| Robith's Relegation Index 09:42 - Oct 3 with 30845 views | robith |
I think we can all agree that our primary objective this year needs to be first and foremost to stay up. Further it's been say a mixed bag of a season, where even I, the perennial happy clapper was calling for the manager to be sacked after 5 games. I saw a comment in Brian's thread of someone saying "well, they'll just say Reading were crap" and that got me thinking. Yeah people will.
So I've tried to create a basic statistics system to see. Totally based in the numbers we need to post rather than subjective analysis of how games have gone.
So each week I'll post the index of our chance of survival. Indices work by converting separate numbers into a base (which is scored as 100) and working out how more or less likely an outcome is. 120 is the mark for something significantly being likely to happen, 80 is the mark for something being significantly unlikely to happen.
I've set the base for safety at 50 points. Can revise on feedback
So Gameweek 11:
Played: 11/46 - 24% of games played
Points: 13/50 - 26% of points needed
Based on this our current survival index is 109
At this stage we look like staying up, but it's not a sure thing - we're tracking very close to the baseline run rate.
Stay tuned for more exciting stats action as it comes |  | | |  |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 15:27 - Oct 8 with 4922 views | kensalriser |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 13:04 - Oct 8 by hopphoops |
I'm sticking with my fourth place prediction for now. |
Is that 4th place in the erratics or the crap? |  |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:03 - Oct 8 with 4878 views | hopphoops |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 15:27 - Oct 8 by kensalriser |
Is that 4th place in the erratics or the crap? |
I couldn't possibly say. |  |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:55 - Oct 8 with 4854 views | PinnerPaul |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:14 - Oct 8 by robith |
Gameweek 12 Update: I have added in a Playoff index based on 73 points - the average for 6th place last ten years
Relegation Index: 107 - essentially no change, still broadly on track to stay up, just
vs Bottom 3 Index: 161 - fallen this week due to their results, but still strong currently
Playoff Index: 73 - not outrageous, but a lot of ground to make up [Post edited 8 Oct 2018 10:30]
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but we're 5 points from play offs and 5 points from bottom 3 - so why the big difference? |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 20:55 - Oct 8 with 4806 views | robith |
The bottom three index is vs our current scores, where as the playoff one is how we're tracking vs the total points I forecast we'd need to come 6.
So one is between two relative values on current performance, the other one is tracking a run rate against a fixed goal | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 08:17 - Oct 9 with 4736 views | isawqpratwcity |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 12:39 - Oct 3 by Hunterhoop |
Rob,
I think there will emerge (by mid Nov) about 3 leagues within the Championship this year.
The Good
The Erratic
The Crap.
Broadly speaking, we’re top of The Crap, at present. We’ve really only outplayed those beneath us, and have been tonked by the top lot.
Last year, we were frustratingly the worst of The Erratic, but you could argue we had a stronger defence and keeper. We beat Wolves and Sheffield Utd in one week when they were both top, but struggled against everyone but Brum away from home.
With Wells and Hemed, I think we should certainly be winning The Crap mini league. I’d like to see a settled 4231 shape (call it 4411 with two holding CMs if you like) with Eze at 10 and Pav on the right as a true winger for a while and see if we can break into The Erratic miki league with a few cracking results against teams in The Good mini league. If we can’t I think you can fairly argue McClaren has taken us backwards. If we do, you can argue we’ve moved forward a little.
I think McClaren was hired to take us from bottom of The Erratic league, where the idea was Holloway would never improve us from (quite possibly true), and take us to near top of The Erratic, which is broadly top 10, winning more than we’re losing. This would then set us up to try to progress into The Good mini league the following year.
Derby on Sat will be a good indicator. |
This is consistent with my overall criticism of Holloway, and it was the same at the end of both his seasons: that he was inconsistent and, overall, not very good.
The end of last season suggested that relegation under Holloway was a declining risk, but prospects for improvement weren't great, either.
I am glad that they decided to replace Holloway. I have no great opinion about McClaren, either for or against, but I am relieved to see that we are apparently past that initial sphincter-puckering stage and seem to be moving on to a better run of results. I still think that we have to finish the season in the top half to truly vindicate sacking IH, but he'd had eighteen months for little gain: it was a reasonable decision to try a new manager. |  |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:57 - Oct 9 with 4677 views | PinnerPaul |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 20:55 - Oct 8 by robith |
The bottom three index is vs our current scores, where as the playoff one is how we're tracking vs the total points I forecast we'd need to come 6.
