| Competition for immigrants? 12:39 - Jul 15 with 3824 views | dirk_doone |
23 nations are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.
The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a "jaw-dropping" impact on societies, say researchers.
Countries, including the UK, have used migration to boost their population and compensate for falling fertility rates. However, this stops being the answer once nearly every country's population is shrinking.
"We will go from the period where it's a choice to open borders, or not, to frank competition for migrants, as there won't be enough," argues Prof Murray.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521 |  |
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| Competition for immigrants? on 14:11 - Jul 15 with 2971 views | DorsetIan |
What are you on Dirk!?
Are you suggesting that we might be desperate for immigration in years to come? Not us Brits, surely. We will never be dependant on foreigners. We will never surrender.
There really is no place for this kind of counter-intuitive thinking on TUI. |  |
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| Competition for immigrants? on 14:29 - Jul 15 with 2951 views | Sadoldgit |
| Competition for immigrants? on 14:11 - Jul 15 by DorsetIan |
What are you on Dirk!?
Are you suggesting that we might be desperate for immigration in years to come? Not us Brits, surely. We will never be dependant on foreigners. We will never surrender.
There really is no place for this kind of counter-intuitive thinking on TUI. |
😂 |  | | |
| Competition for immigrants? on 16:01 - Jul 15 with 2916 views | Bazza |
What a ridiculous forecast predicting 2100, very few on here are going to be around then to check - unless there's a longevity pill developed. By then there could be 2 World wars, numerous invasions and 2 pandemics if the previous 100 years is any guide. I predict by 2100 there will be bisexual female black pope (if not happened already?) and the Saints winning the Premier League with a couple of female centre backs? Of course still too soon for any gay footballers to come out or for Soggy to vote Tory! | | | |
| Competition for immigrants? on 17:20 - Jul 15 with 2892 views | Sadoldgit |
| Competition for immigrants? on 16:01 - Jul 15 by Bazza |
What a ridiculous forecast predicting 2100, very few on here are going to be around then to check - unless there's a longevity pill developed. By then there could be 2 World wars, numerous invasions and 2 pandemics if the previous 100 years is any guide. I predict by 2100 there will be bisexual female black pope (if not happened already?) and the Saints winning the Premier League with a couple of female centre backs? Of course still too soon for any gay footballers to come out or for Soggy to vote Tory! |
I have voted Tory Bazza, but it was a very long time ago 😉 | | | |
| Competition for immigrants? on 17:52 - Jul 15 with 2886 views | DorsetIan |
| Competition for immigrants? on 16:01 - Jul 15 by Bazza |
What a ridiculous forecast predicting 2100, very few on here are going to be around then to check - unless there's a longevity pill developed. By then there could be 2 World wars, numerous invasions and 2 pandemics if the previous 100 years is any guide. I predict by 2100 there will be bisexual female black pope (if not happened already?) and the Saints winning the Premier League with a couple of female centre backs? Of course still too soon for any gay footballers to come out or for Soggy to vote Tory! |
I know, don't you just hate the way these 'scientists' pick figures out the air and present them as worth consideration and how peer-reviewed rags like the Lancet then publish them !!
Far far better to take your approach and simply deny the possibility of prediction beyond - what shall we say? - a ten year time frame.
And it's amazing that the authors of these things are so unaware of the methodological difficulties involved in making such predictions.
We are all so fed up with 'experts'. They should all pack it in and we can just see what happens. That'd be best.
Full report available here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fullt | |
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| Competition for immigrants? on 19:50 - Jul 15 with 2837 views | solent_toffee |
| Competition for immigrants? on 16:01 - Jul 15 by Bazza |
What a ridiculous forecast predicting 2100, very few on here are going to be around then to check - unless there's a longevity pill developed. By then there could be 2 World wars, numerous invasions and 2 pandemics if the previous 100 years is any guide. I predict by 2100 there will be bisexual female black pope (if not happened already?) and the Saints winning the Premier League with a couple of female centre backs? Of course still too soon for any gay footballers to come out or for Soggy to vote Tory! |
To be fair as a lapsed Catholic I think you’re being very optimistic about the tolerance levels at the Vatican. In 2100 they will still have their medieval views whilst getting up to no good behind closed doors. | | | |
| Competition for immigrants? on 19:57 - Jul 15 with 2832 views | Bazza |
| Competition for immigrants? on 17:52 - Jul 15 by DorsetIan |
I know, don't you just hate the way these 'scientists' pick figures out the air and present them as worth consideration and how peer-reviewed rags like the Lancet then publish them !!
