| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. 07:28 - Jun 28 with 38482 views | BigDaveMyCock |
Only speculation but a few things have happened, in particular in the Conservative Party, that makes me think that the appetite for Brexit has reduced significantly.
Cameron's decision not to invoke Article 50 immediately has thrown the leavers into turmoil as it is now down to one of them to do the ultimate. It will now be the responsibility of the new PM to invoke Articld 50, a move nobody intended, or wants, to make. IDS and Gove all noted by their absence and Boris looked pale as milk yesterday with the realisation that Merkel et al have said a firm no to negotiations prior to invoking Article 50. This means the future PM will have nothing to 'sell' to the country or the markets prior to invoking Article 50. They will not be able to have one piece of legislation or even negotiation in their hands re 50% of UK trade. It would be like pushing an economic nuclear bomb if a new PM was to invoke Article 50 in such a situation as market confidence would collapse and multinationals up sticks. This will be an even more difficult act to undertake if the UK is in recession, which even the leavers acknowledge may very well be the case. Indeed, Boris has come out attempting to ease fears by stating that the UK remains very much at the heart of Europe and nothing much will change with the ultimate irony being that if we are to negotiate access to the single market then the terms of that negotiations will be very much like what we have already. Merkel et al permitting.
There are now rumours that top people in the Tories including some leavers and whips are sufficiently spooked enough to not back Boris or another leave candidate.
Could be wrong but expect stalemate. EU will call UK bluff and UK will be unwilling to do the ultimate deed because they will not be able to get the deals they so desperately want. Fascinating times.
[Post edited 28 Jun 2016 7:35]
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 18:18 - Jun 30 with 3167 views | isitme |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 14:25 - Jun 30 by KenBoon |
I thought it was 38% or something around that figure. |
There were a number of graphics produced by the Guardian (so it must be true) breaking down voting by demographics etc and the turnout by the 18-24 age group was 25%. So if 75% of those voted to remain then of all 18-24 year olds eligible to vote only 18% actually voted to remain in the EU. |  | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 18:38 - Jun 30 with 3114 views | frenzied |
i don't know why people are moaning about the result ..the Brexit won fair and square
Its already creating loads of jobs..everyones resigning..Cameron,shadow cabinet Hodgson Neville ...Boris has bottled it..back to the game show clown role i think..Gove or May for PM?,,not much of a choice there..at this rate we will need people smugglers to get us out of the UK let alone trying to stop them coming in! | | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 18:39 - Jun 30 with 3128 views | BigDaveMyCock |
I think it's safe to say from Gove's interview that Johnson, as predicted in the opening thread, has bottled it. You could just tell in that first interview that he was 'fook,what the hell have I done' and then when it became apparent that Merkel et al would not negotiate pre Article 50 he was well and truly fooked. Where the fook's IDS in all of this? Another one probably having second thoughts? | |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 18:58 - Jun 30 with 3068 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 17:16 - Jun 30 by EllGazzell |
The whole situation is pathetic.
I can't accept that with a referendum arranged for as long as it was, they could not have a plan in place.
No wonder the EU member states are incredulous at the situation. It's ok to give the UK some time to settle before activating article 50 but now it's getting ridiculous.
It needs activating asap and the UK starting it's leave, they said leave, now please just leave so we can all start to get on with things. |
Yes but think of it strategically. The problem invoking Art 50 is that as soon as you do that your negotiating position dramatically reduces. The clock starts ticking and Merket et al will, quite rightly, exploit that. The UK have to have a deal. The EU strategy is that you reject everything that doesn't suit you and, in the end, the UK, so deperate to get any sort of deal in place before the two years is up, will relent.
The leavers are now fully aware of that and that is why they are noticeable by their absence. The politics of blame is easy. Coming up with a credible alternative, not just presumption, is the real test. [Post edited 30 Jun 2016 19:02]
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 19:07 - Jun 30 with 3034 views | mingthemerciless |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 18:15 - Jun 30 by ArthurDaley |
Theresa May, god help us, the thick as Bisto home secretary, as one columnist calls her.
I suppose she has a couple of good points. She takes Gideons mind off the economy.
