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That Oxford research uses data on Brexit voting profiles by age group to argue that a significant retiree population had a big influence on the result in Wales. However, it does not go into the crucial issue of which Welsh localities voted which way. Merthyr and Rhonda Cynon Taff are hardly areas where large numbers of English retirees settle, but they and indeed all the valley areas voted heavily for Brexit. Other academics explain this with reference to industrial history, culture, and disillusionment with the Welsh political elite rather than English retirees.
Wales had a higher percentage of leave voters than England. if Killy's silly hypothesis was correct and English incomers merely replicated the English pattern to influence the Welsh result then you would not get the result we had.
Rejoining would not restore the old rebate, and would probably require agreement to join Schengen, participate in immigration "burden sharing", and in the longer term adopt the Euro. The UK would become a net contributor at a time of continuing EU enlargement with poorer countries joining, and the big two (Germany and France) less able to subsidise the beneficiary countries. There would be a requirement to be bound by the EU's new economic governance framework with its risk-based surveillance and enhanced enforcement regime, plus its mandatory requirement to implement the prescribed measures needed to "secure the green and digital transitions". That framework includes rules on markets, competition and public debt limits that may not be wholly congenial to a Labour government, including in areas such as the Fourth Railway Package, which appears incompatible with Labour's rail nationalisation plans. There would be heavy pressure to coordinate European defence, probably under a unified command. The fishermen would lose any prospect of getting a bigger share of agreed catches in the various regulated sectors. In the legal domain, we would sign up to the whole EU acquis communautaire, and again become a rule taker rather than a rule maker. Personally I do not think a return is a great idea at the present juncture. Many people on here probably think that all the above means nothing if they can avoid paying £6 for a holiday visa waiver.
I'm starting to get really frustrated with the slow build ups and refusal to put in crosses even when in good positions. Key and Harris are among the guilty ones.
Bit of bad luck with the deflection, but we are very much second best. As I write we almost conceded again. The way things are coming from behind is hard for us.
Well, we will see when more information comes out, but the posts were quite recent, and reports say the man also ran a website with anti-Islamic content, I accept that the authorities might prefer a story of that kind, and it seems that some pro-immigration groups in Germany are saying this was a supporter of AfD who turned on Germany because it did not support extreme policies. It wasn't so much the occupation and age that I had in mind when I said the attacker was atypical, but the social media posts and reaction to them,
It is an interesting suggestion, but seems a bit of a stretch to me. Two possible avenues that the barrister may have had in mind are:
1. The possibility that a verbal statement, promise or acceptance of an offer becomes a contract in law. This seems more likely to apply to business than politics, and depends on establishing that what was said causes another party to rely on that statement in such a way that they are financially injured by that reliance. Even in the business domain this is difficult to prove.
2. The principle that a statement by a public authority can create a legitimate expectation that a promised course of action will be followed, and that denial of this legitimate expectation is unlawful. Again this is a difficult thing to establish and as far as I know has been applied to the area of public administration rather than politics. The nearest example I can think of is R (on the application of Wheeler) v Office of the Prime Minister (2008). This was a case where Wheeler argued that a Labour Party Manifesto commitment to hold a referendum on the related Constitutional Treaty meant that the Labour government should hold a referendum on whether to ratify the Treaty of Lisbon.
You can probably gather that I am not a fan of radical Islam, but it seems from the content of his X posts that the arrested man - "Taleb A" - was an activist who had been involved in getting Saudi atheists and other dissidents who oppose Islam into Europe. So if we can believe the reports he is not the usual jihadist zealot.
Edit:
Among the X posts was one accusing the German people of being responsible for the killing of Socrates and some that said the police were opening his mail. I won't count a post blaming Merkel for the "silent Islamisation of Europe" as necessarily indicating mental disturbance.
The background to this is media reports about so-called Muslim patrols and the counter-reaction from certain UK groups. Much of the coverage is probably unreliable, but there do seem to have been incidents where Muslims have tried to impose their behavioural norms on persons walking in public areas. At least five persons have been jailed for offences relating to this.
From official statements it is looking as though this is a highly unusual case where a 50 year old Saudi national, who worked as a prison psychiatrist, held strong anti-Islamist views, and appeared to have made bizarre X posts that might indicate a mental disturbance, I guess we need more information before we have much idea about motivation. All I would say is that in addition to the obvious risks of jihadi violence, mass immigration into Europe sets in play complex interactions and dynamics that can cause collateral damage.
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