So one is between two relative values on current performance, the other one is tracking a run rate against a fixed goal |
Hmmm - not so sure I agree with that approach if it shows a vastly different index, when in reality we are as close to the play offs as we are to relegation.
Now SUBJECTIVLY, most will agree, that despite the table we are more likely to be nearer relegation than the play offs but thought your model was based purely on stats & when the most important one - points we are from x is identical to points from y, yet your index shows one to be massively more likely than the other, just doesn't seem right to me - again just to emphasise, I'm talking purely based on stats. | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 19:02 - Oct 9 with 4647 views | AgedR |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 08:17 - Oct 9 by isawqpratwcity |
This is consistent with my overall criticism of Holloway, and it was the same at the end of both his seasons: that he was inconsistent and, overall, not very good.
The end of last season suggested that relegation under Holloway was a declining risk, but prospects for improvement weren't great, either.
I am glad that they decided to replace Holloway. I have no great opinion about McClaren, either for or against, but I am relieved to see that we are apparently past that initial sphincter-puckering stage and seem to be moving on to a better run of results. I still think that we have to finish the season in the top half to truly vindicate sacking IH, but he'd had eighteen months for little gain: it was a reasonable decision to try a new manager. |
I’m not seeking to rerun the whole should we/shouldn’t we have got rid of Holloway and I think you make some good a well reasoned points and I think your top half collar is a reasonable barometer.
However, the problem with comparing now to then is that the terms of reference have changed.
How would Holloway have fared if he had been allowed access to a number of fringe premier league class loanees?
Alternatively, would he have been able to attract this calibre of player? |  |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 19:54 - Oct 9 with 4628 views | kensalriser |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:57 - Oct 9 by PinnerPaul |
Hmmm - not so sure I agree with that approach if it shows a vastly different index, when in reality we are as close to the play offs as we are to relegation.
Now SUBJECTIVLY, most will agree, that despite the table we are more likely to be nearer relegation than the play offs but thought your model was based purely on stats & when the most important one - points we are from x is identical to points from y, yet your index shows one to be massively more likely than the other, just doesn't seem right to me - again just to emphasise, I'm talking purely based on stats. |
I'd say that objectively we're closer to relegation, that's what the table says. It's not subjective. There are more teams we need to get past to reach the play-offs than there are teams that need to get past us to put us in the bottom three. | |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 10:36 - Oct 10 with 4522 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:57 - Oct 9 by PinnerPaul |
Hmmm - not so sure I agree with that approach if it shows a vastly different index, when in reality we are as close to the play offs as we are to relegation.
Now SUBJECTIVLY, most will agree, that despite the table we are more likely to be nearer relegation than the play offs but thought your model was based purely on stats & when the most important one - points we are from x is identical to points from y, yet your index shows one to be massively more likely than the other, just doesn't seem right to me - again just to emphasise, I'm talking purely based on stats. |
Yes, because surely whilst we are closer in absolute terms to the play offs currently, our run rate is nowhere near good enough to be tracking for the play offs currently.
The variance is coming from current compression vs my forecast compression. I'm working to the there being a 31% difference in points from relegation to 6th, whereas the current difference is 47%. Hence we have the optics of looking close to the play offs, but we are a way off the likely required points at current rates. | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 10:54 - Oct 10 with 4508 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
Robith’s index is making me feel very stupid.
So basically the bottom percentage needs to be higher than the top one, but not necessarily?
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 12:56 - Oct 10 with 4477 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 10:54 - Oct 10 by BazzaInTheLoft |
Robith’s index is making me feel very stupid.
So basically the bottom percentage needs to be higher than the top one, but not necessarily?
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Don't worry Bazza.
