A ‘new manager bounce’ of no wins from four games has QPR in a very familiar position heading into what should be a banker win with Huddersfield on Monday afternoon.
Championship >>> Monday December 28, 2015 >>> Kick Off 15.00 >>> Weather — bright and sunny >>> Loftus Road, London, W12
Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink has started with three draws and a defeat from his four games in charge so far. QPR’s ‘new manager bounce’ once again more of a dull thud following a fall from a short height.
That’s no great surprise, no reflection on his abilities or what he’ll go on to achieve as a manager, and no slight on Les Ferdinand and Lee Hoos for appointing him. ‘New manager bounce’ comes when the previous manager was the main problem — or, in the case of Chelsea, perceived as the main problem by a power-crazed dressing room chock-full of egos who he’s offended.
There is never any ‘new manager bounce’ at QPR under the current ownership. Chris Ramsey lost five of his first six matches, Harry Redknapp only won one of his first seven, Mark Hughes won one of his first eight in the league, now Hasselbaink has won none of his first four. That would strongly indicate the manager who’s just departed wasn’t the main problem. It may suit the people who hated Chris Ramsey, Harry Redknapp (hand up) or Mark Hughes to pretend it’s all down to one individual, and if only they’re removed everything will be alright again, but it’s simply not the case. Those people all had faults, boy did they have faults, but hiring them made little difference, and firing them even less.
I’m going to take this opportunity — because no doubt if we thrash a limited Huddersfield team, operating on a fraction of our budget and having spent last summer flogging their four best players, everything will be rosy in the garden again just as it was after a decent showing against Brighton — to look at three criteria you could assess QPR under because I think it’s a useful exercise in assessing whether expectations are too high and where we’re going wrong in meeting those expectations.
QPR are, actually, on certain criteria, parring the course. Historic league position, average gate and income would all suggest the club should be somewhere around the 25-35 mark in the Football League ladder, and that’s exactly where we’ve been kicking around for a couple of months now. I’m calling that criteria number one.
In other categories, we’re actually outperforming where we should be. On the size of the stadium, the quality of the training ground, the overall infrastructure of the club and the youth set up we’re probably in the region 60 on the ladder — League One, and not high League One at that. Infrastructure is number two.
But in the expenditure category — wages (particularly wages), transfer fees, agent fees, signing on fees, basically any kind of money we can shovel into the pockets of players and their representatives — we’ve been around eight in the country in recent years and are probably somewhere around 15 now. That’s three.
Wages do, usually, more than any other indicator, point to performance on the field. But QPR have been the anomaly on the graph for a while, because when you’re so low in One and Two the temptation is to cover for it with Three, and when you cover for it with Three you attract players looking for Three rather than One and Two. Wayne Routledge goes to Swansea while you sign Shaun Wright-Phillips.
Things we probably should deduce from this — and by ‘we’ I mean the people running the club and those who have dedicated big parts of their lives to supporting it — are as follows…
- This season is actually a standard QPR season. It’s not something to sack managers about, it’s not something to panic about, it’s not something to be angry about, it’s unexceptional and it’s where we should be — based on One. That it doesn’t do Air Asia and Tune any good for their marketing vehicle to be playing Huddersfield rather than Arsenal should be completely irrelevant. That our financial position necessitates a return to the Premier League should, in actual fact, warn us away from returning too quickly, as that financial situation was created almost entirely while we were a Premier League club.
- Three has been the case for several years (we've spent a quarter of a billion pounds since Tony Fernandes arrived) and it's brought no improvement whatsoever in Two and only very temporary improvements in One which have only exacerbated Three.
- Therefore, perhaps we should focus more of that cash from Three on Two, rather than trying to artificially, unsustainably improve One. We may well find that if we do that then we'll have a better base from which to punch above One. Clubs like Swansea, Norwich, Leicester are finding/have found that if you deal with Two and get it right, One follows almost automatically. And even if One doesn’t follow, you have something long lasting, an asset for the club, as opposed to a Joey Barton.
What ‘we’ actually deduce from this is...
- Two is completely irrelevant, fuck Two.
- We should sign some more players. If we had better strikers/full backs/midfielders/goalkeepers we'd be doing so much better. This is basically down to Perch/Green/Konchesky/Henry/Polter/Bosingwa/Cesar/Granero/Gabbidon and once they've been hounded out and replaced we'll be fine. Continue with Three, this time we'll get it right.
