| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 16:29 - Nov 4 with 26554 views | robith |
Hello Fellow Rs,
Some of you may remember from years gone by I have run a thread where we track our chances of making promotion, and inevitably how many points we need to avoid relegation.
I had to stop making it just before COVID, as I had my laptop stolen which had the valuable excel sheet stuck on it.
Well, what I can tell you is OneDrive is a magical thing. It has been in the cloud all this time!
I have fixed it up and updated it for the season to date, so prepare to join me on the journey!
Historical Precedent
The average points needed to make the playoffs over the last 7 years is 75
The average points needed to avoid relegation over the last 7 years is 46
Handily the median for both is also 75 and 46, meaning there isn't one season warping our numbers
Plays offs there fore = 1.57 points per game
Survival = 0.97 points per game
Our current trajectory is 1.562 PPG, with a forecast points total of 72
If we convert this to an index, where 1 is hitting the target needed
Play Off Index 0.99
Survival Index 1.61
We are in an around the PPG total we need, but our current points trajectory only gets us to the play offs once in the last 7 years.
Now obviously we need a real world comparison too. Usually around the half way point of the season when the table is a bit more fixed, I'll start to compare each week vs the team in 6th and 21st and their trajectory.
Bossing last season, though obviously we had a pretty rough 1st half of the season
This shows our forecast points based on PPG by week and where it would've got us last season. As you can see historically we'd need to get just a little better to get over 75 to be in with a shot
TL;DR - we're in the mix for sure, but at the 5/6th marker rather than guaranteed play offs.
I'll update weekly(ish) [Post edited 8 Nov 2021 10:32]
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 06:51 - Nov 6 with 4106 views | saxbend |
Now that's what I call stats. Can't get enough of this stuff.
Give me the Geometric mean, Variance, Spearman's Rank, I want it all! |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:33 - Nov 8 with 3930 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 17:14 - Nov 5 by kensalriser |
I'm sure I'm being dense, but if the y axis on the second chart is total points, how can it decrease in places? |
a vlookup misbehaving! (or...I didn't dollar the selection range) that chart has been fixed now | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:39 - Nov 8 with 3918 views | robith |
I'll leave the update for this week - the numbers are hilarious when you are the measure you're measuring against
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 22:26 - Nov 24 with 3713 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
We must have severely increased this surely! |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 22:45 - Nov 24 with 3621 views | Jigsore |
i remember the previous iteration of this thread being far more busy when we were on the other end of the table  |  |
| “The thing about football - the important thing about football - is that it is not just about football.†|
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:50 - Nov 25 with 3365 views | robith |
An update that gives me great pleasure to write
Play Off Index: 102
Survival Index: 174
Is that clear air I see?
Bossing last year
On track with current trajectories too
For the first time since the data stabilised, our forecast points would've had us finish in the play offs last season.
B.E.L.I.E.V.E | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:57 - Nov 25 with 3346 views | robith |
Worth adding, we're currently at the points total we had on the 6th Feb last year.
Given we have basically the squad from then onwards now, one would hope we could replicate that form again.
We're closing in on the half way point in the season. I think if we can maintain what we're doing, we are in with a very serious chance of making the play offs | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:33 - Nov 25 with 3266 views | toboboly |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:57 - Nov 25 by robith |
Worth adding, we're currently at the points total we had on the 6th Feb last year.
Given we have basically the squad from then onwards now, one would hope we could replicate that form again.
We're closing in on the half way point in the season. I think if we can maintain what we're doing, we are in with a very serious chance of making the play offs |
This is me getting giddy but can you add a line for automatic.....? |  |
| Sexy Asian dwarves wanted. |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:55 - Nov 25 with 3234 views | SuffolkHoop |
Still seems tight around the playoffs though. Are a few teams doing 'above trend' this season? |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:01 - Nov 25 with 3219 views | kensalriser |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:33 - Nov 25 by toboboly |
This is me getting giddy but can you add a line for automatic.....? |
Had a look at that last night. To reach the required two points per game we’d need to win the next 6 games, which would put us on 50 from 25. I’ll leave others to consider the likelihood of that. |  |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:04 - Nov 25 with 3140 views | loftus77 |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:57 - Nov 25 by robith |
Worth adding, we're currently at the points total we had on the 6th Feb last year.
Given we have basically the squad from then onwards now, one would hope we could replicate that form again.
