In last week's column, I wrote nonchalantly: "Last season the Rams scored 65 goals in League matches. That's not many to finish in the top six, but it can be enough if you defend reasonably well." So, the follow-up question has to be asked: can the Rams defend well enough to finish in the top six?
We conceded 62 goals in league matches last season. I'd like to see that reduced by 20%; say, no more than 50 goals conceded. Watford, Hull and Palace of last season's top six let in more than that.
Can we do it?
Over the summer, signings have been made which have changed the defence quite a bit: goalkeeper Lee Grant has arrived, as well as left-back Craig Forsyth; right-back John Brayford has departed and has for the time being - at least - been replaced by Kieron Freeman.
One obvious improvement the new signings should bring is more height to deal with free-kicks and corners. The 6' 4" Grant replaces the 6' Adam Legzdins and the 5' 9" Frank Fielding; the 6' 2" Forsyth replaces the 5' 6" Gareth Roberts, and the 5' 10" Freeman replaces 5' 6" John Brayford. Striker Chris Martin should also offer improved aerial ability when helping out his team mates at the back.
So, we've bulked up quite a bit, but how about ability? Grant should certainly be an improvement in goal; he has bags of experience at this level and has always been well regarded. Forsyth earned very solid reviews during his loan spell from Watford at the end of last season, and should also be a significant improvement. On the other hand, in Brayford the Rams have lost one of our best players; Freeman has started well and should be a solid player at this level, but he has big shoes to fill.
What about the unchanged central defenders, Richard Keogh and Jake Buxton; can they raise the level of their performance from last season? Rams fans would love to see a quick return for Shaun Barker, but we can't rely on a match-fit Barker any time soon.
Keogh and Buxton have good experience, but both are young enough that they should continue to improve. We know too, that Nigel Clough is a good judge of central defenders; he signed Barker, Keogh and Jason Shackell, after all. If he is happy with Keogh and Buxton, we probably should be, too.
One thing that could hurt us is a long-term injury to any of these five; but of course there will always be imponderables.
As we are, if the Rams can maintain concentration and avoid too many of the poor goals that hurt so badly last season, then we can do it.