Far far better to take your approach and simply deny the possibility of prediction beyond - what shall we say? - a ten year time frame.
And it's amazing that the authors of these things are so unaware of the methodological difficulties involved in making such predictions.
We are all so fed up with 'experts'. They should all pack it in and we can just see what happens. That'd be best.
Full report available here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fullt |
Do I sense a touch of sarcasm Ian? Just making the point that there are too many variables beyond say 10 years as you suggest. I guess someone has the need to do long term forecasts on best available but not worth any proper debate here. I’ll stick to my poor forecasting of Saints results, with too large statistical variances to be useful! | | | |
| Competition for immigrants? on 20:04 - Jul 15 with 2825 views | Bazza |
| Competition for immigrants? on 17:20 - Jul 15 by Sadoldgit |
I have voted Tory Bazza, but it was a very long time ago 😉 |
I voted for Blair ho hum! Seems in any case that whether you vote Tory or Labour the end result is not so different as the Politicians would have you expect from their manifestos. | | | |
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| Competition for immigrants? on 22:01 - Jul 15 with 2795 views | Sadoldgit |
| Competition for immigrants? on 20:04 - Jul 15 by Bazza |
I voted for Blair ho hum! Seems in any case that whether you vote Tory or Labour the end result is not so different as the Politicians would have you expect from their manifestos. |
Reminds of the old saying “it doesn’t matter who you vote for, the government always gets in”!
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| Competition for immigrants? on 22:47 - Jul 15 with 2764 views | DorsetIan |
| Competition for immigrants? on 19:57 - Jul 15 by Bazza |
Do I sense a touch of sarcasm Ian? Just making the point that there are too many variables beyond say 10 years as you suggest. I guess someone has the need to do long term forecasts on best available but not worth any proper debate here. I’ll stick to my poor forecasting of Saints results, with too large statistical variances to be useful! |
How do you know there are too many variables? Do you not think that anyone trying to make predictions over that length of time understands the inherent difficulties?
We've been hearing from years that the world population with be x billion or y billion by the year whatever and if you extrapolate from world population to date, you might reasonably draw that conclusion that is will just keep increasing.
As I understand it, this report is casting doubt on that idea of an ever increasing world population, and on that basis it's an interesting piece of research. I wouldn't just dismiss it out of hand. | |
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| Competition for immigrants? on 22:49 - Jul 15 with 2763 views | A1079 |
I read the article Dirk with some interest, but I have to admit to being slightly confused by conflicting world messages and contradictions. I admit my intellectual understanding of these things may be limited but I do try to read the various viewpoints and try to gain some appreciation of an issue.
In simplistic terms I thought the world would be pleased to see a downward trajectory in the world population. Why? because I thought that is what the world was crying out for and the reasons for this were:-
- a continued upward trend in population is not sustainable for the most basic needs of food and water provision;
- increasing population accelerates damage to the world's ecosystem and environment;
- space availability, housing, transport etc pressures;
- unsustainable pressure on the world's infrastructure
I sort of understand that a downward trend in the world population would create:-
- a succession issue of young people and therefore the problems of reproduction etc become self perpetuating;
- fewer young people feeding through into the adult world means less taxes being collected and therefore less public funds available for public services and pensions
- an growing elderly population with people living longer means that the point is accelerated with more demands on the public services particularly health and social care etc
All that said, I would have thought some form of downward trajectory with population management through an on/off tap approach to incentive and disincentives to encourage birth control is more sustainable than an ever increasing one - but what do I know against what the scientists and economists claim to know - the thing is - none of them will be around long enough to know whether their predictions are right. When I was at school in the 70's I recall everyone was saying we would all need to work less and have more leisure time etc but people generally work longer hours now and IT has not diminished employment or work opportunities overall (accepting of course the usual recession periods and events like the current one). [Post edited 16 Jul 2020 7:25]
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| Competition for immigrants? on 22:53 - Jul 15 with 2759 views | DorsetIan |
And neither would I write off The Lancet just because not all its articles prove to be correct.