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Thick or not, she's the next Prime Minister. Gove may as well throw the towel in now. | | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 19:22 - Jun 30 with 3013 views | MoonyDale |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 19:07 - Jun 30 by mingthemerciless |
Thick or not, she's the next Prime Minister. Gove may as well throw the towel in now. |
Theresa May ffs, the female John Major...... |  |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 19:24 - Jun 30 with 3014 views | ArthurDaley |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 19:22 - Jun 30 by MoonyDale |
Theresa May ffs, the female John Major...... |
cant see her wanting to sh*g Edwina Currie, but then again........... |  |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 20:33 - Jun 30 with 2938 views | Rochdale_dodger |
SCREWEU... We buy 70bn worth of products and services from EU companies and pay even more in subscriptions and these jumped up idiots have the cheek to try and hold us to ransom over free movement. It is perfectly reasonable to not accept mass immigration with no control when millions of people want to come to the UK. I don't care if I don't drive a German car or wear French clothes, we have two years to find companies who want our money and the world is a big difference place. SCREWEU | | | |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 20:44 - Jun 30 with 2926 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 20:33 - Jun 30 by Rochdale_dodger |
SCREWEU... We buy 70bn worth of products and services from EU companies and pay even more in subscriptions and these jumped up idiots have the cheek to try and hold us to ransom over free movement. It is perfectly reasonable to not accept mass immigration with no control when millions of people want to come to the UK. I don't care if I don't drive a German car or wear French clothes, we have two years to find companies who want our money and the world is a big difference place. SCREWEU |
I can fully understand why you have a lot lose from immigration. | |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 23:28 - Jun 30 with 2813 views | D_Alien |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 20:44 - Jun 30 by BigDaveMyCock |
I can fully understand why you have a lot lose from immigration. |
And why would that be? Surely you're not implying the poster is intellectually challenged, are you? |  |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 06:28 - Jul 1 with 2738 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 23:28 - Jun 30 by D_Alien |
And why would that be? Surely you're not implying the poster is intellectually challenged, are you? |
D_Alien, please let rochdale_dodger speak for himself, you're demeaning him. [Post edited 1 Jul 2016 6:29]
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 06:50 - Jul 1 with 2728 views | D_Alien |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 06:28 - Jul 1 by BigDaveMyCock |
D_Alien, please let rochdale_dodger speak for himself, you're demeaning him. [Post edited 1 Jul 2016 6:29]
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But I'd have no problem demeaning him
Whereas when you set yourself up as a minder, you become a sitting duck
Quack quack | |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 06:57 - Jul 1 with 2722 views | downunder |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 18:38 - Jun 30 by frenzied |
i don't know why people are moaning about the result ..the Brexit won fair and square
Its already creating loads of jobs..everyones resigning..Cameron,shadow cabinet Hodgson Neville ...Boris has bottled it..back to the game show clown role i think..Gove or May for PM?,,not much of a choice there..at this rate we will need people smugglers to get us out of the UK let alone trying to stop them coming in! |
Smuggled to where? Australia and NZ as well documented, are very strict on who they let in. To the EU...perhaps, but will you be welcome? USA? perhaps, but wait until Trump is out of the picture. Now where is there nearby which is successful.? Oh of course, Iceland. |  | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 07:06 - Jul 1 with 2714 views | EllGazzell |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 06:57 - Jul 1 by downunder |
Smuggled to where? Australia and NZ as well documented, are very strict on who they let in. To the EU...perhaps, but will you be welcome? USA? perhaps, but wait until Trump is out of the picture. Now where is there nearby which is successful.? Oh of course, Iceland. |
They won't have them, I've got an Icelandic mate here and he says after the cod wars, any British (but we can take it as English) trying to flee to Iceland for refuge from UKIP and the far right would be sunk the moment they entered Icelandic territorial waters.
