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Reply | Swansea 2025 budget
at 19:33 9 Jan 2025
The examples of high-spending mentioned in the thread on school transport and special needs residential care are pretty sobering. When national taxes and council taxes are combined the present level of taxation is very high, but the size of the population needing public assistance seems to be growing worryingly fast. The public expenditure situation at national level makes me wonder how long we can afford all the services we provide. Much of our spending comes from borrowed money. The last time the UK government had a budget surplus (i.e. took more in taxes and revenues then it spent) was 2000-01. With the present situation with bonds and a falling pound, it seems that the "headroom" that Rachel Reeves thought she had for investment has all but gone. There are questions about whether she will cancel her China trip in case the markets panic. |
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Reply | Oldham grooming gangs: Government blocks national inquiry
at 16:17 9 Jan 2025
We shall have to agree to disagree. It is good to make people set out their arguments so that others can judge the strength of the claims. My preference is either a focused public inquiry or some form of action-oriented intervention with teeth (unlikely but more effective), and not the very limited measures and evasion of key issues that the government is trying to get away with.
I see that our Swansea West MP is all for the latter. [Post edited 9 Jan 16:44]
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Reply | Chagos Islands
at 14:08 9 Jan 2025
There is a tendency to talk about international law as if it is a coherent corpus of rules coming from an authoritative source about which all countries agree, Of course, that is not the case. It is a mish-mash of treaty obligations, rulings by various courts, and case law. Not all countries have signed up to particular treaties or recognise particular courts. The one that ruled in this case has no power to impose sanctions or enforce its judgements, which are advisory. Many will think the ruling that the islands belong to far away Mauritius is itself irrational, and takes no account of how Mauritius has treated exiled Chagossians or of the wishes of those Chagossians. |
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Reply | Oldham grooming gangs: Government blocks national inquiry
at 12:57 9 Jan 2025
As I see things, the idea that the rape gangs are just a small part of a larger problem and no more deserving of attention than other domains covered by the 2022 Inquiry, is just a continuation of the narrative we’ve seen from “progressive” commentators right back to the time the problem first surfaced. Why might we think the gangs deserve special attention? I suggest the following:
These were at the extreme end of sexual offences, more extreme than in most other domains covered. The gang phenomenon involved rape (often gang rape), trafficking of minors for sex, pimping, some killings, torture, and supply of drugs to minors.
There was a racial and cultural dimension, involving a view of young white girls from disadvantaged backgrounds as morally-worthless persons who could be exploited and discarded. This took a more extreme form than in the other domains, and raised wider societal questions about the integration of a certain minority population into British society.
There was a cover-up in this domain that seems to have been orchestrated and coordinated in a way that spans multiple organisations and institutions, and the line taken at the front line may have been influenced by messages passed down from very high levels, allegedly including government ministers. There were cover-ups in other domains, but not with this extraordinary level of coordination.
No senior person in any of the institutions involved in the scandal has been brought to book. Looking at other domains covered by the 2022 inquiry there has been some if all too rare examples of accountability: an archbishop has been brought down; a leading newsreader who viewed internet porn was convicted; a few culpable schools like Maidwell Hall have closed.
Can the UK campaign effectively for a halt to child abuse abroad if it does not first get its own house in order? While this must obviously include action in areas like abuse of children in schools and residential care, and indeed in private family settings, the rape gangs are perhaps the most visible manifestation of problems in our own country.
There is widespread concern about the number of unpunished individuals still at liberty, plus inadequate penalties for those convicted, and failure to implement promised deportations. This is a more visible public scandal than in other areas covered in the 2022 Inquiry.
This is a hotter public issue than any of the other domains. Just google “child abuse UK” and see what comes up. |
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Reply | Oldham grooming gangs: Government blocks national inquiry
at 16:01 8 Jan 2025
I suppose the argument is that a new inquiry would:
Investigate one area ("grooming gangs") in detail rather than spread attention across the 15 investigations covered by the 2022 inquiry.
Draw the findings of the various local inquiries (in I think 5 towns) together, consider the much larger number of towns alleged to have been affected, and offer a national perspective on the problem.
Allow investigation of certain sensitive issues concerning "community relations" that were kept at the margins in the 2022 inquiry.
Look in more detail at the parts played by high-level police officers, social workers. schools, residential homes, the CPS, civil servants and politicians, including forcing them to provide evidence.
Consider whether the perpetrators have received appropriate sanctions.
