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Great site here for tracking projections and polling for the Presidential, House and Senate elections over the next month. A wealth of info on each state in each race.
US Elections 2016 on 06:04 - Oct 20 by FredManRave
To my utter surprise I listened to some of the debate but only caught the last 15 minutes so I actually missed the part that will apparently lead tomorrow's headlines and that's Trumps refusal to commit to accepting the result assuming he doesn't win.
Can somebody please explain what that actually means abd the consequences for the result and him.
Thanks.
Who knows, Fred? At this stage it's impossible to rationalise Trump. At times last night he was a childish, incoherent, mud-slinging fool but I'd catch myself thinking "hmmm...he's better than at the last debate".
Any candidate in history that suggested that he might refuse to accept a democratic result would be finished instantly. The problem with Trump, however, is that he's made the outrageous appear commonplace so that last night's statement may well be met with a shrug by many. so, the consequences for him may be minimal.
The consequences for the result is that last night in the immediate aftermath there were U.S. commentators speculating about Trump supporters resorting to violence should Clinton win. I suppose that's entirely possible.
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
US Elections 2016 on 11:15 - Oct 20 by BrianMcCarthy
Who knows, Fred? At this stage it's impossible to rationalise Trump. At times last night he was a childish, incoherent, mud-slinging fool but I'd catch myself thinking "hmmm...he's better than at the last debate".
Any candidate in history that suggested that he might refuse to accept a democratic result would be finished instantly. The problem with Trump, however, is that he's made the outrageous appear commonplace so that last night's statement may well be met with a shrug by many. so, the consequences for him may be minimal.
The consequences for the result is that last night in the immediate aftermath there were U.S. commentators speculating about Trump supporters resorting to violence should Clinton win. I suppose that's entirely possible.
1. Declining systems produce declining politicians. Hence Trump and Hillary. Trump has proved particularly successful at degrading political discussion.
2. Despite the isolationist rhetoric, isolationism is not an option for the US (or Britain). The US is heavily dependent on foreign investment, but more importantly the US is the policeman and the guarantor of world capitalism with hundreds of bases all over the globe (officially over 800). If anything the US will be tempted try to offset its economic decline by militarising conflicts.
3. There is no point in simply denouncing Trump supporters. In fact such an approach would be disastrous as it precludes any possibility of communicating with them and drawing them away from Trump. the only way Trump supporters can be peeled away from Trump is to tackle his main proposition - that racism and nationalism are in the interest of the working class.
4. Most people know that Clinton is a corporate tool intent on helping the system to stagger on at any price. I have concentrated my fire on Trump because he promises all things to all men and that includes presenting himself as a defender of working class interests.
Air hostess clique
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US Elections 2016 on 13:58 - Nov 4 with 3369 views
1. Declining systems produce declining politicians. Hence Trump and Hillary. Trump has proved particularly successful at degrading political discussion.
2. Despite the isolationist rhetoric, isolationism is not an option for the US (or Britain). The US is heavily dependent on foreign investment, but more importantly the US is the policeman and the guarantor of world capitalism with hundreds of bases all over the globe (officially over 800). If anything the US will be tempted try to offset its economic decline by militarising conflicts.
3. There is no point in simply denouncing Trump supporters. In fact such an approach would be disastrous as it precludes any possibility of communicating with them and drawing them away from Trump. the only way Trump supporters can be peeled away from Trump is to tackle his main proposition - that racism and nationalism are in the interest of the working class.
4. Most people know that Clinton is a corporate tool intent on helping the system to stagger on at any price. I have concentrated my fire on Trump because he promises all things to all men and that includes presenting himself as a defender of working class interests.
There are so many comparisons to be drawn between the US election and the EU referendum. For starters Trump and Brexit are imo both outcomes of the failing neoliberal project. And in both cases, both options on offer (EU In / Out, Trump / Clinton) are terrible.
The worst of two bad options (imo) in both cases (Trump and Brexit) both represent a protest vote, tapping into a popular-racism. Unfortunately in both cases the alternative is very much a business-as-usual vote for a failing establishment, and in the case of Clinton a truly loathd representative of the political class. I honestly think Trump could win this, and i'll be eating my scorn right at the start of this thread. For one thing things that should destroy a normal candidate simply don't seem to affect his popularity. It just doesn't matter. Trump -- like Brexit -- inspires an almost religious fanaticism. You see some of that with Corbyn supporters too for that matter. I guess it's a symptom of failing systems and times of crisis.
Incidentally, those Clinton campaign emails released by Wikileaks last week show that part of the campaign strategy was to amplify the voice of the Republican fringe candidates in the media -- to present them as representative of the Republicans and to be taken seriously -- in an attempt to drag the Republicans to the right and discredit them in the eyes of the electorate. A strategy that could truly end up haunting the US.