The back story https://guidetoiceland.is/history-culture/the-cod-wars [Post edited 1 Jul 2016 7:07]
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 07:30 - Jul 1 with 2685 views | roccydaleian |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 20:44 - Jun 30 by BigDaveMyCock |
I can fully understand why you have a lot lose from immigration. |
Do you specialise in immigration law BDMC? |  | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 07:58 - Jul 1 with 2658 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 07:30 - Jul 1 by roccydaleian |
Do you specialise in immigration law BDMC? |
Why, you looking for an Irish passport? | |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 08:05 - Jul 1 with 2652 views | roccydaleian |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 07:58 - Jul 1 by BigDaveMyCock |
Why, you looking for an Irish passport? |
Ha, no! Just wondering if you had a vested interest? | | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 08:16 - Jul 1 with 2633 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 08:05 - Jul 1 by roccydaleian |
Ha, no! Just wondering if you had a vested interest? |
God no, stear well clear of immigration, family or personal injury. | |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 09:20 - Jul 1 with 2588 views | pioneer |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 15:55 - Jun 30 by 1mark1 |
No. |
BBC reporting 60000 new members in last few days...thats a lot of interest in ensuring the party remains in chaos. | | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 11:41 - Jul 1 with 2525 views | D_Alien |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 09:20 - Jul 1 by pioneer |
BBC reporting 60000 new members in last few days...thats a lot of interest in ensuring the party remains in chaos. |
Corbyn is absolutely right to stay put. I had a sneaking admiration for him as a principled politician until he betrayed himself by supporting the Remain campaign after spending his whole career fighting the anti-democratic nature of the EU
He knows he'll win any leadership contest through the backing of the membership, and the fatal hesitation by any leading candidate to stand against him and set up a contest shows they know it too. By doing so, they'd destroy their own credibility with the rank and file
The only alternative for those not on the far left is to set up a breakaway group, like the SDP in the 1980's when Michael Foot's leadership was creating similar problems. Not a very enticing prospect!
Edit: just seen the voting thread - should have posted this on there. I voted Stay.
[Post edited 1 Jul 2016 11:44]
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 12:18 - Jul 1 with 2486 views | fermin |
My brother flew in from Vienna last night and we had quite a long discussion about the vote and how it is seen over there.
He says that a recent poll showed that about 49% of Austrians disliked the EU (Austria is also a net contributor to the EU like the UK). That is not the same necessarily as voting to leave the EU because, unlike us, it would be almost impossible for them to do so because of being in the Euro and Schengen and their geographical location. However, a smaller number has expressed the view that they would like to leave the EU whatever the consequences. He has had Austrian acquaintances approach him about the vote nervously. When they find out that he would have voted out (he did not have a vote due to length of time he has been out of the UK) they have congratulated him on escaping the EU.
The latest furore is about the proposed trade agreement (CETA) with Canada which the EU Commission has said has to be imposed on EU states without discussion in national parliaments. This is a precursor to the somewhat controversial TTIP agreement being discussed with the US, under which US companies could sue governments in special courts if they do anything that affects their profits. I believe this is similar to the NAFTA treaty between US, Canada and Mexico under which the Canadian government is being sued by US companies annoyed at Canadian legislation to protect the environment (I may have got that wrong).
The Austrian PM Kern (who comes from a party similar to Labour) has asked that the CETA at least be discussed or even just rubber-stamped in the Austrian Parliament to give it democratic legitimacy locally, only to be told by Mr Juncker that the Parliament is a Klamauk ('pantomime'). Austrians have not appreciated being told that by him that (a) their democracy is a joke and that (b) Austria agreed to allow the Commission to impose things like this on it when it signed the Lisbon treaty (the provisions of which most politicians seem to be largely ignorant). My brother has read the Lisbon treaty and he gave a talk to FPO (Austrian UKIP) politicians about the provisions. They could not believe some of things the Austrian parliament were not allowed to do (eg put in a provision in the Austrian constitution giving Austrians the right to use cash which the EU commission would like to abolish in the Eurozone). He gave them the relevant clauses in the treaty and they confirmed he was right. It does make you wonder if the same is true here.
You can read about controversy more here if you can read German (I am not sure about the bias, if any, of the paper concerned):
http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Muessen_wir_uns_DAS_von_der_EU_bieten_lassen-Kla ('Must we put up with THIS from the EU' is the title)
Apparently Austrian agriculture is in crisis because of EU regulations and EU sanctions with Russia. Farmers in my sister-in-law's area are saying they can no longer survive and are going to give up. This is obviously disastrous for rural communities, which are very important in Austrian life and culture.
