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As they seem to have started already, this should be an ongoing thread until August
Seny Dieng - Reims who are mid table in Ligue 1 reportedly interested Conor Masterson - Gillingham, where he spent the 2nd half of the season; are confident of signing him, but Exeter are also interested
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky
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Summer Transfer Rumours on 10:14 - May 31 with 7242 views
Summer Transfer Rumours on 20:49 - May 30 by Hunterhoop
I understand the logic and applaud the positivity, but the numbers you’re quoting are operational losses not including disallowable costs that contribute to the FFP number. This was pointed out to me when I quoted similar numbers a while ago (when I was actually making the point that I thought we would fail FFP this season when our accounts are published next Spring). I don’t have the exact numbers to hand but I think there are around 4m of disallowable costs each year, so work on a negligible loss, a £20m loss the season before last, and then an unknown loss this last season.
So really we could lose £19m in this last season and be there or thereabouts. So, you’re probably right and we won’t breach FFP when the accounts are published next Spring.
But…
With these numbers, the problem is this coming season. With the rolling FFP, the Eze year drops out, so you suddenly need to break even this season, or, assuming we got our loss down from 20m to 15m last year, 4m. But that’s a huge step further. Even if we did better this season, so the progress next season doesn’t need to be as drastic, the principle is still that this season needs to basically match the Eze year when we brought in 16m of revenue. That means this season we need to net off that sort of number in terms of what we sell and buy.
That’s why I think that everything we can sell will be sold, and everyone brought in will be on a free.
IF we do this stay up and achieve a loss of around that level, we’ll suddenly have a huge amount of cap room in the FFP rolling figure again. That will also be the season when Johansen’a salary will drop off, and a lot of the existing squad’s contracts expire. We’ll likely have the budget to keep our best players on better contracts and bring in one or two.
So, basically, this coming season is the really hard one. And there could be a light at the end of the tunnel if we get through it.
What I don’t quite understand is why Hoos and Ferdinand don’t explain/sell a vision of what the future could hold in a couple of seasons now so everyone understand what’s facing us for the next 12 months. I think it would help Ainsworth create the “us against the world” mentality he goes for, and it will manage the expectations of what will likely come this summer in terms of sales and signings.
This silence is stupid in my view.
It’s their biggest failing in my view; explain the realities by all means, but sell a vision, explain what we’re aiming for and get people excited about the journey there even if it could be a rocky one.
Good to hear you are suggesting our numbers might be around £4m better off than I was suggesting based on these disallowable costs. I’m not sure though as I’m quoting the numbers used by Swiss Ramble and I don’t think he would have used the overstated figures.
I believe that the club approach in bringing the budget down to fit FFP has been similar to landing a plane in Gibraltar. Quite a steep descent onto a tight spot but manageable. Going from the £24.7m loss to a £10.2m loss to a £4.1m loss. Helped along this way by the Dieng and Chair World cup appearances money and Eze £4m of add ons a chunk of which to be triggered next month it seems.
Whereas it seems you think it’s more an absolute nose dive from £20m loss one season to a £19m loss last season to the need to break even next year. I just don’t think that passes the smell test so to speak and I think is massively overstating the task. Which brings me back to my original point I think that the size of the problem is overstated. Will see in time, do we need to go from a £19m loss to a break even in one year or do we need to go from a £10m to a £4m loss
I get that its been pretty relentlessly depressing watching Rangers since beating Reading 4-0 at the end of January 22. So I think that clouds peoples judgement about how difficult a task is ahead of us.
I believe a major problem within our club as a mentality problem. The players would seemingly give up as soon as things looked a bit tough and now big chunks of our fan base do the same just writing us off and exaggerating the difficulty of the task ahead and I think its infectious. Feeding from the stands to the players in both directions.
I look at the line ups of the play off final between Coventry and Luton and in each of those sides I see only two players (maybe three out the Luton side) who I would have put into my first choice line up from the Rangers team we had last year. It really isn’t that impossible to do well in this league
Think the negative nature of the fan base is just going to drag us down when a more positive approach and we might be surprised at the momentum we can get going in the right direction.
