Here I was last week, looking forward to the Forest match with a bit of trepidation, following Eustace’s red card against Ipswich.
Like quite a few other Rams fans, I’ve got a lot of time for what John brings to the team, and I didn’t fancy the Forest match nearly as much without him. Then, of course, the news comes about his being out for a few weeks because of an operation, and I’m not happy at all.
As expected, Omar Mascarell replaced Eustace for the Forest match — and the team’s recent run of improved form came to an abrupt end. The Rams’ Championship results with Eustace in the team this season have been almost impossibly good: P13 W8 D4 L1 F27 A9 P28.
In the three Championship matches since Eustace returned after being a scapegoat for the Wigan defeat, the Rams won all three, scoring seven and conceding none.
When Mascarell starts, the team’s record is not nearly as good: P10 W5 D1 L4 F18 A13 P16. At first things went pretty well with Omar in the team, but his last five starts beginning with the Leeds away match have really bothered me: P5 W1 D1 L3 F6 A8 P4.
This is not top two form, neither is it playoff form; it's relegation form.
This is a ludicrous run of results for a team with the talent and proven match winning ability that the Rams have shown. Furthermore, most of the good news in those five games, came in the 3-0 victory against Brighton. And it is not as though these games were all against outstanding teams; Leeds (A), Brighton (H), Middlesboro (A), Norwich (H) and Forest (H). Apart from Middlesbrough, these are mediocre teams that the Rams should be beating.
I am certainly not saying that Eustace is a "good” player and Mascarell is a "bad” player; nor am I attempting to put all the blame on Mascarell for these results. The truth is much more complex than that, but it is clear that when Mascarell plays, something is not working and things do not go nearly as well for the Rams.
I believe that if the Rams are to get back to promotion form, then they have to discontinue using Mascarell in the Thorne/Eustace defensive midfield role.
So what is to be done instead?
According to Steve McClaren, Thorne is training but is at least a month away from playing in the first team. A loan is obviously one option - and very possibly the best one - but let’s take a look at the players currently with the club who could do the job; Coutts, Shotton and Warnock.
Paul Coutts may be a decent shout: he is an experienced midfield player, and although he has usually been used on the wing for the Rams, central midfield seems to be his preferred position. The arguments against him are that he has not played much football this season after his long injury layoff and we also do not know whether he fits in to Steve McClaren’s plans for the future, as rumours of a move to Sheffield United have been reported.
Ryan Shotton arrived at Derby with a reputation for versatility; he could play centre-back, full back or midfield. There have been some questions asked about Shotton’s effectiveness on the occasions that he has played; he also does not have the experience of a Eustace, but he could be worth a try in the defensive midfield position.
Stephen Warnock is a bit of a mystery to me: I cannot really see why the club signed him while Craig Forsyth is still with the club; Warnock seems as though he would be too expensive to sign just as a backup for Forsyth. But he is extremely experienced, and arrives at Derby with an impeccable pedigree.
Could Warnock do a job as the Thorne/Eustace replacement for a while? Most of us probably remember another full back named Graham Alexander doing an exceptional job in that position for Burnley a while back. Also, while Warnock played for Leeds in the League cup this season, he has not played in the FA cup; so he is not cup-tied.
In summary, I am looking to see a new face replacing Eustace for Saturday’s match against Chesterfield; and certainly for Blackburn on Tuesday.
My choice for the job would be Warnock, but I wonder if Shotton might be a bit more likely. But whoever plays, let’s get back to winning!