My brother also keeps a close eye on the German press and commentary from over there. He may well be biased in his sources, but a view from over there is that Brexit shows that the EU Commission is losing its grip on the EU very much as the old DDR Politburo began to lose its grip before the wall came down. I am sure that there are many views in Germany on this matter just as there are here, but this does show how the EU is viewed with scepticism amongst voters if not necessarily mainstream politicians on the continent.
For example, in the recent Austrian presidential election the candidates in the first round from the traditional ruling parties (broadly the equivalent of Labour, LibDem and centre right Tories) were almost wiped out. The final choice was between the Green candidate and the Austrian equivalent of UKIP with the result being very close, probably decided by postal votes. It is now going to be rerun. His view is that the EU obsession with driving forward an ever more centrally controlled superstate with disdain for local views and the suppression of discussion about these topics (particularly immigration) has led to widespread frustration and the rise of parties like UKIP throughout Europe, which is now beginning to boil over into dangerous anti-immigrant sentiment even in historically tolerant (in relative terms) countries like the UK.
My brother has also been talking to some Bulgarian and Latvian friends/colleagues of his. The Bulgarians are saying that there are now many villages and places in Bulgaria which are completely empty or just have pensioners in them. It is similar in Latvia. Britain is seen as a great destination because the economy is doing well compared to most of the rest of Europe and there are relatively few regulations over here regarding getting jobs and starting businesses (unlike Austria for example). EllGazell seems to have a different point of view (I think), but my brother's opinion is that the depopulation of Eastern Europe of the younger generation is a big problem for these countries. They invest time and money educating and training their young people to become doctors, teachers etc and then they up sticks and leave for Austria, Germany and Britain. From the point of view of young people in countries, like Spain for example, where youth unemployment is around 50-60% the freedom of movement in the EU is great because it at least gives them a chance of getting some sort of job in another country like Britain. What their view is how the EU and/or the Eurozone has or has not brought about this level of youth unemployment crippling their futures in their own countries I am not certain.
He is amazed at the polls showing that young (educated) people are so pro-EU in this country. Apparently, it is exactly the opposite in Austria - most of them cannot stand it. I told him about a small pro-EU demonstration I saw here in Oxford (which was 70% Remain) a couple of days ago. He was disappointed to miss it as he would have liked to discuss it with them and find out why they love it so much.
Picking up on an earlier point about jobs and employers in the City of London. He pointed out (and I have to take his word on this) that it is very unlikely many would move out to, say, Frankfurt, though it is likely some jobs will go. One of the reasons London is so successful as a financial centre is down to the lack of financial regulation in this country. However, the German finance minister, Schauble, about two years ago stated that he wanted to bring London financial institutions to heel and analyse them closely like they do in Germany. This did not go down well at all. Also the recent financial crises in the US (mortgages etc?) was partly down to the fact that US banks sold somewhat dodgy products from their UK offices because they would not have been allowed to do so under US regulations.
A bit long, but I thought I would contribute something, albeit mainly second hand. |  | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 12:36 - Jul 1 with 2471 views | D_Alien |
Not going to reply as a copy due to the length of the post, but...
Thankyou, Fermin. That is an incredibly worthwhile and authentic insight into how the EU is seeking to dominate the nation states of Europe. So much of this goes unpublished and unheeded, especially by our younger generation. Others have said it, and I'll repeat - the Leavers have done them a huge favour, though they don't know it yet. Also, we've done a favour to the ignored populations elsewhere, in giving them some hope and perhaps belief that it can be changed.
Thanks once again for taking the time to post that. | |
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| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 12:44 - Jul 1 with 2453 views | mingthemerciless |
Anybody who want's to bring the London financial institutions to heel has got my vote. Just a shame they didn't do it ten years ago. | | | |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 15:47 - Jul 1 with 2342 views | 49thseason |
| Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 09:20 - Jul 1 by pioneer |
BBC reporting 60000 new members in last few days...thats a lot of interest in ensuring the party remains in chaos. |
Sounds like another 4chan hoax. Or maybe the Kippers and Tories who missed out last time have joined to make sure Jeremy wins! They seem to think £3 is an excellent investment in Labour chaos. |  | | |
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