I'm still undecided myself whether a focused public inquiry or an entirely new, more action- oriented intervention is needed. Listening to Starmer in Parliament today, I got the sense of a government that wants to draw a line under this through limited reforms, like mandatory reporting, which are all well and good but leave an awful lot of loose ends as well as culpable people unpunished. |
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Reply | 6000
at 11:08 8 Jan 2025
I felt pleased for Newcastle last night, but I can't say my experience in that city has been quite so positive. Years ago when I worked in Dundee, I travelled down to see the 1981 FA Cup 5th round tie against Exeter City, a team I followed for a while when I lived in Devon. The City fans were squeezed into a small corner near the Gallowgate end. Right from the start they were showered with coins (just copper I'm afraid) - one hitting me on the head. The Geordies eased off a bit when Alan Shoulder put them ahead in the 2nd half, but went ballistic when Exeter equalised in the 87th minute. The City fans had to be kept in the ground for 20 minutes or so and were then marched under police escort to a suburban station where the special train was waiting, all the time being followed by a Geordie mob shouting about how they were going to walk the replay. I was told to stay in line by Old Bill when I tried to leave to go to the mainline station for return to Scotland, but managed to slink away once the crowd thinned. I'm afraid that experience has rather diminished my love for Newcastle fans. I couldn't go to the replay, but was delighted when Exeter won 4-0. [Post edited 8 Jan 11:12]
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Reply | All this Budget Speculation
at 07:30 8 Jan 2025
The yield on UK 30-year gilts went up by four basis points yesterday to 5.22%, exceeding the spike after the Liz Truss fiasco. It is a bit of a mystery why there isn't more of a furore about this, as we are now moving into very dangerous territory. This is because the extra cost of servicing the national debt is now swallowing up the extra money that Rachel Reeves planned to borrow to fund her growth plans. If the extra cost of new borrowing is added to the extra cost of servicing the debt, then Reeves will break her new fiscal rules. The difficult choice she is now facing is between (a) doing that, which would be likely to spook the international markets, (b) raising taxes, or (c) cutting public spending. The big risk is stagflation. If people argue that Truss crashed the economy, I wonder what they think about this?
Edit
Getting worse. Gilt yields up to 5.38% today and pound at lowest rate against US$ for 9 months. [Post edited 8 Jan 15:22]
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Reply | Oldham grooming gangs: Government blocks national inquiry
at 20:00 7 Jan 2025
Re the 3%, I did mention that Simon Bailey quoted that figure, but I am unsure how accurate it is. Given the allegations of widespread dismissal of complaints and failure to proceed with prosecutions, I'd be surprised if it did not underestimate the scale of the problem, especially if we focus on that proportion of sexual abuse that involves adult males and girls. |
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Reply | Oldham grooming gangs: Government blocks national inquiry
at 18:29 7 Jan 2025
Before I became completely disillusioned with the policy direction of the Labour Party, I was attracted to the ideas of so-called Blue Labour. This is the campaign group associated with Maurice Glasman, which I felt might help halt the drift towards becoming a party of woke middle-class voters. The group has been treated disgracefully by the party "progressives", although its ideas do still sometimes get mentioned in areas such as what to do about the red wall seats. Blue Labour have now come out with an interesting statement on sexual exploitation of girls by gangs (can't find the original document).
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/labour-group-breaks-with-party-to-back-groo |
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Reply | Oldham grooming gangs: Government blocks national inquiry
at 16:56 7 Jan 2025
Just heard Simon Bailey, the former National Police Chiefs' Council lead on child protection., setting out on Radio 5 what I would gloss as the establishment line. The main points he made were::
There is no point in a new inquiry, which will just replicate the findings we already have.
The victims would prefer to see the existing recommendations implemented to a new inquiry.
Over 50% of child sexual abuse is child on child abuse.
Asian grooming gangs account for only about 3% of child sexual abuse.
The grooming gangs that do exist are drawn from all ethnicities.
Reforms that he and others have brought in have removed the problem of police officers not acting because they fear being labeled racist.
It is unhelpful to focus on the issue of whether immigration of persons from certain cultures increases the risk of child abuse; rather it is better for government to focus on getting overall incidence of child abuse down.
I can't say I am entirely convinced. I think there is something in the argument that the terms of reference of the previous inquiry were framed in such a way as to protect some institutional interests and stop short of addressing the most sensitive questions. Where I am undecided is whether it is better to move to a new public inquiry, or to establish a new mechanism for investigation of the actions of key figures and dishing out sanctions where deserved. [Post edited 7 Jan 17:00]
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Reply | Labour's New Tick Tock Video
at 10:29 7 Jan 2025
Labour activists don't seem great when it comes to their choice of songs. Playing "Things can only get better" as Sunak gave his resignation speech comes to mind. |
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Reply | Oldham grooming gangs: Government blocks national inquiry
at 10:21 7 Jan 2025
Sorry. but it is all too convenient to seek to discredit a position by pointing to an extreme minority among the many who support that position. For me this just doesn't wash. Of course, there are politics involved, and it would be fair to say that none of the main political parties got to grips with this issue. |
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