x

The Maths Are Simple ! Maintain our Points Per Game Ratio !

If Mark Hughes poor management left us in the lurch, then Ralph Hasenhuttl's has put us back on track and although nothing is guaranteed, Saints now need to just keep their current points per game average intact in the last 8 games.

The difference between Mark Hughes and Ralph Hasenhuttl's management at Saints is chalk and cheese in all departments, indeed it is hard to see Hughes managing in the Premier League again given the last two season's he has had with both Stoke& Saints.

This season the pre Hasenhuttl period spanned 15 games, exactly the same number that the Austrian has currently been in charge for, Hughes total if we include the game at Spur's with the caretaker management produced only 9 points, that is an average of 0.60 per game.

If that average had been continued then we would be sitting on 18 points and would potentially be facing relegation within the next fortnight, although the good news is that it would have been just enough to keep us above Fulham & Huddersfield.

Since the arrival of Ralph we have notched 21 points, more than double than that in the first half of the season's games so far and although that has still kept us in the relegation dogfight due to a series of individual errors, we are in a good position to pull clear.

Although of course nothing is guaranteed, I would hazard a guess that 38 points would be enough to keep us up.

A quick glance at the table tells you two things firstly that over the 30 games so far we have averaged a point a game and secondly if we maintain that ratio then we will hit 38 by the final day.

So the conclusion reached is that although this season has been littered with poor results and poor defending and lack of fit strikers that can score that has cost us dearly in some crucial games, the reality is that we don't need to panic and if we do little different in the final 8 games of the season we should be safe.

But the full table does not give us the full picture, it is all about current form and our ratio is distorted by that awful first 15 games.

Ralph Hasenhuttl has averaged 1.4 points per game so far, if he maintains that, something that is very achievable given our last 8 fixtures, then we will end up on 41-42 points and will be safe long before the end of the season.

A look at current form shows Saints in good standing compared to our fellow relegation strugglers, since Hasenhuttl arrived in the short, medium and long term results.

The short term of the last 6 games is perhaps the table we would least like to look at, we gained only 7 points out of 6, however that still puts us above Burnley in that period, equal with Brighton with only Cardiff above us, but if those ratio's are maintained till the end of the season then we would stay up as would Cardiff and Burnley would go down.

It should be noted though that those 6 games encompass what has been Hasenhuttl's difficult patch with 3 of them against Big Six sides and those last minute mistakes against Burnley & Cardiff.

The form over 8 games is perhaps the one to look at given there are 8 games left, although it should be noted Burnley have only 7, that shows us on 11 points from those games almost bang on Hasenhuttl's average for the season this is the 9th best form over the period and compares with Cardiff with 9 points, Burnley with 8 points and Brighton with only 7.

This could see a different outcome come the end of the season with Cardiff making the drop on 37 points and Burnley staying up on goal difference, although with only 4 goals in it that could change.

But for Saints we would be on 41 points and safe before the final day of the season and that is good news.

So although nothing is guaranteed for any team in the final run in, the good news is that we do not have to do anything different than we have done all season, we know we have some issues in certain positions, but if we can get a point a game as we ave averaged all season under our two managers, then we should be safe, it might be tight but we should be ok.

The better news is that if Ralph Hasenhuttl can keep his own personal points ratio up then we can stay up with time to spare.

The massage is clear as it has been since the Austrian arrive, it is about keeping our calm, concentrating on what we need to do and the fans accepting that things will go against us from time to time but of we all stay behind the team then we can achieve the goal of staying up, something that only 3 months ago looked unlikely.


What to read next:

Leeds and Burnley settle for disappointing draw. A point gained or two points lost?
Those who were looking forward to this game as a top of the table thriller overlooked Burnley’s remarkable record of having conceded only nine goals all season, and the home side’s approach made sure this game petered out as the dampest of squibs.
Burnley Awaydaze
Once again we visit beautiful Burnley, this time with a 8pm kick off on Monday evening, thanks once again to our very good friends at Sky Sports. You’ll find Turf Moor about a mile to the east of Burnley town centre.
Leeds edge past Norwich: A lacklustre game or a tactical masterclass?
It was something of a routine victory over Norwich City last night, with Leeds doing little more than was absolutely necessary, but the three points took us back to the top of the table.
Late Goals Seal the Deal: Leeds Triumph 3-0 Over Sheffield Wednesday
Leeds Kick Off Transfer Window with Loan Moves for Gelhardt and Crew
The current transfer window has been open for two weeks already, but it’s not till today that we’ve heard first pieces of news affecting Leeds United. Joe Gelhardt and Charlie Crew are going on loan to Hull City and Doncaster Rovers respectively, for the rest of the season.
Leeds United Edge Past Harrogate Town with Ramazani goal
We laboured to break down some stubborn resistance from League Two Harrogate Town, but in the end a 59th minute goal from Largie Ramazani was enough to take Leeds through to the fourth round.
Late Drama at Hull: Leeds Held to a Draw After Meslier's Costly Error
Leeds seemed to be cruising to victory after turning the game around in the second half, but this match will be remembered for the error from Meslier that allowed Hull City back into the game, and ultimately cost us another two points on the road.
Hull Awaydaze
This season’s trip to Hull City is on Saturday, with a rare kick off at 3pm. You’ll find the stadium now known as the MKM a mile or so to the west of Hull city centre.
Fatigue or Fortune? Leeds Held to Draw by Resilient Blackburn
It was a disappointing end to the holiday season as Leeds took most of the game to break down a stubborn Blackburn Rovers side, and then allowed our opponents to grab a late equaliser. It won’t be a game that will live long in the memory.
Top of the Table: Leeds finish 2024 at the summit after Stunning Team Goal!
Once again we dominated the possession in an away game, but struggled to make it count. That was before a superb team goal in the 79th minute finally broke through the Derby County defence, and that proved to be enough to ensure that we finish 2024 on top of the Championship table.