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Final standing Predictions 07:46 - Apr 19 with 2447 viewsvanrrrr

Good News: Fivethirtyeight stats nerd model has us safe by a point!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/

bad news - these are the same analysts who said on election day 2016 HRC would smash Trump.

Anyway needed a bit of hope before heading to LR today ...
[Post edited 19 Apr 2023 10:30]
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Final standing Predictions on 07:53 - Apr 19 with 2415 viewsNorthernr

19 days ago before we played Wigan that lot said there was a 15% chance of us being relegated.
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Final standing Predictions on 08:40 - Apr 19 with 2297 viewsstowmarketrange

Final standing Predictions on 07:53 - Apr 19 by Northernr

19 days ago before we played Wigan that lot said there was a 15% chance of us being relegated.


There were quite a few on here that confidently predicted a couple of months ago that we aren’t going to be relegated.I wonder what they’re thinking now?
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Final standing Predictions on 08:42 - Apr 19 with 2290 viewsCroydonCaptJack

Final standing Predictions on 07:53 - Apr 19 by Northernr

19 days ago before we played Wigan that lot said there was a 15% chance of us being relegated.


To be fair, that should have been about right to any outsider. Unfortunately most haven't witnessed what we have. I would have lumped on but I can never bring myself to bet against us (no matter how profitable that would have been over the years!)
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Final standing Predictions on 08:43 - Apr 19 with 2281 viewsGaryBannister86

Final standing Predictions on 08:40 - Apr 19 by stowmarketrange

There were quite a few on here that confidently predicted a couple of months ago that we aren’t going to be relegated.I wonder what they’re thinking now?


I was one of those who thought we had enough points two months ago, but that was because I thought Reading would get docked 12 and Huddersfield too.

Was nothing to do with confidence in the team :-)
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Final standing Predictions on 09:11 - Apr 19 with 2117 viewskropotkin41

One of our close neighbours, a very clever lady, has recently published a book which points out just what bullsh*t models generally are.... I paraphrase. They're rubbish at predicting the speed at which things get worse.... climate tipping points or QPR melting away unfathomably fast.

‘morbid curiosity about where this is all going’

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Final standing Predictions on 09:13 - Apr 19 with 2105 viewsenfieldargh

they also call it soccer

captains fantastic
Poll: SWEET F'IN CAROLINE. Played every half time

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Final standing Predictions on 09:24 - Apr 19 with 2050 viewsLblock

After Wigan's win last night I think we'll finish stone last.

Below two teams with point deductions

Nice one Bungle and the boys

Cherish and enjoy life.... this ain't no dress rehearsal

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Final standing Predictions on 09:37 - Apr 19 with 1968 viewsPhilmyRs

Final standing Predictions on 09:24 - Apr 19 by Lblock

After Wigan's win last night I think we'll finish stone last.

Below two teams with point deductions

Nice one Bungle and the boys


Don't think it was the worst thing in the world with Wigan winning, keeps them alive (hopefully) for when they're away at Reading. But still think we'll drop as I can't see where any points are coming from.
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Final standing Predictions on 09:37 - Apr 19 with 1967 viewsBklynRanger

Final standing Predictions on 09:11 - Apr 19 by kropotkin41

One of our close neighbours, a very clever lady, has recently published a book which points out just what bullsh*t models generally are.... I paraphrase. They're rubbish at predicting the speed at which things get worse.... climate tipping points or QPR melting away unfathomably fast.


The speed at which things get worse is certainly the problem with that 538 prediction I think - we're a whole 2% less likely than Reading to get relegated but the pace of our decline has got to be far greater.

Needs a bit of the old mixed methods: if Nate Silver had gone on Saturday he'd just have written 'fcuked' beside our chances.
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Final standing Predictions on 09:40 - Apr 19 with 1951 viewsSimonJames

Final standing Predictions on 09:24 - Apr 19 by Lblock

After Wigan's win last night I think we'll finish stone last.

Below two teams with point deductions

Nice one Bungle and the boys


With Wigan's and Blackpool's remaining fixtures, coupled with better goal differences, I wouldn't bet against that.
I guess it mainly comes down to whether Millwall start winning again...

100% of people who drink water will die.

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Final standing Predictions on 09:01 - Apr 21 with 1512 viewsBklynRanger

Now been updated with us as slight favourites to join Wigan and Blackpool:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/

Happy Friday...
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