Our three pundits are back to try and pick their way through a football coupon in the aftermath of an international weekend that includes QPR hosting Chelsea.
Having changed from the old system where we gave our pundits a mythical £50 to gamble away ever week mainly because Andy Hillman lost so much pretend money last season, it’s sods law to find him raking in winners at the start of the new season. All three of his pre-Man City bets came in last time out: Bobby Zamora to score any time, and Tottenham not to win at home to Norwich and Roma to win at Inter Milan. Brian was right to stake his faith in high flying Tranmere last time out but both Andy and Alex our professional odds compiler were stung by Leicester’s highly controversial win against Blackpool last time out. Still, a betting column that picked four odds against winners for you can’t be bad. Here’s what the guys think this week…
Winners so far:
NAP - Norwich vs QPR - Both teams to score @ 4/6, 24/8/12
LONGSHOT - Tottenham vs West Brom - Lay Tottenham @ 2/1, 24/8/12
NOTEBOOK - Stoke vs Arsenal, Liverpool vs Man City, draw double, 7/1, 24/07/12
QPR related Bet - Zamora to score anytime v Man City at 11/2, 30/08/12
Longshot - Tottenham vs Norwich - lay Spurs @ 1.4, 30/08/12
Notebook - Roma to beat Inter @ 3/1 30/08/12
The international break in football can do various things to various teams, and can be a blessing or a curse - for teams on a poor run it’s an opportunity to regroup and reorganise (I’m hopeful that the break has allowed half our team to meet for the first time, and allow Granero to explain to the rest of them the finer nuances of beating the first man from a dead ball...) whereas for a team on a good run the two weak break can cause momentum to be lost.
If you’ll allow me to drag this analogy out a little further, I’ve been in a fantastic run betting of late, witness my last betting column, where my 11/2, 5/2 & 3/1 shots all came in. I have a week off, and then I’m asked by another website to preview Serbia vs Wales. I predicted a low scoring draw, probably 0-0. Obviously, it finishes 6-1 to Serbia. It would appear that form is very much temporary...
NAP- Man U vs Wigan - Man U to win to nil @ 11/10
It’s not mid March, therefore Wigan haven’t bothered turning up yet. If Wigan were a student, they’d be one of those guys who start their 20,000 word dissertation 48 hours before it was due, and completes it with minutes to spare based on a diet of Pro-Plus and Red Bull. Come to think of it, I was one of those guys... Man U to win comfortably, probably around 4-0...
QPR Related Bet - Back the Chelsea win @ 7/8
I was going to suggest Terry to score anytime at 7/1, but Chelsea’s price is drifting towards evens, which is absolutely huge when you consider the gulf in class between the teams. Chelsea have won all three in the league, Torres is scoring, and annoyingly Eden Hazard is absolutely justifying his huge price tag, and even bigger ego. Arse.
Longshot - Saturday Premiership Yankee
Scanning down the fixture list for things to bet on this week I found myself saying ‘that’ll be a draw...’ an awful lot on the fixtures. A Yankee contains all possible combinations of two, three or all four results coming in over four fixtures. I reckon that Norwich v West Ham, Villa v Swansea, Fulham v West Brom and Sunderland v Liverpool all have a pretty decent chance of being draws. As a guideline, any two coming in is around 5/1, any combination of three is 11/1 and all four is around 25/1.
One for the Notebook - Carlisle vs Swindon - Carlisle @ 13/8
Look at Paolo Di Canio! The guy is crazy! He subbed his keeper after 20 minutes! He got shirty with Lee Cook for taking too long to get off the pitch! He wears Beanie hats when it gets Chilly! What a KeR-AzY individual he is! What do you mean he's lost his last three and is clearly compensating for a lack of tactical nous by being really loud and annoying? Betting Rule number 62: Never Back Crazy.
Winners so far:
NAP - Norwich vs QPR - Both teams to score @ 4/6, 24/8/12
Nap – Tranmere to beat Colchester 21/10, 30/08/12
I am going to avoid our game this week as I think it will be tight and apart from our last game against the SW6 clowns there has only been a goal between the teams in the previous ten games. I still think we are a team getting to know each other and derby games are always difficult ones to call so will give it a miss.
NAP: The nap should be Camelot in the St Leger but at 2/5 it's way too short so I am going for Frankie Dettori’s mount Soul in the 4.15 at Doncaster.
Longshot David Nicholls’ Tax Free is 16/1 in the Portland Handicap and is worth an each way chance.
Finally give them stick on Saturday, sing loud and be proud.
Winners so far:
Norwich v QPR, 11/10 Under 2.5 goals 24/08/12
Previously advised: Cisse to finish top QPR scorer in Premier League, 9/4 Stan James, 17/08/12
Too put in perspective how far we’ve come in the 11 months since that historic victory last October, we went off 10/1 to win that day and punters seem to really be with us this weekend. Early quotes of 11/2 are long gone and we’re now as short as 10/3 with some firms to win the first fixture every QPR fan will have looked for the day the fixtures were released.
Having put the family holiday back 48 hours to make sure I didn’t miss this fixture (amazingly I’m still married) I’ve so far resisted any temptation in having a bet in what will be a competitive West London derby. It's easy to get carried away letting your heart rule your head and use money set aside for the water bill to back the R’s in the hope the victory will be all the sweeter. My betting advice for this weekend’s game is to keep your powder dry, enjoy a game I’m sure will not disappoint and double your stake on QPR winning at Three Point Lane next Sunday.
The rest of the weekend’s coupon has me focusing on League’s One and Two. The Premier League and Championship fixtures I find historically tricky after international breaks, not only have the match prices been out for two weeks now meaning any value is likely to have been hoovered up long ago but the break can derail any momentum a team may or may not have had. So the pick for the weekend is NottsCounty (7/5 Boylesports and Coral) at an Oldham side low on confidence. My early tissue was much nearer the even money mark so I’m surprised to see them as big as 7/5. Despite the 3-2 scoreline County were superb at home to a well organised Shrewbury side last time out and the winning margin should well have been greater. The well drilled 4-3-3 line-up Keith Curle has adopted looks perfectly suited to get the best out of Jeff Hughes and the excellent Alan Judge who looks destined for greater things.
As a longshot Onismor Bhasera of Plymouth gets the nod (33/1 first goal & 12/1 anytime Paddy Power) Two weekends ago at home to Northampton ‘Baz’ put in a man of the match display playing left of a front three where he twice went close to getting on the score sheet. Having missed last weekend’s stalemate at Torquay as featuring for Zimbabwe in a World Cup Qualifier he is expected to go straight back in the line-up so is well worth chancing at a handsome price.
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