Despite failing to win any of their first eight Premier League games and being bottom of the table, QPR’s board, management, playing staff and supporters seem to be reasonably calm heading into a weekend game with Arsenal. Why is that?
Premier League >>> Saturday October 27, 2012 >>> Kick Off 3pm >>> Ashburton Grove, London, N5
Prolonged runs of games without winning are nothing new to QPR – although as we approach the six month mark since our last league success and one year anniversary of an away win this one is worse than most – but the overall feeling of calmness and serenity around the place in the face of persistent failure certainly is. QPR fans have never been shy of calling for sackings or resignations, and boards at Loftus Road in recent times have happily delivered with monotonous frequency. One manager after another has been hungrily gobbled up, chewed and spat straight back out again.
This time though it seems Rangers are determined to stick with their man come hell or high water. Tony Fernandes has put all his chips on Hughes and is leaving them there hoping his luck will change despite the roulette wheel turning out a new setback every week. After every defeat comes another Tweet of confidence from the chairman even more vociferous than the last and while that's to be welcomed – silence from boardrooms in such situations creates a vacuum into which the media like to shovel shit – he has rather backed himself into a corner. If Fernandes now fails to Tweet a message of support after a loss everybody will take the opportunity to say Hughes is suddenly on borrowed time, and if the chairman does eventually decide to cut his losses and look for a new man he'll look foolish.
Luckily for Fernandes, there just doesn't seem to be the appetite for a change among the support base either. The sight of QPR conceding another amateurish goal from a set piece against Everton last weekend, and then introducing two new defenders to the line up in the closing stages when the visitors were down to ten men and settling for a point, brought little audible criticism from a capacity home crowd. This is a group of supporters, remember, who once booed the team and its new manager Paul Hart off the field after a 2-1 home win against Bristol City because they'd sent on three defensive players for three attackers in the second half and spent the final 20 minutes barely escaping their own penalty area. This is not an easy crowd to please, or at last keep pacified, as Hart, Chris Wright, Richard Thompson, Flavio Briatore and others will gladly testify to.
The last time I can remember a situation like this was in 2002 when a bright start to a Second Division campaign quickly collapsed into a thoroughly embarrassing run of autumn defeats. Vauxhall Motors put us out of the FA Cup, Cardiff won 4-0 at Loftus Road, Notts County beat QPR 3-0 and could have had six, and the R's were wholly inept when faced with a nine-man Luton team for the best part of an hour at Kenilworth Road and were eventually lucky to escape with a 0-0. It seemed that the manager at that point, Ian Holloway, was a man on borrowed time.
The board kept faith, and while Nick Blackburn and David Davies were pilloried for some of their other decisions while running the show at Loftus Road we should always be grateful to them for that. Holloway, thanks to the expert knowledge of his assistant Kenny Jackett and head scout Mel Johnson, found a young Lee Cook on loan from Watford and results improved. A superb run post Christmas carried Rangers to the play off final where they were unlucky to lose and they were then promoted automatically the following season, and consolidated in the Championship as well, with Holloway at the helm. He is now regarded as somebody who did a superb job at Loftus Road.
Holloway was given more time by the supporters because of his QPR connections as a player, and his likeable personality. Mark Hughes – without meaning to be harsh or cruel – has neither of these. In fact quite the opposite having turned out for Manchester United, who most QPR fans have little time for, and Chelsea, who most QPR fans wouldn't piss on after a massive arson attack. As a manager he exudes self belief and confidence, somewhat arrogantly proclaiming that Rangers would "never be in this position again as long as I'm here" after a near miss with relegation last season. He left Fulham citing their lack of ambition. He's an awkward fit for QPR who are, generally, plucky underdogs, self deprecating and happy to just give it a good go.
So why no 'Hughes out' campaign? Why no 'you don't know what you're doing' that Hart, Paulo Sousa and even former QPR midfielder John Gregory have been subjected to in recent years? Well, in my opinion, there are several reasons.
The first is that Hughes is a notoriously slow starter as a manager and I suspect many supporters are (like me) taking some comfort from his one season at Fulham where they won just two of their first 18 league games in Hughes' only season in charge and were deeply ensconced in the relegation zone after a 3-0 Boxing Day defeat by West Ham at Craven Cottage before rallying with nine league wins in the second half of the campaign that lifted them up to a final placing of eighth. It's still early days – we've only played eight matches in the league despite November approaching because of the stop-start nature of the Premier League fixtures – and there is a lot of time for things to turn around. Approaching fixtures look favourable.
