| Theresa May 21:20 - Jun 10 with 26792 views | easthertsr |
Has there ever been a poorer election campaign? I'm trying to think of a more incompetent, awful, pitiful effort. A year of saying that you won't call an early election. Then you do after a budget u turn. Then you do another u turn in the middle of the campaign. All the while you refuse to take part in the televised debate. I'm trying to think of a reason why this talentless woman should be prime minister but I've run out of any excuse! |  | | |  |
| Theresa May on 22:43 - Jun 17 with 3327 views | Phildo |
| Theresa May on 21:52 - Jun 17 by BucksRanger |
Is this George Bridges yet another politician who can't do basic maths?
Yearly estimated GDP = USD $2.729 trillion according to Wikipedia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom
10% percent reduction over 10 years (Bridges worst case scenario) $272.9 billion.
1% per year (approx - can't be bothered with compounding) $27.29 billion
Exchange rate $1.28 = £21.3 billion.
UK yearly memberhip fee to EU club = £17.8 billion and with rebate £12.9 billion according to Daily Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/how-much-do-we-spend-on-the-eu-and-what-else-c
Total worst case loss to UK £21.3 - £12. 9 billion = £8.4 billion
£8.4 billion / 66 million UK population = £127 per person or around £10 a month. And that's his worst case scenario.
His 4% reduction over 10 year scenario might be interesting but I haven't got the willpower to work that out right now but looks as though it might be positive for the UK overall.
Of course I'm just a simple pensioner and might have got my figures wrong so please feel free to double check them. [Post edited 17 Jun 2017 21:56]
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But you GDP is supposed to grow each year and compound on that growth- this scenario sees the economy shrinking
Anyway just recounting something I was told |  | | |
| Theresa May on 22:57 - Jun 17 with 3306 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
While there is some wobbling going on, that's to be expected, you have to ask yourself why the EU wants us to stay and only paints a black picture for us
They know fully well it's going to be bad for them, there is a big game of bluff going on. from both sides. |  |
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| Theresa May on 23:00 - Jun 17 with 3301 views | BucksRanger |
And maybe it will grow. We cannot possibly know whether it will or not. I'd love to see the calculations behind Bridges best and worst case scenarios because I suspect there are figures in that document he has that might just be a little bit dubious. Anyway, it looks as though the UK can take a 6% hit on GDP over the next ten years and still be no worse off than it is today once we stop handing over £12.9 billion a year to the EU. |  | | |
| Theresa May on 23:08 - Jun 17 with 3287 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
| Theresa May on 23:00 - Jun 17 by BucksRanger |
And maybe it will grow. We cannot possibly know whether it will or not. I'd love to see the calculations behind Bridges best and worst case scenarios because I suspect there are figures in that document he has that might just be a little bit dubious. Anyway, it looks as though the UK can take a 6% hit on GDP over the next ten years and still be no worse off than it is today once we stop handing over £12.9 billion a year to the EU. |
I would also suggest the 100 B divorce settlement they talk about is to try and cover some of the lost they will suffer
As a net contributor the last 50 years . Boris should tell them to "get stuffed" [Post edited 17 Jun 2017 23:11]
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| Theresa May on 23:10 - Jun 17 with 3279 views | derbyhoop |
Both those assumptions assume that the only thing the UK gets out of the EU is the rebate.
How about the £3bn that goes to UK farmers. And the money that goes to Universities. And the money that goes to Regional Development Funding.
For the latter Cornwall alone got £60m per annum. The govt has offered (this Tory voting area) 6m over 3 years. |  |
| "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky |
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| Theresa May on 23:31 - Jun 17 with 3261 views | BucksRanger |
| Theresa May on 23:10 - Jun 17 by derbyhoop |
Both those assumptions assume that the only thing the UK gets out of the EU is the rebate.
How about the £3bn that goes to UK farmers. And the money that goes to Universities. And the money that goes to Regional Development Funding.
For the latter Cornwall alone got £60m per annum. The govt has offered (this Tory voting area) 6m over 3 years. |
The UK hands over £17.8 billion a year and gets back £12.9 billion and the UK is told what to spend that on I believe. If farmers get £3 billion then they get it out of other UK taxpayers. The taxpayers who handed over the £17.8 billion to the EU. Same goes for universities and development funding. If the UK government isn't paying for these things then it must be the EU paying for them via the £12.9 billion refund and they get that money out of the £17.8 billion the UK taxpayer hands them.