- If that doesn't work (again) then it's definitely, definitely the manager's fault and if only we had this other manager we'd be doing so much better. Or it's the Director of Football’s fault, who's only been here for 12 months of the five years this nonsense has been going on. Anyway, it's definitely one person's fault, and if only they're replaced with another person we'll be fine.
There are still, after everything that’s gone on, talk and calls to be spending more in January to correct the obvious problems with the team. QPR have signed 50 players on permanent deals since Tune bought the club, of which 29 are no longer with the club and the majority of the 21 who are don’t play. Of the 29 who have left, only two — Loic Remy, Danny Simpson — left for more than they arrived.
That the money Tony Fernandes and the investors have spent on QPR since taking it over has almost entirely been written off is to their immense credit - more than most football club owners do, more than Chris Wright did — but how can anybody in their right mind be advocating we go out and buy some more footballers? Despite all of it, the team still has chronic problems. We’ve shown no ability to correct our problems, or even improve our team on a very short term level, in the transfer market. Of those 50, which ones have genuinely, actually, noticeably improved us, even medium term? Austin and…
We are once again choosing names over ability — Green over Smithies, Fer over Luongo — and giving game-time to clapped out old pros over younger players who would be cheaper, more effective and serve the club for longer and with more passion — Sandro over Gladwin.
There are already message board posts stating that Hasselbaink was a poor appointment, that we should have kept Neil Warnock. That despite Warnock telling the club he didn’t want the job, despite Warnock telling the club he could only give them eight weeks, despite Warnock presiding over four dire matches with no striker on the field in which one win was secured against a chronically out of form Leeds team and another thanks to a goalkeeping mistake that would have disgraced an under 8s game, despite the constant chop and change of manager yielding absolutely no improvement or change whatsoever. There are still some among the ‘we’ who think we’re a manager away from solving all of this. Watch Stoke City, watch them demolish Man City and Man Utd, watch the football they play, watch the players they have, and remember that manager couldn’t win a bloody match at QPR.
This team is palpably not good enough to be promoted. The big hitters we were so excited about keeping are either not as good as people made out — Green, Fer — suffering prolonged injury problems — Sandro, Fer, Austin — or badly out of form — Green, Fer, Phillips. What should be happening now is a focus on the balance sheet, because QPR’s future hopes won’t be helped at all by breaching this season’s FFP regulations, which we surely are with these sort of players hanging around, and a focus on building a team for several years hence, when we may well be banned from signing players. We’re exacerbating the situation by pushing for promotion, because we’ll likely fail while breaching FFP again, and if we do succeed we’ll go up and blow all the money again.
When Wolves were relegated to League One, people looked at the players they had and after they’d stopped wondering how it happened they started tipping them for an immediate promotion because how could Roger Johnson, Jamie O’Hara, Kevin Doyle, Karl Henry etc fail at that level having kept them in the Premier League for two seasons just a short time before? Kenny Jackett ostracised all of them, made them train with the kids until they left. Not only because they’d failed (two relegations), but also because you can’t have £40k a week veterans knocking about the place marking time when you’re trying to build a new team. QPR are not only letting their equivalents mark time here, they’re continually picking them ahead of the likes of Gladwin, Harriman, Luongo (particularly fucking Luongo) and Smithies. It’s not only pissing off players who should be the future of the club and players who would give more for the club if picked, it’s sending out a message to all other players we might like to buy that for all the promises of new era this, different way of doing things that, QPR are still the same career graveyard they have been for five years. And we’re still folding pathetically to last minute goals in games we’re more than good enough to win. It’s still not getting results.
Put the goal posts back where they allegedly were in the summer. Start shaking hands with the likes of Sandro, Fer, Green and others and paying for their flights to Turkey, or wherever will take them. Start preparing for the next FFP battle, as well as the one we already have on our plate, rather than chasing some pipe dream that firstly this team is good enough for promotion, secondly it would do anything other than finish dead last just as it did last time if that was achieved, and thirdly we’d do anything other than create more financial mess splashing the money about again if we did get back. A QPR team of Smithies; Harriman, Onuoha, Hall, Robinson (when fit); Faurlin, Gladwin; Phillips, Luongo, Chery; Austin would absolutely not be fourteenth in the Championship and would be a good deal cheaper, more committed and fitter.