I'll still take its attempts to publish truthful things over a straw in the air or some 'fake news' prophet.
There's clue in the fact that the Lancet retracts things when they are proved to be false. Would that the same discipline applied elsewhere. | |
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| Competition for immigrants? on 22:53 - Jul 15 with 2759 views | dirk_doone |
One of the things that will happen post-Brexit, is the departure of Polish people currently working in waste disposal, care homes, construction, farm labour etc and their replacement by immigrants from Africa and Asia.
As most Brexiteers have said on here, they voted for Brexit to end racism and the preferential treatment given to Europeans. Brexit is certainly going to signal a much more colourful Britain. [Post edited 16 Jul 2020 9:23]
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| Competition for immigrants? on 23:03 - Jul 15 with 2737 views | DorsetIan |
| Competition for immigrants? on 22:53 - Jul 15 by dirk_doone |
One of the things that will happen post-Brexit, is the departure of Polish people currently working in waste disposal, care homes, construction, farm labour etc and their replacement by immigrants from Africa and Asia.
As most Brexiteers have said on here, they voted for Brexit to end racism and the preferential treatment given to Europeans. Brexit is certainly going to signal a much more colourful Britain. [Post edited 16 Jul 2020 9:23]
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Yes, I always found the antipathy of those on the right towards white, Christian Poles a little perplexing. Be careful what you wish for, eh. | |
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| Competition for immigrants? on 23:18 - Jul 15 with 2730 views | dirk_doone |
| Competition for immigrants? on 23:03 - Jul 15 by DorsetIan |
Yes, I always found the antipathy of those on the right towards white, Christian Poles a little perplexing. Be careful what you wish for, eh. |
Goodbye to Europe; welcome to the Commonwealth. It's what Brexit is all about: a return to the immigration pattern of the 60s. [Post edited 16 Jul 2020 9:22]
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| Competition for immigrants? on 00:22 - Jul 16 with 2711 views | Ron11 |
| Competition for immigrants? on 23:18 - Jul 15 by dirk_doone |
Goodbye to Europe; welcome to the Commonwealth. It's what Brexit is all about: a return to the immigration pattern of the 60s. [Post edited 16 Jul 2020 9:22]
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I voted Brexit in the hope that we regain regain control of our borders. Certainly not to remove hard working europeans, but to prevent the entry and facilitate the removal of hard core criminals, illegal asylum seekers drug traffickers, slavery operators, prostitution racketeers, gun smugglers, murderers, terrorists and all other filth from our country without the European Court Of 'Human Rights' telling us we can't do it.
One example we have Somali criminal gangs operating in this country. I don't ever recall them being part of the Commonwealth after British Somaliland. So what the fu ck are they doing here?
Why are the French allowing boatload after boatload of 'asylum seekers' to cross the channel despite payment and an agreement not to let this happen.
Couldn't possibly be because they are a problem and that they don't want to have to deal with it would it! Of course not, the French love them to come here and live on our benefits. [Post edited 16 Jul 2020 0:27]
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| Competition for immigrants? on 01:11 - Jul 16 with 2703 views | dirk_doone |
| Competition for immigrants? on 00:22 - Jul 16 by Ron11 |
I voted Brexit in the hope that we regain regain control of our borders. Certainly not to remove hard working europeans, but to prevent the entry and facilitate the removal of hard core criminals, illegal asylum seekers drug traffickers, slavery operators, prostitution racketeers, gun smugglers, murderers, terrorists and all other filth from our country without the European Court Of 'Human Rights' telling us we can't do it.