Basically anything over 100 shows that that outcome has the potential to occur - less than it, not so likely
Currently we are narrowly likely to avoid relegation, but are very unlikely to make the playoffs | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 10:50 - Oct 22 with 4381 views | robith |
A top result for the index this weekend:
Relegation index: 120 - we are now currently tracking at a statistically significant level for survival
Play off index: 82 - a big step forward this week, but still unlikely unless the win % rate ticks up again
vs current bottom three: 182. Eat our dust, losers | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 13:27 - Oct 22 with 4200 views | Hunterhoop |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 10:50 - Oct 22 by robith |
A top result for the index this weekend:
Relegation index: 120 - we are now currently tracking at a statistically significant level for survival
Play off index: 82 - a big step forward this week, but still unlikely unless the win % rate ticks up again
vs current bottom three: 182. Eat our dust, losers |
I’d wager two home wins this week and our play off index will be looking very healthy, Rob.
Would probably take 3 points, mind. |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 15:51 - Oct 22 with 4129 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 13:27 - Oct 22 by Hunterhoop |
I’d wager two home wins this week and our play off index will be looking very healthy, Rob.
Would probably take 3 points, mind. |
You'd be correct - win the next two games this week and we'd be at 97 - i.e tracking pretty close to snatching 6th | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 11:21 - Oct 24 with 3989 views | robith |
Big boy movements on the index this week
Survival index: 131
Playoff index: 90!
vs Bottom three currently: 214
B.EL.I.E.V.E | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 00:58 - Oct 27 with 3714 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 15:51 - Oct 22 by robith |
You'd be correct - win the next two games this week and we'd be at 97 - i.e tracking pretty close to snatching 6th |
Holy moly.
Do i need to start an automatic promotion index? | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:54 - Oct 27 with 3531 views | Hunterhoop |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 00:58 - Oct 27 by robith |
Holy moly.
Do i need to start an automatic promotion index? |
Get tracking, squire!! BELIEVE! | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 16:44 - Nov 6 with 3353 views | robith |
Sorry all - I've been on holiday. I'm sure you've all been gutted
Relegation index: 132 - comfortable. Comfortable
Playoff index: 91 - it's still on lads, B.E.L.I.E.V.E | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:39 - Nov 6 with 3314 views | QPR_Nippon |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 16:44 - Nov 6 by robith |
Sorry all - I've been on holiday. I'm sure you've all been gutted
Relegation index: 132 - comfortable. Comfortable
Playoff index: 91 - it's still on lads, B.E.L.I.E.V.E |
Without wishing to dampen your optimism Rob, on an alternative index based on points achieved from corresponding fixtures last season, we’re actually doing worse:(
We have 23 points from 16 games. We got 24 points from those fixtures last season under Holloway. On the same principles of your promotion/relegation index, that would give us a total of 96, with 100 being par with last season. |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:41 - Nov 6 with 3307 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:39 - Nov 6 by QPR_Nippon |
Without wishing to dampen your optimism Rob, on an alternative index based on points achieved from corresponding fixtures last season, we’re actually doing worse:(
We have 23 points from 16 games. We got 24 points from those fixtures last season under Holloway. On the same principles of your promotion/relegation index, that would give us a total of 96, with 100 being par with last season. |
Ban request
(A joke - that's some interesting analysis) | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 19:20 - Nov 6 with 3252 views | Hunterhoop |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:39 - Nov 6 by QPR_Nippon |
Without wishing to dampen your optimism Rob, on an alternative index based on points achieved from corresponding fixtures last season, we’re actually doing worse:(
We have 23 points from 16 games. We got 24 points from those fixtures last season under Holloway. On the same principles of your promotion/relegation index, that would give us a total of 96, with 100 being par with last season. |
The problem with that analysis is that it assumes all teams from last year are exactly the same quality AND you must be supplanting relegated teams into the league and out of the league with those who replaced them?
Not really like for like.
We can only really go on the league as it is, this year, which is what Rob’s index covers. | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 22:31 - Nov 6 with 3188 views | QPR_Nippon |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 19:20 - Nov 6 by Hunterhoop |
The problem with that analysis is that it assumes all teams from last year are exactly the same quality AND you must be supplanting relegated teams into the league and out of the league with those who replaced them?
Not really like for like.
We can only really go on the league as it is, this year, which is what Rob’s index covers. |
Well, not an exact science of course but I think interesting nevertheless. Sure some teams may have improved a bit, others have got a bit worse but few of the sides we played last season are radically different. And while the relegated teams are not as good as the top 3 last season, the promoted teams are better than the ones they replaced, so probably balances out overall - and we’ve played 2 of each so far.