Anyway, Merry Christmas. I’m a miserable git, I mouth off a lot, I’m usually wrong, I’m a bit marmite these days which has been difficult to get used to, but I’m still here after ten years. I still bloody love the club, and I’ll be tumbling off down the aisle with the worst of them tomorrow when Leroy Fer whops in the fourth goal to herald the start of Jimmy’s grand revolution.
You R’s.
Links >>> Francis’ non-league wonders — History >>> Malone’s first QPR game — Referee
Jermaine Darlington celebrates his first QPR goal after arriving from non-league Aylesbury, as cash-strapped QPR’s band of misfits hammer the First Division’s big spenders Huddersfield on the opening day of the 1999/00 campaign. Chris Kiwomya and Gavin Peacock were also on target in a 3-1 win.
Team News: QPR are likely to still be without Charlie Austin, James Perch and Jamie Mackie for this one. A second game in 48 hours may see the likes of Massimo Luongo, Tjarron Chery, Sandro and Jay Emmanuel-Thomas pushing for starts after taking bench spots at Ipswich on Boxing Day.
Dean Whitehead (running in the 2.40 at Leopardstown) and Philip Billing (in laws over for Christmas) are ruled out while Jonathan Hogg and Emyr Huws only made their comebacks from injury on Saturday and may not be up to two matches in three days.
Elsewhere: Another full round of Championship action spaced over two afternoons and evening here. Tarquin and Rupert hiding the silver cutlery and bringing out the plastic beakers for the visit of Rotherham tomorrow night has the look of a relegation six pointer, but you fear it’s already gone beyond that stage for Barings Bank who welcome the Mad Chicken Farmers for a derby match in the first game on Monday.
Boro and the Sheffield Owls are two of the form teams in the division and will look to further their respective promotion pushes against each other on Monday evening. There’s a fair amount of drek in between, notably Brum v Franchise and Charlton v Wolves which both promise to be absolutely hideous. Big Spending Burnley should have a gimme against the Wurzels in this week’s game between two teams beginning with B, while Waitrose welcome Middlesex’s Finest and Tigers Tigers Rah Rah Rah visit Preston.
On the Tuesday, Brighton v Ipswich looks a decent game, the Red Dragons against the Trees less so, but none of that really matters because the Champions of Europe are playing — at home to the Sheep — so obviously that’s the live Sky match.
Referee: Despite being on the Football League list since 2010, this is Brendan Malone’s first QPR game. He mostly officiates in the bottom two divisions, and this is only his third Championship appointment of the season so far, but he has already been in charge of Huddersfield for their 2-2 draw at Reading in November. For his stats, please click here.
QPR: Rangers’ win at Huddersfield in August made it four wins out of seven in all competitions, with two of the other games drawn, and lifted the R’s to fourth. Since then they’ve won only four more in eighteen matches and slipped to fourteenth following the Leeds and Forest game on Sunday evening. Jimmy Floyd hasselbaink has drawn three and lost one of his four in charge. Rangers are still pretty decent at home though, with only Nottingham Forest winning here so far — of the other ten league fixtures on this ground there have been four home wins and six draws, including the last two.
Huddersfield: The Terriers have won at Birmingham and Charlton this season but drawn three and lost six of the other nine away matches including a 4-2 defeat at Brentford on their last trip just before Christmas. Their form has improved of late though — three of the six wins they’ve achieved all season have come in their last six matches, although if the WLWLW pattern continues they’ll be beaten here on a ground where they haven’t won in six attempts since an FA Cup win in 1999. That is their only win at Loftus Road in 14 visits. Huddersfield have only scored 11 goals away from home this season, but have registered in each of their last five road trips — winning once.
Predictions: Reigning Prediction League champion isawqpratwhitecity tells us…
"This game might finally give Jimmy the chance to crack that bubbly he's had on ice. Apart from a win at Birmingham, Huddersfield's recent form hasn't been particularly troubling to opponents. I'm assuming Austin still won't be fit, which is a worry as I lament our recent lack of threat. So, more in hope than expectation..."
Jim’s Prediction: QPR 2-1 Hudersfield. Scorer: Jay Emmanuel-Thomas
LFW’s Prediction: QPR 1-0 Huddersfield. Scorer: Matt Phillips
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