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Summer Transfer Rumours on 10:17 - May 31 with 7213 views
Summer Transfer Rumours on 18:27 - May 30 by derbyhoop
You have to remember that the £4m loss was lower due to the money received for Eze. £16m is. Without that the loss would have been £20m+. We don't know the details of that deal so speculation about how much we might receive if he gets a transfer or plays for England, is little more than a guess. Players like Austin & Johansen may have been free transfers and wages are unlikely to be in the multi millions. Releasing 12 youngsters + 6 x 1st team squad members may help. Up to a point.
Don’t forget to factor in that in the 20/21 season the revenue that season was just £14.5m however in the 21/22 season without Covid it was £22.1m. So not all bad news and certainly not otherwise a £20m+ loss that season
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Summer Transfer Rumours on 12:42 - May 31 with 6898 views
Ali Al-Hamadi from Wimbledon the latest name mentioned. Iraqi striker who Gaz had at Wycombe but ended up scoring for fun in League 2 with Wimbledon last season.
Summer Transfer Rumours on 12:42 - May 31 by aston_hoop
Ali Al-Hamadi from Wimbledon the latest name mentioned. Iraqi striker who Gaz had at Wycombe but ended up scoring for fun in League 2 with Wimbledon last season.
So Gaz sold him to a team in the league below in January and now wants to sign him for a championship team? Would be an interesting one.
Bare bones.
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Summer Transfer Rumours on 12:55 - May 31 with 6826 views
Summer Transfer Rumours on 12:48 - May 31 by Antti_Heinola
So Gaz sold him to a team in the league below in January and now wants to sign him for a championship team? Would be an interesting one.
"So Gaz sold him to a team in the league below in January and now wants to sign him for a championship team?"
It does sound a bit strange but WWFC were the first senior team he played for and he joined at the age of 19. He came through the Swansea - and Tranmere - academies.
He got 10 in 20 for Wimbledon last season and is now a full international for Iraq.
If you can stomach the wobbly fan filmed footage, here are said 10 goals. He looks like a decent finisher but who knows if he can cut it at Championship level.
"Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1."
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Summer Transfer Rumours on 14:56 - May 31 with 6384 views
It wouldn't surprise me. The Sheff Wed message board (I think it was them) managed to get them linked with a player who didn't even exist a few summers back as an experiment into this. You're already seeing all the @BradJonesJourn "freelance journalist" "ex football intermediary" "secret agent" accounts coming out in force just cobbing made up sht at the wall. Lots of sad little prcks desperate to be Fabrizio Romano, who himself just sweeps the seabed for other people's stories and then shouts HERE WE GO as the official press release is issued.
This post has been edited by an administrator
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Summer Transfer Rumours on 17:21 - May 31 with 5872 views
Summer Transfer Rumours on 17:18 - May 31 by Northernr
It wouldn't surprise me. The Sheff Wed message board (I think it was them) managed to get them linked with a player who didn't even exist a few summers back as an experiment into this. You're already seeing all the @BradJonesJourn "freelance journalist" "ex football intermediary" "secret agent" accounts coming out in force just cobbing made up sht at the wall. Lots of sad little prcks desperate to be Fabrizio Romano, who himself just sweeps the seabed for other people's stories and then shouts HERE WE GO as the official press release is issued.
This post has been edited by an administrator
Come on Clive, Leicester would cook with Chair as a false 9 pivot winger
Bare bones.
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Summer Transfer Rumours on 17:32 - May 31 with 5809 views
I think Skysports were the original ketchup on this one (not that is any better) any way good lets drum up some business and see if we can get Sheff Utd or Luton to take an expensive bite
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Summer Transfer Rumours on 20:51 - May 31 with 5173 views
Summer Transfer Rumours on 20:14 - May 31 by baz_qpr
I think Skysports were the original ketchup on this one (not that is any better) any way good lets drum up some business and see if we can get Sheff Utd or Luton to take an expensive bite
Luton will be smart and buy players who are top in the champ so, that when they come down they will be ready to bounce back up.
And they need more playmakers as well as defenders. Chair is exactly the sort of player they will be after and Willock.
What will be interesting is I doubt Luton will buy anyone from the Prem-relegated clubs. And not everyone snaps up the talent as it leaves the Prem.
