Its derby day at St Mary's where Southampton Football Club face their traditional rivals Portsmouth, in a game where both clubs have a lot at stake.
After yesterday's results for Reading and Leeds, Saints task is very clear, indeed its no different than it was before yesterday or would have been if both of our promotion rivals had lost, quite simply we have to beat Pompey and take all three points, in truth it doesnt matter whether its 1-0 or 10-0 its the points that matter, however if the goal difference can be put up a few notches then all well and good, West Ham in particular will be hoping that we slip up and thatb they can finish the Easter programme within touching distance of us.
On paper there should be no doubt as to where the points are going, but the problem is, in derby matches its hard to call, Saints were comfortable at Fratton in December before a poor substitution cost us dearly and we dont want a repeat of that today.
For anyone writing about Saints, whether its supporters like myself or journalists working for various media outlets, its hard to predict what Saints line up will be, due to a virtula total black out on injury news, Tadanari Lee for example could be on the verge of a comeback if we check the club website, where the last news a couple of weeks back tells us that, however the Japanese media are reporting he has had an operation and will be out for the rest of the season, so its hard to tell what options Nigel Adkins has for the game, whilst I can see the benefit of this policy to confuse the opposition, it can be counter productive, as the panic over whether Rickie Lambert is fit or not shows.
Thats is of course the big question, how fit is Rickie and what part will he play, even his prescence on the bench would be a welcome sight and of course something that would play on the minds of the Pompey players.
The starting line up to me, assuming that Lambert is fit, looks a fairly simple choice for Adkins
Davis
Butterfield, Hooiveld, Fonte, Fox
Chaplow/Guly, Cork, Schneiderlin, Lallana
Sharp, Lambert
Put bluntly the line up above is as good as we can put out at present and as strong as any in the division, in my mind the only position to be considered is the right of midfield where its a straight choice between Guly and Chaplow, Im tempted to go for Guly, when he played in that position in the early part of the season he was sensational and it offered the right balance for us as a team, Chaplow just seems to not be able to get his game tiogether at the moment, good one week and poor the next, form however is temporary and class is not and both players are more than good enough, whoever is selectted.
The key is to not panic and tinker after last weeks defeat at Blackpool, yes it wasnt good, but the result came from being unable to defend in the centre of the defence, not from other areas of the pitch, we should have identified what went wrong and worked on it in training, a re shuffle in the centre of the park wont improve poor defending.
The bench as always is crucial, not least for the fact, that every week we seem to have to make a change at half time or very shortly after, thats not a good sign of course, but again Nigel Adkins has to ask why certain players are not consistent week in week out and are in fact sometimes so poor they have to come off at the break
Assuming we continue without a keeper on the bench I would hope that it would read.
Martin - We need a defensive option
Hammond - Good player to come on and shore up the game late on
Barnard - With our lack of attacking options due to the rumoured injuries, he will always do a job though
Chaplow - Hard to decide between him and uly on the right, but versatile and a good man to have on the bench
De Ridder - Always likely to cause an impact off the bench, so at home an essential player.
These five give us the right balance for a home game against a bottom three side, options in all areas and more importantly options for whatever the need in the game, whether it be chasing a deficit or shoring up the game and seeing out a win.
The important thing here though is the three points, if this was any other of the bottom four clubs arriving we would be confident of a victory and a good one at that, however its Pompey and with local derby's no one can be sure, however I think we need to look back at DEcember's game at Fratton, back then Pompey had their full side and where playing at home, but we still controlled the game and should have won it, in fact we threw it away with a combination of a poor substitution and poor defending at a crucial moment, Pompey didnt pound our goal a deserve a point by any means.
Now their squad has been decimated, ours has been improved, with respect to their players and i do mean that, they are in a position where they are as Harry would put it, down to the bare bones, its hard to motivate them to any great degree, yes they can get up a head of steam, but if you can get ahead then their heads go down and they can be crushed as Burnley proved last weekend and that is our task today, weather their early bluster, get a grip on the game, score and then knock the stuffing out of them.
I am not underestimating Pompey here or being complacent, but their situation is how it is, since the start of February when their situation blew up they have played 13 games, they have won only two of them, drawn three and lost eight, bringing a total of only 9 points and with the loss of Thorne one of their loanees now out for the rest of the season and back at his parent club, their squad is even thinner.
So the situation is that Saints have to go out and put the Skates to the sword, if we do and rack up another win then it will be a big blow to West Ham who despite their protestations that they wont catch us, secretly harbour hopes they will, we need to make sure we dont get these hopes up over the Easter weekend.