I'm pretty damn certain it doesn't come from Cypriots, Estonians, Latvians, Slovakians or any of the other 27 countries in the EU. Why am I sure? The Guardian would have made a news story out of it by now.
All you are seeing with the Cornwall situation is the government no longer being told to give Cornwall £60 million a year and the government deciding they can spend the odd £54 million saving better elsewhere. [Post edited 18 Jun 2017 0:40]
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| Theresa May on 00:18 - Jun 18 with 3193 views | BucksRanger |
Well that'll be interesting Danny. If the UK lost £66 billion a year for 15 consecutive years, that would amount to £990 billion in lost GDP overall. As the current GDP is USD $2.729 trillion (GBP £2.132 trillion) then in 15 years we would have lost 46% of GDP (GBP £1.142 trillion). I find that hard to believe. Agreed we do trade around 44% of our goods value with the EU but are we really going to shut down all EU trade within the next 15 years to end up with a 46% lower GDP in 2032 whilst not increasing our trade to any serious degree with the rest of the world.
Sometimes I suspect reports are designed to give the results that recipients want to hear.
Oh! and it would also mean that every person in the UK would be £15,000 worse off by 2032. Then again as only slightly less than 50% of the UK are employed (babies, kids, WAGS, old people make up the rest) each working (taxpaying) person will probably be £2,000 worse off each year and £30,000 worse off by 2032. Now, how likely is that? [Post edited 18 Jun 2017 0:50]
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| Theresa May on 00:22 - Jun 18 with 3190 views | Metallica_Hoop |
Whatever happens 'ever closer union' is dead in the water. |  |
| Beer and Beef has made us what we are - The Prince Regent |
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| Theresa May on 08:38 - Jun 18 with 3107 views | derbyhoop |
With all due respect to Bucksranger and others , including myself, commenting on the economics, they are, effectively, back of a fag packet calculations.
They don't model anticipated growth rates, inflation projections, exchange rate fluctuations, etc. I'd rather rely on the detailed economic forecasts drawn up by people far better qualified than us. Of course, any economic model is only as good as the assumptions made that drive the models.
The Treasury did an analysis, pre referendum, modelling 3 options - like Norway (inside the SM but not in the EU), Switzerland, Canada, Turkey type bilateral arrangements, and the WTO scenario. On the middle ground they predicted a fall of £4,300 per household by 2030. That careful analysis was derided as more scaremongering. But, away from Patrick Minford, there is hardly any credible economist who doesn't think that the UK will be much weaker outside than inside.
Of course, none of the warnings came true in 2016, with the U.K. Economy being surprisingly robust. However, this year, the warnings from last year are starting to take root. UK growth last year was, largely, based on consumer spending and rises in personal debt. As inflation bites, real wages are falling and consumer spending is slowing dramatically. Rising inflation is being driven by the falling exchange rate, which was driven by the Brexit vote.
When you add a government seemingly in disarray and negotiations with a well prepared EU27 about to start, the prospects for "a good deal for Britain" are as credible as "strong and stable". | |
| "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky |
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| Theresa May on 23:12 - Jun 18 with 2947 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
Was Hammond saying today that the only way he sees open to funding public services is to put up tax in the autumn budget.
Does not want to borrow and productivity too slow. | |
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| Theresa May on 08:30 - Jun 19 with 2889 views | hopphoops |
| Theresa May on 00:18 - Jun 18 by BucksRanger |
Well that'll be interesting Danny. If the UK lost £66 billion a year for 15 consecutive years, that would amount to £990 billion in lost GDP overall. As the current GDP is USD $2.729 trillion (GBP £2.132 trillion) then in 15 years we would have lost 46% of GDP (GBP £1.142 trillion). I find that hard to believe. Agreed we do trade around 44% of our goods value with the EU but are we really going to shut down all EU trade within the next 15 years to end up with a 46% lower GDP in 2032 whilst not increasing our trade to any serious degree with the rest of the world.