One example we have Somali criminal gangs operating in this country. I don't ever recall them being part of the Commonwealth after British Somaliland. So what the fu ck are they doing here?
Why are the French allowing boatload after boatload of 'asylum seekers' to cross the channel despite payment and an agreement not to let this happen.
Couldn't possibly be because they are a problem and that they don't want to have to deal with it would it! Of course not, the French love them to come here and live on our benefits. [Post edited 16 Jul 2020 0:27]
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Yes, British Somaliland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Somaliland#/media/File:Flag_of_British_Som
Anyway, one of the great things about Brexit is that it's going to help us discover a lot more about British Commonwealth history and make the French want to help the British even more.
[Post edited 16 Jul 2020 9:14]
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| Competition for immigrants? on 06:19 - Jul 16 with 2670 views | solent_toffee |
| Competition for immigrants? on 00:22 - Jul 16 by Ron11 |
I voted Brexit in the hope that we regain regain control of our borders. Certainly not to remove hard working europeans, but to prevent the entry and facilitate the removal of hard core criminals, illegal asylum seekers drug traffickers, slavery operators, prostitution racketeers, gun smugglers, murderers, terrorists and all other filth from our country without the European Court Of 'Human Rights' telling us we can't do it.
One example we have Somali criminal gangs operating in this country. I don't ever recall them being part of the Commonwealth after British Somaliland. So what the fu ck are they doing here?
Why are the French allowing boatload after boatload of 'asylum seekers' to cross the channel despite payment and an agreement not to let this happen.
Couldn't possibly be because they are a problem and that they don't want to have to deal with it would it! Of course not, the French love them to come here and live on our benefits. [Post edited 16 Jul 2020 0:27]
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A pedant writes, there’s no such thing as an illegal asylum seeker. Once you have claimed asylum, you enter a legal process, where you either are granted leave to remain and move status to become a refugee or your case is refused and technically you become a failed asylum seeker.
One of the main issued and confusions around the asylum process is that the legislation in the UK has always been weak from successive governments since around the break up of Yugoslavia. There had been asylum cases before in the UK from those fleeing Idi Amin in Kenya and ‘Boat People’ from Vietnam. But at the time this was largely seen as a positive thing, the UK stepping in to help people.
In the mid to late nineties and early 21st century numbers went through the roof comparatively, although the millions described in some parts of the media never happened. The legislation was often rushed, ill prepared and reactive and the system has been poor, the Tories started it and Labour were just as bad.
Hence terms like illegal asylum seeker have developed over time despite being the term not actually existing. | | | |
| Competition for immigrants? on 08:40 - Jul 16 with 2623 views | Ron11 |
| Competition for immigrants? on 06:19 - Jul 16 by solent_toffee |
A pedant writes, there’s no such thing as an illegal asylum seeker. Once you have claimed asylum, you enter a legal process, where you either are granted leave to remain and move status to become a refugee or your case is refused and technically you become a failed asylum seeker.
One of the main issued and confusions around the asylum process is that the legislation in the UK has always been weak from successive governments since around the break up of Yugoslavia. There had been asylum cases before in the UK from those fleeing Idi Amin in Kenya and ‘Boat People’ from Vietnam. But at the time this was largely seen as a positive thing, the UK stepping in to help people.
In the mid to late nineties and early 21st century numbers went through the roof comparatively, although the millions described in some parts of the media never happened. The legislation was often rushed, ill prepared and reactive and the system has been poor, the Tories started it and Labour were just as bad.
Hence terms like illegal asylum seeker have developed over time despite being the term not actually existing. |
Not all asylum seekers are illegal. As you mentioned, the 'Ugandan asians' fleeing the evil of Idi Amin came here with a legitimate case. And a lot of those who came here with nothing have integrated, become a part of the community and have succeeded.
But paying unscrupulous criminals to arrange boat trips across the channel or arriving from Somalia to join aggressive drug gangs is not legal. | | | |
| Competition for immigrants? on 09:37 - Jul 16 with 2591 views | solent_toffee |
| Competition for immigrants? on 08:40 - Jul 16 by Ron11 |
Not all asylum seekers are illegal. As you mentioned, the 'Ugandan asians' fleeing the evil of Idi Amin came here with a legitimate case. And a lot of those who came here with nothing have integrated, become a part of the community and have succeeded.
