Most Leeds fans accept that the seventh place we achieved last season was acceptable in the first season after getting out of League One, but this time we will expect a serious challenge for promotion back to the Premier League. But who will be our main rivals in the race for the top flight? Are Birmingham City or West Ham United likely to go straight back up, or are last season’s nearly men such as Reading and Nottingham Forest more likely to last the pace?
Our first problem will be the ‘parachute payments’ which will be made to our promotion rivals who have recently been relegated from the top flight. These payments are meant to soften the blow for clubs dropping out of the Premier League, but they distort the promotion race by giving these clubs a massive advantage over those who have been in the Football League for a while longer. The parachute payments are the reason why there have been so many yo-yo clubs since the Premier League began, with the likes of West Brom and Newcastle able to out-spend their rivals and go straight back up.
Under the latest Premier League TV deal, the clubs relegated from the top flight receive £16 million in each of the first two seasons, and then £8 million in each of the two seasons after that, unless of course they have already been promoted back to the Premier League in the meantime. But to take full advantage, the clubs receiving parachute payments need to be in reasonable financial shape as the new season starts, otherwise the extra money will just be swallowed up by paying off debts, rather than strengthening their squads. So how are the three clubs relegated last season going to fare in 2011/2?
West Ham have an estimated £80 million debt hanging over them, and they also have to save up for the cost of redeveloping the Olympic stadium the season after next. So they urgently need to reduce their wage bill by selling off their remaining star players, such as Scott Parker and Rob Green. Although new boss Sam Allardyce will introduce a style of football that might be suited to the Championship, they will be unlikely to achieve automatic promotion.
Birmingham City are similarly handicapped by large debts, and a year ago their accounts contained warnings about their ability to stay in business, so the Premier League had to ask for that they have the funds to complete the season. A year later, their situation will have been worsened even further by relegation from the Premiership, and they have already released a few of their highest earning players to try to stay afloat. This has probably prompted the resignation of Alex McLeish, and with his departure it’s hard to see them mounting a promotion challenge.
Which brings us to Blackpool. They are in much better financial shape than the other two, but they didn’t have such a strong squad to start with. It’s virtually certain that Charlie Adam will have moved on before the season starts, and I don’t think the remaining players will be able to do any better than reaching the play-offs, at best.
But what of the three clubs relegated from the Premiership 12 months earlier, who will also be receiving £16 million each in parachute payments? At the start of last season Portsmouth and Hull were handicapped by massive financial problems, and Burnley by having Brian Laws as manager. But now this trio should be in better shape, with Eddie Howe now in charge at Turf Moor, and the other two having been saved from extinction by new owners.
Portsmouth have probably got too much to do to improve a squad that only managed to finish 16th last season, but Burnley and Hull both managed to challenge for play-off places late in the season, and I expect these two clubs to be towards the top end of the table in the new season.
At least next season there won’t be anyone in the QPR role of a long-established Championship club who can compile an expensive squad through the generosity of very wealthy owners. Of the clubs to have been in this division for more than two years Reading may be the best placed for promotion, as they’re not saddled with large debts and they have a squad who reached the play-off final last season.
It’s difficult to know what to expect from the other play-off losers Cardiff and Nottingham Forest, with the bluebirds still to confirm their new manager, and Forest deciding to employ Steve McLaren, whose managerial record is mixed to say the least. Both will probably be good enough to make the top six once again. Of the clubs who finished further down the table, many will expect Leicester to make an impact under Sven’s management, but some of their fans have their doubts as to whether his heart is really in the job. He made a good start when he took over last season, but their form tailed off once they were threatening to make the play-offs, and they may do no better this time.
Finally, I shouldn’t forget the three sides coming into the Championship from League One. Brighton should we well clear of relegation with the impetus from opening their new stadium, but I think that Peterborough could struggle once again. Southampton are the only one of the trio who have the resources to improve their squad for a possible second successive promotion, and they might have hopes of being next season’s Norwich.
All in all, I can see it being a very tight race for promotion next season, with quite a few clubs in contention, and no clear favourites to run away with the division. I think that Leeds should stand a good a chance as anyone, but having lost two key players already this summer and with Bates unwilling to put his hand in his pocket, a lot will depend on how Simon Grayson gets on with recruiting new players at the bargain basement end of the market.