The second is that there are some extenuating circumstances. It's not Hughes' fault, for instance, that his back four has been decimated by injuries this season, including a situation before a big home defeat by West Ham where he was missing all four first choice full backs on both sides. People seem willing to bite their lip through defensive calamities against the Hammers, West Brom and Everton until a fully fit and settled defence is given a chance to take the field for a few consecutive games.
Thirdly, there are some positive signs. The performance against Everton was better – while still a long way from perfect – and there were encouraging displays from Junior Hoilett, Esteban Granero and Samba Diakite. Perhaps it will come good in time.
Fourthly, there is a universal acceptance that if Hughes was to leave then he would be replaced by Harry Redknapp. Bizarrely, this is also the prime reason many would get rid of Hughes quickly as the former Spurs boss is still available, but there is a sizeable chunk of the support base that wonder whether Redknapp's wheeler dealer (don't tell me to fuck off Harry, you are) ways with multiple big money transfers, usually involving agent Willie McKay, are not what QPR's team or bank balance needs right now. And there's also the possibility that Redknapp either wouldn't take the job, wouldn't be offered it, or may be committed elsewhere by the time it comes up. Then what? The other options are thin on the ground and that 'coronation' style appointment where there is one outstanding candidate who can pretty much name his terms hasn't worked out that well so far for QPR with Mark Hughes has it?
But the biggest reason in my opinion is nothing to do with Hughes, or indeed any real hope that he knows what he's doing and will crack it in the end. There seems, in my opinion, to be an attitude among the support base that because of what has gone on before at QPR, with the constant chopping and changing of management, that we'd be better off sticking with Hughes until the very bitter end rather than changing him in case the end does indeed turn out to be bitter.
You'd be forgiven for thinking, given all the hand ringing on Sky and in the press whenever anybody gets the tin tack, that the sacking of a manager is always a bad idea. Quite simply, it's not. There are occasions when even a manager who has enjoyed great and prolonged success at a club has come to a point where he's taken the team as far as he can and a change is right for both parties. Peter Reid at Sunderland is the textbook example of this because having promoted them, moved with them into a fantastic new stadium and taken them to seventh in the Premier League, he then rather lost his way with traditional methods in a modernising sport and started signing people like Phil Babb. In the end Sunderland did no better without him because he hung on too long, and was then replaced with a series of appalling candidates. There are other 'shelf life' examples – Mick McCarthy at Wolves is another.
There are also times when the appointment was clearly just a terrible idea in the first place and the sooner the mistake is admitted to and corrected the better the chances of recovery. Paul Hart at QPR certainly falls into that one, but the prime recent case is Brian Laws at Burnley.
The problem is the likes of Chris Kamara are friends with all these managers so regardless of whether the sacking was a good idea or a bad one they'll use words like 'panic' and talk about 'not being given enough time' in conversations with the usual suspects on the Goals on Sunday sofas.
However, frequently sacking your manager is always a bad idea. No club has ever got anywhere by replacing a manager every year. We saw ourselves in the Championship that despite the huge investment into the team QPR were closer to relegation than promotion after three years of constant chopping and changing and it was only when Neil Warnock and Amit Bhatia brought a modicum of stability and certainty to the situation that things took off. The current bottom five in the Championship have been prolific changers of managers in recent times, likewise the bottom four in League One.
Constantly sacking your managers breeds two problems, both of which are very, very prevalent at QPR at the moment. The first is the squad structure, and this has become even more of an issue since the transfer windows were introduced. If you're sacking a manager once a year on average then you end up with a squad that is just layer upon layer of signings made in different transfer windows by different managers with different ideas. Each time the transfer window opens there's a new manager who wants his own signings to put a stamp on the team so you go out and make seven or eight purchases.
The layers at QPR have become very pronounced in recent times: the Agyemang/Vine/Cook/Ramage layer that was once at the top slowly sunk to the bottom as managers came and went and was shifted on this summer to be replaced by the Smith/Connolly/Hulse/Campbell layer which, again, at one stage had been the great white hope for the team. Hughes added a layer of six permanent signings last January and then another 12 this summer and, perversely for football fans who usually rejoice in every new addition to the team, there's a real sense among QPR supporters that another transfer window of seven new players would be a terrible idea. It would, however, be an inevitable consequence of replacing Hughes before January.
