This is it, the "NO Excuses" game, Nigel Adkins has already stated that apart from two players he has his full squad to pick from, its all down to that team selection and tactics.
A few months ago I always used to mention must win games, quite a few people seemed to take umbrage with me over this, they didnt seem to grasp my point that every next game is a must win game and that the plan should be to win the games needed to get promotion as quickly as possible, back in November we had a great opportunity, a run of games against lower table sides and with 29 games left to play, needing only to win about 14 of them to virtually guarantee promotion, here we sit 12 games later and we havent put too many points on the board, ideally we should be at least 24 points better off, but its only 13, so we have to look forward not back.
Luckily for us most of the other sides havent fared too much better, so we start in second place at the beginning of this weekend, what we have to do hasnt changed drastically in that we still need to be looking at that two point per game average that I harp on about so much, iof we do so then we will have 84 points, will that be enough to go up automatically, very possibly but I wouldnt put all my money on it.
What has changed drastically though is the top six, West Ham have overtaken us, are four points ahead now and will be looking to increase that gap by the end of our trip there on Tuesday night, but perhaps the bigger threat comes from Birmingham City, this was why I was forever saying that every game is a must win, they are now only two points behind us and coming up fast, their period of outstanding form is now, not like ourselves three months ago and six months ago and that is the main worry, their goal difference is identical and perhaps more worrying, they dony concede many goals, they are tight at the back and we arent, our last 10 games have produced 10 points, theirs 20, exactly that two points per game I am always talking about.
So for the visit of Burnley we have to put the past behind us and look forward, we have to win this game and then look to the next must win game , we just have to start winning games and putting winning runs together, we havent won two games in a row since we beat Brighton back in November that isnt good enough.
So the time for excuses to stop is now, the time for talking about people grabbing oars is over, I want our players to grab a through ball in the box and put it in the back of the net, I want fine actions not fine words.
Nigel Adkins has a tough task this weekend, being blunt he has a big squad, but in the main those that have come in and made it bigger since last summer are not any better than what we already have, none of them have really grabbed the supporters by the throat and put themselves forward as a player of the season candidate and its time a few of them did, Nigel's job now is to be brave and make the right decisions.
At the back he probably doesnt have much choice, one fit right back, two fit centre halves and a choice between Harding and Fox, which in fairness shouldnt be too difficult.
In midfield he really has to get the balance right and he has to be tough, Lallana is nailed on, but the other three positions could be taken up by anyone of a number of players, the big question is does he stick with Cork & Schneiderlin in the centre and then decide between Pucheon and Chaplow on the right, or does he go for what I believe might be the best way to set it out, personally I would start Puncheon on the right, I would play Chaplow in the centre, as what we dont have their in the other three is a player that can get himself into the box, then its anyones guess whether you put Cork or Schneiderlin with Chappers, that emphasises my point about how little quality our signings have added to the squad, some of them have been good like Cork, but not really that much better than what we have.
Up front it should be a complete no brainer, Lambert & Billy Sharp, if it isnt, you have to wonder whats going on at St Mary's.
omy line up would be
Davis
Richardson, Fonte, Martin, Fox
Puncheon, Cork, Chaplow, Lallana
Lambert, Sharp.
The subs bench is crucial, Burnley are a side that go for it on the road, they either win or lose, they have yet to draw, so we have to go for the jugular, so I would have
Bialkowski, Lee, Schneiderlin, Guly, Reeves
That has good attacking options along with players that can adapt, Guly can play up front or in midfield and Reeves can play midfield or full back, it has options.
If we do that then we have possibly just about our best starting line up (Hooiveld apart) and a strong attacking bench for a home game, the bench is crucial in that it offers options, both is we need to close out the game or go for it, its hard on the likes of De Ridder, Harding, Connolly, Holmes etc not even to get on it, but we have to be hard now, there is no place for sentiment.
As Mentioned Burnley are a good away side, they have won 8 on the road and lost 6 and havent drawn one yet, the 19 goals for and 18 against say one thing, this is a side prepared to go for it, so it should be just the type of side we like toplay down here, it also suggests a Jeckyl & Hyde team who you are never quite sure which one will turn out on any given day.
Enough for now, what we need to do is clear, we have to win, anything less and we will surely drop out of the automatic promotion spots and at this stage of the season that is not a good thing.