It seems no one in the Prem likes Sarr of Watford and I don't blame them, he can be quite lazy at times. And the days of him tearing Liverpool apart are long gone.
zzzzzzzzzz
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Summer Transfer Rumours on 21:23 - May 31 with 5043 views
Thanks i hadnt read that article this year and it only serves to reinforce my optimism and reassuringly matches closely the numbers I’ve used. Firstly it says we have £4.5m we can lose this coming season year. £300k higher than I said actually.
The article says we need to make £10m of savings I said we need to make £6m of savings. This difference between that can be partly be found in Dorsett’s I think overly conservative view of the Beale and co’s compensation and my over stating of the world cup money received where it says:
“QPR have already received some additional revenue this season. Hopefully the compensation received from Rangers for Michael Beale and from FIFA for Ilias Chair and Seny Dieng being called up to the World Cup has not been completely swallowed up by the compensation paid to Neil Critchley and Wycombe Wanderers for Gareth Ainsworth”
Firstly the manager’s merry-go-round part I ignored so far. Instead taking the view that the compensation we would have received for Beale, Banfield, Watling and Damian Matthew. Was balanced out against what we paid out for Critchely and his plus two and Ainsworth and Dobson. Also I think in reality the Beale and co compensation gets paid in one lump but the Critchely and Ainsworth deal will be spread out over their contract. So this year we are in the black there alone.
The world cup appearance fees I misremembered and have significantly overstated. Just checked and we got around £500k there.
Dorset predicts we need to save £10m to meet FFP. I said £4m. Its probably more like £8.5m after manager swap and world cup money. That’s before you take Eze add on money yet to be paid into account. Firstly he was understandably more pessimistic at that time about a sell on fee then now seems possible. Saying:
“A big money move for Eze from Palace and subsequent sell-on fee looks less likely too as he is struggling to hold down a first team place at the moment”
But he also ignores the reported £4m off add ons which is a pretty massive part to overlook. At least part of this looks like its coming next month. And then any appearance related or goals related trigger has surely now been triggered as he finished this season on 10 goals and their top scorer. So I cant see how after the England game that isn’t £4m secured. And if in the unlikely event Eze is sold then we get start getting the cheque book out already!!
So after the Eze money we probably need around £4.5m in further savings. The article references if we are to extend contracts on likes of Dickie and Dykes that makes things better for us further on amortisation which I hadn’t considered making further savings. Pushing that £4.5m lower still.
Then player math, I believe savings would have been made in shifting who we have Gray, Austin, even Bonne partially vs who we replaced them with pushes us closer still to the £4.5m in further savings needed to get to the £4.5m loss the article says we can have.
One or likely each of Chair Willock and Dieng will be sold this year. Maye Dykes too. Shifting some of the higher wage earners off our books and bringing in a some very chunky fees.
I just don’t see a world where we don’t comfortably make FFP. Then head into next season after that with the 20/21 blowout behind us, a new Sky deal and a significant chunk of headroom in front of us.
It will be tough next year but lets be optimistic!!!! Ease up on the self loathing!!
[Post edited 31 May 2023 21:27]
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Summer Transfer Rumours on 21:26 - May 31 with 5050 views
So, in short, an estimated reduction in loss of £10m from this season just finished to next season to not fail FFP next year (which wouldn’t be published, and therefore punished, until the following spring 2025).
To achieve that £10m reduction/improvement in our loss, we will need to sell and we’re not going to be signing much unless Newcastle get out the cheque book with the nice pen for Eze.
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Summer Transfer Rumours on 22:27 - May 31 with 4862 views
Summer Transfer Rumours on 21:26 - May 31 by Hunterhoop
So, in short, an estimated reduction in loss of £10m from this season just finished to next season to not fail FFP next year (which wouldn’t be published, and therefore punished, until the following spring 2025).
To achieve that £10m reduction/improvement in our loss, we will need to sell and we’re not going to be signing much unless Newcastle get out the cheque book with the nice pen for Eze.
Exactly. Which is why it will be free transfers. The concern is you wont replace the quality of Chair etc with free transfers. Long hard couple of seasons ahead.
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Summer Transfer Rumours on 07:54 - Jun 1 with 4269 views
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