The second issue it creates is that players give up too easily. When the going gets tough the players clock off because they know that sooner rather than later the manager will get the push and then they'll suddenly pull out all the stops to impress the new guy.
Compare the two situations on the back of the QPR programme at last week's game. To the left the bloated QPR squad with several names playing no part at all, and several others besides not even listed but still drawing a wage and either kicking around on loan somewhere or training with the juniors. To the right an Everton squad settled and refined, requiring only a couple of additions each transfer window and only if the right player becomes available. A squad so honed it even had room to bring in Thomas Hitzlesperger outside the transfer window when the manager felt it necessary.
The players at Everton know that if the going gets tough it will be them, rather than ten-year veteran David Moyes, who find themselves heading through the exit door. If they stop playing for Moyes, fall out with him, disagree with his methods or his style of play, then it's rather tough – get on with it or get out. If you dislike the manager at QPR and don't want to play for him any more then it's not really much of a problem, because there'll be another one along in a minute.
I suspect many supporters will accept a ninth game without a win this Saturday as well, as long as the performance is reasonable and the scoreline respectable, given the gulf in just about every possible measure between Rangers and opponents Arsenal. But with subsequent games against Reading, Southampton, Stoke, Sunderland, Wigan, Villa and Fulham looking crucial to QPR's prospects for the rest of the year the good will – whatever the reason for its existence – will begin to drain mighty quickly.
It’s pay day for a lot of you today. If you’re newly minted, or even if you’re not, please spare a fiver for the QPR Tiger Cubs. A group of supporters, including LFW regulars Andy and Jas, are walking from Loftus Road to Arsenal tomorrow to raise money for the Cubs which provide a weekly football training session for scores of young people with Down’s Syndrome in the London area. They need transport to matches, kit, equipment. They need you. Come on, take two minutes and five pounds and help the best thing about QPR become even better still. Visit www.virginmoneygiving.com/team/tigerfeet4 to donate.
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Team News: QPR have a doubt over the fitness of Ji-Sung Park after the South Korean international over extended his knee against Everton and missed training for most of the week. He had a run out on Friday and will undergo a late fitness test. Kieron Dyer seems to have vanished from the face of the earth once again but apart from those two and long term absentees Andy Johnson and Fabio Da Silva Rangers are at full strength.
Arsenal could welcome back two players from very long term injuries this weekend. Bacary Sagna is almost fit again after his broken leg and Jack Wilshere’s 18 months of injury hell are expected to come to an end with a substitute appearance here followed by a start against Reading in the League Cup during the week. I still maintain it’s the fact that Wilshere’s thighs/quads are massively out of proportion with his legs/calves that’s putting too much pressure through his knees and ankles and the problem is likely to reoccur, but to be fair my medical training stretches as far as dating a doctor for three years and I don’t think getting first dibs on a female doctor’s breasts qualifies me to comment.
Anyway, ahem, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is a doubt and according to the BBC Theo Walcott, Kieran Gibbs, Wojciech Szczesny, Abou Diaby and Tomas Rosicky are all ruled out. Maybe this is a good time to play Arsenal after all.
Elsewhere: It’s one of those rare weekends where Sky are actually justified in calling their line up a Super Sunday. With a Merseyside derby between Everton and Liverpool to begin with and then a showdown between early pace-setters Chelsea and Man Utd that promises to be quite an afternoon of Premier League football. Throw in a match up between another two in-form teams, Newcastle and West Brom, and Spurs travelling to struggling Southampton just days after a trip to Eastern Europe and it might actually tempt me into watching Match of the Day 2 this week.
A Saturday list reduced by Europa League commitments begins with two strugglers, Aston Villa and Norwich, meeting in the Midlands for the lunchtime televised game. That wouldn’t exactly capture the imagination normally, but the frosty relations between Paul Lambert and the Canaries since his summer departure, and the recent revelation that he is suing his former club for constructive dismissal, adds spice. Only ESPN know why they’ve picked Man City v Swansea for the evening game.
In the 3pm kick offs Stoke v Sunderland looks like a good bet for a draw if ever I saw one – ten stalemates between them already this season – while West Ham will be confident of another away win at Wigan and Fulham likewise at Reading.
