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Bill's Take: All Is Not Lost For Rams But Do We Deserve To Go Up?
Thursday, 3rd Mar 2016 06:31 by Bill Riordan

After the weekend’s dispiriting defeat at Wolves, the Rams currently sit in fifth place in the Championship with 57 points from 34 matches.

With three-quarters of the season gone, what are our chances of catching the top two and going up to the Premier League automatically?

Realistically, it is not going to happen.

We are seven points behind second placed Hull and even if they hit a bad patch, Middlesbrough and Brighton are far better placed to benefit than the Rams. Too many teams would have to blow up for the Rams to have a chance at an automatic spot.

On the other hand, the Rams will have to play really badly not to finish in the playoffs. Over the last six seasons, the minimum points total for the sixth placed team was 68 by Leicester in 2012/2013. The most was 78 by Ipswich last season; the average has been 73.

To make 73, the Rams will need 16 points from the last 12 games; that’s four wins, four draws and four defeats. Over the course of a season, that would be well below playoff form and therefore should be easily achievable.

For the Rams not to make the playoffs, Sheffield Wednesday would have to pass the Rams; in addition, one out of Cardiff, Birmingham and Ipswich would also have to pass us. This conceivably could happen but the current form of these three is no more impressive than ours. The Rams certainly should go one better than last season and keep their spot in the top six.

In addition to form being on our side, the Rams should receive a significant benefit from the fixture computer. We have not played a team currently in the top six since being beaten at Burnley in late January. We should have used the intervening matches to stack up points against lesser teams. Unfortunately it has not worked out that way.

However, all is not lost; we still do not have a match against a current top six team until the first week in April when Hull visit the iPro, so we should be more than capable of picking up quite a few points.

Should the Rams make the playoffs, what then? Do we deserve to go up? Over the last 46 league games, the Rams have earned 69 points; this is just about the bare minimum for a sixth place team.

We owe it all to the exceptional spell from early September to the Christmas season, since then we have looked like a team that is fast sliding backwards. However, if we can make the playoffs, of course anything can happen. But it should be noted that Blackpool were the last sixth place team to get promoted, in 2009/10 and they did it with only 70 points.

All of that said, I think that without a major upturn in the Rams’ form, we would certainly struggle to get past our most likely playoff opponents - Burnley or Middlesbrough — at the end of the season.

But if it should happen, what would the Rams do if we were promoted? Which players would we sign? Who do we have that is clearly Premier League class? Can Will Hughes make all the difference? What is our best line-up?

Three months ago, we would have said the squad oozes Premier League class and that we might be able to adapt comfortably to life in the top division. Very few Rams fans would say that now.

The club does not have a permanent manager (or head coach) with any relevant experience or really any credibility. The clubs above us are managed by Sean Dyche, Steve Bruce, Aitor Karanka and Chris Hughton; in terms of management experience, the Rams are not playing in the same league. We also appear not to have anyone who can work the transfer market to identify weaknesses and sign the players to quickly and effectively improve the team.

Regardless, on Saturday we have the first match of the rest of the season against Huddersfield at home. The Rams are odds-on to win but Huddersfield cannot be discounted as they have recently beaten both Wolves and Forest. They do not defend all that well but they score consistently and still have the dangerous Nahki Wells.

I think the Rams need to field a team with fewer central midfield players and more attackers, especially Camara who has to be tried out after looking bright during the limited game time he has been handed.

We do not need many points to make the playoffs, but it tends to seem like a lot when we are struggling to pick them up.

Three on Saturday would do nicely.



Photo: Action Images



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