We're closing in on the half way point in the season. I think if we can maintain what we're doing, we are in with a very serious chance of making the play offs |
Partypooper alert - I guess we started later, calendar-wise, in 20/21 (Sep 12) so everything 'shifted to the right?'. But, as you say, it all still looks very good and thank you for such a rosy analysis.
Can't help nothing that a team from Hounslow (where are they now?) had 32 points after 19 games last year.... |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:04 - Nov 25 with 3140 views | loftus77 |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:57 - Nov 25 by robith |
Worth adding, we're currently at the points total we had on the 6th Feb last year.
Given we have basically the squad from then onwards now, one would hope we could replicate that form again.
We're closing in on the half way point in the season. I think if we can maintain what we're doing, we are in with a very serious chance of making the play offs |
Partypooper alert - I guess we started later, calendar-wise, in 20/21 (Sep 12) so everything 'shifted to the right?'. But, as you say, it all still looks very good and thank you for such a rosy analysis.
Can't help noting that a team from Hounslow (where are they now?) had 32 points after 19 games last year.... | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:18 - Nov 25 with 3119 views | T_Block |
So the conclusion is we will finish 7th? as it stands.
But I think that Huddersfield game means we have beaten most other contenders? | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:08 - Nov 25 with 3054 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:04 - Nov 25 by loftus77 |
Partypooper alert - I guess we started later, calendar-wise, in 20/21 (Sep 12) so everything 'shifted to the right?'. But, as you say, it all still looks very good and thank you for such a rosy analysis.
Can't help nothing that a team from Hounslow (where are they now?) had 32 points after 19 games last year.... |
so it's done by game week (i.e our number match in the season), rather than by actual date
So we're currently on a points total in GW19 that we got to in GW27 last season | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:09 - Nov 25 with 3053 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:18 - Nov 25 by T_Block |
So the conclusion is we will finish 7th? as it stands.
But I think that Huddersfield game means we have beaten most other contenders? |
At the moment we're tracking for bang on 6th | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:14 - Nov 25 with 3042 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:55 - Nov 25 by SuffolkHoop |
Still seems tight around the playoffs though. Are a few teams doing 'above trend' this season? |
Well, it's still a small sample and it will mature throughout the season, but the current historical trend point would be 28 points, and at the moment you could have 27 points and be 11th! | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:20 - Nov 25 with 3030 views | SuffolkHoop |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:14 - Nov 25 by robith |
Well, it's still a small sample and it will mature throughout the season, but the current historical trend point would be 28 points, and at the moment you could have 27 points and be 11th! |
Looking at League One and Two, also 24 team leagues... 32 points after 19 games won't be much better than QPR today, if at all. | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 22:15 - Nov 29 with 2834 views | robith |
We're gonna need another line... | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 00:33 - Nov 30 with 2621 views | TomS |
Putting things in perspective, I know it's still November, but we still haven't passed the 46 point mark which would normally be the cut off mark for relegation.  |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 09:45 - Nov 30 with 2325 views | toboboly |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 22:15 - Nov 29 by robith |
We're gonna need another line... |
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| Sexy Asian dwarves wanted. |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:31 - Dec 1 with 2113 views | robith |
I've added automatic in, and in index terms we're closer than I thought we'd be on historical norms.
On current season trends though, Fulham and Bournemouth are both trending in and around a 96 point finish, which we're miles off
Automatic Index: 0.94
Playoff Index 1.11
Survival Index 1.80
But, we've hit the heady heights of a forecast points total that would've had us 4th last season
Personally it looks very much like the top 2 will walk automatic, but for us, this last week saw the chasing pack drop off a bit and give us a bit of clean air
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:39 - Dec 1 with 2089 views | dmm |
Fantastic work, Robith. Love these charts. |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:43 - Dec 1 with 2079 views | nix |
Thanks Robith.
Loving the number crunching. |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:02 - Dec 1 with 2034 views | Maggsinho |
Great stuff.
How much have we closed the gap on Bournemouth recently? Must be a few points.
I see they're playing at Fulham on Saturday so if they lost that and we beat Stoke - neither beyond the realms of possibility - it puts us only four points behind. Could set up the game on the 27th rather nicely. |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:13 - Dec 1 with 1994 views | ozranger |
I know it may be a big ask Robith, but have you taken into account home v away. That is, given we have already done the away trips to the top 2 plus 4th, that may effect the figures as one would expect a better performance at home. How you factor that in, I am unsure. |  | | |
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