Referee: What’s the difference between an omen and clutching at straws? Perhaps we’ll find out this weekend when Manchester-based referee Anthony Taylor takes charge of QPR’s trip to Arsenal. Rangers only won three away games last season, and lost 14, but one of those successes came at Molineux against Wolves and that was the last time Taylor took charge of a QPR game. In fact, in three appointments with QPR on the road in his career the R’s have won two and drawn one which, considering how seldom they do anything positive in away matches, is quite some record. For his full case file please click here.
Arsenal: The Gunners have a lower win percentage against QPR than any other team in the Premier League era and QPR bettered that record with a 2-1 win in the last meeting but seven of the last 12 meetings have been drawn. Rangers have not won away at Arsenal since the famous John Jensen game in 1994 but have, in fairness, only played Arsenal away three times since then. Arsenal started the season with three consecutive clean sheets but now haven’t kept one in nine outings and have won just one of their last six games at home, drawing three of the others.
QPR: That one year anniversary since QPR last won away draws near. The last away success for Rangers was November 19 at Stoke and since then the R’s have 18 league and cup games without a win on the road. The defeat at West Brom in the last away match means you can just add one to all the numbers from that preview – Hughes has no wins from 12 away games as QPR manager, and just seven from his last 59 road trips with the R’s, Fulham and Man City. Only Blackburn (45) conceded more than QPR (41) away from home last season and nobody lost more (14/19) with bottom placed Wolves losing just ten in comparison. It’s almost six months since a win of any sorts – 1-0 v Stoke on May 6 was the last time the R’s tasted victory. Given that the last home and away wins came against the Potters perhaps we can take comfort in seeing them coming up on the fixture list in two games time. Rangers have drawn three and lost five of eight league games so far this season.
Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding writes…
“Rangers travel to an under pressure Arsenal this week on the back of a decent point against Everton. From a compilers’ point of view, I can’t go into much statistical analysis for this one. The simple truth is having a confident bet on a QPR match prior to the team announcement is a bit like Russian roulette at the moment. Hopefully Sunday will have gone some way to showing Hughes that at present, we can’t defend, so let’s make use of our attacking abilities.
“Jamie Redknapp made a point during the week that if you stop Cazorla, you stop Arsenal and for once I have to agree with the guy. Everything good Arsenal seem to do goes through him and depending how Hughes deals with this determine the outcome of this match. Wilshere may be forced into action earlier than expected due to Arsenal's recent mini-slump but they miss a host of other quality players, and these days Arsenal need all the quality they can lay their hands on after the revolving door saw yet more big name departures in the summer. Arsenal are there for the taking and with Gibbs still out, they will have to continue with Andre ' I prove the theory that Brazilian defenders can’t defend' Santos at left back. That could open the door for Hoilett to continue his goal scoring as he does all his best work coming in from that right hand side.
“So without having any confidence in what side Hughes will pick - my recommended bet for this week is a small each way on first goal scorer market Junior Hoilett at Ladbrokes at a tempting 16/1. (1/3 odds first five goals)”
Prediction: Reigning champion of the LFW Prediction League Nathan McAllister says…
“There were plenty of positives to take from the performance against Everton, but ultimately what Rangers didn’t take from the game was what they really needed most: three points. It was immensely frustrating to see us play one of the league’s in-form teams and control so much of the game – even during the 60 minutes where we didn’t have a man advantage – yet not make it count. At least the teams that Hughes is selecting seem to be getting closer to the one that most of us want to see. Will we get to see Diakite, Faurlin, Granero, Hoilett and Taarabt in the same starting 11 this weekend? We live in hope.
“Rangers’ hopes for this game may hinge on which Arsenal side turns up. If it’s the team that blew away Southampton and outplayed the home teams at Anfield, Upton Park, and in patches at the Etihad Stadium, then it will probably be a matter not of if Rangers get beaten but by how many. However, if Arsenal are anywhere near as toothless and insipid as they were at Carrow Road last Saturday then Rangers have a chance - if they play to their full potential. On balance though it still seems highly unlikely that a 343 day wait for a Rangers away win will end on Saturday at the Emirates, and I expect Arsenal - Cazorla and Arteta in particular –to have a bit too much quality for us on the day.”
Prediction: Arsenal 2 QPR 0
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