Perhaps it’s because I'm not very bright, but I tend to look at life in a rather simple manner. It’s the same with football: not for me the earnest discussions of formations and tactics; my attitude is, just go out and score more goals than the other lot. That being the case, I've been wondering: how many goals do the Rams need this season, and who is going to score them?
Last season the Rams scored 65 goals in League matches. That's not many to finish in the top six, but it can be enough if you defend reasonably well; Hull scored only 61, after all. We didn't defend reasonably well; we conceded 62 goals.
You really need to be looking at a goal difference of at least 10 to finish top six. I'm going to forecast that we will defend a bit bitter than last season, and that 66 goals will be enough to finish in the top six.
So who is going to score them?
I have a simple-minded rule of thumb here: in a 4-4-2 formation, the two striker positions need to combine for 33 goals; the four midfielder's need 22 between them and the four defenders need to manage 11. That's 66.
Can we do it?
Last season, the strikers scored 36 goals: Ward 12, Robinson 8, Sammon 8, Tyson 4, Martin 2 and Jacobs (playing as a striker) 2.
The midfielder's combined for 20: Hendrick 6, Bryson 5, Ben Davies 4, Coutts 3 and Hughes 2.
The defenders managed 9: Keogh 4, Buxton 3, Brayford and O'Connor 1 each but we didn't get the benefit of a single own goal.
So the strikers did their bit last season, but both the midfield and defence came up a little short.
I can see the strikers getting 33 this season. Russell could get 15 or 16; and Martin and Sammon should certainly be able to add 8 or 9 apiece. I also think the defenders can rise to 11 goals between them, especially if Buxton stays fit.
Where I'm bothered is midfield. A playoff-bound team needs more goals from attacking midfielders than Hughes and Coutts scored last season. We might just have to see a bit more from Ben Davies: 8 starts, 15 subs, 4 goals.
Maybe instead of sending on Eustace for the last 15 minutes to try and hold a lead, we need to send on Ben to score another goal. And where does Ward fit in to all of this?
There's no doubt that statistics can be dry. But this is a useful way of trying to work out whether we have what we need to challenge for the top six.
Unless we can raise our game a bit, it’s far from certain.