But paying unscrupulous criminals to arrange boat trips across the channel or arriving from Somalia to join aggressive drug gangs is not legal. |
As I said there is no such thing as an illegal asylum seeker, it’s not an opinion, it’s a fact. Once someone claims asylum they enter a legal process. What happens before they arrive, well that’s a different matter, whether they are classed as economic migrants, displaced, etc.
The whole issue is a global nightmare and it gets reported very badly so we are under the impression that we are flooded with millions of asylum seekers coming here for to take advantage of a generous welfare state, which is simply untrue.
The vast majority of displaced/refugees never get the opportunity to apply for asylum and end up in refugee camps in the middle of nowhere for years, possible the rest of their lives.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ten-largest-refugee-camps-1378220055 | | | |
| Competition for immigrants? on 10:29 - Jul 16 with 2567 views | DorsetIan |
| Competition for immigrants? on 22:49 - Jul 15 by A1079 |
I read the article Dirk with some interest, but I have to admit to being slightly confused by conflicting world messages and contradictions. I admit my intellectual understanding of these things may be limited but I do try to read the various viewpoints and try to gain some appreciation of an issue.
In simplistic terms I thought the world would be pleased to see a downward trajectory in the world population. Why? because I thought that is what the world was crying out for and the reasons for this were:-
- a continued upward trend in population is not sustainable for the most basic needs of food and water provision;
- increasing population accelerates damage to the world's ecosystem and environment;
- space availability, housing, transport etc pressures;
- unsustainable pressure on the world's infrastructure
I sort of understand that a downward trend in the world population would create:-
- a succession issue of young people and therefore the problems of reproduction etc become self perpetuating;
- fewer young people feeding through into the adult world means less taxes being collected and therefore less public funds available for public services and pensions
- an growing elderly population with people living longer means that the point is accelerated with more demands on the public services particularly health and social care etc
All that said, I would have thought some form of downward trajectory with population management through an on/off tap approach to incentive and disincentives to encourage birth control is more sustainable than an ever increasing one - but what do I know against what the scientists and economists claim to know - the thing is - none of them will be around long enough to know whether their predictions are right. When I was at school in the 70's I recall everyone was saying we would all need to work less and have more leisure time etc but people generally work longer hours now and IT has not diminished employment or work opportunities overall (accepting of course the usual recession periods and events like the current one). [Post edited 16 Jul 2020 7:25]
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Yes, if the world population is going to level off and decline then overall that's got to be a good thing. Until this report, I think people were assuming continued rises - hitting around 11 billion by the end of the century, with all the pressures on space, resources and the environment that that would entail.
A more steady number of people in the world gives things a chance to settle down a little because in the last hundred years the world's population has gone from about 2 billion to about 7/8 billion! | |
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| Competition for immigrants? on 10:34 - Jul 16 with 2564 views | DorsetIan |
I used to be on a friday night quiz team with a miner and a local shopkeeper in a County Durham former mining village. The shopkeeper's claim to fame was that he was responsibility for installing the street lighting in Mogadishu, while he was there during or just after the war. | |
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| Competition for immigrants? on 11:38 - Jul 16 with 2538 views | arfurdent |
So this competition for immigrants, will it be like the National Lottery?
Does two numbers get you a couple of eskimos? |  |
| And the White Knight is talking backwards
And the Red Queen's off with her head |
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| Competition for immigrants? on 14:22 - Jul 16 with 2514 views | Ron11 |
| Competition for immigrants? on 10:34 - Jul 16 by DorsetIan |
I used to be on a friday night quiz team with a miner and a local shopkeeper in a County Durham former mining village. The shopkeeper's claim to fame was that he was responsibility for installing the street lighting in Mogadishu, while he was there during or just after the war. |
Street lighting in Mogadishu.
I wonder if it's still working.... | | | |
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