Sometimes I suspect reports are designed to give the results that recipients want to hear.
Oh! and it would also mean that every person in the UK would be £15,000 worse off by 2032. Then again as only slightly less than 50% of the UK are employed (babies, kids, WAGS, old people make up the rest) each working (taxpaying) person will probably be £2,000 worse off each year and £30,000 worse off by 2032. Now, how likely is that? [Post edited 18 Jun 2017 0:50]
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You forgot to divide by 15, 66/2132 =/= 3%. Seems conservative. |  |
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| Theresa May on 10:39 - Jun 19 with 2841 views | francisbowles |
| Theresa May on 23:08 - Jun 17 by 2Thomas2Bowles |
I would also suggest the 100 B divorce settlement they talk about is to try and cover some of the lost they will suffer
As a net contributor the last 50 years . Boris should tell them to "get stuffed" [Post edited 17 Jun 2017 23:11]
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We must stop calling it a 'divorce'.
We are simply leaving a club we (the referendum result) no longer wish to be a member of.
If we have to pay anything back then it is simply an arrears in membership dues and should be relatively low. | | | |
| Theresa May on 18:14 - Jun 19 with 2638 views | Cliff |
People are getting overly excited about our "divorce bill", and think we shouldn't have to pay a penny. I believe that attitude comes from a position of ignorance of what it is we actually owe and what for. I don't claim to know all, or even most of the story on this, but I do come from a community where I believe we would benefit from continued or divorce payments.
I am a working scientist, a physicist if you must know, and I am informed that some of our "divorce bill" comes from scientific research programs we have already signed up to, for instance the European Space Agency, and CERN to name a couple. These institutions are long term projects that we voted to support when we were part of the EU, the funding we agreed to be part of was agreed for longer than we are now likely to be in the EU, so we have two possible options; we could take the view that we agreed to our part in the funding of these projects (not just the two I mentioned as I am sure there are more) and we should honour that agreement and continue to fund them until at least the next round of funding negotiations, thus participating in, and benefiting from their work, or we could pull out of our agreed commitment, renege on our word and drop out. We would then have no input to a number of scientific research projects that would leave us looking like a third world country scientifically.
It's also not just about the big, centrally funded projects like the ones i mentioned, we also coordinate on much more localised research, such as in medicine. At the moment a lot of projects are funded and coordinated at an EU level, this has the benefit that research is not replicated with multiple sites all looking at exactly the same thing.
I am sure there are many other areas where people will be able to justify our contributions into the "divorce bill", not least because we were part of the process that approved the funding, let alone the future benefits we might receive. |  | | |
| Theresa May on 18:25 - Jun 19 with 2624 views | MedwayR |
| Theresa May on 18:14 - Jun 19 by Cliff |
People are getting overly excited about our "divorce bill", and think we shouldn't have to pay a penny. I believe that attitude comes from a position of ignorance of what it is we actually owe and what for. I don't claim to know all, or even most of the story on this, but I do come from a community where I believe we would benefit from continued or divorce payments.
I am a working scientist, a physicist if you must know, and I am informed that some of our "divorce bill" comes from scientific research programs we have already signed up to, for instance the European Space Agency, and CERN to name a couple. These institutions are long term projects that we voted to support when we were part of the EU, the funding we agreed to be part of was agreed for longer than we are now likely to be in the EU, so we have two possible options; we could take the view that we agreed to our part in the funding of these projects (not just the two I mentioned as I am sure there are more) and we should honour that agreement and continue to fund them until at least the next round of funding negotiations, thus participating in, and benefiting from their work, or we could pull out of our agreed commitment, renege on our word and drop out. We would then have no input to a number of scientific research projects that would leave us looking like a third world country scientifically.
It's also not just about the big, centrally funded projects like the ones i mentioned, we also coordinate on much more localised research, such as in medicine. At the moment a lot of projects are funded and coordinated at an EU level, this has the benefit that research is not replicated with multiple sites all looking at exactly the same thing.
I am sure there are many other areas where people will be able to justify our contributions into the "divorce bill", not least because we were part of the process that approved the funding, let alone the future benefits we might receive. |
I think this is where the use of the term divorce is misleading.
