quite clear that they wanted to move and truthfully who can blame them given the wages they would receive at the so called big clubs plus the chance for glory.
Of course some left in the right way and others showed a lack of finesse and class in the way they did things, I'm not going to drag over old ground you all know which players were which.
But I said back in 2014 this was the only way that the club could compete with the Big Six, we can't match their earning power so we have to try and succeed on our own terms and that means buying in and selling on, we do not have the means to spend on transfers year in year out to buy players without doing this.
I also said in 2014 that this only works as long as we keep replacing players with ones that are or have the potential to be as good and this is a far from easy task and one that offers no guarantees.
We have to control the buying and selling and try and sell when it is right for us, but as I said above that is not always something we can do.
But then again spending big has no guarantees as West Ham are finding out this season as did Fulham last year and indeed Aston Villa this, even the big clubs can spend out but not get the return, Spurs have spent £141 million this season, Man Utd £192 million and Arsenal £130 million all three are not that far ahead of us, likewise Everton who have changed manager yet again something they have done every calendar year since they poached Ronald Koeman from us in 2016, they have spent around £120 million this season alone and they are only a point above us.
This shows that splashing the cash has just as big a risk of failure as our chosen path of living within our means.
That path is not a lack of ambition but actually the opposite, it shows that we have goals that are realistic and achievable, it shows that we are not willing to throw everything at one big shot of glory and that when that is done the owner is content to walk away having satisfied his own ego without a care what happens next to the club he once told the fans was now embedded in his soul etc etc
In football it really isn't better to live one day as a lion and then the rest meekly in the jungle that is the lower leagues.
So we truly have a business model, one that could see us succeed, but if we did fail would not leave us bankrupt, people are very content to remember Rupert Lowe and spit on the pavement, but they barely mention Michael Wilde a man who came in with big promises, signed players on big wages and then turned out not to have a pot to p*ss in at the level he had boasted, that drove the club into administration and nearly oblivion nothing or no one else.
As mentioned earlier the last two seasons have been tough not because we haven't spent money, but because we have spent it badly and sadly we do not have the resources to be able to waste £40 million a season on transfers and then just buy again to replace them.
Hence we have over half a team out on loan, they have a combined transfer value paid of around £90 million and i'm not including Yoshida, Cedric or any of our home grown players like Harrison Reed here.
All of these players have not kicked a ball for Saints this season and some for much of last, the issue is not that we haven't spent money, it's that we have spent it badly and more to the point not been able to sell and recoup some of the transfer money to reinvest.
We haven't been able to sell them because of their wages, but now that can change as most are getting within 1 or 2 years from the end of their contract and we can negotiate.
Players in the main are not that keen on going out of contract as it leaves them with an uncertain future, suffer a long term injury in the final months of your deal and you are in trouble, you could spent a year out and without a club and that also means no physio's etc to aid your recovery.
So now some are within a year of the contract ending they are willing to take a drop in wages and get pay off's to leave. ie if a player is leaving and taking a drop in wages of £30 k a week ie £1.5 million a year, we might be willing to offer him £1 million to go and that will enable us to sell him at £10 million, so any transfer fee received might be reduced by a pay off amount.
Sadly although we have paid £90 million for these players we are highly unlikely to receive the same as we paid for them, s lets take a look at what we could get back in.
Mario Lemina contract ends 2022 likely sale value £10 million
Wesley Hoedt 2022 £10 million
Mo Elyounoussi 2023 £11 million
Fraser Forster 2022 £10 million
Guido Carrillo 2021 £10 million'
That is the big five out on loan and we could rake in around £50 million if we could get them all of the books, but it is not just about transfer fees it is also about wages, of course we will have got some loan fees for them but most will not be about loan fees but reducing the wage bill, at a conservative estimate we are paying £300 k a week in wages for those, that.s £15 million a year and we will be lucky to rake in half of that from the clubs they are loaned out to.
So the job this summer will be to try and shift at least some of them so we have not only money to spend, but the cash to pay wages.
This is why we are not able to sell big, we have £90 million out there in players who are not playing for us and more to the point we are probably still having to pay around £7.5 million in wages for them not to kick a ball.
But there are other players on the books who are not playing big parts anymore and we could now sell, Oriol Romeu is approaching the last year of his deal and we could rake in £10 million for him.
Jannik Vestergaard has two years left and we could get £12 million for him, Sofiane Boufal has a year left and to be blunt 2 assists in the Premier League is not a great return for our money, we will look to sell him this summer and that could net £10 million.
This shows how bloated our squad is, we have 8 players all full internationals on big money who are not either playing for us or are fringe players this season. That's another £7 million in wages.
If my figures are correct we are paying a net figure in wages for 8 players who are not first team regulars of around £15 million or to put in another way over 10% of our total income.
This shows the real story of why Saints have had to be careful with the money, the policy of sell to buy is an enforced one and not completely by choice.
So this summer will be vital, at best we could rake in around £80 million in transfer fees and get £22 million in wages off the books, if we could do that it would take some of the shackles off.
But the likelihood is we will maybe rake in half of that amount, but that is still a start, Ralph Hasenhuttl likes to work with a compact squad and in truth he has the core of a good squad here, the addition of a central defender and a right back will give us what we need, although we might also look at other areas depending on who goes out and how much money comes in.
There has been much negativity in the fan base and it cannot be denied that there has had to be a period of austerity around the club.
But those responsible for those poor buys have gone and a new regime in place and they have to be given the chance to show they can implement the Southampton Way and succeed in doing so.
Whether it's splashing the cash or doing it our way there are no guarantees, but if we can finish in the top 10 this season we will be well on the road to recovery, indeed that would make it 5 top 10 finishes out of the last 7 years and that is a great record for a club of our size.
Sometimes we have to look at ourselves as others see us, they see us as a well run club who produce good players, that's only scratching the surface, but in many respects it is true.
The Southampton Way is what it is not out of choice but necessity, if you want a club that spends £100 million in transfers every year, then this is probably not the club for you, at least not at the moment, there is an armchair waiting for you with a choice of teams on the Sky Go App that will satisfy that craving.
Saints as a club have ambition, but the ambition is to compete on our own terms, make sure that we always live to fight another day and keep fighting season in season out and hopefully keep getting better and stronger so that although we can perhaps never be one of the big six, we can be that club tucked in behind with a shout at success.