After the very welcome 3 points in the vital relegation clash at Aston Villa, Saints are starting to go into the final bend and hit the home straight.
Of course how many points that will be needed to avoid relegation is not an exact science, indeed on many occasions, some involving us its gone to the final minute of the final day of the season to decide the fate of the final relegation places and in those games a last minute goal has changed that final number, however all clubs should look at a notional target and although most will select 40 points as the stay up point, the truth of the matter is that usually 38 is enough.
This being the case then Saints could need as little as four wins to stay up out of the 17 games remaining, that doesnt sound a lot, but given that you have to go up to West Ham in 11th to find a team that has won over six games so far and it puts things into perspective.
Indeed of the clubs below or around us, QPR have won only two, Reading three, Villa four, Wigan, Newcaste and Ourselves five, Sunderland, ulham & Norwich six, so the indications are that five wins would almost certainly see us safe, but the likelihood is that four will be enough when added to another five draws and assuming eight defeats,
If you look at the clubs below us then its good reading, assuming these safety margins, QPR need to win seven and draw three of their remaining sixteen games thats a big big ask, for instance if they were to win six, they would still need another six draws, can you see them only losing four times, Reading need six wins minimum and Villa & Wigan five, their task isnt far from ours but that extra win might be beyond them.
What we need now is one good winning run a two match winning streak would send us rocketing away from the relegation zone, sadly however I cant see that happening for a little while yet due to the fixture list, the trip to Newcastle at the end of February might be our first opportunity, if we won there and beat QPR at home the following week then that could well see us very close to the finishing line.
The task now is a point a game, exactly what we have achieved so far, in the next run of six games culminating in that trip to Newcastle we have three toughies, ideally assuming that we lose at Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford & at home to Man City we will get four points from the visit of Everton & Wigan and then that would set us up for a dash to the finishing line, but what will really give us an edge is if we can take the odd point from one of the top clubs, we did so against Arsenal but that remains the only point we have taken from a club in the top eight and that is worrying.
Our five wins so far have all come from clubs below us and thats another worry given that we have exactly four games left against them, three of those away from home, this is pointing to the fact that we do need to strengthen in the transfer window and fast and if we do so we will need to pick up wins against the clubs above us, do so and we will stay up with ease, fail to do so and it will be tight.
But the fact is our task is now extemely doable, we just need to keep focussed and make sure that our superior goal difference on most of our rivals isnt compromised on those two tough away trips to Chelsea and man Utd and indeed the home game to Man City, one plus point is that after those games vitually every game is winnable.