With exactly half the season gone Saints have a great opportunity.
Its true to say that most Saints fans could not have dreamt that we would be top of the table at the half way mark, the general consensus seems to have been back in August, that around 8th -10th hovering around a play off spot would have been a good position to be in for us, so of course its a pleasant surprise to be wrong.
Sadly though this has been a convenient excuse, everytime we lose a game or play badly and in the second half of the seaso, we need as supporters to get out of "We are lucky to be here mode" and into "We are totally focused"
To be blunt the five year plan is out of the window, teams in our position have to take their chances when they come, the problem we will have if we dont go up is that our key players are likely to be poached by Premiership clubs, meaning that next season will see a big rebuild needing to be put in place, the stark reality is that this is our moment we need to grasp it.
Im sure Nigel Adkins will be thinking along these lines and will be wanting to make some key signings in the January transfer window, if we are to maintain our push these are essential, if we look at the season so far pragmatically, we were better in the first 12 games than we have been in the last 11.
In those opening dozen games we notched 26 points an average of 2.16 per game, in the last 11 we have amassed 21, an average of 1.90, this might not sound like a big gap, but when you look a little closer and realise that the last six games have seen an average of 1.33 per game, then we have to heed the warning that we are on a slow downward spiral and we need to do something about it.
A look at last seasons's table shows that leaders QPR had 47 points after 23 games so we are on course, but they also had a seven point lead over three clubs behind them, but that was a low points scoring season, usually at the half way mark the leading club hits the 50 mark and the pack are around 42-47.
Of course there are reasons for this happening and with the january transfer window about to open, we have the opportunities to address the causes of our dropped points.
These arent negative views, these are a look at the hard facts, come the final league table all that matters is points and positions, succesful teams are always aware of whats going wrong and whats going right at any time in a season.
What we have done right is that we score goals for fun, what we have done wrong is that we have lapses in concentration that cost us goals at vital times especially away from home and these cost us points, the list of these is endless, Pompey & Doncaster are just two recent examples of this, in those two games alone, all we had to do was remain tight and we would have an extra three points, that could make all the difference at the end of the season, but they are just a snapshot, I could name another four or five games where if we hadnt given away silly goals we could have picked up more points, yes every club lets in soft goals, but not on the regularity we do, even Nigel Adkins admitted we rarely let in a contender for goal of the season.
Nigel Adkins is already speaking of the need to bring in key signings, he seems to be aware that if Rickie Lambert was to be out for whatever reason he needs a replacement in the same mould, hence I expect Jutkiewicz to be a target again, likewise he is well aware that for the last few months we have had to push Guly up front due to Barnard's long term injury and Connolly's seemingly inability to stay fit for anything other than a short period, that being the case i would hope that he also brings in a forward in the mould of Sharp/Maynard/Rodriguez to partner Lambert.
If he does that then the midfield needs little tinkering at this stage, as this would enable him to put Guly back into the right sided position he played so well in in the early part of the season.
At the back it seems we will also be looking to strengthen and strangely it seems we are in for another central defender, Fontaine of Bristol City being a target again, I say strangely for several reasons, firstly because we have only just signed Hooiveld permanently, given our inability to keep clean sheets lately, is he looking to sign Fontaine to come into the side and erase these errors or is he looking merely for back up, personally I would prefer us to be looking at a truly Premier quality central defender at this stage, someone who can cut out the lapses in concentration at the back and is ready for a top flight campaign should we be promoted, Im sure there are those that will throw their arms up in anger and tell me that Hooiveld and Fonte are good enough, all I say to that is look at our goals conceded total, we have let in exactly the same number as Pompey, in fact on the road we have incredibly let in more than them and even Coventry have only conceded 3 more than us on their travels, if this doesnt set alarm bells ringing then perhaps nothing will, Nigel Adkins seems to know about the problem.
In essence the key to promotion is making three key signings, if we do that then there is no reason why we shouldnt go on and win automatic promotion as we have addressed the areas that are costing us points at present, the worst thing would be to do nothing and hope that things will change, but the old adage is that "If you do the same things, you get the same results" and the bigger picture is we would continue to drop points and let in stupid goals as at Pompey.
A failure to make these key signings point to only two areas, A the manager doesnt see the need ( I dont think this is the case, he is already making noises in the press) or B. The Club are not backing the manager ( I dont think this will BE the case, however we have to look at the possibilities)
If Nigel Adkins wanted to be extremely ruthless then he could look to sign a new keeper, again before I start getting the abusive messages, I did say IF, so far Kelvin Davis has been adequate this season, however if we are looking ahead, signing a genuine Premiership quality keeper now could not only be another help towards cutting out those errors at the back, but could win us a few more points and would be a piece in the jigsaw ready for next season.
I know this is harsh, but if we want to get back amongst the big boys then we need to put sentiment to one side and do what we need to do.
To summarise, its been a great first half of the season, but the worry is our best period of it was in the first six games, we have a great opportunity here, we have a squad that will almost certainly not be together intact next season if we fail to go up, so we need to seize the chance now, go forwards and improve, if we do so then the sky is the limit.
With 23 games left the target is still two points per game average, achieve that and 93 points will be enough to send us up, probably as Champions, to do that we need to win 13 games draw 7 and lose only 3, when you consider some of the clubs we have to visit away from home, that puts our task into perspective, its going to be a tough 23 games.