I think we had a fairly kind run of fixtures during our recent little run. By contrast, from the next 7 matches running up to Xmas we took only 5 points last season, so I think we’ll have a much better idea then whether we have made genuine progress. My feeling is that we have, but how we perform against the likes of Brentford, Leeds, Forest, Boro - teams we really struggled against last season - will be the litmus test. [Post edited 6 Nov 2018 22:53]
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 22:34 - Nov 6 with 3182 views | Hunterhoop |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 22:31 - Nov 6 by QPR_Nippon |
Well, not an exact science of course but I think interesting nevertheless. Sure some teams may have improved a bit, others have got a bit worse but few of the sides we played last season are radically different. And while the relegated teams are not as good as the top 3 last season, the promoted teams are better than the ones they replaced, so probably balances out overall - and we’ve played 2 of each so far.
I think we had a fairly kind run of fixtures during our recent little run. By contrast, from the next 7 matches running up to Xmas we took only 5 points last season, so I think we’ll have a much better idea then whether we have made genuine progress. My feeling is that we have, but how we perform against the likes of Brentford, Leeds, Forest, Boro - teams we really struggled against last season - will be the litmus test. [Post edited 6 Nov 2018 22:53]
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That’s fair enough. I’ll think we’ll do better too. Can’t undervalue momentum, albeit being dampened with the last result. | | | |
| QPR Results to date on 23:03 - Nov 11 with 3047 views | superhoopdownunder |
I have looked at our results to date
against teams above us in the table our record is
at home played 3 won 0 drew 1 and lost 2 = 1 point
away played 3 won 0 drew 0 lost 3 = 0 points
Total of 1 point
our record against teams below us in the table is
at home played 6 won 5 drew 0 lost 1 = 15 points
away played 5 won 3 drew 1 lost 1 = 10 points
Total of 25 points
our remaining games are split as follows
home playing 6 teams above us and 8 below us
away playing 6 teams above us and 9 below us
obviously we need to maintain our good form against teams below us in the table but also need to start getting better results against teams above us both at home and away
U R's
Club P W D L GF GA GD Pts Home Away
Norwich City 17 10 3 4 28 20 8 33 0-1
Middlesbrough 17 8 7 2 19 8 11 31
Leeds United 17 8 6 3 29 17 12 30
Sheff Utd 17 9 3 5 27 19 8 30 1-2
West Brom 17 8 4 5 37 25 12 28 1-7
Derby County 17 8 4 5 25 20 5 28 1-1
Nottm Forest 17 6 9 2 23 16 7 27
Swansea City 17 7 5 5 19 13 6 26 0-3
Blackburn 17 6 8 3 20 21 -1 26 0-1
QPR 17 8 2 7 18 22 -4 26
Aston Villa 17 6 6 5 27 23 4 24 1-0
Birmingham 17 5 9 3 23 20 3 24 0-0
Bristol City 17 6 4 7 20 19 1 22 0-3
Stoke City 17 5 7 5 19 20 -1 22
Brentford 17 5 6 6 27 23 4 21 3-2
Wigan Athletic 17 6 2 9 19 26 -7 20 1-0
Sheff. Wednesday 17 5 5 7 21 30 -9 20 3-0
Preston 17 4 6 7 26 30 -4 18 0-1
Rotherham 17 4 6 7 14 23 -9 18
Reading 17 4 4 9 24 29 -5 16 1-0
Millwall 17 4 4 9 22 29 -7 16 2-0
Hull City 17 4 4 9 16 24 -8 16
Bolton 17 4 4 9 11 23 -12 16 2-1
Ipswich Town 17 1 8 8 14 28 -14 11 2-0 [Post edited 12 Nov 2018 3:45]
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 23:34 - Nov 11 with 3002 views | DavieQPR |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:39 - Nov 6 by QPR_Nippon |
Without wishing to dampen your optimism Rob, on an alternative index based on points achieved from corresponding fixtures last season, we’re actually doing worse:(
We have 23 points from 16 games. We got 24 points from those fixtures last season under Holloway. On the same principles of your promotion/relegation index, that would give us a total of 96, with 100 being par with last season. |
Count it again. We had 19 pts after 16 games last season and only got 11pts from the next 16 games. |  | | |
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