A lot of that will be price driven though, no value on Hillary, and good opportunity to play the price as Trump drifts and will naturally contract when he wins some states.
I did it during the London Mayor. Just before polls closed Goldsmith had drifted on the exchange to 17, which was farcical. Backed it, price came into 5 after the polls closed and laid it off for a nice little earner
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US Elections 2016 on 13:13 - Nov 8 with 3193 views
I am in the US at the moment (NY). Possibly one of the strangest times I have spent here (and I spent a great deal of time in the US). Whilst most commentators in the US will not publicly say it, there is not enough white males in the US to vote Trump in - he will lose. However, the fallout in this country will be huge - the second amendment has never been more frightening.
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US Elections 2016 on 13:40 - Nov 8 with 3139 views
Back to lay Trump? I'm not sure that i could face losing money on this pillock. The maths of the Brexit referendum made me thing that we could go out, with the 17-18% favouring UKIP leaving the remainers to find 51% of the other 83% - a tough job. Same goes in the US - if 50% of the electorate can't entertain you at all then how can you possibly win? I think that I might try to find a Clinton landslide sort of bet if i have one at all.
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US Elections 2016 on 13:42 - Nov 8 with 3124 views
I am in the US at the moment (NY). Possibly one of the strangest times I have spent here (and I spent a great deal of time in the US). Whilst most commentators in the US will not publicly say it, there is not enough white males in the US to vote Trump in - he will lose. However, the fallout in this country will be huge - the second amendment has never been more frightening.
1
US Elections 2016 on 13:43 - Nov 8 with 3121 views
Back to lay Trump? I'm not sure that i could face losing money on this pillock. The maths of the Brexit referendum made me thing that we could go out, with the 17-18% favouring UKIP leaving the remainers to find 51% of the other 83% - a tough job. Same goes in the US - if 50% of the electorate can't entertain you at all then how can you possibly win? I think that I might try to find a Clinton landslide sort of bet if i have one at all.
Not saying I would do it, but it's certainly how people play the exchanges, which a lot of bookies feed into their fixed prices.
The FT had a good predictor tool which allows you to allocate the swing states to either candidate. Even following the polling in each state and giving both Florida and NC to Trump, Clinton still snuck 272. Trump has a slight lead in Florida poll this morning, but record turn out in Hispanic voters in Florida so far today has surely got to be bad news for him.
I saw Clinton 301-329 for 3/1 this morning. Had a slice of that (FYI I'm the smallest stakes punter going, this is not appendage swinging at all!)
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US Elections 2016 on 13:56 - Nov 8 with 2605 views
Not saying I would do it, but it's certainly how people play the exchanges, which a lot of bookies feed into their fixed prices.
The FT had a good predictor tool which allows you to allocate the swing states to either candidate. Even following the polling in each state and giving both Florida and NC to Trump, Clinton still snuck 272. Trump has a slight lead in Florida poll this morning, but record turn out in Hispanic voters in Florida so far today has surely got to be bad news for him.
I saw Clinton 301-329 for 3/1 this morning. Had a slice of that (FYI I'm the smallest stakes punter going, this is not appendage swinging at all!)
Yeah that looks a fair bet, but I'm not American, I've only been there once and i don't really know any either. They seem to be quite a bit mad about these things so maybe enough hate Clinton to stop her getting a landslide. I don't think that he can win, but I'm not sure beyond that. It's too 'blind' to bet really. I wouldn't bet much either.
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US Elections 2016 on 14:10 - Nov 8 with 2564 views
Yeah that looks a fair bet, but I'm not American, I've only been there once and i don't really know any either. They seem to be quite a bit mad about these things so maybe enough hate Clinton to stop her getting a landslide. I don't think that he can win, but I'm not sure beyond that. It's too 'blind' to bet really. I wouldn't bet much either.
Also on your point of the EU referendum vote - it reminded me of something that should really have alerted us to the polls being out of sync. Within the statistical margin of error, one of the final polls had 3% of UKIP voters voting remain!
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US Elections 2016 on 14:32 - Nov 8 with 2535 views
I know at least a dozen Trump supporters personally who do not talk on social media about the election for fear of losing friends. They will quietly cast their vote and move on. I know the sample is small, but I think this indicates that there are more "quiet" Trump supporters than people think...I don't think he'll win. I wish we could have a primary do-over...
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US Elections 2016 on 14:40 - Nov 8 with 2508 views
Honestly, this election will be very close and the media, Dems, and Reps, all know it. I know the rest of the world only gets the liberal slanted news for some reason, but there are many other datapoints that you don't see. The media really does a disservice by only picking wacko Trump supporters to show, when there are a lot of well educated people for him (well actually against Hilary). They minimize her corruption but play up his faults. I think this will go down to the wire. States like FL, NC, NH, PA, NV, AZ could go either way, and even places like Michigan are close.
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