It should be quite simple really, there are going to be many programmes in many areas (such as the examples you give) which the UK will wish to continue to be involved in and will therefore have to make contributions towards and I would like to see us have the option of participating in programmes in future as part of the final deal, which I can't see any problems with as it would benefit both the UK and EU.
Then there will be programmes which we no longer wish to participate in so it'll be a case of agreeing what, if anything, we need to contribute financially and at which point we stop paying and stop participating.
All the costs will need to be scrutinised and justified but I don't see why this has become such a big issue. |  |
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| Theresa May on 16:38 - Jun 20 with 2497 views | TacticalR |
'Britain caved in to the EU on the opening day of the Brexit talks, when it agreed to settle its "divorce" before trying to negotiate a future trade deal.
In a major defeat, Brexit Secretary David Davis was forced to drop his central demand for the two strands of the negotiations to be staged in parallel, within hours of arriving in Brussels.
Last month, Mr Davis vowed to wage the "row of the summer" to secure immediate talks on a free trade agreement — predicting an early collapse if the EU refused to give way.'
UK caves in to EU’s demand that divorce terms are given priority over future trade deals
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-talks-negotiations-latest-u
The only positive is that it's one of the arch Brexiters involved, so nobody can blame this on 'enemies of the people'. |  |
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| Theresa May on 18:23 - Jun 20 with 2428 views | johncharles |
Not really surprising. David Davis has always been all talk and no trousers. He loves to play the hard man but he was always full of wind. |  |
| Strong and stable my arse. |
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| Theresa May on 18:36 - Jun 20 with 2404 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
DUP warn Conservatives: Don't take us for granted
Whatever could they mean | |
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| Theresa May on 19:30 - Jun 20 with 2359 views | francisbowles |
| Theresa May on 16:38 - Jun 20 by TacticalR |
'Britain caved in to the EU on the opening day of the Brexit talks, when it agreed to settle its "divorce" before trying to negotiate a future trade deal.
In a major defeat, Brexit Secretary David Davis was forced to drop his central demand for the two strands of the negotiations to be staged in parallel, within hours of arriving in Brussels.
Last month, Mr Davis vowed to wage the "row of the summer" to secure immediate talks on a free trade agreement — predicting an early collapse if the EU refused to give way.'
UK caves in to EU’s demand that divorce terms are given priority over future trade deals
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-talks-negotiations-latest-u
The only positive is that it's one of the arch Brexiters involved, so nobody can blame this on 'enemies of the people'. |
Interesting statistic of 3 million EU citizens in the UK but only 1.2 Million expats in the EU.
That should have some bearing on the exit settlement! | | | |
| Theresa May on 23:26 - Jun 20 with 2280 views | johncharles |
Another U-turn. She has had to drop the plan to cut free school meals from tomorrow's Queen's speech. Another chunk of her manifesto bites the dust. | |
| Strong and stable my arse. |
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| Theresa May on 15:49 - Jun 22 with 2161 views | FDC |
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| Theresa May on 16:08 - Jun 22 with 2122 views | kensalriser |
| Theresa May on 23:26 - Jun 20 by johncharles |
Another U-turn. She has had to drop the plan to cut free school meals from tomorrow's Queen's speech. Another chunk of her manifesto bites the dust. |
Manifesto was dead the moment the exit poll was released. |  |
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| Theresa May on 18:09 - Jun 22 with 2017 views | Watford_Ranger |
| Theresa May on 19:30 - Jun 20 by francisbowles |
Interesting statistic of 3 million EU citizens in the UK but only 1.2 Million expats in the EU.
That should have some bearing on the exit settlement! |
Let's swap them. We don't need young physically fit workers but we have a lack of sunburnt pensioners and former armed robbers. | | | |
| Theresa May on 18:30 - Jun 22 with 1998 views | easthertsr |
Sorry can't do links but did anyone hear Boris on Radio 4 being interviewed the other morning? Ms Abbott was rightly pilloried for her performance in the campaign, if she was ill she shouldn't have gone on. But the tabloids have all gone strangely quiet on his omnishambolic, clusterf*ck performance. If someone can post a link I'd be very grateful, take one listen and then imagine this man as Prime Minister! | | | |
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